Blow the Whole Team up in the Off-Season - It's the Only Reasonable Thing to do

[Goldseatsaud]

Trade him back to Carolina 

[CallawaySabres]

PLEASE

BLOW 

THIS 

THING

UP

SKY

HIGH

What the hell more does this owner need to see????

[Buffalonill]

Just now, CallawaySabres said:

PLEASE

BLOW 

THIS 

THING

UP

SKY

HIGH

What the hell more does this owner need to see????

Another first overall pick 

[mjd1001]

Ok. Blow the team up. Change coaches. Change GM's. They all may be valid points. But maybe its simpler than that.

What is wrong/different with this team compared to last year's team, which was 1 point away from the playoffs?

-This team is allowing less goals than last year. They are now middle-of-the-pack and actually improving the last few weeks. They have a goalie who not only has pretty good numbers, he passes the 'eye test' also.

Scoring is the problem but:

-Peterka is doing better than last year. Skinner is basically giving you close to the scoring of last year. Dahlin has less assists but is scoring more goals. Mitts is better offensively. Greenway and Okposo are better offensively.

Basically, this team is equal to, or BETTER than last years team in MOST ways other than:  Thompson scoring, Cozens scoring, and Tuch Scoring (Tuch isn't as big of an issue as the other 2, and it may be related to injury with him.)  VO is off also, but his play is made up for basically by Peterka, and few think/thought VO was long for this team anyway.

So yea, the results aren't what anyone wants....but its not the whole team. Much of the team is equal to last year or BETTER.   The question may not be how or why to make wholesale changes, or blow everything up....but rather how/why are Thompson, Cozens, maybe Tuch and Power issues.

I don't want to blow the whole team up yet....I don't want to make major changes yet.   I want to fix Tage, Cozens, and Power (mostly) as those guys are 3 of your 'core 4 or 5'.  

If a coaching change or GM change 'fixes' those guys, then great. But I know when people say we have waited and endured 'too long' and just want 'something to be done', I'm not quite sure what coach...or GM...comes in here and just makes those guys better. Because, while the rest of the team is 'flawed', overall they are giving you want they did last year or in some cases are better than last year.

 

[TageMVP]

On 2/12/2024 at 4:05 PM, Goldseatsaud said:

Trade him back to Carolina 

Lol he'd probly welcome that idea 

[Crusader1969]

8 hours ago, TageMVP said:

Lol he'd probly welcome that idea 

Brind'amour wouldn't.    

8 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok. Blow the team up. Change coaches. Change GM's. They all may be valid points. But maybe its simpler than that.

What is wrong/different with this team compared to last year's team, which was 1 point away from the playoffs?

-This team is allowing less goals than last year. They are now middle-of-the-pack and actually improving the last few weeks. They have a goalie who not only has pretty good numbers, he passes the 'eye test' also.

Scoring is the problem but:

-Peterka is doing better than last year. Skinner is basically giving you close to the scoring of last year. Dahlin has less assists but is scoring more goals. Mitts is better offensively. Greenway and Okposo are better offensively.

Basically, this team is equal to, or BETTER than last years team in MOST ways other than:  Thompson scoring, Cozens scoring, and Tuch Scoring (Tuch isn't as big of an issue as the other 2, and it may be related to injury with him.)  VO is off also, but his play is made up for basically by Peterka, and few think/thought VO was long for this team anyway.

So yea, the results aren't what anyone wants....but its not the whole team. Much of the team is equal to last year or BETTER.   The question may not be how or why to make wholesale changes, or blow everything up....but rather how/why are Thompson, Cozens, maybe Tuch and Power issues.

I don't want to blow the whole team up yet....I don't want to make major changes yet.   I want to fix Tage, Cozens, and Power (mostly) as those guys are 3 of your 'core 4 or 5'.  

If a coaching change or GM change 'fixes' those guys, then great. But I know when people say we have waited and endured 'too long' and just want 'something to be done', I'm not quite sure what coach...or GM...comes in here and just makes those guys better. Because, while the rest of the team is 'flawed', overall they are giving you want they did last year or in some cases are better than last year.

 

Fix the PP.  they'd be in the race with an avg PP.  

nothing needs to be blown up 

[Marvin]

38 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

 

Fix the PP.  they'd be in the race with an avg PP.  

nothing needs to be blown up 

A change in Power Play coaches is maybe all we need to make the playoffs?  Try it now by hiring Bob Woods.

[Broken Ankles]

11 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok. Blow the team up. Change coaches. Change GM's. They all may be valid points. But maybe its simpler than that.

What is wrong/different with this team compared to last year's team, which was 1 point away from the playoffs?

-This team is allowing less goals than last year. They are now middle-of-the-pack and actually improving the last few weeks. They have a goalie who not only has pretty good numbers, he passes the 'eye test' also.

Scoring is the problem but:

-Peterka is doing better than last year. Skinner is basically giving you close to the scoring of last year. Dahlin has less assists but is scoring more goals. Mitts is better offensively. Greenway and Okposo are better offensively.

Basically, this team is equal to, or BETTER than last years team in MOST ways other than:  Thompson scoring, Cozens scoring, and Tuch Scoring (Tuch isn't as big of an issue as the other 2, and it may be related to injury with him.)  VO is off also, but his play is made up for basically by Peterka, and few think/thought VO was long for this team anyway.

So yea, the results aren't what anyone wants....but its not the whole team. Much of the team is equal to last year or BETTER.   The question may not be how or why to make wholesale changes, or blow everything up....but rather how/why are Thompson, Cozens, maybe Tuch and Power issues.

I don't want to blow the whole team up yet....I don't want to make major changes yet.   I want to fix Tage, Cozens, and Power (mostly) as those guys are 3 of your 'core 4 or 5'.  

If a coaching change or GM change 'fixes' those guys, then great. But I know when people say we have waited and endured 'too long' and just want 'something to be done', I'm not quite sure what coach...or GM...comes in here and just makes those guys better. Because, while the rest of the team is 'flawed', overall they are giving you want they did last year or in some cases are better than last year.

 

No buts…Scoring is a problem.  Don’t try to dilute that with anecdotal numbers for JJP or Mitts.  The GF last year, same games played was 197.  It’s 155 this year.  That’s 42 goals.  The PP rate last year was ~.75 per game.  I hear how the Sabres are middle of the pack in even strength and the problem is all special teams.  If the PP rate was equal to 22/23, using that ratio it would increase the GF total by 17 goals. 42-17= 25 goals difference.  This year the Sabres have scored 2 or fewer goals 23 times.  Last year through 53 games it was 8 less.  Scoring is a problem.  

  The GA is down YoY by 20 because better overall goaltending and arguably improved play by the defenseman.  I do not see much improvement in defensive play by the forward group. Hence the need to shake things up a bit.  For me, more on the forward side than D.  I’d prefer 5-6 new faces there and 2 new on the Blueline.  The game against Florida confirmed it for me that the roster as currently constructed could not win a playoff series against most of the top 16 teams in the League.  

[SabreFinn]

Below Three tings that I think should be done and I hope GM will fix during the offseason. Fire Granato is not among those three tings, I am that convinced he will be back next season.

1. A RHD to play with Dahlin. Quinn Hughes got his Hronek, Makar has Toews, it is time to get a Hronek for Dahlin.

2. Buy out Skinners contract. I said earlier that it probably will be done with two seasons left, but at this point it is no reason to wait any longer.

3. Get a player specialized on power play(bonus if he do pk also). And one with some guts and leadership, someone that tell Thompson that the whole league has seen his onetimer now, try something new, and that there has to be quick movement on both puck and all players. It is hard to find a player like this and they are not for free, but there are some out there and I say just pick one and Go for it. It can't get much worse.

[Crusader1969]

3 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

Below Three tings that I think should be done and I hope GM will fix during the offseason. Fire Granato is not among those three tings, I am that convinced he will be back next season.

1. A RHD to play with Dahlin. Quinn Hughes got his Hronek, Makar has Toews, it is time to get a Hronek for Dahlin.

2. Buy out Skinners contract. I said earlier that it probably will be done with two seasons left, but at this point it is no reason to wait any longer.

3. Get a player specialized on power play(bonus if he do pk also). And one with some guts and leadership, someone that tell Thompson that the whole league has seen his onetimer now, try something new, and that there has to be quick movement on both puck and all players. It is hard to find a player like this and they are not for free, but there are some out there and I say just pick one and Go for it. It can't get much worse.

Not sure if the cost of buying out Skinner would be too much but I think it needs to be considered.  Honestly starting to think he is a big issue for this team.  

[Mango]

At quick glance (on stathead)I believe this will be the first ever Sabres season without a 3 game winning streak.

The legwork across the league is a lot of work. I will report back when I have the time. 

 

[mjd1001]

8 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

No buts…Scoring is a problem.  Don’t try to dilute that with anecdotal numbers for JJP or Mitts.  The GF last year, same games played was 197.  It’s 155 this year.  That’s 42 goals.  The PP rate last year was ~.75 per game.  I hear how the Sabres are middle of the pack in even strength and the problem is all special teams.  If the PP rate was equal to 22/23, using that ratio it would increase the GF total by 17 goals. 42-17= 25 goals difference.  This year the Sabres have scored 2 or fewer goals 23 times.  Last year through 53 games it was 8 less.  Scoring is a problem.  

  The GA is down YoY by 20 because better overall goaltending and arguably improved play by the defenseman.  I do not see much improvement in defensive play by the forward group. Hence the need to shake things up a bit.  For me, more on the forward side than D.  I’d prefer 5-6 new faces there and 2 new on the Blueline.  The game against Florida confirmed it for me that the roster as currently constructed could not win a playoff series against most of the top 16 teams in the League.  

I see a drastic improvement but only in the past few weeks.

[mjd1001]

11 hours ago, Marvin said:

A change in Power Play coaches is maybe all we need to make the playoffs?  Try it now by hiring Bob Woods.

Buffalo is 14.38 on the PP this season.  Median this year has been around 22-23% for most of the season. Last year they were at 23.42.  Lets target 23%.  Slightly worse than last year, maybe close to 10th-15th in the league this year. Where does that get them?  That gives them 13 more goals.

With no other changes, that gives them a positive goal differential this year (I think a +4). How does that equate to the standings?  In the East last year, EVERY team that was good enough to have a positive goal differential made the playoffs. Every team that had a negative missed the playoffs.  The correlation was 100%.  In the West EVERY team that had a negative missed also, 8 or the 9 teams with a positive made it.  In the East, 2 years ago EVERY team that had a positive goal differential made the playoffs, EVERY team with a negative goal differential missed.

Its not a guarantee (the West has a couple teams every so often on the bubble that don't fit the 'rule') but for the most part, the SINGLE best metric (other than points) that determine whether you are good enough to make the playoffs or miss the playoffs is overall goal differential.  Change NOTHING other than the powerplay (make them league average or close to last year) and this team has a positive goal differential.  Or think of it this way...sprinkle around those 13 extra goals...and quite a few of them probably turn losses into wins and you can get your point total up that way.

3 years ago Buffalo was 12th in the league at 21%.  2 years ago they were 16th at 21.2%. Last year  they were 9th in the league at 23.4%. This year they are 28th in the league at 14.3%.  Did the players change? Not really.  Did the head coach change? No. Did the assistants change? YES.  So, where you have a huge drop off in performance in one key aspect of your game, I just don't think you 'blow things up' or make huge changes until you change what is the problem. Its like Surgery....you have an infection on your arm, you don't just cut the whole arm off, you first TRY to get rid of the infection locally.

Edited February 17 by mjd1001

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Not sure if the cost of buying out Skinner would be too much but I think it needs to be considered.  Honestly starting to think he is a big issue for this team.  

Here is the cost for June 2024, followed by June 2025 and June 2026

 

The biggest blockade will be the owner 

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Here is the cost for June 2024, followed by June 2025 and June 2026

 

The biggest blockade will be the owner 

   Looking at the June ‘25 option, if the Sabres retained $3m in a trade, the net dollars paid by Terry would be less than a buyout ($6m vs $8m).  Coupled with Skinners actual salary of $7 & $5m, the team acquiring him would only have an actual salary of $4m and $2m respectively.  Instead of compensating a team to take on a huge cap dump of $9m per, the Sabres should be able to receive something back, no?  And the total cap retained ($6m over two years) is much better than $14m over four. 

[Thorner]

18 hours ago, Marvin said:

A change in Power Play coaches is maybe all we need to make the playoffs?  Try it now by hiring Bob Woods.

No, it’s not. 

Dangerously close to imbibing the Adams mindset 

This is exactly, exactly why we are in the position we are this season and we haven’t even finished putting the finishing touches our near-bottom of the league finish and people are calling for a reenactment of the same approach. Smh

at some point we can’t blame the organization, im sorry 

Edited February 17 by Thorny

[Thorner]

A league average PP would have us with 13 more goals this season. That’s it - that’s the league average mark this season.

The difference between 27th place and being a good, solid playoff team is not 13 goals over the last 50 games.

[Marvin]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No, it’s not. 

Dangerously close to imbibing the Adams mindset 

This is exactly, exactly why we are in the position we are this season and we haven’t even finished putting the finishing touches our near-bottom of the league finish and people are calling for a reenactment of the same approach. Smh

at some point we can’t blame the organization, im sorry 

Why not try a new coach?  If he works out, then he and Bales can survive a purge.  Bringing him in does not preclude changing Donnie or even Kevin at the end of the season.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Why not try a new coach?  If he works out, then he and Bales can survive a purge.  Bringing him in does not preclude changing Donnie or even Kevin at the end of the season.

Sure, I’m good with that

Just wanted to point out that the “squint really hard at a really low level expectation already and plan to make a solitary change that maybe gets us half-way there in a best case scenario and hope for the best” line of thinking is very frivolous.

Edited February 17 by Thorny

[Marvin]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

A league average PP would have us with 13 more goals this season. That’s it - that’s the league average mark this season.

The difference between 27th place and being a good, solid playoff team is not 13 goals over the last 50 games.

There goes that theory.  It is the offence in general.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Marvin said:

There goes that theory.  It is the offence in general.

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

[Marvin]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

O.K.  Now I get you.  Thanks.

[Thorner]

Sure every team (in the east) made the playoffs with a positive goal differential, but teams miss with positive differentials all the time. It’s not tangibly relevant to this season. OUR team isn’t making up that kind of ground with a mere 13 further goals. Mathematically, ~ 6 are going to be spread out over games we already won. Of the remaining 7, half come in games we lose regardless. Probably an extra 3.5 wins with an average PP: that seems about right. 7 more points and we are still in a tie for 18th. This is what I mean: you are shaving fine on an already bottom of the barrel goal.

When you haven’t made the playoffs in over an eon, surely we need to do better than that. That’s we’d be a positive differential team, maybe, with an improved pp isn’t enough given all of this context. If we don’t beat the Kings 7-0 the differential isn’t positive anymore. It’s way too frivolous, and devoid of context, to hang out hats on that. Maybe every positive differential team got in last year, but the minimum number in the east was +17. The year before it was +30.

please aim higher than a pp coaching change followed by putting your feet up, KA

[Crusader1969]

54 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

I agree 100%.  Changes need to be made.   I want to see 4 new forwards - 1 a skill guy (this could be a prospect) and 3 foot soldiers (vets) 

I also want a top pair RHD that will cost them a lot to acquire.   
 

and a vet goalie to pair with UPL.   
 

id love to see a new coach but if we are stuck with DG, we better see some experienced assistants for him to work with 

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

As for the PP, I'll  add it's not just a few more goals. They've given up a league leading 8 short handed goals against.   So not only are they $hit but they've killed them more than a few times by giving up a shorty 

again I'm not saying that to the only issue but it's the biggest reason they are out of it this year and it's only Feb