Sabres on 7-4 "run" in 2024 lose ground in playoff race

[Stoner]

This is what you try and tell people who say wait until Christmas or the All Star break to make judgments on the playoffs. You can't fall behind in the race and hope for a hot streak later on.

The Sabres have won 7 of 11 and fallen two points deeper in the hole. On Jan. 1 they were 7 points back with five teams to jump over. They still have five teams to overcome but are now 9 points out of a playoff spot.

If they play out the final 33 games at the same pace as the first 11 games of 2024, they will finish with 90 points. Not enough.

7-4 is hardly setting the world on fire. It's a 104 point season. So there's room for growth.

[ska-T Chitown]

Moving this from the gameday thread to here. Here is a graph of 8 teams in the East WC picture:

The Sabres have been last or tied for last in this group (no BJ's, no Otters) since game 20.

Since the Blue&Gold are trending up, I decided to just map every team's progress since game 26 - it looks good for Buffalo until you realize TB and PIT are on fire since then ...

Buffalo would go from tied for last to ... drumroll ... 3rd - one spot out of the playoffs. However, at the current paces TB and PIT would run away with the two WC. I am too lazy to go back and add PHI (which, dear peer reviewers, I acknowledge they were a mistake to leave out) and another cuspy team to see where the trends took us. I had not planned to do the trend, but seeing as the Swords were trending up, I gave it a whirl.

I took each team's point pace at 26 games and at 49 games (had to fudge numbers for PIT, NJD, and WAS), got a point% increase trend per game over that stretch, projected it out of the remaining 33 games (% total add), new projected point % and translated that into a projected point total. 

Interesting to see that the Aisles and Ovechkins have been playing like hot garbage for quite some time, while (Crosby, Malks, and Tang), The Pegula Shop Boys, and Ride the Lightnings lead the upward swing (in that order). No idea why that turned into a music reference bit at the end.

Anyway - I am sure there are dozens of actual statistical reasons and hundreds of practical reasons why my Excel Fun is not very accurate, but it paints a strange picture compared to the Ol' Doom and Gloom squad around here.

Cheers!

[ska-T Chitown]

sorry the end of the graph gets all funky - I had to add some numbers to do the project math without using different game totals because I am lazy. Also, since the Sabres are on a TWO GAME WINNING STREAK (!!!) I did not want to cut the graph off at 46 games for the flightless birds.

[Stoner]

ska... Not quite sure how to read your Doom and Gloom dig. But wouldn't missing the playoffs again, even narrowly, be reason for continued doom and renewed gloom for next year?

Man, I am really not up for another heroic run that fools people.

But I guess it's what they do. Start your term paper late, make it passable with an hour to spare and celebrate the C- with a beer.

If I wanted to be really cynical I'd say it's all by design. Do as little as possible to ensure the team is not a legit playoff team, then do as much as possible when it's too late to convince the customers you were legit if not for 1. 2. 3. and will be legit in the fall.

See also score two late goals to get back in it/lightly graze the goalie's helmet to start a mini melee.

We are suckers.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

44 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

This is what you try and tell people who say wait until Christmas or the All Star break to make judgments on the playoffs. You can't fall behind in the race and hope for a hot streak later on.

The Sabres have won 7 of 11 and fallen two points deeper in the hole. On Jan. 1 they were 7 points back with five teams to jump over. They still have five teams to overcome but are now 9 points out of a playoff spot.

If they play out the final 33 games at the same pace as the first 11 games of 2024, they will finish with 90 points. Not enough.

7-4 is hardly setting the world on fire. It's a 104 point season. So there's room for growth.

I hear you, but look at Edmonton.  Things happen.  If they win 7 and turn a few of the 4 losses into OT / SO losses in the 3 remaining sets of 11 games then Bob's your uncle with 94 / 95 points.

With 90 points the Sabres will miss by a point or two again this season.  With the change in focus to the defencive game I could live with that, but I would not like it.

As far as 104 points in a season goes ... where do I sign up for that?  That would assure playoff hockey in Buffalo.  Maybe even top 3 in the Adams division.

Edited January 28 by Sabres Fan in NS

[ska-T Chitown]

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

ska... Not quite sure how to read your Doom and Gloom dig. But wouldn't missing the playoffs again, even narrowly, be reason for continued doom and renewed gloom for next year?

Man, I am really not up for another heroic run that fools people.

But I guess it's what they do. Start your term paper late, make it passable with an hour to spare and celebrate the C- with a beer.

If I wanted to be really cynical I'd say it's all by design. Do as little as possible to ensure the team is not a legit playoff team, then do as much as possible when it's too late to convince the customers you were legit if not for 1. 2. 3. and will be legit in the fall.

See also score two late goals to get back in it/lightly graze the goalie's helmet to start a mini melee.

We are suckers.

PA - I absolutely should have removed that line ... I actually just copy/pasted the whole thing out of the game day thread. Over there it seemed like a generic tongue in cheek playful swat at SS (hell, myself included). I can guarantee it was not directed at you, nor anyone else specifically!

[bob_sauve28]

Other teams made up the game in hand they had on us 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

30 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

sorry the end of the graph gets all funky - I had to add some numbers to do the project math without using different game totals because I am lazy. Also, since the Sabres are on a TWO GAME WINNING STREAK (!!!) I did not want to cut the graph off at 46 games for the flightless birds.

94.7 might just be enough if one other stumbles just a little bit.  It would have been last year.

[Big Guava]

56 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

This is what you try and tell people who say wait until Christmas or the All Star break to make judgments on the playoffs. You can't fall behind in the race and hope for a hot streak later on.

The Sabres have won 7 of 11 and fallen two points deeper in the hole. On Jan. 1 they were 7 points back with five teams to jump over. They still have five teams to overcome but are now 9 points out of a playoff spot.

If they play out the final 33 games at the same pace as the first 11 games of 2024, they will finish with 90 points. Not enough.

7-4 is hardly setting the world on fire. It's a 104 point season. So there's room for growth.

Probably because teams went from having 3-4 games in hand to having no games in hand. So technically they didn't really lose ground, the other teams just made up the games they had in hand and they mostly stayed even with them.

 

Could have been far worse

Edited January 28 by Big Guava

[GASabresIUFAN]

Don’t let the last 11 games fool you.  This is still a bad hockey team.  They just came through their easiest stretch of the season and only one of the 7 wins was against a team (the Kings) currently in a playoff spot.  The Kings only have 22 wins on the season; one more than the Sabres 21.  

Also they still can’t start a game to save their lives.  On the road trip, they gave up the first goal in all three games and trailed by 2 goals or more in all three games.  This is not how good teams play.  Do what they did against good teams and you lose.  In fact, in the last 6 losses by the Sabres, they gave up the first goal in 5 of the games and gave up the first 2 goals in 4 of the 6 games. 

They also have yet to win 3 in a row.  

Edited January 29 by GASabresIUFAN

[TageMVP]

Agree with topic

What do you have as a fan without hope, though? Nothing 

I dont want to see the Sabres lose. Not for a better draft pick, no tanking, not to get a coach fired. That's all crap 

Come out after the break and get 8 more wins in a row. Do it 

[Thorner]

Currently slated to draft…..8th 

[TageMVP]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Currently slated to draft…..8th 

Alex Nylander 2.0 incoming 

[ska-T Chitown]

6 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

Alex Nylander 2.0 incoming 

Does anyone currently tearing it up in the NHL have an overrated younger brother we can draft??

[mjd1001]

Right now, a 92 point pace would get you in the way things stand. Usually you need 94-96.

Sabres have 33 games left. To get to 92 points they need to play at a 109 'point pace.'   To get to 95, the need to play at a 117 'point pace.'  To play at a 109 point pace, that means you are playing like a top 6 (6th best) team in the league. a 117 point pace?  Only Boston and Vancouver have played at the pace for the season so far, so you'd have to play at a top 2 or 3 team in the league pace.

Their current spot in the standings (how many teams to pass, how many points out), doesn't mean nothing, but the goal is the point total.  Right now its 92, but usually ends up being about 95.

Edited January 28 by mjd1001

[That Aud Smell]

American Thanksgiving. 

Look to where your club is in the standings at American Thanksgiving. If they’re not in a playoff spot then, there is a strong chance they won’t be there at the end of the season either.

There are exceptions and outliers, sure. They only prove the rule, imo.

[Pimlach]

I feel this is going to be a much too little, way too late story.  The team is still flawed.   They won’t make the playoffs because the best players are not having a good season and the game day coaching is not good enough. 

I still want to stay interested, be competitive, and see progress right to the end.  
 

After that-  Gallant and Berube are out there.   The Brind’Amour remote possibility is out there.  I want a change at this magnitude and with commitment from TP and KA to let the head coach have a say in the NHL Roster.  

Edited January 28 by Pimlach

[ska-T Chitown]

Same thing as before, but with different arbitrary timeframes; extrapolating a team's trend line over the last 10, 20, 25, and 30 games from whatever current game they are at.

Buffalo finishes no higher than 3rd and misses out by 20 points in that scenario. It is maybe possible DET pushes TOR into the WC, but I don't think TOR is falling below 52.4%, so yeah.

"Last 20" could realistically have PIT pushing PHI out - but again, the Sabres are like 15 points behind still 😞

"Last 30" hurts because magically 30 games ago, the Sabres were somehow 0.500 and are obviously not currently a 0.500 hockey team, so trending down.

Anywho - yeah, things are bleak. whomp whomp.

[That Aud Smell]

If I’m wagering, I’d bet even money that they don’t crack 90 points. And if I were getting odds, I’d consider taking at or under 80.

Edited January 28 by That Aud Smell

[Ogelthorpe]

41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Currently slated to draft…..8th 

It's like the Bills picking in the teens for 17 years. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

5 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

Same thing as before, but with different arbitrary timeframes; extrapolating a team's trend line over the last 10, 20, 25, and 30 games from whatever current game they are at.

Buffalo finishes no higher than 3rd and misses out by 20 points in that scenario. It is maybe possible DET pushes TOR into the WC, but I don't think TOR is falling below 52.4%, so yeah.

"Last 20" could realistically have PIT pushing PHI out - but again, the Sabres are like 15 points behind still 😞

"Last 30" hurts because magically 30 games ago, the Sabres were somehow 0.500 and are obviously not currently a 0.500 hockey team, so trending down.

Anywho - yeah, things are bleak. whomp whomp.

Not to be a big parade pisser oner, but this one is not anywhere near as goodly as your other one, eh.

[ska-T Chitown]

6 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Not to be a big parade pisser oner, but this one is not anywhere near as goodly as your other one, eh.

lol - it is definitely not a great picture. I felt bad because I definitely cherry-picked the "low of the lows" for my first "projection", 23 games ago. Both 20 and 25 games ago were higher point % than 23, so yeah - I wonder who we can acquire in a trade using a low-teens 1st round draft pick?

[DarthEbriate]

51 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Currently slated to draft…..8th 

We seem to be made to draft 8th... it's our lot in life.

 

The other fun note to keep in mind is that the Sabres are hunting down Toronto and Detroit. Philly can lose all the games they want, another Metro team will just take their spot. The Sabres have to catch the 2nd Wild Card spot in their own division to make the playoffs.

They have to win each remaining head-to-head game with the Leafs and Wings in regulation (2 games each) to even make it interesting down the stretch.

[JohnC]

19 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I feel this is going to be a much too little, way too late story.  The team is still flawed.   They won’t make the playoffs because the best players are not having a good season and the game day coaching is not good enough. 

I still want to stay interested, be competitive, and see progress right to the end.  
 

After that-  Gallant and Berube are out there.   The Brind’Amour remote possibility is out there.  I want a change at this magnitude and with commitment from TP and KA to let the head coach have a say in the NHL Roster.  

Didn't DG get an extension this year? 

The biggest flaw entering this season related to our goaltending situation. Is it better and staffed for the future with UPL and Levi in net? I would say so. If others say no, I understand their stance. Also, a big roster flaw related to our blueline unit. There are still needed upgrades but the addition of Clifton and  Ryan Johnson upgraded the unit, at least in my estimation. 

I have repeatedly stated that it is a mistake to give up on this season from making the playoffs standpoint. My take is clearly a minority view. 

[ska-T Chitown]

7 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

We seem to be made to draft 8th... it's our lot in life.

 

The other fun note to keep in mind is that the Sabres are hunting down Toronto and Detroit. Philly can lose all the games they want, another Metro team will just take their spot. The Sabres have to catch the 2nd Wild Card spot in their own division to make the playoffs.

They have to win each remaining head-to-head game with the Leafs and Wings in regulation (2 games each) to even make it interesting down the stretch.

I am confused. Pts %-wise: it looks like this after you swap out TB for TOR:

Sabres get more points than Detroit and they are in ... what am I missing? TOR finishes 3rd in the division, gets in. TB get WC 1 and Sabres get WC 2. There is nothing that says one WC from each division, is there? The Atlantic can finish 1, 2, 3 in the WC, no?

I mean, all fantasy, but for argument's sake, play along. 🙂