Sabres Trade Erik Johnson to Philadelphia for a 2024 4th Round Pick

[inkman]

6 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I have no horse in the race between the two of you, but googled this because I am bored at work:

So, a 4th round pick (between 2000 and 2009) had a 22% chance of playing 100 or more games in the NHL. Note there is no weight for how good those games were 🙂 

 

The source is not some super math think tank, but the math seems to check out: https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

No idea why our numbers from the same site differ so much😀. Maybe an older article (probably by me). 

[L Ron Burgundy]

24 minutes ago, Sabres73 said:

Your lack of hockey knowledge is ...... something. I made an obvious point to your obvious dumb comment.

No.  You threw out exceptions to the rule.  Outliers.  Iirc it's about a 10% chance for a 4th liner to play 100 nhl games.  So just about the same chance as the Sabres making the playoffs this decade.   Like I said.

Look I admire your enthusiasm (delusion) and apparent optimism (completely misplaced).  This deadline, barring a late miracle, is further demonstrating we still don't have the correct leadership team in place for this team.  I'm pretty sure we are the worst team in the league over the past 10 years.  It's a complete shite show.

3 minutes ago, inkman said:

No idea why our numbers from the same site differ so much😀. Maybe an older article (probably by me). 

I saw your numbers.  There used to be better sources for this but I can't find them now.

[ska-T Palmtown]

Just now, inkman said:

No idea why our numbers from the same site differ so much😀. Maybe an older article (probably by me). 

I saw that one too! The pie (mmmm...pie) chart says that of the 598 players during that time who played 100 or more games, 10.9% came from the 2nd round.

The graph says (but not specifically) that of the 9 yrs and 30 players per year drafted in round 2, 22% made the NHL for 100+ games.

Math check ... 10.9% of 598 is ~65 young folks and 22% of 270 is ... (drumroll) 59. Honestly those two numbers are shockingly close for some rando internet site that happened to be the first result in both our googles.

[Berg]

Worst trades ever

[inkman]

1 minute ago, Berg said:

Worst trades ever

Not really.  Underwhelmed but expected.  This team is going to suck until we’re all dead. 

[L Ron Burgundy]

I think it says a lot about the organization that a dude is trying to get himself psyched about a 4th round pick.  We need a bolt of energy for this team.  Seriously,  F Adams.   

[inkman]

1 minute ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I think it says a lot about the organization that a dude is trying to get himself psyched about a 4th round pick.  We need a bolt of energy for this team.  Seriously,  F Adams.   

Byrum is someone to get excited about. If your soul hasn’t been sucked clean by this disaster franchise.  Getting a 4th round pick  for a player that played himself out of THIS lineup is something. 

[PerreaultForever]

59 minutes ago, inkman said:

Other than acquiring Risto in the first place.  

Which was Cliff Fletcher. 

[L Ron Burgundy]

2 minutes ago, inkman said:

Byrum is someone to get excited about. If your soul hasn’t been sucked clean by this disaster franchise.  Getting a 4th round pick  for a player that played himself out of THIS lineup is something. 

I'm fine with both, my point was a 4th has very little chance to help.  I would have liked a throw in just based on Casey being a C but overall...sure, fine.  We waived the white flag on this season despite being so close last year.  F'n unacceptable.   Why not use our cap space???   So many players moved that could help us.  Now and later.

There is no end in sight to this disaster.   I cannot believe people pay to watch this team, theres no excitement. 

[Getpucksdeep]

3 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

This is the biggest horse 💩 fallacy in hockey. Every team in the league has veterans that have won in the past. They can't all win.

The team with the most heart and talent is the one that wins. Both of these traits cannot be taught.

Dahlin has a lot of heart and talent.  It's not going so well at this point in his career.  Blame the rest of the roster and the GM and Coach?  Ok.
Leadership and IQ matter as well.  EJ, from my ~70 game view, had both.  I'm not saying Dahlin can't continue to grow. And I think Power has the brain, he's just not well coached.  On to next season.

[MattPie]

2 hours ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I saw that one too! The pie (mmmm...pie) chart says that of the 598 players during that time who played 100 or more games, 10.9% came from the 2nd round.

You rang?

[JoeSchmoe]

31 minutes ago, Getpucksdeep said:

Dahlin has a lot of heart and talent.  It's not going so well at this point in his career.  Blame the rest of the roster and the GM and Coach?  Ok.
Leadership and IQ matter as well.  EJ, from my ~70 game view, had both.  I'm not saying Dahlin can't continue to grow. And I think Power has the brain, he's just not well coached.  On to next season.

If we had a team full of Dahlin's we'd be planning the parade now. We suck because he's the only one we got with both heart and talent. 

You'll be hard pressed to find anyone that agrees with you about EJ.  He was terrible through and through. Eye test. Old fashioned stats. Advanced stats. He was a drag on CO when they didn't resign him, he was a drag on us, now he's Philly's problem.

[Getpucksdeep]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

If we had a team full of Dahlin's we'd be planning the parade now. We suck because he's the only one we got with both heart and talent. 

You'll be hard pressed to find anyone that agrees with you about EJ.  He was terrible through and through. Eye test. Old fashioned stats. Advanced stats. He was a drag on CO when they didn't resign him, he was a drag on us, now he's Philly's problem.

Right, he looked like a 6/7 d exactly as expected.  

[Stoner]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

If we had a team full of Dahlin's we'd be planning the parade now. We suck because he's the only one we got with both heart and talent. 

You'll be hard pressed to find anyone that agrees with you about EJ.  He was terrible through and through. Eye test. Old fashioned stats. Advanced stats. He was a drag on CO when they didn't resign him, he was a drag on us, now he's Philly's problem.

So beware Colorado castoffs?

[Brawndo]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Nope. Smart asset management by Philly showing you how to rebuild AND compete at the same time. Do not confuse the current Philly management with Cliff Fletcher.

Philly got Walker and his salary as a throw in salary dump last year, used him well and flipped him for a 1st rounder and then tossed a 4th away for a temp fill in while Seeler, Ristolainen and Drysdale are all injured because they are still in the hunt. So future and present at the same time. That, imo, is good management. 

Part of Philadelphia getting the First in exchange for Walker was taking Ryan Johansen as a cap dump. 
 

It’s a hell of a lot easier to make these moves when your owner is willing to spend the money to make it happen

[Brawndo]

18 hours ago, Billznut said:

And apparently for the second straight deadline, we refuse to use any of our available cap room, top 3 in the league, again, to facilitate any 3 way deals just to get free assets. Does anyone ever get the feeling we have a GM that doesn’t understand fully how to accomplish his job? Why in the world wouldn’t you use some of your tons of available cap room to get free future assets that could either miraculously pan out or be reused in future deals? 

The answer to your question is Terry Pegula. 

[SwampD]

26 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The answer to your question is Terry Pegula. 

This post gets a triple E rating.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

The answer to your question is Terry Pegula. 

I hope he sells the team. There's no leadership on this team or in the front office. Terry has never made the playoffs, he's the problem. 

[Flashsabre]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I hope he sells the team. There's no leadership on this team or in the front office. Terry has never made the playoffs, he's the problem. 

“Hello, It’s Terry, he’s the problem, it’s Terry”

I don’t care what Adams says, he is on a strict budget. The quality of the coaching staff is proof enough.

0 for 13 years as owner is just mind boggling. Why Pegula refuses to bring in vet, successful hockey people in the front office and behind the bench has killed them for 13 years.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I'm fine with both, my point was a 4th has very little chance to help.  I would have liked a throw in just based on Casey being a C but overall...sure, fine.  We waived the white flag on this season despite being so close last year.  F'n unacceptable.   Why not use our cap space???   So many players moved that could help us.  Now and later.

There is no end in sight to this disaster.   I cannot believe people pay to watch this team, theres no excitement. 

   I keep hearing the phrase 'weaponize cap space'.   Philly received a 2024 5th round to retain 25% of Hanifans salary.   That's an actual payment of $312,500 (1/4 of the season on $1.25M) for a 5th.  Whoop de do!   We don't need more draft picks. 

I think it's objectionably funny that a guy who is a Captain (read Leadership/Locker Room guy) who makes less than EJ and had arguably a much better on ice performance yielded significantly less return than Johnson whom we all saw struggle this season in Buffalo.   Maybe Philly did overpay. 

  And Zemgus - who has seen his fair share of support recently wasn't even seriously pursued.  Adams said their was interest, but I presume retaining 50% and receiving a 7th round pick isn't real interest.  All playoff contenders thought they could get more from their current 4th line role players.  If that's not enough to tell you to move on from a player, I'm not sure what is.  

 

[MattPie]

25 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

  And Zemgus - who has seen his fair share of support recently wasn't even seriously pursued.  Adams said their was interest, but I presume retaining 50% and receiving a 7th round pick isn't real interest.  All playoff contenders thought they could get more from their current 4th line role players.  If that's not enough to tell you to move on from a player, I'm not sure what is. 

Hold on there: NHL All-Star Zemgus certainly bumps the trade value some.

[matter2003]

On 3/8/2024 at 3:14 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Nope. Smart asset management by Philly showing you how to rebuild AND compete at the same time. Do not confuse the current Philly management with Cliff Fletcher.

Philly got Walker and his salary as a throw in salary dump last year, used him well and flipped him for a 1st rounder and then tossed a 4th away for a temp fill in while Seeler, Ristolainen and Drysdale are all injured because they are still in the hunt. So future and present at the same time. That, imo, is good management. 

Their chance to win the cup is near 0.  They just gave away a pick for a dude who has been terrible that could have helped their bottom 1/3 of the NHL prospect pool get better.

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Their chance to win the cup is near 0.  They just gave away a pick for a dude who has been terrible that could have helped their bottom 1/3 of the NHL prospect pool get better.

Well yes, they won't win the cup that's a no brainer BUT where I'd disagree with you is in their desire to make the playoffs, to WIN NOW, as they rebuild rather than just saying oh it's a "development year" we have long term plans be patient. 

He was a cheap available body to fill a hole while they have 3 guys on IR. At this deadline they upgraded their draft as a a whole and are trying to make the playoffs for this season, how can you find fault with that? Do you really want to argue that their rebuild has been less successful than ours this season? We SHOULD be WAY AHEAD of them but we are not. We are the clueless franchise, not them. 

[matter2003]

19 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well yes, they won't win the cup that's a no brainer BUT where I'd disagree with you is in their desire to make the playoffs, to WIN NOW, as they rebuild rather than just saying oh it's a "development year" we have long term plans be patient. 

He was a cheap available body to fill a hole while they have 3 guys on IR. At this deadline they upgraded their draft as a a whole and are trying to make the playoffs for this season, how can you find fault with that? Do you really want to argue that their rebuild has been less successful than ours this season? We SHOULD be WAY AHEAD of them but we are not. We are the clueless franchise, not them. 

At the end of the day, talent wins out.  It may take a little longer, but we have far more talent coming thru the pipeline than they do.  

Like the Bills in the mid 80s to late 80s...eventually all those HOF players they drafted just realized..."we are simply better than these other teams and we are going to kick your ass", and then they did. Sabres may not have any HOF players but they likely have a lot of really good ones.  Only a matter of time before they are simply better most nights than the teams they are playing.

 

[DarthEbriate]

5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

At the end of the day, talent wins out.  It may take a little longer, but we have far more talent coming thru the pipeline than they do.  

Like the Bills in the mid 80s to late 80s...eventually all those HOF players they drafted just realized..."we are simply better than these other teams and we are going to kick your ass", and then they did. Sabres may not have any HOF players but they likely have a lot of really good ones.  Only a matter of time before they are simply better most nights than the teams they are playing.

That's the hope. The problem is if that some of the talent demands trades (or is moved for contractual purposes) before that realization kicks in at the critical mass.