UPL's next contract

[SabreFinn]

As long as there is no clauses that makes trading difficult I am fine with 4milj. not more than that, he is not experienced enough.

[Pimlach]

14 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Marek has gone into detail about this. The prevailing thought in some circles around the league is that UPL has had to do everything he can to prove that he belongs in the NHL, while Levi has to prove that he doesn’t belong. 
 

There was disagreement earlier in season about where Levi belonged this season. Granato wanted to ride him in the NHL while others in the FO felt Rochester was the best path forward.  Levi was given the starting job before TC began this year. 
 

Also last season once Levi was signed, UPL wasn’t even dressed as the backup for the last games of the season. 

This all sound like petty BS.  UPL had not earned a thing up until late January' 24, and neither did Levi for that matter.   None of this should impact contract negotiations unless Adams lets it.  

I did hear grumblings that last season some players were upset that Levi was plugged in for those late season games, and UPL was out.  

Is this team cliquey or what? 

[Thorner]

17 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Marek has gone into detail about this. The prevailing thought in some circles around the league is that UPL has had to do everything he can to prove that he belongs in the NHL, while Levi has to prove that he doesn’t belong. 
 

There was disagreement earlier in season about where Levi belonged this season. Granato wanted to ride him in the NHL while others in the FO felt Rochester was the best path forward.  Levi was given the starting job before TC began this year. 
 

Also last season once Levi was signed, UPL wasn’t even dressed as the backup for the last games of the season. 

This is infuriating practice from the organization if true 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

This is infuriating practice from the organization if true 

Was there a Sabrespacer who had UPL ahead of Levi in September?

I can remember being dismissed every time I tried to suggest UPL hadn’t finished developing yet and being told emphatically that he hadn’t even proven himself a competent AHL goalie yet. 

UPL was 3/7/2 in February and March of last year. His GAA was over 4 and his S% was under .870.

He was handed the keys and the above is what he did. Levi was then handed the keys and he won.

If he had fallen behind Levi in the pecking order, he had no one to blame but himself.

And when the play level changed this fall, so did the pecking order.

Isnt that the way it’s supposed to work?

 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Was there a Sabrespacer who had UPL ahead of Levi in September?

I can remember being dismissed every time I tried to suggest UPL hadn’t finished developing yet and being told emphatically that he hadn’t even proven himself a competent AHL goalie yet. 

UPL was 3/7/2 in February and March of last year. His GAA was over 4 and his S% was under .870.

He was handed the keys and the above is what he did. Levi was then handed the keys and he won.

If he had fallen behind Levi in the pecking order, he had no one to blame but himself.

And when the play level changed this fall, so did the pecking order.

Isnt that the way it’s supposed to work?

 

You are framing your argument to me as if I was one who was arguing UPL was ready. I was not. 

Are you just professionally carrying water now again because it’s the offseason? Are we going to get another rah-rah about actually needing to have expectations, chastising the fans who don’t, and then another full retraction if we miss? JK. 

Anointing Levi the starter was bad. Is this an argument I have to strain to make? The comp isn’t just sabres relative: it’s league relative. Levi ended up an AHLer this year. The guy we anointed with the starting job (BEFORE CAMP. Camp battles need not apply I guess) ended up an AHLer this season in actuality. A big part of the reason we missed the playoffs was the handling of the goaltending in the first few months of the season.

That we “didn’t have anyone better” isn’t a mitigating factor in mistakenly annoying a child as the starter 

the goalie output (up to and including the good results in the second half of the year) are a product of Adams *4 years* in office not just a product of the daily decisions of training camp 2023

If Adams made the right decision by the prism of the moment, which is arguable, the prism itself was poorly constructed and faulty: that’s the entire point. At least by way of the goal of making the playoffs: which we are supposed to be measuring by. If that’s not the case anymore, just let me know 

Edited May 6 by Thorny

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You are framing your argument to me as if I was one who was arguing UPL was ready. I was not. 

Are you just professionally carrying water now again because it’s the offseason? Are we going to get another rah-rah about actually needing to have expectations, chastising the fans who don’t, and then another full retraction if we miss?

Anointing Levi the starter was bad. Is this an argument I have to strain to make? The comp isn’t just sabres relative: it’s league relative. Levi ended up an AHLer this year. The guy we anointed with the starting job ended up an AHLer this season in actuality. A big part of the reason we missed the playoffs was the handling of the goaltending in the first few months of the season.

That we “didn’t have anyone better” isn’t a mitigating factor in mistakenly annoying a child as the starter 

the goalie output (up to and including the good results in the second half of the year) are a product of Adams *4 years* in office not just a product of the daily decisions of training camp 2023

Actually, I was kinda ranting about UPL being pissed off about not getting “a fair shot,” if indeed that was the case.

Second paragraph is both a misrepresentation of my feelings and kinda dickish.

Sorry you feel that way. I’ve obviously overstayed my welcome.

 

[Mango]

23 hours ago, Pimlach said:

What?   This is soft and more soft.   

When did he get skipped over?   The Sabres refused to bring in a real NHL for several seasons waiting for someone to take the job.  

I think this is Adams speak. Kind of like when he says "We have enough resources to win" when asked about whether or not Terry will spend 

The fact of the matter is that this franchise has been bottom half of the league in spending 7 of the last 9 years. At this point I think that the "developing youth" is a convenient answer rather than a design. I am tempted to think it is the reverse and that the design is low spend and the result is a young team. 

Edited May 6 by Mango
words

[Thorner]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Actually, I was kinda ranting about UPL being pissed off about not getting “a fair shot,” if indeed that was the case.

Second paragraph is both a misrepresentation of my feelings and kinda dickish.

Sorry you feel that way. I’ve obviously overstayed my welcome.

 

I think you’ll find you are justifiably and rightly welcomed with open arms for your excellent posting. That’s rather obvious and not something that would ever change. My viewpoint need not apply: Am I butthurt because you implied I wasn’t a hardcore fan? Sure, but there’s a lot of that going around rn apparently.

There was nothing in Brawndo’s post about UPL being pissed off (unless I missed it) so yes i had no idea that’s what you were alluding to in your post 

Edited May 6 by Thorny

[mjd1001]

5 hours ago, Pimlach said:

This all sound like petty BS.  UPL had not earned a thing up until late January' 24, and neither did Levi for that matter.   None of this should impact contract negotiations unless Adams lets it.  

I did hear grumblings that last season some players were upset that Levi was plugged in for those late season games, and UPL was out.  

Is this team cliquey or what? 

UPL, from Jan 1 through the end of the year, was: 20w and 16L, a .919 save percentage and 2.31 GAA.  That alone would not impact how much I pay him.

UPL, from the start of the season through Jan 1 was: 7w 10L, an .892 save percentage and 3.13 GAA. That alone would not impact how much I pay him.

His entire season, he was 27w, 26L, .910 save perentage and 2.31 gaa.  THOSE are the numbers I would use to evaluate him because it includes EVERYTHING he did.  

(If anything, I MIGHT slightly skew toward the end of the season, as if there was any 'development' that is when it would show...but still, don't cherry pick. He is who he was the entire season)

His entire season, the good, and the bad, should impact negotiations.  That was .910 and 2.31...for a single (most recent) season in his career.

[Mango]

47 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You are framing your argument to me as if I was one who was arguing UPL was ready. I was not. 

Are you just professionally carrying water now again because it’s the offseason? Are we going to get another rah-rah about actually needing to have expectations, chastising the fans who don’t, and then another full retraction if we miss? JK. 

Anointing Levi the starter was bad. Is this an argument I have to strain to make? The comp isn’t just sabres relative: it’s league relative. Levi ended up an AHLer this year. The guy we anointed with the starting job (BEFORE CAMP. Camp battles need not apply I guess) ended up an AHLer this season in actuality. A big part of the reason we missed the playoffs was the handling of the goaltending in the first few months of the season.

That we “didn’t have anyone better” isn’t a mitigating factor in mistakenly annoying a child as the starter 

the goalie output (up to and including the good results in the second half of the year) are a product of Adams *4 years* in office not just a product of the daily decisions of training camp 2023

If Adams made the right decision by the prism of the moment, which is arguable, the prism itself was poorly constructed and faulty: that’s the entire point. At least by way of the goal of making the playoffs: which we are supposed to be measuring by. If that’s not the case anymore, just let me know 

I think similar to Levi, UPL would be a bit further in his development if he wasn't yoinked around the AHL and NHL. A fully committed season or two as an AHL starter would have gone a long way. 

Being better than a bad goal NHL goaltender isn't a great reason to force a kid into playing full time in the NHL. Part of having proper development is having a quality onboarding plan into the NHL. "We don't have anybody better' isn't a plan. 

[Thorner]

15 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think this is Adams speak. Kind of like when he says "We have enough resources to win" when asked about whether or not Terry can spend. 

The fact of the matter is that this franchise has been bottom half of the league in 7 of the last 9 years. At this point I think that the "developing youth" is a convenient answer rather than a design. I am tempted to think it is the reverse and that the design is low spend and the result is a young team. 

7 of 9? Which 2 years did we finish 16th or up? 

I could be wrong but I feel like our highest finish since 13 years ago was 12 years ago and 19th

19th lol 

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

7 of 9? Which 2 years did we finish 16th or up? 

2018-19 they were 14th. 
2019-20 they were 9th.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

2018-19 they were 14th. 
2019-20 they were 9th.

I’m so lost 

OH bottom half spending? 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I’m so lost 

OH bottom half spending? 

Sorry about that. Brain is faster than my fingers. 

[kas23]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

UPL, from Jan 1 through the end of the year, was: 20w and 16L, a .919 save percentage and 2.31 GAA.  That alone would not impact how much I pay him.

UPL, from the start of the season through Jan 1 was: 7w 10L, an .892 save percentage and 3.13 GAA. That alone would not impact how much I pay him.

His entire season, he was 27w, 26L, .910 save perentage and 2.31 gaa.  THOSE are the numbers I would use to evaluate him because it includes EVERYTHING he did.  

(If anything, I MIGHT slightly skew toward the end of the season, as if there was any 'development' that is when it would show...but still, don't cherry pick. He is who he was the entire season)

His entire season, the good, and the bad, should impact negotiations.  That was .910 and 2.31...for a single (most recent) season in his career.

He might just say he wants a 1-year deal to prove he’s the guy from the 2nd half of the season. He’d be betting on himself and if he truly is the 2nd half guy, he’s either going to end up “needing a change” or be very expensive. And with Ruff behind the bench, who’s a big UPL fan btw and will force our D to be better in front of him, I’d bet he’s the guy from the 2nd half too. 

[dudacek]

Adams tells WGR talks with UPL are underway and positive.

Says getting players in their prime is important and UPL is entering his prime.

[Brawndo]

Evolving Hockey’s most likely contract projection is 4 years at 5.1 AAV

[LGR4GM]

38 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Evolving Hockey’s most likely contract projection is 4 years at 5.1 AAV

thxs

 

 

... i hate it

[Archie Lee]

19 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Evolving Hockey’s most likely contract projection is 4 years at 5.1 AAV

The alternative is probably a one year Swayman deal ($3.5 ish).  A two year deal takes UPL to UFA status. If we want some of his UFA years, then I think we will need to approach $5 million per. Lots of risk either way. 

[nfreeman]

23 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Evolving Hockey’s most likely contract projection is 4 years at 5.1 AAV

I'd much prefer a 3-year deal, but if this is what's needed to get it done, I think they have to do it.

[French Collection]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I'd much prefer a 3-year deal, but if this is what's needed to get it done, I think they have to do it.

Goalies are weird so he could regress and flame out. I don’t think that will be the case here. He is still on an upward trajectory imo but he may get passed by Levi, which makes that a lot of $ for a backup.

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Goalies are weird so he could regress and flame out. I don’t think that will be the case here. He is still on an upward trajectory imo but he may get passed by Levi, which makes that a lot of $ for a backup.

Yes -- I would just add that most of them are pretty up-and-down.  There is certainly the possibility that they give him a 3- or 4-year deal, he stinks right away and we are screwed.  But I agree that the most likely outcome is that he is decent-to-good and, with Levi, gives the Sabres a solid goalie tandem for the duration of his contract.

[PerreaultForever]

On 5/7/2024 at 11:11 AM, Brawndo said:

Evolving Hockey’s most likely contract projection is 4 years at 5.1 AAV

This is an overpay but, given that Adams has no other goalie plan, it may be necessary. 

 

5 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

The alternative is probably a one year Swayman deal ($3.5 ish).  A two year deal takes UPL to UFA status. If we want some of his UFA years, then I think we will need to approach $5 million per. Lots of risk either way. 

The one year deal like Swayman had would be a better and safer option. UPL delivers a good season under Ruff's system and he can then earn a long term deal. 

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is an overpay but, given that Adams has no other goalie plan, it may be necessary. 

 

The one year deal like Swayman had would be a better and safer option. UPL delivers a good season under Ruff's system and he can then earn a long term deal. 

4 x 5 seems fine to me I dunno 

[dudacek]

7 goalies make $6M or more. 17 make 5 $5M or more.

Here’s a look at your recent 3rd contract RFA comparables.

UPL: (2024)

5 years pro, 100 NHL games, 1 season of good numbers as a starter

Matt Murray (2020) 4X6.25M

6 years pro, 199 NHL games, 4 seasons of good numbers as a starter, Stanley Cup

Cal Petersen (2021) 3x$5M (signed extension a year before he would have become a UFA)

4 years pro, 54 NHL games, good numbers but no season as a full-time starter

Thatcher Demko (2021) 5x$5M

5 years pro, 72 NHL games, good numbers, 1 abbreviated season as an NHL starter

Ville Husso (2022) 3x4.75

6 years pro, 57 NHL games with good numbers, 1 abbreviated season as an NHL starter

Filip Gustafson (2023) 3x3.75

5 years pro, 66 NHL games, 1 season with good numbers as an NHL starter

Alexander Georgiev (2022) 3x3.4M

5 years pro, 129 NHL games with good numbers, none of them as a starter

Vitek Vanecek (2022) 3x3.4M

6 years pro, 79 NHL games, 1 year with good numbers as a starter

Stuart Skinner (2023) 3x2.6M (signed mid-way through 1st season as a starter)

5 years pro, 30ish NHL games, 1/2 year of good numbers as a starter

 

You gotta think UPL is looking for a Demko deal, the Sabres a Gustafson.