Team Defense

Quint · January 21

Sabres are on pace to give up 260 goals this year. Last year, they gave up 300 goals. So GAA would decrease from 3.65 last year to 3.17 this year. They are on pace to score 238 goals after scoring 296 last year. So GF would decrease from 3.60 a game last year to 2.91 this year. Since four goals wins most games, we're a ways off. It seems the Sabres have focused on teaching defense this year, so it's another developmental year for the NHL's youngest roster.

Edited January 29 by Quint

Sabres Fan in NS · January 21

I tend to agree and made the same basic point in the Tampa GDT.

@Taro T, who is very knowledgeable and watches the team play very closely brought up some very good points in his reply to my post.

It's pretty obvious that the focus has shifted to the defencive side of the game.

Also, I really believe that some of the players are playing through some injuries.

bob_sauve28 · January 21

19 minutes ago, Quint said:

By comparing numbers from last year, it looks to me that there's more parity in the middle of the pack and there are less very bad teams this year. It looks like defenses around the league have more parity and are overall stingier this year than last.

Sabres are on pace to give up 260 goals over an 82 game season this year. Last year, they gave up 300 goals. If things keep up like this, GAA will decrease from 3.65 last year to 3.17 this year.

On the other hand, they are only on pace to score 238 goals. Last year they scored 296. If things keep up like this, GF will decrease from 3.60 a game last year to 2.91 this year.

(In my experience, you need four goals to win most games.)

If I had to guess, it appears to me the Sabres have focused on defense to the detriment of offense this year.
With the Sabres having the youngest roster in the NHL and many players still in the developmental stage, I think things will get better both ways next year, barring significant injuries.

But this year, I chalk it up being a developmental year where the players learn team defense at the expense of offense. I don't expect playoffs this year or maybe even next year...RJ would be disappointed.

Lately the team defense has been much better, along with the goaltending. I'll keep saying it, if the PP would do better--as it should-- this team right now would be in the thick of the playoff race.

Archie Lee · January 21

I don't think it was wrong to focus more on defence than we had in the last two years. We didn't outscore our bad defensive play last year (though we came close). It is proper to have a goal of defending better than we did last year. I think there are several factors in why it hasn't worked:

- As Bob Sauve28 has said, the PP has not held up it's end. If the PP was in the top-half of the league it would make a huge difference. As is, it is doubly detrimental in that not only is it not producing goals but it is directly leading to discouraged play on our part and inspired play by the opposition. If we were scoring more on the PP we would be in closer games, getting to overtime, not giving up empty net goals, etc. It all adds up.

- We are too young. I'll write it again, the down the middle core of our team (Thompson, Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Dahlin, Power, Sammy, Joker, UPL and Levi) had an average age of 22 to start the season. Collectively, that group is too young and inexperienced to have consistent success. Add in other young players like Peterka, Quinn, R. Johnson and Benson (the last thing this year's team needed was an 18 year old who can hold his own while on his way to an 8 goal / 28 point season) and I don't think we have the experience and discretion needed to understand how playing consistently good D structure does not require sacrificing offence or creativity. They can go together. We have too many young players who are learning this lesson at the same time without the necessary veterans surrounding them to help.

- Granato and his assistants are perhaps just not good enough. This doesn't mean they are individually bad coaches. But if it was easy to coach an NHL team to the point where you are squeezing as much out of your line-up as you can then there would be more coaches who do it. There is a reason for why the same coaches get recycled and end up having new successes with new teams; it's because they are good at what they do. There is no doubt in my mind that we would be a better team today if in the offseason we had somehow flipped Granato and Power for Bruce Cassidy and Brayden McNabb (not suggesting for a second we make such a swap). Coaching matters.

The good news is that we still have all of the assets that we had at the start of last off-season and that could have been used to make necessary roster adjustments. Also, there are and will be experienced coaches with winning track records available. The bad news is that we do not seem to be motivated to make the needed changes.

Edited January 21 by Archie Lee

breese866 · January 21

Regarding the power play, last year, towards the last third of the season, opposing teams caught on that you need to stop leaving Thompson open on the half wall for his wicked one timer. Once other teams adjusted, by having someone pop out immediately once Dahlin gets the puck at the point, Thompson stopped scoring on the power play. Carry over to this year, I remember one time when Thompson scored from the half wall on the power play from releasing his wicked one time on a feed from Dahlin. The Sabres need to adjust, maybe by putting him on the other half wall. They haven't. That is coaching. Maybe the power play coach ought to be looked at. I am not sure what the answer is, Ovechkin has made a career of doing it, but to me that needs to be looked at.

DarthEbriate · January 21

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Lately the team defense has been much better, along with the goaltending. I'll keep saying it, if the PP would do better--as it should-- this team right now would be in the thick of the playoff race.

If they were a league mean PP% (21%), they'd currently have 27 PP goals scored instead of 19. 8 goals isn't a ton, but it's probably worth 4 more points in the standings thus far.

The other issue is volume. This team is not drawing penalties. They're near the bottom of the league in PP opportunities, although fairly close to median. There are just some sickening outliers who "always get the call" -- Colorado, Detroit, Vegas, and Nashville??? are all over 160 PP opportunities already. That's where a good head coach comes into play, working the refs for advantage.

It also doesn't help that Benson has had a target on his back for anything all season. He's taken at least 4 minors that don't even make sense except some ref saying "he's 18, of course it's a penalty." (I doubt Bedard gets a slashing call in the Tampa game.)

Weave · January 21

20 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The other issue is volume. This team is not drawing penalties. They're near the bottom of the league in PP opportunities, although fairly close to median. There are just some sickening outliers who "always get the call" -- Colorado, Detroit, Vegas, and Nashville??? are all over 160 PP opportunities already. That's where a good head coach comes into play, working the refs for advantage.

I disagree with this premise. I seriously doubt coach’s lack of working the refs is a substantive reason for our dearth of powerplays. My guess is that the Colorados and Vegas’s of the league get the powerplays becuase they are harder on the puck, and that aggression leads to more penalties taken by their opponents for holding, tripping, interference, etc.

thewookie1 · January 21

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

I disagree with this premise. I seriously doubt coach’s lack of working the refs is a substantive reason for our dearth of powerplays. My guess is that the Colorados and Vegas’s of the league get the powerplays becuase they are harder on the puck, and that aggression leads to more penalties taken by their opponents for holding, tripping, interference, etc.

Yes and no; there is a definite bias to the top teams or those deemed as such.

Scottysabres · January 21

Soooooo.....

Next year then?

Taro T · January 21

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I disagree with this premise. I seriously doubt coach’s lack of working the refs is a substantive reason for our dearth of powerplays. My guess is that the Colorados and Vegas’s of the league get the powerplays becuase they are harder on the puck, and that aggression leads to more penalties taken by their opponents for holding, tripping, interference, etc.

Yep. When challenged, the Sabres often curl back to regroup rather than trying to win the 1v1 battle. How many times have the Sabres taken a penalty because a F was about to drive past them for a solid scoring chance? Either intentionally or accidentally, the Sabres take at least 1 if not 2 penalties like that each game. They need to start forcing the opponent to do that also. (Well, at least once they get the PP working. Right now, NOT getting PPs might be the more effective strategy.)

SABRES 0311 · January 21

Why is there a thread for something that doesn’t exist? 😂

PerreaultForever · January 21

5 hours ago, Quint said:

By comparing numbers from last year, it looks to me that there's more parity in the middle of the pack and there are less very bad teams this year. It looks like defenses around the league have more parity and are overall stingier this year than last.

Sabres are on pace to give up 260 goals over an 82 game season this year. Last year, they gave up 300 goals. If things keep up like this, GAA will decrease from 3.65 last year to 3.17 this year.

On the other hand, they are only on pace to score 238 goals. Last year they scored 296. If things keep up like this, GF will decrease from 3.60 a game last year to 2.91 this year.

(In my experience, you need four goals to win most games.)

If I had to guess, it appears to me the Sabres have focused on defense to the detriment of offense this year.
With the Sabres having the youngest roster in the NHL and many players still in the developmental stage, I think things will get better both ways next year, barring significant injuries.

But this year, I chalk it up being a developmental year where the players learn team defense at the expense of offense. I don't expect playoffs this year or maybe even next year...RJ would be disappointed.

"developmental year" F##k me it's always a "developmental year".

The defense league wide this year I talked about early in the season. It's the cup winner effect. Whatever the cup winner did other teams try to copy or emulate. Happens every year. So this year there's more Cassidy style focus league wide. It's contagious.

Are the Sabres better at defense? Not really. We are still a fair weather hockey team and soft like butter.

This constant "we are young" argument is bs because it's a self fulfilling prophecy. If you don't bring in veterans who are needed and you keep trading away people for prospects and picks you are forever young and forever "developing".

Yes, it's a "development" year again. We are developing players for other rosters when they get traded away eventually.

You want real development? Take a close look at what Philly has done with a LOT LESS talent.

mjd1001 · January 21

Goaltending is a bit better this year. Defensemen, while not 'good' are slightly better than last year. Forwards are just as bad as they ever have been in their own zone,I still have yet to see improvment there.

As far as scoring, most of the drop in scoring this year is due to missed games and just dropoff in performance from Tage and Cozens this year compared to last year.

Based on their goals per game, this year if they would be at last years level, you would have 45 goals between them. This year you have 22. That is a 23 goal shortfall. You are currently 32 goals behind last years pace. The dropoff in goals per game nets you 72% of the teams total shortfall just between those 2 guys.

Edited January 21 by mjd1001

GASabresIUFAN · January 21

The defense and goaltending better at the expense of offense. Sounds like a Ralph Krueger team.

Quint · January 22

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

"developmental year" F##k me it's always a "developmental year".

The defense league wide this year I talked about early in the season. It's the cup winner effect. Whatever the cup winner did other teams try to copy or emulate. Happens every year. So this year there's more Cassidy style focus league wide. It's contagious.

Are the Sabres better at defense? Not really. We are still a fair weather hockey team and soft like butter.

This constant "we are young" argument is bs because it's a self fulfilling prophecy. If you don't bring in veterans who are needed and you keep trading away people for prospects and picks you are forever young and forever "developing".

Yes, it's a "development" year again. We are developing players for other rosters when they get traded away eventually.

You want real development? Take a close look at what Philly has done with a LOT LESS talent.

There's some truth in there but gee, you're bitter. Twelve (going on thirteen) years of this clown show getting to you? 🤡

Archie Lee · January 22

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The defense and goaltending better at the expense of offense. Sounds like a Ralph Krueger team.

Saw a Harrington tweet from yesterday where he blamed the analytics department for pressing the coaches to focus on D, resulting in a style change that “broke the team”.

Here are a couple of analytics:

1.). The Sabres allowed 300 goals last season.

2.). The last time a team made the NHL playoffs allowing 300 goals was 1993.

We were 100% not making the playoffs without improved D. Either our coaches are unable to teach a defensive system that does not sacrifice offence or our players are not yet mature enough to grasp that playing a good D structure does not mean you can’t also be good offensively. I sense it is a bit of both.

PerreaultForever · January 22

7 hours ago, Quint said:

There's some truth in there but gee, you're bitter. Twelve (going on thirteen) years of this clown show getting to you? 🤡

Bitter at the Sabres? Ya, definitely. Why aren't you? Why isn't everyone who has ever been a fan? It's a clown show.

bob_sauve28 · January 22

9 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Saw a Harrington tweet from yesterday where he blamed the analytics department for pressing the coaches to focus on D, resulting in a style change that “broke the team”.

Here are a couple of analytics:

1.). The Sabres allowed 300 goals last season.

2.). The last time a team made the NHL playoffs allowing 300 goals was 1993.

We were 100% not making the playoffs without improved D. Either our coaches are unable to teach a defensive system that does not sacrifice offence or our players are not yet mature enough to grasp that playing a good D structure does not mean you can’t also be good offensively. I sense it is a bit of both.

This team needed to be way tougher to play against. They have achieved that, but the goals are not backing it up yet

Weave · January 22

Just now, bob_sauve28 said:

This team needed to be way tougher to play against. They have achieved that, but the goals are not backing it up yet

I disagree. I think they have tightened up, but hard to play against? Nah.

bob_sauve28 · January 22

55 minutes ago, Weave said:

I disagree. I think they have tightened up, but hard to play against? Nah.

They have turned up the hitting, are not giving up ridicilous amounts of odd man rushes or shots.

Still wish they would draw more penalties

Sabres Fan in NS · January 22

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The defense and goaltending better at the expense of offense. Sounds like a Ralph Krueger team.

No it doesn't.

mjd1001 · January 23

On 1/22/2024 at 8:27 AM, bob_sauve28 said:

This team needed to be way tougher to play against. They have achieved that, but the goals are not backing it up yet

Being 'physical' and being 'hard to play against' might or might not be the same thing.

When I think of hard to play against, I think of what an opponent would think. What is the type of team they want no part of, the type of team that shows up in your arena and can't wait to get the game over with. A team where they have to 'worry' about being a fight, that isn't what I am thinking of.

To me, the hard to play against team is one that give 100% effort ALL time time. Up by 3, down by 3, doesn't matter. No matter the score, a team where as an opposing team I can't take a single shift off or I'm going to be embarrassed. I can't turn my back for a second...I can't coast for a second. A team that can be physical in hitting just as bad as they can be a pest, not letting me ease up chasing a puck at all. I see one player on this team that is like that all the time, and that is Zemgus.

Its not the opponent always being afraid of being hit, it can be as simple as everytime the whistle goes after a puck over the glass or icing, they turn around and an opposing play is 3 feet away from them or less.

I don't need them to pick up the hitting, I NEED them to just be relentless, no matter the score. I don't want an opposing team to think that if that team gets up by 3 goals that its going to be a fun/easy night.

Edited January 23 by mjd1001

dudacek · January 23

Small sample size, and against some weak teams, but the Sabres are allowing 1.75 goals per game in the 8 games since the calendar turned.

That's good for 3rd in the league.

Taking it back to Dec. 1 — 23 games — they're at 2.96 good for 13th. And that number is swollen by the 9-goal Columbus debacle.

I don't see people recognizing it in the game day threads, but my eye test supported it in the Tampa and Vancouver games.

They're clearly better at defence than they were a year ago.

They just haven't improved enough to make up for the fall-off in offence.

Edited January 23 by dudacek

Ctaeth · January 23

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Small sample size, and against some weak teams, but the Sabres are allowing 1.75 goals per game in the 8 games since the calendar turned.

That's good for 3rd in the league.

Taking it back to Dec. 1 — 23 games — they're at 2.96 good for 13th. And that number is swollen by the 9-goal Columbus debacle.

I don't see people recognizing it in the game day threads, but my eye test supported it in the Tampa and Vancouver games.

They're clearly better at defence than they were a year ago.

They can play defense and they can score goals. But doing both at the same time is a whole other issue

Weave · January 23

16 minutes ago, Ctaeth said:

They can play defense and they can score goals. But doing both at the same time is a whole other issue

You ever try to walk and chew gum at the same time? Yeah, I didn’t think so either.

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