Thorner Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 (edited) 1 hour ago, inkman said: No they won’t be. Every single team ahead of them has games in hand. You are counting on 5 teams losing all their games in the next week and then the Sabres still need to win another 10 games with only one or two losses. Delusional. We can start with winning our next 5 games and pushing this streak to a 6 gamer. At that point if we get lucky 91 makes it (with our tiebreaker) and 8-4 over the final 12 id call doable given the kind of play we’d be seeing. So we’d need to go 8-4 (what are the odds?) and then probably a 50/50 shot at best 91 gets in. We’d need those 2 things to happen but I’d call them “possible”. There would he belief there, however unlikely. But there’s no belief without that 5 game win streak, better start there. And it’s the hardest of the 3 to accomplish We assuredly can’t lose 2 games in the next 5. 4-1 is the bare minimum. 2 losses in the next stretch would have us needing like 10-2 to wrap up, but realistically, 11-1. Not gonna happen. They have to go 4-1 over next 5, minimum Edited March 12 by Thorny Quote
K-9 Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 8 hours ago, Stads said: If we win all 3 this week, what could that become? Depends entirely on what all the teams above us in the standings do. Quote
Doohicksie Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 2 minutes ago, K-9 said: Depends entirely on what all the teams above us in the standings do. If the Sabres won all three this week it would mean of the teams above us lost at least two and another lost at least one. 😉 1 Quote
ska-T Chitown Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 37 minutes ago, Thorny said: What are the odds we can go 11-3 after doing so? That’s probably about what the math would tell you we can only afford to give away 6 more points this season over the remaining 17 games, if the cut off stays at 93 It could potentially fall, but it wouldn’t be more than a point or 2 If we win the next 3 we’d have to go at least at least 10-4. But that probably doesn’t get us in Do those fancy websites say how they figure it out? I remember watching the Bills "odds" and it seemed sorta straight forward, but there were only like 4 teams in it at that point. If all they do is just put together every possible permutation of every meaningful game into W/L/OT simulation and the Sabres make it over the line 14 times for every 1000 simulations, I gotta say that sounds sorta high? If it is based on any sort of trends or statistical analysis of the season, then saying a team that has barely made it to 0.500 on the season can play 0.823 from here to the end ... 14/1000 seems REALLY high, lol. No data was harmed in the typing of these opinions. 1 Quote
Thorner Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 A good place to start: Sabres win their next 3 Islanders lose an additional time in that frame, to the Senators Detroit loses to Arizona in that time frame With those 5 results breaking our way: NY lslanders 66gp, 72 points Detroit Red Wings 67gp, 72 points Buffalo Sabres 68gp, 71 points Quote
ska-T Chitown Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 1 minute ago, Thorny said: A good place to start: Sabres win their next 3 Islanders lose an additional time in that frame, to the Senators Detroit loses to Arizona in that time frame With those 5 results breaking our way: NY lslanders 66gp, 72 points Detroit Red Wings 67gp, 72 points Buffalo Sabres 68gp, 71 points not gonna lie, it moved when i read that ... 2 Quote
Thorner Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 (edited) 8 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said: not gonna lie, it moved when i read that ... Caps go 1-2 (@Oilers @Kraken @Canucks) Devils go 1-1 (@stars @coyotes) - - - NY lslanders 66gp, 72 points Detroit Red Wings 67gp, 72 points Washington Caps 66gp, 71 points Buffalo Sabres 68gp, 71 points NJ Devils 67gp, 68 points Edited March 12 by Thorny Quote
ska-T Chitown Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 1 minute ago, Thorny said: Caps go 1-2 (@Oilers @Kraken @Canucks) Devils go 1-1 (@stars @coyotes) - - - NY lslanders 66gp, 72 points Detroit Red Wings 67gp, 72 points Washington Caps 66gp, 71 points Buffalo Sabres 68gp, 71 points NJ Devils 67gp, 68 points My work computer won't let me do gifs, but I promise you that Daffy Duck one (you know the one) belongs in any response to your post. 1 1 Quote
Thorner Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 5 minutes ago, Thorny said: Caps go 1-2 (@Oilers @Kraken @Canucks) Devils go 1-1 (@stars @coyotes) - - - NY lslanders 66gp, 72 points Detroit Red Wings 67gp, 72 points Washington Caps 66gp, 71 points Buffalo Sabres 68gp, 71 points NJ Devils 67gp, 68 points If 5 results break our way, and the caps go 1-2 and NJ 1-1…so let’s say 6 results (I think 1-1 from each caps and NJ would be the fair default so, add 1 for the extra caps loss we need) and those are the standings on Saturday night Quote
Thorner Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 (edited) 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x. 1/2 = 1/64 =1.6% Moneypuck had us at 1.4%. Dunno if they calculate it as simple as I did but, back of napkin seems to line up Actually, the odds should be worse as you point out @ska-T Chitownas that 1/64 run more less gets us into a toss up with those teams Edited March 12 by Thorny 1 Quote
thewookie1 Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 All that matters at this time is winning the next 3 games in regulation. You do that and with a bit of realistic help we can be breathing down their necks. Also I feel Washington will drop off some 1 Quote
Thorner Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 As many wins over remaining games as left shots in the lineup and we make the playoffs Quote
#freejame Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 51 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said: My work computer won't let me do gifs, but I promise you that Daffy Duck one (you know the one) belongs in any response to your post. 1 Quote
DarthEbriate Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 2 minutes ago, Night Train said: Win so I can avoid the usual reaction.. Well... the Sabres ratings are down, but TV sales are through the roof. 1 Quote
Pimlach Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 Good evening Teammates, Punch checking in. Been looking forward to this one. If these two teams can figure it out this could be a real rivalry someday. Patty Kane comes home. Let’s keep him off the board. MUSCLE WEIGHT Quote
Thorner Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 Oh god, the Dunleavy feed on sportsnet in Canada 1 Quote
sweetlou Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 got a feeling about this one, 7-2 Sabres Thompson x2, Dahlin, JJP, Jost, Skinner, and Byram with goals. 2 Quote
Second Line Center Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 Time to man the ***k up. Statement needs to be made. Quote
bob_sauve28 Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 Maybe Tuch's injury was a lower body injury, knee or something, and now he is healthy? Quote
Spoonman Posted March 12 Report Posted March 12 Out of the mists of time....a utensil arises.... Good Evening Children of the Sword! ⚔️ 1 Quote
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