Let's talk about how bad Mattias Samuelsson has been

[LGR4GM]

I didn't like the contract to be honest. I thought it was about 500k too much and about 3 years too long. At the time though, I like others, gave Adams the benefit of the doubt. The team looked like it was improving and Samuelsson looked like a solid top 4 stay at home defender. Still, he hadn't played a lot of games and if memory serves, hadn't scored an NHL goal when he signed or something like that. 

Let's look at his numbers. 

His rel corsi% has never been positive. That's right, if you look at his 3 half/full (he gets injured a ton) seasons, he has never once finished with a positive  rel corsi% and it isn't particularly close. This measure on ice corsi for - off ice corsi for at even strength. Samuelson has this: -8.6%, -11.5%, and -9.7% and just so you have some perspective, Dahlin's last 3 years (this year included) are: 9.1, 9.4, 12.9% so those of you who feel as though Dahlin is actually trying would be correct. The team is better when he is on the ice than when he is off and for Muel it is inverted. In fact the only Sabres defenders with worse numbers are!?!? You guessed it, Big Johnson with -15.8 and Clifton with -9.4... sorry connor I guess you are 3rd worst. 

But wait, that's just shot attempts at even strength and we all know that shot attempts don't always mean good shots right? So let's look next at xgf% which is XGF/XGFA... Here we get some better news! So that's nice right? Now he has never had a positive xgf% and this year he ranks... 4th behind Jokiharju, Rasmus Dahlin, and Ryan Johnson. Erik Johnson btw is a SHOCKING -20.9 to this point in the season. No other player is within 10 of that for their career. Anyways back to Muel who is at -1.9. He is terrible at preventing shot attempts but seems to be okay at preventing xgf attempts. Shots on net each equal a tiny percentage and add up to goals, he seems to stop the most dangerous ones which is good! There is hope. 

The bottom line is this, he isn't one of our top 4 defenders. He certainly is not good enough to play with Dahlin. He keeps getting rolled out there due to a perception based on no actual stats, eye test, or magic eye ball analysis. I would make this thread about Erik Johnson who is literally a black hole but he's as good as gone where as we have Samuelsson for another 6 years after this one. 

Now if you want to say he is a defensive defender so that explains the shot issues... no. If he was so good at defense, he should be shutting down plays and turning the puck up ice. Instead, he is not shutting down plays and his passing is atrocious. 

You want a young guy who should sit, I give you Mattias Samuelsson. Ryan Johnson is flat out better. If anyone has the player cards for Johnson and Muel I would love to see them. I let my subscription lapse cuz money so don't have access currently. Either way the coaches are not making decisions to win, they are making decisions because veteran status, favoritism, perception, and emotions. It's time for this staff to grow up or get out because the players aren't the only ones acting young and childish.

 

[mjd1001]

He seems to have regressed from last year, I will agree with that.

Is it that he is dealing with a nagging injury? If so, he might be a guy who is ALWAYS dealing with a nagging injury so that doesn't help.  Does he/did he have the Dylan Cozens disease where we all thought he was better than he is because of one 'early career year'? Possibly.

I still think this D-unit mostly suffers from how bad the forwards are in their own end. I'm not an expert on the fancy stats, but I think even they might be making the D look a little worse than they are many times, as the forwards are really non-existent in their own end and the D often have to make decisions on who to cover/who to leave open on the other team because the forwards aren't helping, and that might make the 'fancy stats' on them look even worse.

[That Aud Smell]

I tuned in long enough last night to see that highlight reel goal that Columbus scored for its 3rd (?) goal. There was Samuelsson. Standing there with his proverbial d1ck in his hand.

He looked pretty good for a stretch last season. The fact that Adams bought in on him for the length of term that he did - based on the sample size that they had - is another indicator of KA being in over his head.

[SwampD]

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I tuned in long enough last night to see that highlight reel goal that Columbus scored for its 3rd (?) goal. There was Samuelsson. Standing there with his proverbial d1ck in his hand.

He looked pretty good for a stretch last season. The fact that Adams bought in on him for the length of term that he did - based on the sample size that they had - is another indicator of KA being in over his head.

Hope is not a strategy. It seems like KA manages by hope.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Do we have to?

[phil_soisson]

57 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I didn't like the contract to be honest. I thought it was about 500k too much and about 3 years too long. At the time though, I like others, gave Adams the benefit of the doubt. The team looked like it was improving and Samuelsson looked like a solid top 4 stay at home defender. Still, he hadn't played a lot of games and if memory serves, hadn't scored an NHL goal when he signed or something like that. 

Let's look at his numbers. 

His rel corsi% has never been positive. That's right, if you look at his 3 half/full (he gets injured a ton) seasons, he has never once finished with a positive  rel corsi% and it isn't particularly close. This measure on ice corsi for - off ice corsi for at even strength. Samuelson has this: -8.6%, -11.5%, and -9.7% and just so you have some perspective, Dahlin's last 3 years (this year included) are: 9.1, 9.4, 12.9% so those of you who feel as though Dahlin is actually trying would be correct. The team is better when he is on the ice than when he is off and for Muel it is inverted. In fact the only Sabres defenders with worse numbers are!?!? You guessed it, Big Johnson with -15.8 and Clifton with -9.4... sorry connor I guess you are 3rd worst. 

But wait, that's just shot attempts at even strength and we all know that shot attempts don't always mean good shots right? So let's look next at xgf% which is XGF/XGFA... Here we get some better news! So that's nice right? Now he has never had a positive xgf% and this year he ranks... 4th behind Jokiharju, Rasmus Dahlin, and Ryan Johnson. Erik Johnson btw is a SHOCKING -20.9 to this point in the season. No other player is within 10 of that for their career. Anyways back to Muel who is at -1.9. He is terrible at preventing shot attempts but seems to be okay at preventing xgf attempts. Shots on net each equal a tiny percentage and add up to goals, he seems to stop the most dangerous ones which is good! There is hope. 

The bottom line is this, he isn't one of our top 4 defenders. He certainly is not good enough to play with Dahlin. He keeps getting rolled out there due to a perception based on no actual stats, eye test, or magic eye ball analysis. I would make this thread about Erik Johnson who is literally a black hole but he's as good as gone where as we have Samuelsson for another 6 years after this one. 

Now if you want to say he is a defensive defender so that explains the shot issues... no. If he was so good at defense, he should be shutting down plays and turning the puck up ice. Instead, he is not shutting down plays and his passing is atrocious. 

You want a young guy who should sit, I give you Mattias Samuelsson. Ryan Johnson is flat out better. If anyone has the player cards for Johnson and Muel I would love to see them. I let my subscription lapse cuz money so don't have access currently. Either way the coaches are not making decisions to win, they are making decisions because veteran status, favoritism, perception, and emotions. It's time for this staff to grow up or get out because the players aren't the only ones acting young and childish.

 

Listening to Samuelsson, I've always thought his heart is in Philly, to the point that maybe subconsciously, he doesn't really want to be in Buffalo?

[Believer]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I didn't like the contract to be honest. I thought it was about 500k too much and about 3 years too long. At the time though, I like others, gave Adams the benefit of the doubt. The team looked like it was improving and Samuelsson looked like a solid top 4 stay at home defender. Still, he hadn't played a lot of games and if memory serves, hadn't scored an NHL goal when he signed or something like that. 

Let's look at his numbers. 

His rel corsi% has never been positive. That's right, if you look at his 3 half/full (he gets injured a ton) seasons, he has never once finished with a positive  rel corsi% and it isn't particularly close. This measure on ice corsi for - off ice corsi for at even strength. Samuelson has this: -8.6%, -11.5%, and -9.7% and just so you have some perspective, Dahlin's last 3 years (this year included) are: 9.1, 9.4, 12.9% so those of you who feel as though Dahlin is actually trying would be correct. The team is better when he is on the ice than when he is off and for Muel it is inverted. In fact the only Sabres defenders with worse numbers are!?!? You guessed it, Big Johnson with -15.8 and Clifton with -9.4... sorry connor I guess you are 3rd worst. 

But wait, that's just shot attempts at even strength and we all know that shot attempts don't always mean good shots right? So let's look next at xgf% which is XGF/XGFA... Here we get some better news! So that's nice right? Now he has never had a positive xgf% and this year he ranks... 4th behind Jokiharju, Rasmus Dahlin, and Ryan Johnson. Erik Johnson btw is a SHOCKING -20.9 to this point in the season. No other player is within 10 of that for their career. Anyways back to Muel who is at -1.9. He is terrible at preventing shot attempts but seems to be okay at preventing xgf attempts. Shots on net each equal a tiny percentage and add up to goals, he seems to stop the most dangerous ones which is good! There is hope. 

The bottom line is this, he isn't one of our top 4 defenders. He certainly is not good enough to play with Dahlin. He keeps getting rolled out there due to a perception based on no actual stats, eye test, or magic eye ball analysis. I would make this thread about Erik Johnson who is literally a black hole but he's as good as gone where as we have Samuelsson for another 6 years after this one. 

Now if you want to say he is a defensive defender so that explains the shot issues... no. If he was so good at defense, he should be shutting down plays and turning the puck up ice. Instead, he is not shutting down plays and his passing is atrocious. 

You want a young guy who should sit, I give you Mattias Samuelsson. Ryan Johnson is flat out better. If anyone has the player cards for Johnson and Muel I would love to see them. I let my subscription lapse cuz money so don't have access currently. Either way the coaches are not making decisions to win, they are making decisions because veteran status, favoritism, perception, and emotions. It's time for this staff to grow up or get out because the players aren't the only ones acting young and childish.

 

100%… Samuelson is often unavailable because of injury… He is overrated and overpaid… Trade him while he still has good value… Package him with a prospect if you have to… Get a top 4 vet D with grit.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Couldn’t we start a thread like this for nearly every Sabre coach, player, and administrator?  

We are watching the collapse of an entire organization; again.  

[Second Line Center]

Yea if I’m disappointed in Clifton I’m very frustrated with Samuelson.  
 

I don’t get it.  He looked like our most important player for almost a full season. He has to be playing thru something.  
 

That btw is the problem with him the injuries.  

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I didn't like the contract to be honest. I thought it was about 500k too much and about 3 years too long. At the time though, I like others, gave Adams the benefit of the doubt. The team looked like it was improving and Samuelsson looked like a solid top 4 stay at home defender. Still, he hadn't played a lot of games and if memory serves, hadn't scored an NHL goal when he signed or something like that. 

Let's look at his numbers. 

His rel corsi% has never been positive. That's right, if you look at his 3 half/full (he gets injured a ton) seasons, he has never once finished with a positive  rel corsi% and it isn't particularly close. This measure on ice corsi for - off ice corsi for at even strength. Samuelson has this: -8.6%, -11.5%, and -9.7% and just so you have some perspective, Dahlin's last 3 years (this year included) are: 9.1, 9.4, 12.9% so those of you who feel as though Dahlin is actually trying would be correct. The team is better when he is on the ice than when he is off and for Muel it is inverted. In fact the only Sabres defenders with worse numbers are!?!? You guessed it, Big Johnson with -15.8 and Clifton with -9.4... sorry connor I guess you are 3rd worst. 

But wait, that's just shot attempts at even strength and we all know that shot attempts don't always mean good shots right? So let's look next at xgf% which is XGF/XGFA... Here we get some better news! So that's nice right? Now he has never had a positive xgf% and this year he ranks... 4th behind Jokiharju, Rasmus Dahlin, and Ryan Johnson. Erik Johnson btw is a SHOCKING -20.9 to this point in the season. No other player is within 10 of that for their career. Anyways back to Muel who is at -1.9. He is terrible at preventing shot attempts but seems to be okay at preventing xgf attempts. Shots on net each equal a tiny percentage and add up to goals, he seems to stop the most dangerous ones which is good! There is hope. 

The bottom line is this, he isn't one of our top 4 defenders. He certainly is not good enough to play with Dahlin. He keeps getting rolled out there due to a perception based on no actual stats, eye test, or magic eye ball analysis. I would make this thread about Erik Johnson who is literally a black hole but he's as good as gone where as we have Samuelsson for another 6 years after this one. 

Now if you want to say he is a defensive defender so that explains the shot issues... no. If he was so good at defense, he should be shutting down plays and turning the puck up ice. Instead, he is not shutting down plays and his passing is atrocious. 

You want a young guy who should sit, I give you Mattias Samuelsson. Ryan Johnson is flat out better. If anyone has the player cards for Johnson and Muel I would love to see them. I let my subscription lapse cuz money so don't have access currently. Either way the coaches are not making decisions to win, they are making decisions because veteran status, favoritism, perception, and emotions. It's time for this staff to grow up or get out because the players aren't the only ones acting young and childish.

 

He would be the piece I flip, that would be a shake up to the room 

[bob_sauve28]

59 minutes ago, WhenWillItEnd66 said:

Do we have to?

Yes! 

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Just now, bob_sauve28 said:

Yes! 

Nope

[bob_sauve28]

4 minutes ago, WhenWillItEnd66 said:

Nope

Ok 🙂

[Marvin]

The root cause is the lack of competent veterans that we have had here over the last few years in the name of "not blocking the kids."  Samuelsson, Power, and Jokiharu could have used a senior partner for the last few years.

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

He would be the piece I flip, that would be a shake up to the room 

That would be seismic, I have no issue with it. 

[Taro T]

35 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

He would be the piece I flip, that would be a shake up to the room 

Not completely opposed to it.  (Right now, am not opposed to much.)

But IF he is traded, then they are left with exactly E Johnson as a stay at home D man. (Stillman too should he ever be brought back up.)  Not a huge fan of every single player being a photocopy (and some mighty fuzzy ones at that) of every other player.

Would be much more agreeable to it if a legit vet stay at home D-man was the return.  (Side pieces to balance out a trade one way or another not really being a concern IMHO.)

[JoeSchmoe]

Here's the team relative expected goals. He's about mid-tier on the team, so his defense must be satisfactory.

Analyzing the stats further though, we all know he's completely incapable of providing any offense, so what is expected by a normal defenseman wouldn't be delivered by Samuelson. In 5 on 5 shooting talent he's 6th worst in the league among D.

Edit: The question is though, is he consistently getting more tough matchups vs the other D men on the team? If so, he MAY still be playing up to his contract.

Edited December 20, 2023 by JoeSchmoe

[Scottysabres]

He's bad, like really bad. He lacks speed, puck control skills, and, apparently, vision on the ice.

[PerreaultForever]

In fairness, the players being put on the ice against top opponents are to some extent these guys with the worst stats. As the team is often under attack in those situations those guys are thrown to the wolves so to speak. Dahlin gets put out with the top line and if they generate offense his stats go up. If Johnson Clifton roll out with the third line their stats can go down. There's part of your differential right there.  Who you play against matters and what the forwards do matters even more.

1 hour ago, phil_soisson said:

Listening to Samuelsson, I've always thought his heart is in Philly, to the point that maybe subconsciously, he doesn't really want to be in Buffalo?

Trade to Philly no doubt in a year he'd become a top defender for them. Risto's moved up to -0.6 

maybe, just maybe, stop looking at the players and start looking at the coaches and the lack of a proper team defensive system.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

In fairness, the players being put on the ice against top opponents are to some extent these guys with the worst stats. As the team is often under attack in those situations those guys are thrown to the wolves so to speak. Dahlin gets put out with the top line and if they generate offense his stats go up. If Johnson Clifton roll out with the third line their stats can go down. There's part of your differential right there.  Who you play against matters and what the forwards do matters even more.

Trade to Philly no doubt in a year he'd become a top defender for them. Risto's moved up to -0.6 

maybe, just maybe, stop looking at the players and start looking at the coaches and the lack of a proper team defensive system.

Ding, ding, ding.

[John Tucker]

His play has been awful.  He can’t skate, makes dumb decisions (see Power), offers nothing in the offensive zone and is another big body that shows zero physicality (Power).  I do think coaching, or lack thereof is a factor with him, but with his pedigree you would think he’d already have a lot of that taken care of.  I think we’ve seen the best of what he has to offer.  Yet another “core” player that KA has missed on.

 

Oh, and he’s as durable as fine china

Edited December 20, 2023 by John Tucker

[Night Train]

He and Power have been terrible. This is why you don't rush to overpay some players based on " potential " .

[Marvin]

44 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

In fairness, the players being put on the ice against top opponents are to some extent these guys with the worst stats. As the team is often under attack in those situations those guys are thrown to the wolves so to speak. Dahlin gets put out with the top line and if they generate offense his stats go up. If Johnson Clifton roll out with the third line their stats can go down. There's part of your differential right there.  Who you play against matters and what the forwards do matters even more.

Trade to Philly no doubt in a year he'd become a top defender for them. Risto's moved up to -0.6 

maybe, just maybe, stop looking at the players and start looking at the coaches and the lack of a proper team defensive system.

We have a winner.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

In fairness, the players being put on the ice against top opponents are to some extent these guys with the worst stats. As the team is often under attack in those situations those guys are thrown to the wolves so to speak. Dahlin gets put out with the top line and if they generate offense his stats go up. If Johnson Clifton roll out with the third line their stats can go down. There's part of your differential right there.  Who you play against matters and what the forwards do matters even more.

Trade to Philly no doubt in a year he'd become a top defender for them. Risto's moved up to -0.6 

maybe, just maybe, stop looking at the players and start looking at the coaches and the lack of a proper team defensive system.

Is that the same risto who was scratched a bunch last year and had been terrible for years in Philly? That Risto? 

It's both. The players aren't good and systems not good. 

[sabresparaavida]

2 hours ago, Second Line Center said:

Yea if I’m disappointed in Clifton I’m very frustrated with Samuelson.  
 

I don’t get it.  He looked like our most important player for almost a full season. He has to be playing thru something.  
 

That btw is the problem with him the injuries.  

He never looked like our most important player last season, neither the eye test nor analytics back that up. The only reason that  was ever an idea, was our record with/without him. And that was more a testament to our defensive depth, as his injuries often coincided with other defensive injuries, and our depth was bad enough that Bryson was still in the top 6.