Dylan Cozens' shooting woes

[LGR4GM]

This came up elsewhere but we should talk about Cozens shooting issue because it is a problem. 

 

He's 17th on this list at -4.2

Edited December 13, 2023 by LGR4GM

[Brawndo]

 

He needs Jobu

[K-9]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This came up elsewhere but we should talk about Cozens shooting issue because it is a problem. 

 

He's 17th on this list at -4.2

Am I correct in reading this as DC being 4.4 goals behind where he should be to this point in the season? If so, a few games with better puck luck and he’s right back on pace. I’d be more worried if he wasn’t getting the opportunities in the first place. Something tells me when they start going in, the floodgates will open and he’ll start scoring in bunches.

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Am I correct in reading this as DC being 4.4 goals behind where he should be to this point in the season? If so, a few games with better puck luck and he’s right back on pace. I’d be more worried if he wasn’t getting the opportunities in the first place. Something tells me when they start going in, the floodgates will open and he’ll start scoring in bunches.

That's the hope.

Really thought getting the OT winner a few weeks back was going to flip that switch for him.  Doesn't appear to be the case.  The next guess/hope is that getting his security blanket Quinn back on his wing does the trick.

[sabresparaavida]

8 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Am I correct in reading this as DC being 4.4 goals behind where he should be to this point in the season? If so, a few games with better puck luck and he’s right back on pace. I’d be more worried if he wasn’t getting the opportunities in the first place. Something tells me when they start going in, the floodgates will open and he’ll start scoring in bunches.

Almost correct. According to this, DC is 4.4 goals behind the expected goals for his shots with a league average shooter. The model also incorporates that Cozens is a below average finisher, and has him at 4.2 goals less than expected for his shooting talent. 

[mjd1001]

As mentioned, he is starting to get opportunities  so you HOPE they start going in....but if he simply isn't as good of a finisher as we all hope, thats the problem. He won't "finish" as many of those oportunites as needed.

I'm not too good with the fancy stats, but as per the other thread, every year of his career he was 6-8% shooting percentage, his career numbers besides last year of course then average out in that area....and that is what he is doing this year.

Was last year the exception when he almost doubled it?  Is he really a 6-8% shooter? (I remember befor last year several other posters saying he just wasn't a finisher).  Or can you expect him to get in the mid teens like he did last year? or is the truth someplace in between.

If the truth is someplace in between, then he's not a 30+ goal scorer, he's more like an 18-20 goal guy.  Of course we all want him to get back to last year's level and be a 30 goal guy. Worst case scenario?  Hes is what he was his rookie year, his 2nd hear, and this year...which means he probably can only be counted on for goals in the teens.

DG mentioned in a press conference and again on WGR that when this team is fully healthy, Cozens faces the 2nd and 3rd lines of the other team, and more bottom pair or at least 2nd pair defensement. Against 'lesser' matchups he may do better. This year with the injuries, he has been facing some better guys on the other team, maybe that is part of what the issue is.

Edited December 13, 2023 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

42 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

He needs Jobu

"I say ***** you Jobu, I do it myself" - JJ Peterka probably 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

As mentioned, he is starting to get opportunities  so you HOPE they start going in....but if he simply isn't as good of a finisher as we all hope, thats the problem. He won't "finish" as many of those oportunites as needed.

I'm not too good with the fancy stats, but as per the other thread, every year of his career he was 6-8% shooting percentage, his career numbers besides last year of course then average out in that area....and that is what he is doing this year.

Was last year the exception when he almost doubled it?  Is he really a 6-8% shooter? (I remember befor last year several other posters saying he just wasn't a finisher).  Or can you expect him to get in the mid teens like he did last year? or is the truth someplace in between.

If the truth is someplace in between, then he's not a 30+ goal scorer, he's more like an 18-20 goal guy.  Of course we all want him to get back to last year's level and be a 30 goal guy. Worst case scenario?  Hes is what he was his rookie year, his 2nd hear, and this year...which means he probably can only be counted on for goals in the teens.

DG mentioned in a press conference and again on WGR that when this team is fully healthy, Cozens faces the 2nd and 3rd lines of the other team, and more bottom pair or at leas 2nd pair defensement. Against 'lesser' matchups he may do better. This year with the injuries, he has been facing some better guys on the other team, maybe that is part of what the issue is.

Right but as noted you're adding 2 years of 222 shots at 7.8% and comparing to 1 year of 212 shots at... whatever it is 14% or something. 

Every year of his career was 2 years before last year. We're comparing about 52% of his shots to 48% in reality. 

[bob_sauve28]

He will get his goals, he had a good game last night. The chances are coming, the goals will follow 

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

If the truth is someplace in between, then he's not a 30+ goal scorer, he's more like an 18-20 goal guy.  Of course we all want him to get back to last year's level and be a 30 goal guy. Worst case scenario?  Hes is what he was his rookie year, his 2nd hear, and this year...which means he probably can only be counted on for goals in the teens.

DG mentioned in a press conference and again on WGR that when this team is fully healthy, Cozens faces the 2nd and 3rd lines of the other team, and more bottom pair or at leas 2nd pair defensement. Against 'lesser' matchups he may do better. This year with the injuries, he has been facing some better guys on the other team, maybe that is part of what the issue is.

25g is the middle. He sits around 9-11% with around 230-250 shots he gets there

[PickaPecaPickles]

I predicted in the Habs game thread he would break out, given how close he’s been and how that line is playing. I said in the AZ game thread my expectations were very low for a team win. So, I’m calling it now, Cozens will stay in his slump. 
😁

[Big Guava]

These things tend to even out over time. Perhaps he was well above what his "norm" would be in a given season last year and it's balancing out this year?

[mjd1001]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

25g is the middle. He sits around 9-11% with around 230-250 shots he gets there

I think 18-20 is closer to the middle....The reason I figured on less goals is I think 230 to 250 is way too high for him.

For his career, he averages 180 shots per 82 games.

Last year (his best year) he got 211 shots

This year he is shooting at a 203 shot pace per 82 (and will likely ony be about 180-190 because of missed already).

He hasn't really shown anything to think he will be anything more than a 200, MAYBE 220 shot per year guy.

Edited December 13, 2023 by mjd1001

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

This came up elsewhere but we should talk about Cozens shooting issue because it is a problem. 

 

He's 17th on this list at -4.2

I still believe that you make your own luck (to a point, of course.) But he has looked just a little off everywhere on the ice. I wonder if he’s still nursing an injury.

I sure hope that that’s what it is, cuz if he could get going, and others return to form (or the ice), I think there is no way they don’t make the playoffs.

[That Aud Smell]

Cozens as a ~20 goal scorer - around 50+ pts - would be fine - provided he’s playing strong and confident in all other aspects of his game. Last season was, I think, a true outlier of a season.

Did Adams pay for ‘22-23 Cozens?

Also, last season’s Cozens has haunted this season’s Cozens.

[SDS]

Two years ago I was super down on his offensive game. He had a beer league shot that hit the keeper in the middle of a chest every time. It was comical. I thought he turned the corner last year, but maybe that really was an outlier.

[North Buffalo]

7 minutes ago, SDS said:

Two years ago I was super down on his offensive game. He had a beer league shot that hit the keeper in the middle of a chest every time. It was comical. I thought he turned the corner last year, but maybe that really was an outlier.

Kid's shot seems to be coming back last couple games but that injury and playing without 2 guys he had chemistry with has really hurt him... imo growing pains... but he seems to need some chaos in front of the net.

[Pimlach]

He is young.  Still going through the learning process and the mental part of the game.  He is going to get stronger, like Tage did.   He will become a consistently good player. 

The goals will come.  

Edited December 13, 2023 by Pimlach

[JohnC]

30 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

He is young.  Still going through the learning process and the mental part of the game.  He is going to get stronger, like Tage did.   He will become a consistently good player. 

The goals will come.  

I would love to see a Quinn/Cozens/JJ line. 

[Doohicksie]

9 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I would love to see a Quinn/Cozens/JJ line. 

Your wish is my command.

 

[Pimlach]

41 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I would love to see a Quinn/Cozens/JJ line. 

No doubt DG will try them a few times.  

[Mango]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

As mentioned, he is starting to get opportunities  so you HOPE they start going in....but if he simply isn't as good of a finisher as we all hope, thats the problem. He won't "finish" as many of those oportunites as needed.

I'm not too good with the fancy stats, but as per the other thread, every year of his career he was 6-8% shooting percentage, his career numbers besides last year of course then average out in that area....and that is what he is doing this year.

Was last year the exception when he almost doubled it?  Is he really a 6-8% shooter? (I remember befor last year several other posters saying he just wasn't a finisher).  Or can you expect him to get in the mid teens like he did last year? or is the truth someplace in between.

If the truth is someplace in between, then he's not a 30+ goal scorer, he's more like an 18-20 goal guy.  Of course we all want him to get back to last year's level and be a 30 goal guy. Worst case scenario?  Hes is what he was his rookie year, his 2nd hear, and this year...which means he probably can only be counted on for goals in the teens.

DG mentioned in a press conference and again on WGR that when this team is fully healthy, Cozens faces the 2nd and 3rd lines of the other team, and more bottom pair or at least 2nd pair defensement. Against 'lesser' matchups he may do better. This year with the injuries, he has been facing some better guys on the other team, maybe that is part of what the issue is.

 

When I first read this, I nod my head and go "oh yeah, I get that, of course."

But it doesn't pass the sniff test once to take even a casual dive. With the emergence of Mitts, Cozens has been pushed down the depth chart. Even now he is centering the second line because Thompson is coming back from injury. Cozens has spent decent time as a third line center this year, and no real time on a first line. He was our second line center last year. 

I am failing to see how Cozens is getting tougher looks from opponents after moving down the depth chart. 

[Mango]

58 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I would love to see a Quinn/Cozens/JJ line. 

Why? 

Before Thompsons injury JJP and Mitts were playing the best hockey of either of their careers. Quinn is coming off of a very major injury. Why on earth would you want to handicap JJP after he has been one of the best all around forwards on the roster? 

That seems like a move to help Cozens at the expense of Mitts and JJP. 

[pi2000]

He'll be fine.

[mjd1001]

8 hours ago, Mango said:

 

When I first read this, I nod my head and go "oh yeah, I get that, of course."

But it doesn't pass the sniff test once to take even a casual dive. With the emergence of Mitts, Cozens has been pushed down the depth chart. Even now he is centering the second line because Thompson is coming back from injury. Cozens has spent decent time as a third line center this year, and no real time on a first line. He was our second line center last year. 

I am failing to see how Cozens is getting tougher looks from opponents after moving down the depth chart. 

I was trying to look at it in a positive point of view, but  you might be correct.

I've had discussions on here before with many people, and my view on him is that he is awful in his own zone, and he can't just "look good" or "get chances" in the offensive zone to make up for that. He needs to produce. My fear is 30 goal seasons from him are going to be the exception, not the norm.