2024 NHL DRAFT Talk

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, French Collection said:

There are no consensus picks after Celebrini but most lists have Helenius around 7-12. His performance in Liiga was really good for a 17 year old. My concern with him at 3 is he turns out more like Kakko than Barkov.

Comes down risk management practices of GMs. Yzerman is a good example, he has leaned into players with higher floors but lower ceilings (IMO) versus looking at guys with high ceilings but more bust potential. That doesn't mean a guy can't have a good floor and a high ceiling btw. Seider or Benson are examples of guys with high floors and ceilings. I think Helenius and Nygaard for that matter both have high floors, they also have good ceilings but as a GM do you want a middle 6 guy with a long shot on top line or do you want a guy like Eiserman who might be a 3rd line type or even just a PP specialist but also could end up as a beastly 1st line 40g scoring winger? 

This isn't a ranking btw or a judgement on who we or anyone should draft. Just a thought on how GMs may look at different players. Helenius as you say could be Kakko or Barkov but Eiserman could be Matthews (his goal scoring) or Michael Dal Colle. So how do you way those risks helps to define your list. 

Note: Yzerman does not only lean towards high floor players, but has a few times. It was just an example and not an indictment or commentary on how he will draft this year. 

Note2: Jim Nill has taken a bit of the opposite approach and Wyatt Johnson is the perfect example. Guy with lots of flashes and a high ceiling but also the chance of washing out as a 3/4 line guy. He went with a high ceiling player and it hit.

Note3: I lean towards high ceiling. It is why I will be more drawn to Eiserman over Nygaard but that doesn't make it the correct choice. This is where our ability and info fails because we would need to really understand how these players brains work. That Benson-esque mindset of I can impose how I play hockey on you because I can. Does Eiserman have that in him? Does Nygaard? It all goes into player evaluation and that is the hard part. 

[Flashsabre]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Comes down risk management practices of GMs. Yzerman is a good example, he has leaned into players with higher floors but lower ceilings (IMO) versus looking at guys with high ceilings but more bust potential. That doesn't mean a guy can't have a good floor and a high ceiling btw. Seider or Benson are examples of guys with high floors and ceilings. I think Helenius and Nygaard for that matter both have high floors, they also have good ceilings but as a GM do you want a middle 6 guy with a long shot on top line or do you want a guy like Eiserman who might be a 3rd line type or even just a PP specialist but also could end up as a beastly 1st line 40g scoring winger? 

This isn't a ranking btw or a judgement on who we or anyone should draft. Just a thought on how GMs may look at different players. Helenius as you say could be Kakko or Barkov but Eiserman could be Matthews (his goal scoring) or Michael Dal Colle. So how do you way those risks helps to define your list. 

Note: Yzerman does not only lean towards high floor players, but has a few times. It was just an example and not an indictment or commentary on how he will draft this year. 

Note2: Jim Nill has taken a bit of the opposite approach and Wyatt Johnson is the perfect example. Guy with lots of flashes and a high ceiling but also the chance of washing out as a 3/4 line guy. He went with a high ceiling player and it hit.

Note3: I lean towards high ceiling. It is why I will be more drawn to Eiserman over Nygaard but that doesn't make it the correct choice. This is where our ability and info fails because we would need to really understand how these players brains work. That Benson-esque mindset of I can impose how I play hockey on you because I can. Does Eiserman have that in him? Does Nygaard? It all goes into player evaluation and that is the hard part. 

Wyatt Johnson is a good example of drafting being an imperfect science. He was a talented minor player putting up 94 points as a minor midget in the GTHL. Then his first season in Windsor he only puts up 32 points in 50 games before Covid shut down his season. 
 

Nill took the chance on him and he comes back the next year and leads all of junior hockey with 124 points in 64 games and leads the O in playoff scoring. He has never looked back.

But for every talented kid that makes a jump like that there are dozens that never make the jump.

I would say on the whole Nill and Dallas has done better than any team with its drafting the past 3+ years.

[SabreFinn]

7 hours ago, French Collection said:

There are no consensus picks after Celebrini but most lists have Helenius around 7-12. His performance in Liiga was really good for a 17 year old. My concern with him at 3 is he turns out more like Kakko than Barkov.

Think he will be somewhere between Barkov and Kakko, closer to Kakko.

And I would like to add that what I think we really need to draft now, with the prospects we already have, is heart and soul players. Unfortunately it is pretty hard to scout that when the players are 17-18 years old. So I vote for the safe pick.

Edited May 23 by SabreFinn

[Flashsabre]

2 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

Think he will be somewhere between Barkov and Kakko, closer to Kakko.

And I would like to add that what I think we really need to draft now, with the prospects we already have, is heart and soul players. Unfortunately it is pretty hard to scout that when the players are 17-18 years old. So I vote for the safe pick.

Do you see Helenius as a heart and soul player?

[SabreFinn]

6 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Do you see Helenius as a heart and soul player?

I think he is a player that thinks team and teammates first. But I have not heard what his personality is like.

When it comes to Europeans,except from the Swedes, their English speaking is usually not that good. This is something that especially is a problem for us Finns, and despite that we are a shy and silent people, not all, but many. That is things that matters when you draft a kid and hope for them to develop into stars.

Long answer on a simple short question. But drafting and developing is a complex thing imo.

[Flashsabre]

What a weird trade a month before the draft. This is the kind of deal usually made night of when you see who is available at that spot.

[stinky finger]

On 5/23/2024 at 9:18 AM, LGR4GM said:

Comes down risk management practices of GMs. Yzerman is a good example, he has leaned into players with higher floors but lower ceilings (IMO) versus looking at guys with high ceilings but more bust potential. That doesn't mean a guy can't have a good floor and a high ceiling btw. Seider or Benson are examples of guys with high floors and ceilings. I think Helenius and Nygaard for that matter both have high floors, they also have good ceilings but as a GM do you want a middle 6 guy with a long shot on top line or do you want a guy like Eiserman who might be a 3rd line type or even just a PP specialist but also could end up as a beastly 1st line 40g scoring winger? 

This isn't a ranking btw or a judgement on who we or anyone should draft. Just a thought on how GMs may look at different players. Helenius as you say could be Kakko or Barkov but Eiserman could be Matthews (his goal scoring) or Michael Dal Colle. So how do you way those risks helps to define your list. 

Note: Yzerman does not only lean towards high floor players, but has a few times. It was just an example and not an indictment or commentary on how he will draft this year. 

Note2: Jim Nill has taken a bit of the opposite approach and Wyatt Johnson is the perfect example. Guy with lots of flashes and a high ceiling but also the chance of washing out as a 3/4 line guy. He went with a high ceiling player and it hit.

Note3: I lean towards high ceiling. It is why I will be more drawn to Eiserman over Nygaard but that doesn't make it the correct choice. This is where our ability and info fails because we would need to really understand how these players brains work. That Benson-esque mindset of I can impose how I play hockey on you because I can. Does Eiserman have that in him? Does Nygaard? It all goes into player evaluation and that is the hard part. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

What a weird trade a month before the draft. This is the kind of deal usually made night of when you see who is available at that spot.

I'd definitely wait until draft night but lou gonna lou. 

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

What a weird trade a month before the draft. This is the kind of deal usually made night of when you see who is available at that spot.

Yeah, I’m picking 20 and I hear you want my guy at 18. That’s when I make a move.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

Yeah, I’m picking 20 and I hear you want my guy at 18. That’s when I make a move.

But this far out… it’s like Chicago already knows the favorites at 18/19 or… Lou really wants that extra 2nd.

You never know — you could swing those two 2nds for a Fasching and a D-Lo. 

[DarthEbriate]

46 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

I’m not set on my Star Wars names yet, but I am open to Catton or Eiserman at 11. More snarl would be nice, but that can be found elsewhere.

[Flashsabre]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

And Catton didn’t do that on a stacked team with a lot of supporting weapons either.

If he somehow falls to 11 than you run to the podium. I don’t think he does though.

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

But this far out… it’s like Chicago already knows the favorites at 18/19 or… Lou really wants that extra 2nd.

You never know — you could swing those two 2nds for a Fasching and a D-Lo. 

No that’s what I meant, I make my move at the draft at pick 18.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

And Catton didn’t do that on a stacked team with a lot of supporting weapons either.

If he somehow falls to 11 than you run to the podium. I don’t think he does though.

Roulette is good but that's pretty much it. I think he has a bunch of pp points but I'm lazy. Still, I'd knock a mofo over to get the stage to take him at 11.

[Flashsabre]

Parekth putting on a show tonight at the Memorial Cup.

Looks like Erik Karlsson out there (the good parts of his game)

[French Collection]

15 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Parekth putting on a show tonight at the Memorial Cup.

Looks like Erik Karlsson out there (the good parts of his game)

Yeah, he’s flying and driving play. I still am leery of him in the NHL. He’s a defenseman who just wants to play forward.

[French Collection]

I just finished looking at 8 of some draft lists that are often looked at.

Some of these are from April so there will be some tweaks to most of them.

I ranked the players by their average rank for the 8 lists, similar to what Elite Prospects does in their consolidated list. I also included the range they were in for the 8 lists.

I only went to 20 because it really gets muddled after that and the Sabres shouldn’t be reaching beyond this group.

1 M.Celebrini 1  1

2 I.Demidov 2-3  2.25

3 A.Levshunov 2-9  4.25

4 C.Lindstrom 2-11  6.25

5 B.Catton 3-12  7.13

6 S.Dickinson 4-10  7.13

7 A. Silyalev 3-13  7.25

8 Z.Buium 5-10  7.25

9 Z.Parekh 6-17  9

10 C.Eiserman 5-16  11.63

11 T.Iginla 9-23  11.63

12 C.Yakemchuk 5-25  12.25

13 K.Helenius 4-19  12.5

14 L.Greentree 9-19  13.75

15 M. Brandsegg-Nygard 7-21  14.38

16 T.Connelly 12-23  17.5

17 B.Sennecke 13-27  18.13

18 A.Jiricek 12-25  18.63

19 I.Chenyshov 14-24  18.88

20 M.Hage 17-29  20.88

[SDBillsfan]

I feel like out of that top eleven, I could live with any of them with the possible exception of Eiserman. In addition, I could be very happy with Yakemchuk, Sennecke or  maybe to a slightly lesser extent, Helenius. 

[Jorcus]

What are the chances of getting a functional NHL player in the draft? I did a little exercise with the thought that someone who plays 500 games in the NHL has found a way to serve a purpose on a team. I looked at skaters drafted in the top 10 from 2000 to 2015. Not including goalies you end up with 112/153 for 73%. A few more will make it from the 2015 class but the point is this. It is very hard to draft a player so if you can get someone decent for a pick go right ahead and do it. Beyond the top ten odds will drop fast.   

[LGR4GM]

1. Mack Celebrini
2. Artyom Levushunov
3. Carter Yakemchuk
4. Anton Silayev
5. Zeev Buium
6. Berkly Catton
7. Beckett Sennecke
8. Ivan Demidov
9. Zayne Parekh
10. Cayden Lindstrom
11. Sam Dickinson
12. Stian Solberg
13. Tij Iginla
14. Konda Helenius
15. Adam Jiricek
16. Cole Eiserman
17. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
18. Igor Chernyshov
19. Jett Luchanko
20. Cole Beaudoin

[Flashsabre]

44 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

1. Mack Celebrini
2. Artyom Levushunov
3. Carter Yakemchuk
4. Anton Silayev
5. Zeev Buium
6. Berkly Catton
7. Beckett Sennecke
8. Ivan Demidov
9. Zayne Parekh
10. Cayden Lindstrom
11. Sam Dickinson
12. Stian Solberg
13. Tij Iginla
14. Konda Helenius
15. Adam Jiricek
16. Cole Eiserman
17. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
18. Igor Chernyshov
19. Jett Luchanko
20. Cole Beaudin 

To me Sam Dickinson is the best dman in the draft. The kid can do it all and being coached by Hunter he has been developed properly for the NHL game. These other dmen have “measurables” but as far as being good at playing the position he is the best defender available. Buium would be a close second.

Edited May 28 by Flashsabre

[LGR4GM]

 

[Flashsabre]

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2024/05/my-final-top-50-ohl-players-for-2024_28.html?m=1

[Flashsabre]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I watched Senneke in Oshawa last year and thought he was a smart talented player at 5’10. Now at 6’2-6’3 he is even more impressive.

Remeinds me a lot of a bigger Jack Quinn. Not just the play style but that the upside is unreal.

Edited May 28 by Flashsabre