UPL's next contract

[mjd1001]

He's a free agent at the end of the year (restricted).

We have a Mitts next contract thread, but at least for the last few weeks UPL has probably been more important to this team than Mitts.

Does anyone want to lock him up long term? Short term deal (if he will take it) to 'bridge' until Levi is ready to take over?  What does UPL want or Demand?

Since the Calendar turned to 2024, he is 4w-2L, a .955 save percentage, 2 shutouts, and about a 1.18 gaa (small sample size but it is a few weeks)

Edited January 21 by mjd1001

[Buffalonill]

2 or 3 Years I still believe devon Levi will be the franchise QB and UPL the Biron

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

2 or 3 Years I still believe devon Levi will be the franchise QB and UPL the Biron

Probably. If he plays the rest of the season like he has most of this year, KA will probably go 3 years, but the more years he “buys” the bigger the cap hit.  Would UPL go 3 years at 2.5?  His numbers are still middling in the NHL.

Edited January 21 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

42 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

He's a free agent at the end of the year (restricted).

We have a Mitts next contract thread, but at least for the last few weeks UPL has probably been more important to this team than Mitts.

Does anyone want to lock him up long term? Short term deal (if he will take it) to 'bridge' until Levi is ready to take over?  What does UPL want or Demand?

Since the Calendar turned to 2024, he is 4w-2L, a .955 save percentage, 2 shutouts, and about a 1.18 gaa (small sample size but it is a few weeks)

It's an excellent question and one they have to get right.

UPL and Levi are the goalies for at least the next 2 years but it's doubtful they'll BOTH be here more than 1 or 2 years after that because they likely won't be able to afford both at that point and both will be wanting to be a #1.  Whether 1 or both deserve to be a #1 at that point is still to be determined.

Would expect they'll try to get him to sign a 3 year deal buying 1 of his UFA years.  But honestly have no idea how receptive he'd be to a 3 year deal.

[GoPuckYourself]

I would not sign him long term ..No. I haven't seen anything that would make me think he could become a top flight goalie in the NHL other than getting shutouts on the Blackhawks and Sharks (2 bottom feeder teams). 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

He's a free agent at the end of the year (restricted).

We have a Mitts next contract thread, but at least for the last few weeks UPL has probably been more important to this team than Mitts.

Does anyone want to lock him up long term? Short term deal (if he will take it) to 'bridge' until Levi is ready to take over?  What does UPL want or Demand?

Since the Calendar turned to 2024, he is 4w-2L, a .955 save percentage, 2 shutouts, and about a 1.18 gaa (small sample size but it is a few weeks)

Bridge contract.  Do not overpay and lock him up.  

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Probably. If he plays the rest of the season like he has most of this year, KA will probably go 3 years, but the more years he “buys” the bigger the cap hit.  Would UPL go 3 years at 2.5?  His numbers are still middling in the NHL.

2.5 would be extremely generous imo. 

With that money you're in the Skinner, Ingram, Vladar comparables and while none of them are consistently good, neither is UPL. 

If you are offering him any more than around 2, you're putting an awful lot of faith in a guy with (as you say) "middling" numbers. 

I'd rather we made a deal for a real proven goalie while we bridged him and let time prove him worthy of more or yesterday's news. 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

2.5 would be extremely generous imo. 

With that money you're in the Skinner, Ingram, Vladar comparables and while none of them are consistently good, neither is UPL. 

If you are offering him any more than around 2, you're putting an awful lot of faith in a guy with (as you say) "middling" numbers. 

I'd rather we made a deal for a real proven goalie while we bridged him and let time prove him worthy of more or yesterday's news. 

By bridge are you referring to a 1 year deal?  Asking, because a 2 year deal walks him to UFA status.

Would either give him 1 year or 3.  Wouldn't want to give him 2 years.

[Mr. Allen]

If I’m UPL I’m following Ulmarks lead and trying to get away from this organization.  

[SabreFinn]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Probably. If he plays the rest of the season like he has most of this year, KA will probably go 3 years, but the more years he “buys” the bigger the cap hit.  Would UPL go 3 years at 2.5?  His numbers are still middling in the NHL.

Agree. I think he will be signed for three years at 2-2.5. He is still unexperienced.

[SABRES 0311]

Interesting topic of discussion. Maybe we can copy and paste it to his future new team’s fan board. 😂 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

By bridge are you referring to a 1 year deal?  Asking, because a 2 year deal walks him to UFA status.

Would either give him 1 year or 3.  Wouldn't want to give him 2 years.

I suppose so then. I thought it could be 2 but if it can only be 1 so be it. I'd give him 3 years or maybe even 4 if it was cheap. Under 2. 

[Ducky]

2 x 1.75m.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

I would wait until we see what the rest of this dismal year looks like. If he plays like this the rest of the year then a nice bridge contract is in order. If he goes back to Sabre suckatude then a lot lower. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I suppose so then. I thought it could be 2 but if it can only be 1 so be it. I'd give him 3 years or maybe even 4 if it was cheap. Under 2. 

It could be 2 years, but that takes him right to UFA status at the end of it.  @Taro T,s plan of 3 years would buy 1 UFA year.  A 1 year deal has him UFA at the end of it.

======

6K has played pretty well most of the season.  The team in front of him hasn't always been his friend.  Mostly not his friend.

I agree with @Hank that he has finally come into his own and has developed into a fairly steady goaler.

The gamble is .. if they want him around for a while at a reasonable price tag then offer him a 3 year deal at $1.85M per.  It buys 1 year of UFA status and gives Levi a chance to blossom (or possibly not blossom - I think he will).

If by the end of the season there is enough evidence that the Sabres think that 6K will be a reliable #2 long-term and Levi being #1 then I would sign him for 5 years and $12.5M.

If there is still some questions at the end of the season - sign him for 1 year at $1.75M.  Gives another year to see what happens with him and Levi.  Still RFA at the end of it and then can sign him for 3(+) years at the end of next season.

[Believer]

3 or 4 yrs… $2M… We’ve invested in UPL… Big legit improvement in play this season because of progressive development and off season work… If he continues to perform and Levi is ready in a couple years, UPL will have trade value… If Levi is a bust, UPL can be extended… Nice to have choices.

[mjd1001]

[mjd1001]

UPL was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017....so..I thought I'd look up what other goalies were drafted in the year or two before him (that might be on their 2nd contract now), how successful they have been and what they got paid at a similar point in their career:

-Connor Ingram (3rd rounder, 2016).  Waiver pickup. 3 yr, $5.85m contract. (1.95 per year) 7 career wins upon signing

-Philp Gustavsson (2nd rounder, 2016). 3 yr, $11.25m contract. (3.75 per year) 32 wins upon signing

-Carter Hart (2nd round, 2016). 3 yr, $11.9m contract. (3.97 per year)  49 career wins upon signing

-MacKenzie Blackwood (2nd round, 2015). 3 yr, $8.4m contact (2.8 per year) 24 career wins upon signing

-Ilya Samsonov (late 1st round, 2015). 1yr, $3.5m contact. (3.5 per year) 79 career wins upon signing

All had some NHL experience before signing those deals. Various degrees of success...overall stats in many cases slightly better than UPL, but UPL may be playing better now (if he keeps it up) than some of them did.  Add inflation/the cap rising since those deals were signed, I think the price for UPL is going to be in the $2.5-$3m per year (possibly more depending on length) if you want him for 2-3 years.  Is he worth it? maybe, but if he keeps playing solid for the rest of the year, that just IS the going price for goalies of his age/draft status/experience.

No way you are getting him for $2m per year...$1.75m per year...as some are suggesting. That is just not the going rate.

UPL has 31 career wins now, likely to be in the 40's by the end of this year when you have to think of re-signing him.

Edited January 22 by mjd1001

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

 

On 1/20/2024 at 8:03 AM, dudacek said:

38 goalies have played 20 games this year. He ranks 14th among them in GAA and 14th in SV%

To my eyes, he whiffed in the 5-1 loss Dec. 13 to Colorado, the Nov. 11 6-4 loss in St. Louis and the Nov. 3 5-1 loss to Philly.

All 3 of those games the team got off to terrible starts and he didn't have their backs.

His other 17 starts he's been good enough to give his team a chance to win.

To me, his play this year qualifies as the "good enough" goaltending most of us did not think he was capable of and were hoping Adams would step outside the organization this summer to acquire.

Really interested to see if those trends continue this morning.

This is the kind of moment in the season where UPL historically would serve up a dud.

I wouldn't call it a defining moment, more of a signpost, but significant nonetheless in his bid to shed that 'inconsistent' label.

Interesting to see that the fancy stats are matching my eye test in terms of giving us a chance.

But the fancy stats don't consider that moderately consistent, but rather extremely consistent. 🤔

 

[Crusader1969]

Who would have guessed that the team is failing UPL not UPL failing the team? 

[Hank]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

UPL was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017....so..I thought I'd look up what other goalies were drafted in the year or two before him (that might be on their 2nd contract now), how successful they have been and what they got paid at a similar point in their career:

-Connor Ingram (3rd rounder, 2016).  Waiver pickup. 3 yr, $5.85m contract. (1.95 per year) 7 career wins upon signing

-Philp Gustavsson (2nd rounder, 2016). 3 yr, $11.25m contract. (3.75 per year) 32 wins upon signing

-Carter Hart (2nd round, 2016). 3 yr, $11.9m contract. (3.97 per year)  49 career wins upon signing

-MacKenzie Blackwood (2nd round, 2015). 3 yr, $8.4m contact (2.8 per year) 24 career wins upon signing

-Ilya Samsonov (late 1st round, 2015). 1yr, $3.5m contact. (3.5 per year) 79 career wins upon signing

All had some NHL experience before signing those deals. Various degrees of success...overall stats in many cases slightly better than UPL, but UPL may be playing better now (if he keeps it up) than some of them did.  Add inflation/the cap rising since those deals were signed, I think the price for UPL is going to be in the $2.5-$3m per year (possibly more depending on length) if you want him for 2-3 years.  Is he worth it? maybe, but if he keeps playing solid for the rest of the year, that just IS the going price for goalies of his age/draft status/experience.

No way you are getting him for $2m per year...$1.75m per year...as some are suggesting. That is just not the going rate.

UPL has 31 career wins now, likely to be in the 40's by the end of this year when you have to think of re-signing him.

I think his closest comp is Gustavsson. Before the season started I predicted 6K would have a similar breakout year that Gustavsson did when he went to Minny. I don't think 6K gets that much money though, I think if he doesn't go to arbitration KA will give him three years between 2.85-3.15M. 

[mjd1001]

25 minutes ago, Hank said:

I think his closest comp is Gustavsson. Before the season started I predicted 6K would have a similar breakout year that Gustavsson did when he went to Minny. I don't think 6K gets that much money though, I think if he doesn't go to arbitration KA will give him three years between 2.85-3.15M. 

"6k" two times in your response? Now you are just intentionally trying to work it in.  I do agree that he likely will get at least $2.8-$3m per year, unless his play really really suffers for the rest of the season.

Edited January 23 by mjd1001

[sweetlou]

3 years for AAV of $2.75 million

[Hank]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

"6k" two times in your response? Now you are just intentionally trying to work it in.  I do agree that he likely will get at least $2.8-$3m per year, unless his play really really suffers for the rest of the season.

I like 6K. Can't really explain why, just sounds better in my head I guess. You prefer UPL. I'm okay with that. Regardless of our personal preferences, we both know who the other is referring to. To each his own and all that. 

[bunomatic]

15 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

"6k" two times in your response? Now you are just intentionally trying to work it in.  I do agree that he likely will get at least $2.8-$3m per year, unless his play really really suffers for the rest of the season.

I don’t mind 6k or Upl for that matter but since the debate is quickly turning into a distraction I will arbitrarily break the tie and the board shall now call him forevermore yupie Uplstiltskin.

Edited January 23 by bunomatic