Sabres on 7-4 "run" in 2024 lose ground in playoff race

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I am confused. Pts %-wise: it looks like this after you swap out TB for TOR:

Sabres get more points than Detroit and they are in ... what am I missing? TOR finishes 3rd in the division, gets in. TB get WC 1 and Sabres get WC 2. There is nothing that says one WC from each division, is there? The Atlantic can finish 1, 2, 3 in the WC, no?

I mean, all fantasy, but for argument's sake, play along. 🙂 

Looks good to me.

The WC can come for anywhere.  Top 3 from each division and then the next best 2.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, TageMVP said:

Alex Nylander 2.0 incoming 

Casey Mittelstadt 2.0

[ska-T Palmtown]

1 minute ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Looks good to me.

The WC can come for anywhere.  Top 3 from each division and then the next best 2.

I am wondering if my off-handed comment about not include the Phliers was confusing. I was musing that OK, in one scenario PIT is en fuego and gets in. So en fuengo, in fact, that it would make it likely they took 2nd or 3rd in their division so my scenario was incomplete without mapping out how filly was doing. Filly is not tremendously far ahead of the Sabres and if they collapsed, perhaps they finish 3rd or 4th in the WC behind your Buffalo Sabres! I am not near my trusty speadsheet right now, but I promise to fill in the gap later.

[Gatorman0519]

Never was a playoff team. With Quinn gone now another hole opens in the roster we can’t fill. 

[TageMVP]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Casey Mittelstadt 2.0

Mikhail Grigorenko 2.0 

[Thorner]

56 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Right now, a 92 point pace would get you in the way things stand. Usually you need 94-96.

Sabres have 33 games left. To get to 92 points they need to play at a 109 'point pace.'   To get to 95, the need to play at a 117 'point pace.'  To play at a 109 point pace, that means you are playing like a top 6 (6th best) team in the league. a 117 point pace?  Only Boston and Vancouver have played at the pace for the season so far, so you'd have to play at a top 2 or 3 team in the league pace.

Their current spot in the standings (how many teams to pass, how many points out), doesn't mean nothing, but the goal is the point total.  Right now its 92, but usually ends up being about 95.

The last WC team is pacing for 94 right now tho 

Check that: 95

[DarthEbriate]

12 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I am confused. Pts %-wise: it looks like this after you swap out TB for TOR:

Sabres get more points than Detroit and they are in ... what am I missing? TOR finishes 3rd in the division, gets in. TB get WC 1 and Sabres get WC 2. There is nothing that says one WC from each division, is there? The Atlantic can finish 1, 2, 3 in the WC, no?

I mean, all fantasy, but for argument's sake, play along. 🙂 

You're good. We're saying the same thing.

The Sabres have to get WC2, but that spot is almost guaranteed to be one of their own division (whether TOR, TB, or DET), because all the other teams are Metro and can catch Philly sooner than they get to the Wild Card spot. Philly could be the final playoff team and have 90 points (with the 6 seed), and Buffalo could get to 95 points and still miss out.

[JoeSchmoe]

We seem to have steady goaltending now which wasn't the case before.

If Quinn's "longer term" injury is on the Skinner "week to week" side of long, the all-star break couldn't have come at a better time. If he comes back, I'll say this end of season playoff push will be worth watching. Otherwise, let's get into the all too familiar next year mode.

 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

You're good. We're saying the same thing.

The Sabres have to get WC2, but that spot is almost guaranteed to be one of their own division (whether TOR, TB, or DET), because all the other teams are Metro and can catch Philly sooner than they get to the Wild Card spot. Philly could be the final playoff team and have 90 points (with the 6 seed), and Buffalo could get to 95 points and still miss out.

Exactly. So while the line appears to be 92 currently, it’s functionally not 

[Thorner]

Sabres are tied for 6th in regulation wins in the conference lol 

8th in regulation or OT wins

Tied for 10th in wins

Tied for 13th in points 

…So we aren’t getting enough OT wins, S/O wins, and loser points. Those are getting subbed for outright losses 

Regulation losses: tied for 2nd last 

Edited January 28 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

I've been trying to tell you guys for ages all these numbers don't matter. Points don't matter.

Just look at Pts percentage for your playoff chances. Only number that matters. 

With this run we have managed to catch Montreal. So now with this run only 6 teams are ahead of us for the wildcard spots, not 7. No chance. 

league wide we are 8th for the draft unless we win a lottery. We are basically the same as always. 

[Marvin]

50 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Sabres are tied for 6th in regulation wins in the conference lol 

8th in regulation or OT wins

Tied for 10th in wins

Tied for 13th in points 

…So we aren’t getting enough OT wins, S/O wins, and loser points. Those are getting subbed for outright losses 

Regulation losses: tied for 2nd last 

I stumbled across this earlier this weekend.  It sucks that the Sabres can't get critical goals to tie games to send them to OT because that is one of the primary differences with the teams above us.

[Night Train]

[bunomatic]

1 hour ago, TageMVP said:

Mikhail Grigorenko 2.0 

Keith Gretzky 2.0

 

[JoeSchmoe]

4 hours ago, Big Guava said:

Probably because teams went from having 3-4 games in hand to having no games in hand. So technically they didn't really lose ground, the other teams just made up the games they had in hand and they mostly stayed even with them.

 

Could have been far worse

I haven't double checked this, but my sense is this is probably the correct answer.

[TageMVP]

10 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

Keith Gretzky 2.0

 

Lol 

I don't see a Keith Gretzky. Did you mean Brent Gretzky? 

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

Keith Gretzky 2.0

 

Wayne. Wayne Primeau

[bunomatic]

2 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

Lol 

I don't see a Keith Gretzky. Did you mean Brent Gretzky? 

I thought we wasted a pick on Keith Gretzky but it could have been Brent. It was a long time ago.lol

[Norcal]

7 points out, here they come, the Buffalo Sabres

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 hours ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I am wondering if my off-handed comment about not include the Phliers was confusing. I was musing that OK, in one scenario PIT is en fuego and gets in. So en fuengo, in fact, that it would make it likely they took 2nd or 3rd in their division so my scenario was incomplete without mapping out how filly was doing. Filly is not tremendously far ahead of the Sabres and if they collapsed, perhaps they finish 3rd or 4th in the WC behind your Buffalo Sabres! I am not near my trusty speadsheet right now, but I promise to fill in the gap later.

When in doubt *F* the Flyers.

DASTARDLY !!

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 hours ago, TageMVP said:

Mikhail Grigorenko 2.0 

I watched him play here in Halifax many times when he was playing in the Q for the Remparts.

I was not shy in my boastology for him being a lock to be great for the Sabres and was thrilled when the Sabres drafted him.

I am still pulling out the feathers.  I have no idea how I am going to tackle removal of the tar.

[Stoner]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

We seem to have steady goaltending now which wasn't the case before.

If Quinn's "longer term" injury is on the Skinner "week to week" side of long, the all-star break couldn't have come at a better time. If he comes back, I'll say this end of season playoff push will be worth watching. Otherwise, let's get into the all too familiar next year mode.

 

He has nine goals in his past 42 games. Is his presence or absence really going to be a determining factor either way?

Why do we do this to our kids?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

20 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

I thought we wasted a pick on Keith Gretzky but it could have been Brent. It was a long time ago.lol

You are right.  Played maybe 60 games for Rochester over parts of 2 seasons.  Never palyed a game in the NHL.

1985 3rd rounder .. obviously taken for his name alone since his hockey playing was barely AHL level.  Played reoughly 10 years pro hockey.  Is the GM of some team someplace.

[MattPie]

7-4 is only like 0.8 points above safe playoff pace, so I'm not surprised they didn't gain any ground. Now, if they'd have gone 11-0, we'd be talking. Or 9-2 and then 7-2 over 20 games. The Sabres are very much in "need to be one of the the best teams in hockey for the rest of the season" territory with the start they got.

Until the end of the season, watching the other teams doesn't really matter much. There are plenty of teams hovering around the same place, just take care of your own games and the standings will come. The Sabres are not taking care of their games.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Sabres are tied for 6th in regulation wins in the conference lol 

8th in regulation or OT wins

Tied for 10th in wins

Tied for 13th in points 

…So we aren’t getting enough OT wins, S/O wins, and loser points. Those are getting subbed for outright losses 

Regulation losses: tied for 2nd last 

The ####ing extra skater situations are ####ing killing them.  They have only 20 PP goals the entire season.  They have all of TWO 6v5 goals for.  (And 1 of those PP goals came with the goalie out, and was not included in the 6v5 stat.)  They've given up 9 SH goals.  So they've netted only ELEVEN PP goals through 47 games.  And they've given up 3 6v5 EN goals.  (And like w/ the PP goals, 1 of those SH goals came with the opponent's goalie out, and wasn't included in the 6v5 stats.)

Why don't they even get to OT (where they're only 2-3-1 and 0-1 in the SO) anymore?  Would say that a complete lack of being able to score with the extra attacker is a HUGE part of that.

And the PP was an issue last year.  Hate that they didn't upgrade the coaching there.  Along with ALL the other issues hurting them this year, that is the single biggest in why they aren't legitimately in the hunt at the ASB.