Ten points out, two games in hand, play Tampa last game of season and some of the teams ahead of are slumping. Is it really that impossible?

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

As of right now, there isn’t a team 8 or below that’s at 50% or above to make it. We are nearing closer to only being unlikely to make it because of “the field” collectively being an issue, but perhaps as likely to make it as any one other team 

ok

[PerreaultForever]

Pittsburgh, Tampa, NJ and even Washington all also winners tonight. 

[Night Train]

All the Sabres can do is keep winning games. Just like last year, they dug the hole prior and must hope for others to lose. 

[matter2003]

2 hours ago, Night Train said:

All the Sabres can do is keep winning games. Just like last year, they dug the hole prior and must hope for others to lose. 

Only good thing is they have 2 more games against the Wings and Caps, and 1 more against the Devils, Flyers and Lightning(last game of the regular season).  IMO, those are all almost must wins in regulation at this point.  Cannot afford to lose or give up any loser points to these teams.

[ska-T Chitown]

I wanted to do the actual math - or at least run every possible point scenario for games that matter between now and the end and see in how many of those the Sabres make the playoffs ... alas, there are 1.33E+39 possible point scenarios just involving 6 teams 😞

Tomorrow alone has 324 different, 5 games with 3 each (although when any of teams play each other, there are 4) is 3^5.

So, there are 82 games of interest, so 3^82 ... and that number is low because it does not do 4 for each head-to-head. I am guessing that either the professional folks use either full brute force and say in 3.2% of those 1.33 duodecillion (new word! how fun!) scenarios, Buffalo squeaks in? *or they have fancy probability models that look at other factors to greatly reduce the computing power needed.

Maybe I will try the next two days, lol.

Edited March 15 by ska-T Chitown
finished my thought

[Demoted]

It's too late. Everyone has been blaming coaching that is the one spot that has not changed. They will come back to being themselves soon enough. 

Edited March 16 by Demoted

[ska-T Chitown]

5 hours ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I wanted to do the actual math - or at least run every possible point scenario for games that matter between now and the end and see in how many of those the Sabres make the playoffs ... alas, there are 1.33E+39 possible point scenarios just involving 6 teams 😞

Tomorrow alone has 324 different, 5 games with 3 each (although when any of teams play each other, there are 4) is 3^5.

So, there are 82 games of interest, so 3^82 ... and that number is low because it does not do 4 for each head-to-head. I am guessing that either the professional folks use either full brute force and say in 3.2% of those 1.33 duodecillion (new word! how fun!) scenarios, Buffalo squeaks in? *or they have fancy probability models that look at other factors to greatly reduce the computing power needed.

Maybe I will try the next two days, lol.

So, I did some initial simple math, got sad, and stopped:

The Sabres have 15 games remaining; 3 outcomes per game means 3^15 possible scenarios ~=14.3M different W/L/OT combos.

In only 46189 of those scenarios does Buffalo earn 24 or more points (93 pts total) ... that is 0.3%

By contrast NYI earns at least 21 points in its remaining 17 games a whopping 26.2% of the time. (In a blast back to HS math, did anyone else realize there are 61880 ways for a team to go 12-3-2????? I had to look it up, it is factorials and all that fancy statistics math.) 

I would not even begin to imagine how to account for the 16 games the 6 teams in contention play against each other ... I am guessing it helps the Sabres somewhat by cutting out swaths of potential scenarios that cannot coexist. 

[Thorner]

24 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

So, I did some initial simple math, got sad, and stopped:

The Sabres have 15 games remaining; 3 outcomes per game means 3^15 possible scenarios ~=14.3M different W/L/OT combos.

In only 46189 of those scenarios does Buffalo earn 24 or more points (93 pts total) ... that is 0.3%

By contrast NYI earns at least 21 points in its remaining 17 games a whopping 26.2% of the time. (In a blast back to HS math, did anyone else realize there are 61880 ways for a team to go 12-3-2????? I had to look it up, it is factorials and all that fancy statistics math.) 

I would not even begin to imagine how to account for the 16 games the 6 teams in contention play against each other ... I am guessing it helps the Sabres somewhat by cutting out swaths of potential scenarios that cannot coexist. 

We’re in the endgame now 

[IKnowPhysics]

STRK W3

[Wyldnwoody44]

[JoeSchmoe]

With the Wash win last night, it looks like we might actually be chasing the Flyers and not the Caps. Chasing down Torts and the Flyers makes this more interesting to me.

[matter2003]

Still irritating to see the Flyers and Caps with negative goal differentials holding the last 2 playoff spots at -6 and -27 while the Sabres and Red Wings at +3 are both outside looking in right now.  Islanders also ahead of the Sabres at -20.  WTF...

[tom webster]

Just now, matter2003 said:

Still irritating to see the Flyers and Caps with negative goal differentials holding the last 2 playoff spots at -6 and -27 while the Sabres and Red Wings at +3 are both outside looking in right now.  Islanders also ahead of the Sabres at -20.  WTF...

I still think the Flyers are one of the teams that will fall out of the race. Trading them EJ was a 4D chess move and should be the grease that slide needed.

[MattPie]

This run is nice. The Sabres max for the season is 97 points. So they can lose maybe one and be relatively safe with 95 points. Lose 2, and it gets dicey with 93. The Caps are pacing for 92 points, and we all know how teams eek out a few extra points at the end of the season when playoffs are on the line.

[Doohicksie]

On the other hand.....

On 3/3/2024 at 3:17 PM, Doohickie said:

Dear Buffalo Sabres:  Watch Number 21 (starts from far left).  WATCH HIM.

 

[Doohicksie]

Rich Strike had a 1.25% chance to win (80:1 odds).

[shrader]

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

I still think the Flyers are one of the teams that will fall out of the race. Trading them EJ was a 4D chess move and should be the grease that slide needed.

How about the scenario where Tampa, Detroit, and Buffalo all finish ahead of the 3rd place metro team but one still misses out on the playoffs? That would make for some fun complaints. 

[MattPie]

13 minutes ago, shrader said:

How about the scenario where Tampa, Detroit, and Buffalo all finish ahead of the 3rd place metro team but one still misses out on the playoffs? That would make for some fun complaints. 

I remember for some season the Southeast winner (Washington?) was just barely ahead of the wildcard team, and no other Southeast team made it. Washinton was the 3rd seed, since division winners were seeded first at that point too. Fun times.

[GASabresIUFAN]

To get to 93 points, the Sabres need to go 10-1-2 or 11-2 the rest of the way. Given the way the Sabres are playing of late, I see 7 games the Sabres should win (WSH (2), Det, CGY, PHI, OTT & NJD). 
 

The good news for the Sabres is that Fla and TB may have already clinched playoff spots before we play them the last two games. That still leaves Van tonight, Edm, Tor and Dal.  We must find away to go 2-1-1 in these 4 games to have any sort of a chance.  It’s going to take an effort like we saw against Sea every night.

[Thorner]

Caps are pacing for 92 but they are pacing to be third in the metro, now. Philly is also pacing for 92, but we only need to pass one. 

(Plus islanders, Detroit obviously)

Upps the odds a little tho, because instead of needing a team pacing for 92 to drop back, it can be one of either of those 2 teams. 

Edited March 19 by Thorny

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

To get to 93 points, the Sabres need to go 10-1-2 or 11-2 the rest of the way. Given the way the Sabres are playing of late, I see 7 games the Sabres should win (WSH (2), Det, CGY, PHI, OTT & NJD). 
 

The good news for the Sabres is that Fla and TB may have already clinched playoff spots before we play them the last two games. That still leaves Van tonight, Edm, Tor and Dal.  We must find away to go 2-1-1 in these 4 games to have any sort of a chance.  It’s going to take an effort like we saw against Sea every night.

Washington also has a brutal schedule including very difficult travel. Philly schedule tough too. Ours doesn’t look as bad when you consider the thing you pointed out 

Edited March 19 by Thorny

[ska-T Chitown]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Washington also has a brutal schedule including very difficult travel. Philly schedule tough too. Ours doesn’t look as bad when you consider the thing you pointed out 

I threw this in the Around the NHL thread:

Obvi, it does not account for what teams will be giving what levels of effs when you play them, but does not paint a particularly rosy path to 8 for us.

[inkman]

19 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I threw this in the Around the NHL thread:

Obvi, it does not account for what teams will be giving what levels of effs when you play them, but does not paint a particularly rosy path to 8 for us.

The entire list is within 4% of SOS.  Not exactly a large difference.  The amount of games OTOH, is going to be a problem. 

[ska-T Chitown]

44 minutes ago, inkman said:

The entire list is within 4% of SOS.  Not exactly a large difference.  The amount of games OTOH, is going to be a problem. 

That is a pretty good point! I kinda get blinded by the three decimal places, but that third on is really just there for the ride.