Sabres have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL since January 1st

[Big Guava]

Kinda crazy as this team was horrible defensively and now has become mostly very good. They have only allowed 40 goals since January 1st, the best number in the NHL.

Their issue? They have sacrificed a LOT of offense to do it. They need to figure out how to do both at the same time.

Shots are about the same as last year on average but their shooting percentage has gone from 5th at 11.0% last year to 9.3% which is in the 20s this year. Is it a regression to the mean and last year was a career year for many players? Maybe. But almost 2% seems like a huge dropoff. More likely they will be somewhere around 10% most years which means they are underperforming this year in terms of scoring.

Seems this year a lot of chances they would have buried last year have stayed out of the net.

If they continue their defensive play and can figure out how to play offense this team could start making some noise. Maybe too late for this year but it would bode well for next year.

Edited February 24 by Big Guava

[Marvin]

4 minutes ago, Big Guava said:

Kinda crazy as this team was horrible defensively and now has become mostly very good. They have only allowed 40 goals since January 1st, the best number in the NHL.

Their issue? They have sacrificed a LOT of offense to do it. They need to figure out how to do both at the same time.

Shots are about the same as last year on average but their shooting percentage has gone from 5th at 11.0% last year to 9.3% which is in the 20s this year. Is it a regression to the mean and last year was a career year for many players? Maybe. But almost 2% seems like a huge dropoff. More likely they will be somewhere around 10% most years which means they are underperforming this year in terms of scoring.

Seems this year a lot of chances they would have buried last year have stayed out of the net.

If they continue their defensive play and can figure out how to play offense this team could start making some noise. Maybe too late for this year but it would bode well for next year.

Although this is a good stat, I wish that I could share your apparent optimism.

[Pimlach]

UPLs numbers since new years are better than Binington’s when he stood on his head and won a cup.  If this team could score goals they are in the race. 
 

UPL is looking good. 

Edited February 24 by Pimlach

[Big Guava]

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

UPLs numbers since new years are better than Binington’s when he stood on his head and won a cup.  If this team could score goals they are in the race. 
 

UPL is looking good. 

As is the team D...they are helping him out as well.

4 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Although this is a good stat, I wish that I could share your apparent optimism.

That they are playing good defensively?

[Pimlach]

Well a win on the road against the lowly Blue Jacks 

 

Clifton and Z get the goals.  UPL carrying the load. Dahlin tons of minutes again. 
 

Bring on the Canes.  

[pi2000]

They've also played the second fewest games, but yeah UPL is running hot which is nice to see.

They're also 5th in goals for %.

Should be better than 10 wins 8 loses over that stretch.

[mjd1001]

18 minutes ago, Big Guava said:

Kinda crazy as this team was horrible defensively and now has become mostly very good. They have only allowed 40 goals since January 1st, the best number in the NHL.

Their issue? They have sacrificed a LOT of offense to do it. They need to figure out how to do both at the same time.

Shots are about the same as last year on average but their shooting percentage has gone from 5th at 11.0% last year to 9.3% which is in the 20s this year. Is it a regression to the mean and last year was a career year for many players? Maybe. But almost 2% seems like a huge dropoff. More likely they will be somewhere around 10% most years which means they are underperforming this year in terms of scoring.

Seems this year a lot of chances they would have buried last year have stayed out of the net.

If they continue their defensive play and can figure out how to play offense this team could start making some noise. Maybe too late for this year but it would bode well for next year.

I don't know the numbers up to today, but when you break things down, this is what it looks like:

-Goatending (UPL) is better than last year

-Overall team defense, especially since Jan 1, is better than last year (eye test and shots allowed)

-Goal scoring is only SLIGHTLY off compared to last year with 2 big exceptions that you didn't expect...Cozens and Tage. They are getting chances. They are getting the same number of shots as last year....just they aren not converting, shooting percentage is way down.

I know the narrative is there was a major change in coaching that is causing the drop in goals.  That might be partially true but it really isn't more than just a small part. Most of the team is scoring at a similar rate to last year (only slightly less)...its just Tage and Cozens aren't hitting the back of the net.

[Big Guava]

Just now, pi2000 said:

They've also played the second fewest games, but yeah UPL is running hot which is nice to see.

They're also 5th in goals for %.

Should be better than 10 wins 8 loses over that stretch.

Yeah their offense is killing them right now. They are looking like the last place Sabre teams that scored 2 goals a game every night and it was a minor miracle when they got 3 or more.

 

They are way too talented to be in this position. They need to figure it out.

[mjd1001]

Carolina, Florida, and Tampa next week.

That will be a good test for UPL and the team defense.

[Big Guava]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't know the numbers up to today, but when you break things down, this is what it looks like:

-Goatending (UPL) is better than last year

-Overall team defense, especially since Jan 1, is better than last year (eye test and shots allowed)

-Goal scoring is only SLIGHTLY off compared to last year with 2 big exceptions that you didn't expect...Cozens and Tage. They are getting chances. They are getting the same number of shots as last year....just they aren not converting, shooting percentage is way down.

I know the narrative is there was a major change in coaching that is causing the drop in goals.  That might be partially true but it really isn't more than just a small part. Most of the team is scoring at a similar rate to last year (only slightly less)...its just Tage and Cozens aren't hitting the back of the net.

Slightly? They are averaging .65 goals a game less. That's over 2 fewer goals every 4 games. That's significant.

Edited February 24 by Big Guava

[Big Guava]

Sabres also are 5th in the NHL allowing only 29.07 shots per game. That's far better than last year's 33.05 shots against per game.

[mjd1001]

10 hours ago, Big Guava said:

Slightly? They are averaging .83 goals a game less. That's over 3 fewer goals every 4 games. That's significant.

 I'm saying everyone else BESIDES Cozens and Tage.  The vast majority of the scoring differene is from them, NOT the rest of the team.

Tage and Cozens are even getting their shots off. Every game Tage is not just getting shots, he is getting quality chances....the 2 of them just aren't converting.

I put this in a different thread as of last week, but the rest of the team besides those 2....they are scoring at almost the same rate as last year, (the slight difference is likely due to top scorers like Skinner and Tuch missing games) they are getting about the same shots as last year.  Tage and Cozens are getting about the same shots as last year, they are just converting a lot less (the 2 of them). As a team they are only off 0.9 shots per game from last year.  Their team shooting percentage is down from 11 percent to 9.3...again, the vast majority of that drop is due to Tage and Cozens.

If there was a MAJOR change in coaching that was cutting down on the offense, why is everyone else getting (As a TEAM) almost the same production as last year? About the same shots as last year?  Even Tage and Cozens are getting just about the same number of shots per game as last year.   As much as so many people just want to blame this on Granato, the single biggest difference in offense from this year compared to eveything else is simply Tage and Cozens not converting their shots like they did last year.

If you want to throw VO into the mix...yeah, his decline added to Cozens and Tage add to almost the entire drop off in goals from last year, but very few people expected much from VO.   

Edited February 24 by mjd1001

[7+6=13]

5 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

 I'm saying everyone else BESIDES Cozens and Tage.  The vast majority of the scoring differene is from them, NOT the rest of the team.

Tage and Cozens are even getting their shots off. Every game Tage is not just getting shots, he is getting quality chances....the 2 of them just aren't converting.

I put this in a different thread as of last week, but the rest of the team besides those 2....they are scoring at almost the same rate as last year, (the slight difference is likely due to top scorers like Skinner and Tuch missing games) they are getting about the same shots as last year.  Tage and Cozens are getting about the same shots as last year, they are just converting a lot less (the 2 of them). As a team they are only off 0.9 shots per game from last year.  Their team shooting percentage is down from 11 percent to 9.3...again, the vast majority of that drop is due to Tage and Cozens.

If there was a MAJOR change in coaching that was cutting down on the offense, why is everyone else getting (As a TEAM) almost the same production as last year? About the same shots as last year?  Even Tage and Cozens are getting just about the same number of shots per game as last year.   As much as so many people just want to blame this on Granato, the single biggest difference in offense from this year compared to eveything else is simply Tage and Cozens not converting their shots like they did last year.

If you want to throw VO into the mix...yeah, his decline added to Cozens and Tage add to almost the entire drop off in goals from last year, but very few people expected much from VO.   

I'll have to look up the numbers but the bolded doesn't sound right. 

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

I'll have to look up the numbers but the bolded doesn't sound right. 

Last year 3.57 goals per game for the team. This year 2.91.  Difference of 0.66 goals per game.

Last year, Tage/Cozens accounted for 0.95 goals per game. This year 0.47.  Difference of 0.48

So, as of last night, 73% of the missing goals from last year per game (0.48 goals per game of the 0.66 goals per game from the team) is due to just Tage and Cozens alone. 

The entire rest of the team combined is soring 0.18 less goals per game (or, the rest of the team besides them is scoring one goal less every 5-6 games on average.)

 

My whole point is it really isn't much of a change in coaching from last year.  The "fire Granato because we want a change crowd" will disagee with every post I make about this, simply because they want heads to roll but...

-The team is generating almost (maybe 1 less) shots per game as last year.

-The team is generating high danger and mid-range in front of the not shots almost the same as last year (maybe 1-1.5 less per game when I looked it up last week)

-Thompson and Cozens are getting the same number of shots as last year. Eye test...Thompson is getting PRIME, front of the  net chances he isn't converting on, comments are made by numerous posters in the past few weeks during the gameday threads as everyone can see that. A change of coaching style hasn't impacted his chances...its just he isn't putting them in like the last 2-2.5 years.

-The rest of the team is getting just about the same number of shots as last year (maybe 1 less, if that), and they are scoring just about as much (0.18 per game less) If you consider your prime scorers, Tuch and Skinner, have missed more games than last year, that likely makes up the entire difference.

-PP looks awful though? Sure does.  But as in another thread, Tage, Cozens, and VO account for just about the entire difference.  Tage is getting his chances, he is getting his one timers. The PP doesn't look THAT much different than last year (Last years PP was basically feed Tage or VO the puck there wasn't any other movement or magic involved with it.) The difference? Tage and Cozens aren't converting their chances.  The PP looked awful last year but was saved by Tage and VO one timers. That was the 'magic' this PP had.

If there is a change in scoring (other than Tage or Cozens getting chances but not converting on them) it is very minor. A fraction of a goal per game.  But the defense of this team is MUCH better than last year.

I'm not saying the team had stellar coaching last year...maybe last year Tage one timers on the PP, Tage and Cozens overall covered up a rather bad team in other areas.  My thought is this team might be SLIGHTLY better coached this year COMPARED to last year, they just aren't getting that Tage and Cozens production to cover up the bad things, but are getting BETTER overall defensive play.

When I posted this a week or two ago someone suggested that I was reaching for, cherry-picking numbers to just present one side of the story.  I don't agree with that, this isn't a deep dive into the deep depths of new age analytics...this is pretty straight forward stats that, to me, are easy to understand.

Edited February 24 by mjd1001

[North Buffalo]

Tage is depending on others to create much of his good chances whereas last year it was more evenly split... Since his injury he seems to have lost leg strength and speed getting knocked off his pins way too often

[Weave]

Hmmmm… success in garbage time?  Never would have guessed it.

[bob_sauve28]

Question: Is this a result of the Sabres playing fewer games? I know we had played more games than other teams and now we are about even in number of games played 

[Stoner]

Who is it who makes the snarky banners?

[Gatorman0519]

We’ve played a lot of bad teams the second half of the season as well. 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Last year 3.57 goals per game for the team. This year 2.91.  Difference of 0.66 goals per game.

Last year, Tage/Cozens accounted for 0.95 goals per game. This year 0.47.  Difference of 0.48

So, as of last night, 73% of the missing goals from last year per game (0.48 goals per game of the 0.66 goals per game from the team) is due to just Tage and Cozens alone. 

The entire rest of the team combined is soring 0.18 less goals per game (or, the rest of the team besides them is scoring one goal less every 5-6 games on average.)

 

My whole point is it really isn't much of a change in coaching from last year.  The "fire Granato because we want a change crowd" will disagee with every post I make about this, simply because they want heads to roll but...

-The team is generating almost (maybe 1 less) shots per game as last year.

-The team is generating high danger and mid-range in front of the not shots almost the same as last year (maybe 1-1.5 less per game when I looked it up last week)

-Thompson and Cozens are getting the same number of shots as last year. Eye test...Thompson is getting PRIME, front of the  net chances he isn't converting on, comments are made by numerous posters in the past few weeks during the gameday threads as everyone can see that. A change of coaching style hasn't impacted his chances...its just he isn't putting them in like the last 2-2.5 years.

-The rest of the team is getting just about the same number of shots as last year (maybe 1 less, if that), and they are scoring just about as much (0.18 per game less) If you consider your prime scorers, Tuch and Skinner, have missed more games than last year, that likely makes up the entire difference.

-PP looks awful though? Sure does.  But as in another thread, Tage, Cozens, and VO account for just about the entire difference.  Tage is getting his chances, he is getting his one timers. The PP doesn't look THAT much different than last year (Last years PP was basically feed Tage or VO the puck there wasn't any other movement or magic involved with it.) The difference? Tage and Cozens aren't converting their chances.  The PP looked awful last year but was saved by Tage and VO one timers. That was the 'magic' this PP had.

If there is a change in scoring (other than Tage or Cozens getting chances but not converting on them) it is very minor. A fraction of a goal per game.  But the defense of this team is MUCH better than last year.

I'm not saying the team had stellar coaching last year...maybe last year Tage one timers on the PP, Tage and Cozens overall covered up a rather bad team in other areas.  My thought is this team might be SLIGHTLY better coached this year COMPARED to last year, they just aren't getting that Tage and Cozens production to cover up the bad things, but are getting BETTER overall defensive play.

When I posted this a week or two ago someone suggested that I was reaching for, cherry-picking numbers to just present one side of the story.  I don't agree with that, this isn't a deep dive into the deep depths of new age analytics...this is pretty straight forward stats that, to me, are easy to understand.

I don't want to dismiss everything you said. It's easy enough to acknowledge that for whatever reasons, Tage and Cozens are having regression seasons, and that has significantly affected offensive numbers. Losing Quinn for most of the year is also a factor, as a leap forward was anticipated, and quite possible.

All that said, those who point to a weak schedule in much of the new year are correct. The lackluster numbers for a few key players on offense does not address the poor home record, the slow starts, the habitual hole of giving up the first goal, not to mention the obvious deficit of grit and toughness, a lack of snarl that permits the other team to consistently bully the Sabres. 

Granato may indeed be marginally coaching better this year, but he appears to be enabling a culture of entitlement and hostility towards a long-suffering fan base that has plenty of reason to voice their displeasure. If your job allows you to play a game for millions of dollars, accepting that element of the implied contract ought not to be too onerous a burden.

All that said, the addition of a genuine top 4 D and some grit vets with more in the tank than the Latvian locomotive and KO could have been the missing ingredients in a year where UPL has emerged as a surprising stalwart goalie. That is on KA, who is always hedging on expectations, and pushing into the distant future the winning that is long overdue.

[kas23]

37 minutes ago, Weave said:

Hmmmm… success in garbage time?  Never would have guessed it.

This has pretty much been the story for the last 3 years straight. 

[Thorner]

29 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

We’ve played a lot of bad teams the second half of the season as well. 

Huge factor 

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

All that said, those who point to a weak schedule in much of the new year are correct. The lackluster numbers for a few key players on offense does not address the poor home record, the slow starts, the habitual hole of giving up the first goal, not to mention the obvious deficit of grit and toughness, a lack of snarl that permits the other team to consistently bully the Sabres. 

Granato may indeed be marginally coaching better this year, but he appears to be enabling a culture of entitlement and hostility towards a long-suffering fan base that has plenty of reason to voice their displeasure. If your job allows you to play a game for millions of dollars, accepting that element of the implied contract ought not to be too onerous a burden.

All that said, the addition of a genuine top 4 D and some grit vets with more in the tank than the Latvian locomotive and KO could have been the missing ingredients in a year where UPL has emerged as a surprising stalwart goalie. That is on KA, who is always hedging on expectations, and pushing into the distant future the winning that is long overdue.

Based on my original post in your response... I don't agree with everything you said but I do agree with a lot of it, probably more than half.

My view is the number one thing this team needs is a really really good veteran Defenseman. Someone 27 to 30 years old... Legit top four,  Maybe a top two guy. Those are very very hard to get. Especially with a lot of them having no trade clauses. I'm not saying it's easy but that one is on Adams to get done. If he doesn't, I think the defenseman on this team would grow into a very good defense group, but it would take a couple of years. A veteran right now accelerates that.

And as for the schedule being weak recently.... Well all of the factors I brought up, Tage and Cozens not producing, they've been there the whole year. Against good teams, against bad teams. The stats I quoted were for the entire year, about those those two at least, not just the past couple of weeks.

If anything, the week schedule recently supports my point of view.... As Cozens has only started producing against the weaker team's recently... His numbers were even worse before the run of easier teams in the past month or so.

The home versus road record, that has baffled me. But again I don't think Granato is coaching worse this year. They had the same issue last year when they were one point away from being a playoff team. If it's an issue, it's not because he is coaching worse than last year... It's he's doing the same thing as last year.

KO I think should be gone replaced with someone younger. Zengus, I'm perfectly happy with his play and I'd bring him back for another year. I'm not caught up on the performance of a fourth line, but two new, young guys, with Zemgus, I'm happy with that

I would feel better with some changes to the coaching staff. Switch up some assistance, overpay and bring in an assistant who's really good. My point is I don't think it's all on Granato, and I don't think switching him out for a retread of what's available out there instantly makes this team better. Trade prospects to get a top four defenseman, bring some youth into the fourth line, bring in that experienced asst. coach, and I think you're 80% of the way there to doing what you need to do.

Edited February 24 by mjd1001

[Thorner]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't want to dismiss everything you said. It's easy enough to acknowledge that for whatever reasons, Tage and Cozens are having regression seasons, and that has significantly affected offensive numbers. Losing Quinn for most of the year is also a factor, as a leap forward was anticipated, and quite possible.

All that said, those who point to a weak schedule in much of the new year are correct. The lackluster numbers for a few key players on offense does not address the poor home record, the slow starts, the habitual hole of giving up the first goal, not to mention the obvious deficit of grit and toughness, a lack of snarl that permits the other team to consistently bully the Sabres. 

Granato may indeed be marginally coaching better this year, but he appears to be enabling a culture of entitlement and hostility towards a long-suffering fan base that has plenty of reason to voice their displeasure. If your job allows you to play a game for millions of dollars, accepting that element of the implied contract ought not to be too onerous a burden.

All that said, the addition of a genuine top 4 D and some grit vets with more in the tank than the Latvian locomotive and KO could have been the missing ingredients in a year where UPL has emerged as a surprising stalwart goalie. That is on KA, who is always hedging on expectations, and pushing into the distant future the winning that is long overdue.

Right. And it’s not that the numbers are being cherry picked, so much as the conclusions being drawn from them. 

“Well, if you kindly avoid factoring in our 2 best centres coming in to the season, and Olofsson because it doesn’t fit my argument, you’ll see that the rest of the offence is only slightly below that of a team that ultimately finished 20th.

Aim higher. It’s more than just a “fix the PP fix the team” issue. 

[mjd1001]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right. And it’s not that the numbers are being cherry picked, so much as the conclusions being drawn from them. 

“Well, if you kindly avoid factoring in our 2 best centres coming in to the season, and Olofsson because it doesn’t fit my argument, you’ll see that the rest of the offence is only slightly below that of a team that ultimately finished 20th.

Aim higher. It’s more than just a “fix the PP fix the team” issue. 

There's a difference. The numbers aren't cherry picked to fit my argument... The number is about the top two players ARE my argument.

Let me put it a different way. 21 out of 23 players on the team are scoring at a rate very close to last year. The entire team is getting just about the same amount of shots as last year. The entire team is getting opportunities in front of the net, high danger chances in mid-range chances, at about the same rate as last year. The entire team is playing better defensively. The only thing that is a major difference is those two guys scoring. If the entire team is producing like they did last year except for them... And those two guys are getting the same amount of shots... About the same amount of scoring chances that are of quality scoring chances... They are just for whatever reason not putting them into the net.... That's not coaching being a lot worse this year compared to last year.

I don't get how you don't understand that. My whole argument is based on the things that coaching can impact, shots on goal, production by most people on the roster... Everything is very similar to last year except for those two guys shooting percentage.

So again, you're saying I'm cherry picking taking those two guys out of the statistics... Again.... You are proving my point... The coaching isn't that much different except for those two guys... And those two guys. It's not about their shots on goal, it's not about even where the shots are coming from... It is simply about the shooting percentage.

I don't know about you... But in any sport when a team misses the playoffs, I don't say let's just change the biggest things possible, I try to identify the individual things that need to get changed.

It goes back to the analogy of a sick patient.... You don't say the patient is sick so let's treat every single thing we know.... You try to identify the one small factor that is wrong. Production, shooting percentage, by those two guys is the one thing that is much more different than everything else. Again, I'm not cherry picking stats. I'm doing the opposite. I'm isolating one or two particular stats that are different than everything.

 

Edited February 24 by mjd1001