UPL's next contract

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

I have been told on this and other forums that NHL GM's don't plan for the cap 3, 4, 5 years in advance. But I am also told on this and other message boards that we will be getting insane value in years 5, 6, and 7 on Cozens, Power, and Thompson. I whish people would pick a lane. 

Right now, gun to my head, I would rather have Mitts and UPL over either Cozens or Power. In fact, if you asked me to pick my favorite pairing of that group of 4 it would b Mitts/UPL. 

All I can say is don't believe everything you read on the internet.  Maybe GMs don't plan for 5 years down because most get fired in 4 years if they have no success at all.  Good hockey operations VPs do plan down the road and control what the GM is doing.  Terry is that guy for final say on the payroll.

The theory behind Cozens, Tage, and Powers contracts is the exact opposite than what you are being told,  in years 5, 6, 7 those contracts should be a  bargain - the cap goes up and there is inflation.   This all assumes that Cozens, Tage, and Power become stars in the league and maintain a high and consistent level of play.   

So far Cozens and Tage have slipped after two years of very solid growth in their game- there is no reason to believe that they don't bounce back better next season.  Both are very talented and work hard.  Power is the one that concerns me.  Being a young defenseman it could be mid-20's before he is worth the contract he was given - that is why a bridge was safer but it had the risk of not being able to retain him longer term.  

Mitts is a nice player and just now reaching peak years for forwards from 25 to 29 years old.  He is more consistent that Cozens right now, I am not sure Mitts will be the better player, I still believe that Cozens will be.  

UPL is looking great.  But he could be like Binnington - flashes of greatness and then he settles out into a decent #1 that can get hot from time to time.  With Levi on board you can bridge UPL and still have a solid prospect in the wings. 

Power is the only concerning contract to me.  I don't see Cozens or Tage falling off a cliff, but anything can happen I guess.  

Edited February 26 by Pimlach

[Brawndo]

49 minutes ago, Mango said:

My point is that Terry and Kevyn like having a data point to fall back on. Of course you and I know the org was stooopid for letting Ullmark go. But for the average fan in the FB comments (not on team specific message boards and following closely) this provides them a bit of curtain to hide behind. "We didn't extend him because the analytics say....."

Not having a legitimate replacement for Ullmark was a mistake . 

Not trading Ullmark at the TDL was a mistake

Linus Ullmark said it himself in an interview with Christine Simpson from Sportsnet, that it was time to move on from Buffalo. He mentioned when His Father passed away he was alone in Buffalo( His Family had to stay in Sweden because of COVID) as a result it put Him in a dark place and he said for His Own Mental Wellbeing it was time to move on. 
 

And Granato’s Player Usage at times is proof the analytics department isn’t always listened to. 

[PickaPecaPickles]

On 2/26/2024 at 1:43 PM, Brawndo said:

Not having a legitimate replacement for Ullmark was a mistake . 

Not trading Ullmark at the TDL was a mistake

Linus Ullmark said it himself in an interview with Christine Simpson from Sportsnet, that it was time to move on from Buffalo. He mentioned when His Father passed away he was alone in Buffalo( His Family had to stay in Sweden because of COVID) as a result it put Him in a dark place and he said for His Own Mental Wellbeing it was time to move on. 
 

And Granato’s Player Usage at times is proof the analytics department isn’t always listened to. 

Speaking of Ullmark, UPL has moved above him in the save % standings and is now in the top 10.

[Mr. Allen]

25 minutes ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

Speaking of Ullmark, UPL has moved above him in the save % standings and is now in the top 10.

Dang.  Where did this come from?  I love it.  In the beginning of the season there were so many posters on here saying to waive or trade UPL to make room for our “definite” 1A Levi.  
Some people here were laughing when someone asked who the starter this year was going to be and didn’t automatically anoint Levi as the obvious choice.  

[PerreaultForever]

On 2/26/2024 at 9:52 AM, Pimlach said:

UPL is looking great.  But he could be like Binnington - flashes of greatness and then he settles out into a decent #1 that can get hot from time to time.  With Levi on board you can bridge UPL and still have a solid prospect in the wings. 

Or worse. The body of work isn't nearly enough for a big deal and goalies are super weird. He could come back next season and be lights out superstar, or he could drop back to AHL level play it's impossible to say. There are lots of young goalies who have had big early career breakout years and then become dumpster fires the next season. Some get it together and in a few more years settle into being solid goalies but others disappear and bounce around the AHL for the next decade. Impossible to know. 

It's a difficult decision.

 

[PickaPecaPickles]

11 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

Dang.  Where did this come from?  I love it.  In the beginning of the season there were so many posters on here saying to waive or trade UPL to make room for our “definite” 1A Levi.  
Some people here were laughing when someone asked who the starter this year was going to be and didn’t automatically anoint Levi as the obvious choice.  

I admit, I was a doubter too. 

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

As low as 3x3, but I expect a 3x3.339.

[Stads]

Edited March 3 by Stads

[Berg]

He can get 2.5 mil.  per year in any other team and don't have so much hate from fans and problems in defense like he have in Buffalo..

[Sabres Fan in NS]

More and more each game.  He is earning a fat contract.  Not the standard 7 x $7M contract though.

I still say 5 x $5M, maybe 5 x $4.5M.

[Hank]

1 hour ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

More and more each game.  He is earning a fat contract.  Not the standard 7 x $7M contract though.

I still say 5 x $5M, maybe 5 x $4.5M.

I think you're a bit high on both term and dollars. I think Adams signs him for three years between 3.5-4M. 

[Buffalo Super Fan]

I have changed my mind on UPL he has won me over to the point I would make an attempt to resign him. So I moved off letting UPL walk away. But with that said I would like the Buffalo Sabres to sign UPL to a short term contract nothing long term. If UPL wants long term like Linus Ullmark I would walk away. No more long term Buffalo Sabres contracts for 7 years that is a huge part of the present Buffalo Sabres problems no incentives once the Sabres player signs the long term contract. I really believe the Sabres management ruined these players with long term contracts going back to Tyler Myers which I realize wasn’t the present Sabres management but just saying long term contracts for cost certainty for the Sabres owner is great but for the Sabres fans wanting to win I am not sure about that. I prefer the NFL contracts where you can walk away if a player gets lazy and his play doesn’t match his salary compensation. The NHL and MLB baseball the huge long term contracts are great for the players, owners but terrible for the fans in my opinion. Go Sabres! Let’s Go Buffalo 

[Archie Lee]

Thatcher Demko was a 2nd rd pick in 2014.  In March 2021, during the late-starting covid year, he signed a 5 year extension with the Canucks at $5 million per season.  At the time of the extension he had played 62 games, had a career save % of .910 and was 34-31-4.  In 2020-21, the year he signed his extension, he finished with a .915 save %, which was good for 15th in the NHL that season. The league average save % that season was .908. Demko was 25 years 3 months when he signed the extension.

UPL was a 2nd rd pick in 2017. He's played in 84 NHL games. He is 39-35-8 with a .904 save %. This season he has a .914 save % (tied for 11th with Demko).  The league avg save % this year is .903.  UPL will be 25 years old on March 9th.

I can't recall if people thought the Demko deal was a good one at the time?  I do remember thinking that it was the benchmark for any deal if we wanted to keep Ullmark.  

There are 25 goalies in the NHL with a cap hit of $4 million and higher this season. 19 at $5 million and higher.  

Edited March 5 by Archie Lee

[mjd1001]

If, a big IF UPL keeps playing this way, is there a chance he gets into the final 3 for the Vezina?

 

For the year right now, among goalies with enough to qualify for the lead in stats:

-7th in Save percentage, .915, now only .007 off of the lead (.922)

-4th in Goals against average, 2.42, now only 0.13 off the lead (2.29)

 

And up to date, since the beginning of the calendar year (Jan 1):

-1st in save percentage, .932

-1st in Goals against average, 1.90

-1st in shutouts, 3

-He's even tied for 1st in penalty minutes, 4

 

Again, bit "if" should he continue to play at this level, but if he should, he should be approaching the league lead in those major stats.

[Mr. Allen]

I know Ulmark had a better career to date, but UPL is playing better than Ulmark ever did, especially in a contract year and Ulmark signed for what?  
I don’t think we’re getting UPL for cheap.  

[Buffalo Super Fan]

I would go short term contract with no guarantees for next season because goalies can be flashes in the pan sometimes. I don’t think the Buffalo Sabres should promise him the number one goalie job. And I would definitely bring another veteran goalie in to push UPL. Because last thing you want as a Sabres fan is to overpay UPL give him long term and then his play drops off. Then the Buffalo Sabres are stuck with him hoping and wishing his game comes back on a contract year makes me nervous that it could be Tage Thompson all over again. With one great season and then back to where he was before his great season. UPL like Tage Thompson were late bloomers be careful with that. I think last year was Tage Thompson career year I am not sure Tage Thompson will ever get to that level again. I hope I am wrong but I have real doubts about Tage Thompson or Alex Tuch ever leading the Buffalo Sabres to a Stanley Cup championship. I don’t think they are talented enough or have it in them again hope I am wrong in my opinion. Go Sabres! Let’s Go Buffalo 

 

[French Collection]

12 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

I know Ulmark had a better career to date, but UPL is playing better than Ulmark ever did, especially in a contract year and Ulmark signed for what?  
I don’t think we’re getting UPL for cheap.  

Probably no discount on UPL but Ullmark was a UFA.

UPL doesn’t’t get the standard 7x7M but a 3 or 4 year deal seems reasonable. If Joker is moved he may get a little miffed though.

[Ducky]

10m over 3 years.

Levi in Rochester next year, backing up UPL the year after and hopefully taking the reins the year after that.

 

Samsonov, DeSmith and Brossoit would be other options.

[Brawndo]

From Jeff Marek’s Rink Fries

 

Speaking of netminders the Buffalo Sabres' negotiations with their RFA goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen should be fascinating to follow. It’s no secret UPL has been miffed at times with how he’s felt skipped over and for good reason. 

As the Sabres enter a phase where their big contracts all kick in and they need to watch every dollar closely, let’s see where the decimal point lands for their No. 1 goalie. I’m guessing somewhere between $4-5 million on a five-year deal. We’ll see.

[Pimlach]

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

From Jeff Marek’s Rink Fries

 

Speaking of netminders the Buffalo Sabres' negotiations with their RFA goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen should be fascinating to follow. It’s no secret UPL has been miffed at times with how he’s felt skipped over and for good reason. 

As the Sabres enter a phase where their big contracts all kick in and they need to watch every dollar closely, let’s see where the decimal point lands for their No. 1 goalie. I’m guessing somewhere between $4-5 million on a five-year deal. We’ll see.

What?   This is soft and more soft.   

When did he get skipped over?   The Sabres refused to bring in a real NHL for several seasons waiting for someone to take the job.  

[Pimlach]

On 3/10/2024 at 9:33 AM, French Collection said:

Probably no discount on UPL but Ullmark was a UFA.

UPL doesn’t’t get the standard 7x7M but a 3 or 4 year deal seems reasonable. If Joker is moved he may get a little miffed though.

WTF?   Why should he care about Joker getting moved?  

On 3/10/2024 at 12:48 PM, Ducky said:

10m over 3 years.

Levi in Rochester next year, backing up UPL the year after and hopefully taking the reins the year after that.

 

Samsonov, DeSmith and Brossoit would be other options.

Why hopefully.  Keep the better of the two.  

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

WTF?   Why should he care about Joker getting moved?  

I am guessing that he may get upset that his Finnish buddy is moved.

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

What?   This is soft and more soft.   

When did he get skipped over?   The Sabres refused to bring in a real NHL for several seasons waiting for someone to take the job.  

Marek has gone into detail about this. The prevailing thought in some circles around the league is that UPL has had to do everything he can to prove that he belongs in the NHL, while Levi has to prove that he doesn’t belong. 
 

There was disagreement earlier in season about where Levi belonged this season. Granato wanted to ride him in the NHL while others in the FO felt Rochester was the best path forward.  Levi was given the starting job before TC began this year. 
 

Also last season once Levi was signed, UPL wasn’t even dressed as the backup for the last games of the season. 

[French Collection]

I think UPL has earned the starter’s job.

Levi should not be guaranteed the backup job but KA probably doesn’t get a “blocker”.

If UPL struggles then Levi could challenge for more starts. There is nothing wrong with a 1A 1B scenario, I think competition pushes both to be better.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

I think UPL has earned the starter’s job.

Levi should not be guaranteed the backup job but KA probably doesn’t get a “blocker”.

If UPL struggles then Levi could challenge for more starts. There is nothing wrong with a 1A 1B scenario, I think competition pushes both to be better.

Ideally, this is Ullmark (the mid-20s talent who paid his dues) and Swayman (the hotshot college kid who arrived quickly and stuck)

I get UPL feeling the way @Brawndo described, but the flip side of that was that UPL didn't actually earn the net either until this December and January.

And once he earned it, he kept it.

Most athletes understand that's the way it's supposed to work.