Will Buffalo be a good place to see the total eclipse of the sun?

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

NT mentioned it's clear in WNY. My part of PA is socked in by clouds. I think this phenomenon is what I was asking about in the initial post...

For anyone worried about clouds, check out what happened at Homestead National Monument in 2017:

I recently read an article that said certain cloud formations will dissipate during an eclipse...so you might get a wonderful view even if it appears to be cloudy conditions.  

[#freejame]

58 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I know it is a once in a 100 years event, but all these viewing parties, stores closing, schools shutdown, daily non-stop talk about it on the news…can’t wait for it to be over. 
 

I will be standing in my backyard, or even just watching through my living room patio door.  Woohoo…it will go from light to dark to light, kind of like what it does every day. 

Not every day does a gapping hole appear in the sky where the sun should be. Everyone should be afforded the opportunity to see it. 

[Weave]

Here’s an article for you, PA.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2024/04/01/total-solar-eclipse-why-lake-erie-and-lake-ontario-are-good-choices/amp/

[That Aud Smell]

NWS nerds weigh in, preliminarily.

[Stoner]

Yup for the first time in the four weeks I've been watching the forecasts we have a mostly sunny call here, too. Granted the one I've mainly been watching has been Accuweather, which has had "clouds giving way to sun" from the git go (but just turned to partial sunshine apparently today).

Semantics.

[Stoner]

Actually this forecast from the feds fits nicely into my long held belief that the government forecast is a psych ops deal wherein the masses are motivated to keep workin for the weekend and to not off themselves. The actual weather in the next few days will be downright depressing for this time of year. But hold on, folks. Here comes the sun after that. Bad news for eclipsers: it usually doesn't come in a forecast like this.

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Actually this forecast from the feds fits nicely into my long held belief that the government forecast is a psych ops deal wherein the masses are motivated to keep workin for the weekend and to not off themselves. The actual weather in the next few days will be downright depressing for this time of year. But hold on, folks. Here comes the sun after that. Bad news for eclipsers: it usually doesn't come in a forecast like this.

Not to throw shade on your eclipse, but it only takes one stupid cumulus cloud in the wrong place in an otherwise sunny sky for 2-ish minutes to ruin your five hour drive. I'll be fine with my 85% coverage.

[#freejame]

40 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Not to throw shade on your eclipse, but it only takes one stupid cumulus cloud in the wrong place in an otherwise sunny sky for 2-ish minutes to ruin your five hour drive. I'll be fine with my 85% coverage.

No it doesn’t. This is from 2017. Plenty of cloud cover then. We sunk way more than a 5 hour drive into it and it was worth every second. 

[That Aud Smell]

18 hours ago, SwampD said:

Not to throw shade on your eclipse, but it only takes one stupid cumulus cloud in the wrong place in an otherwise sunny sky for 2-ish minutes to ruin your five hour drive. I'll be fine with my 85% coverage.

If present, traditional low-lying cumulus clouds would most likely dissipate during the full solar eclipse.

https://www.space.com/total-solar-eclipse-low-level-clouds-vanish

Based on listening to and reading stuff from meteorologists, I offer the following: The big cloud enemies here would be nimbostratus (which are generally rain clouds) and stratocumulus. Nimbostratus would be the worst. It doesn't look like we're getting those, though. The clouds that we've been talking about here - stratocumulus - are the ones that just "show up" sometimes around the Great Lakes. It's got something to do with air temps, water temps, wind direction, and such. Stratocumulus clouds don't bring rain - they just obscure the sun. If stratocumulus do show up, there'd still be a chance that they break up in spots and allow some viewing.

Fingers crossed. Hope for the best.

[That Aud Smell]

Excerpt from NWS Forecast Discussion today:

At this range however, uncertainty is very high in the amount of total cloud cover and how it will be structured, especially across Western NY. Long-range guidance suggests increasing mid and/or high clouds* increasing from west to east through the day.

*"High Clouds" -- These clouds have bases between 16,500 and 45,000 feet in the mid latitudes. At this level they are composed of primarily of ice crystals. Some clouds at this level are cirrus, cirrocumulus, and cirrostratus

+++

Notably, I don't see mention of stratocumulus clouds (nor, certainly, nimbostratus).

 

[That Aud Smell]

This article has a terrific review of clouds relative to solar eclipse events.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/03/26/clouds-could-block-the-april-2024-solar-eclipse-forecast-guide/72934623007/

And this graphic is spiffy.

If we're getting high clouds, that won't be so bad.

Edited April 2 by That Aud Smell

[Stoner]

Annnnnd the forecast starts to fall apart.

I'm shocked.

That nice weekend you were working for... Now, meh.

[#freejame]

19 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Annnnnd the forecast starts to fall apart.

I'm shocked.

That nice weekend you were working for... Now, meh.

The weather will be the weather. I brought a tent in 2017 for the dogs and will be doing so again this year for the baby. Worst case I stand in my raincoat in some crummy weather for five minutes. As for the viewing, I have it on good authority that it will be fine. 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Annnnnd the forecast starts to fall apart.

I'm shocked.

That nice weekend you were working for... Now, meh.

Sunday looks pleasant.

The NWS is holding steady on its forecast for Monday.

Edit: Faaaaahhhk. Fahk.

Edited April 3 by That Aud Smell

[That Aud Smell]

Forecast discussion:

Dry conditions are expected for Saturday night through most of Monday as an area of high pressure and ridge builds into the region.

Monday afternoon into Tuesday still remains uncertain as a large trough to the west tries to undercut the ridge moving across the CONUS associated with an Omega block. Guidance has been back and forth with if the trough and a weak low at the sfc and aloft will move close enough to the region to increase the potential for some showers for later Monday afternoon. This also would increase cloud potential as well. Current forecast for Monday afternoon bring slight chance for showers into far western NY, with broken cloud cover over WNY and decreasing cloud cover to the northeast. Being 5+ days out, a lot can change either way.

+++

Fingers remain crossed.

[Stoner]

45 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Forecast discussion:

Dry conditions are expected for Saturday night through most of Monday as an area of high pressure and ridge builds into the region.

Monday afternoon into Tuesday still remains uncertain as a large trough to the west tries to undercut the ridge moving across the CONUS associated with an Omega block. Guidance has been back and forth with if the trough and a weak low at the sfc and aloft will move close enough to the region to increase the potential for some showers for later Monday afternoon. This also would increase cloud potential as well. Current forecast for Monday afternoon bring slight chance for showers into far western NY, with broken cloud cover over WNY and decreasing cloud cover to the northeast. Being 5+ days out, a lot can change either way.

+++

Fingers remain crossed.

Don't you see how they want to be people influencers? This far out they shouldn't be massaging the forecast to make it sound like if there are showers it will be two hours after the eclipse.

I imagine that pressure comes externally to not discourage all those tourists from coming to Buffalo.

Tom Jolls, I see you.

Edited April 3 by PASabreFan

[That Aud Smell]

35 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Don't you see how they want to be people influencers?

The NWS guys and gals are straight up nerds. No commerce is involved in their nerding.

[Stoner]

3 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The NWS guys and gals are straight up nerds. No commerce is involved in their nerding.

Nothing odd about introducing the chance of rain five days out but only a short time after an event expected to draw many people to the area? Any weather forecaster will tell you you can't be that specific so far out.

[Weave]

41 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Nothing odd about introducing the chance of rain five days out but only a short time after an event expected to draw many people to the area? Any weather forecaster will tell you you can't be that specific so far out.

The forecast discussion page on the NWS site is literally just that, a discussion.  Sometimes the forecasters contradict each other based on their reading of the model ouputs.  There was a meteorologist that retired last year, I think, that was particularly open in his discussions.

That is a nerd page.

[Stoner]

Monday's turning into one of those huge moments in Buffalo sports.

Win the next to last game on Sunday.

The biggie on Monday? Not so much.

Edited April 4 by PASabreFan

[Stoner]

I've studied various forecasts and read NWS discussion pages from State College, Erie and Buffalo. The cloud forecast is literally all over the map.

Instead of converging, outlooks seem to be diverging.

[That Aud Smell]

11 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I've studied various forecasts and read NWS discussion pages from State College, Erie and Buffalo. The cloud forecast is literally all over the map.

Instead of converging, outlooks seem to be diverging.

I agree. It's a little maddening. I guess it goes to show how tricky it is to forecast cloud cover when presented with certain forecast conditions.

[That Aud Smell]

Just checked my anticipated sky cover per the NWS. Things are trending the wrong way. And now they've gone from saying high-level clouds to saying mid-level clouds. Fingers crossed, I guess.

On 4/4/2024 at 10:31 AM, PASabreFan said:

Monday's turning into one of those huge moments in Buffalo sports.

Win the next to last game on Sunday.

The biggie on Monday? Not so much.

There's a cruel irony being teed up.

[Weave]

47 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Just checked my anticipated sky cover per the NWS. Things are trending the wrong way. And now they've gone from saying high-level clouds to saying mid-level clouds. Fingers crossed, I guess.

There's a cruel irony being teed up.

Because Buffalo.

[K-9]

Buffalo certainly won’t be the only place marred by cloud cover for the eclipse, as most of the center of totality in the US has clouds in the forecast. While not optimal, it doesn’t have to run the event for people.