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2024 NHL DRAFT Talk

Spoonman

By Spoonman
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Archie Lee Fourth Liner

Archie Lee

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, dudacek said:

Very cool.

The fact that they identified (even that they could identify) all those things the eye test showed us about Benson through data collection is fascinating to read.

The part that I struggle with is:  where is the data coming from on 32,000 draft eligible players?  The article references puck management, puck battles, back checking, defensive commitment as measurable data points.  Some of these seem a bit subjective to me. Unless I'm missing something, an actual human being (or many human beings) would need to watch games and focus on individual players in order to track such data points?  Asking because I don't know the answer, not out of skepticism:  How is this done?  Who does it?  How can it be certain that the data is reliable?  With a prospect like Benson who has eyes on him all the time, I get it.  But when you get deeper into the pool, it's hard for me to fathom that this level of data exists or can be considered consistently reliable.  Again, I'm not really doubting so much as I'm struggling to comprehend. 

French Collection First Liner

French Collection

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

The latest Athletic Mock (podcast) has Iginla falling to us.  They think Calgary will go defence.

I listened to that one too. They were like many other mocks, no consensus on anyone from 2-12.

French Collection First Liner

French Collection

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

The part that I struggle with is:  where is the data coming from on 32,000 draft eligible players?  The

They have data on house league 18 year olds. 
The CHL has to be the largest entity of draft eleigible kids and the entire 3 leagues only have about 1500 players and something like 2/3 of them are draft eligible.

Archie Lee Fourth Liner

Archie Lee

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, French Collection said:

They have data on house league 18 year olds. 
The CHL has to be the largest entity of draft eleigible kids and the entire 3 leagues only have about 1500 players and something like 2/3 of them are draft eligible.

Sure, but again, who is collecting the data?  I'm assuming it isn't A.I..  The person who is charting the outcome of puck battles in Spokane will be different than the person who is doing it in Oshawa who is different from the person doing it in Stockholm.  Some of these data points seem subjective to me.  I'm not suggesting analytics are not valuable or that they are fake or anything of the sore, but I can't personally fathom how data for all these leagues/teams/players can be consistently reliable. 

pi2000 First Liner

pi2000

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Sure, but again, who is collecting the data?  I'm assuming it isn't A.I..  The person who is charting the outcome of puck battles in Spokane will be different than the person who is doing it in Oshawa who is different from the person doing it in Stockholm.  Some of these data points seem subjective to me.  I'm not suggesting analytics are not valuable or that they are fake or anything of the sore, but I can't personally fathom how data for all these leagues/teams/players can be consistently reliable. 

https://www.hudl.com/products/instat

French Collection First Liner

French Collection

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Sure, but again, who is collecting the data?  I'm assuming it isn't A.I..  The person who is charting the outcome of puck battles in Spokane will be different than the person who is doing it in Oshawa who is different from the person doing it in Stockholm.  Some of these data points seem subjective to me.  I'm not suggesting analytics are not valuable or that they are fake or anything of the sore, but I can't personally fathom how data for all these leagues/teams/players can be consistently reliable. 

I still can’t believe there are 32,000 draft eligible players.

You have to eliminate 31,500 of them almost immediately and then knock it down to like 200 by the draft.

Hey Kevyn, there’s this guy in Serbia’s U18 house league scoring 6 points a game, do you want to go see him?

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, French Collection said:

I still can’t believe there are 32,000 draft eligible players.

You have to eliminate 31,500 of them almost immediately and then knock it down to like 200 by the draft.

Hey Kevyn, there’s this guy in Serbia’s U18 house league scoring 6 points a game, do you want to go see him?

It certainly has to be worthwhile when it comes to creating scouting efficiency.

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

The part that I struggle with is:  where is the data coming from on 32,000 draft eligible players?  The article references puck management, puck battles, back checking, defensive commitment as measurable data points.  Some of these seem a bit subjective to me. Unless I'm missing something, an actual human being (or many human beings) would need to watch games and focus on individual players in order to track such data points?  Asking because I don't know the answer, not out of skepticism:  How is this done?  Who does it?  How can it be certain that the data is reliable?  With a prospect like Benson who has eyes on him all the time, I get it.  But when you get deeper into the pool, it's hard for me to fathom that this level of data exists or can be considered consistently reliable.  Again, I'm not really doubting so much as I'm struggling to comprehend. 

 

It raised the same questions for me, and then I asked myself 'wouldn't a PhD like Sam Ventura have considered the same questions?"

Sam has been at this for 10 years constantly refining projection models and data collection methods.

I sometimes forget that this is a multi-billion-dollar business, and a 1st-round draft pick has to be a ~$5M investment. I mean it's $3M on salary alone, never mind the scouting and coaching aspects.

Edited by dudacek
  • Agree 1
Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It certainly has to be worthwhile when it comes to creating scouting efficiency.

 

It raised the same questions for me, and then I asked myself 'wouldn't a PhD like Sam Ventura have considered the same questions?"

Sam has been at this for 10 years constantly refining projection models and data collection methods.

I sometimes forget that this is a multi-billion business, and a 1st-round draft pick has to be a ~$5M investment. I mean it's $3M on salary alone, never mind the scouting and coaching aspects.

And this is where having a billionaire owner SHOULD be a net positive rather than the net negative it's been for a solid decade.  Need to have (and maybe they've already made the case, we just haven't seen the results yet because the changes are too recent) the bright guys like Ventura show just how big the ROI is for spending on analytics and developing better models than everybody else has.

It's also interesting that Ventura is 4th on the org chart under Adams but the only VP of those 4.

  • Like (+1) 1
dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

If he fell to 11th he would be a steal. Special talent.

He’s a bit of a risk and not the best fit, but agreed.

This draft is packed with guys who might drop that could be top 5 some years and he’s one of them.

Flashsabre First Liner

Flashsabre

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s a bit of a risk and not the best fit, but agreed.

This draft is packed with guys who might drop that could be top 5 some years and he’s one of them.

You are right but the way teams change year to year who knows where the D corps is when he would be ready. Just take the best player.

ExWNYer Third Liner

ExWNYer

Posted
Posted
On 6/22/2024 at 3:46 PM, French Collection said:

I still can’t believe there are 32,000 draft eligible players.

You have to eliminate 31,500 of them almost immediately and then knock it down to like 200 by the draft.

Hey Kevyn, there’s this guy in Serbia’s U18 house league scoring 6 points a game, do you want to go see him?

"Does he want to be in Buffalo?"

  • Haha (+1) 1
LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted (edited)

Did the draft simulator for the first 4 round and got the following:

11: Tij Iginla, 6' C/W

43: Cole Beaudoin, 6'2" C

76: Noel Fransen, 6' LHD

108: Sam O'Reilly, 6'1" C/W

109: Lukas Fischer, 6'4" LHD 

Second try:

11: Cayden Lindstrom, 6'4" C

43: Charlie Elick, 6'3" RHD

76: Sam O'Reilly, 6'1" C/W

108: Tarin Smith, 6'1" LHD

109: AJ Spellacy, 6'3" C

Edited by LGR4GM
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