Sabres at the quarter pole

[dudacek]

The Sabres sit at 9/9/2, 3 points out of a playoff spot and 19th overall.

They are 25th in goals for and 15th in goals against

They are 5/5 at home and 4/4/2 on the road and have won back-to-back games just once.

 

Good developments:

• Secondary scorers Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka have stepped up
• Jordan Greenway has been effective adding strength and good defence to the middle six
• Erik Johnson, Ryan Johnson and Connor Clifton have been a notable upgrade over Bryson, Clague and Lyubushkin
• EJ, Greenway and Tage Thompson have keyed a much improved PK
• Ukko Pekka Lukkonnen (5/3/1 2.71 .914) has provided competent NHL goaltending

 

Bad developments:

• 30-goal scorers Thompson, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens have 16 goals combined.
• The bottom 6 of Olofsson, Greenway, Krebs, Okposo, Girgensons and Benson has 8 goals combined.
• They've been outscored in first periods and scored 1st just 8 times (6/1/1)
• The power play is at 13.5% - roughly half last year’s pace.
• Devon Levi has just 2 starts over .900 and 5 under .890

 

It’s simplistic, but one could make a case that the Sabres record can almost entirely be chalked up to their bad power play. Seven of their losses have been in tight games where a key PP score would have made a difference. Turn 2 of those into wins and they’re in the playoffs.

Consensus around here seemed to have been that if this team added some depth on defence and got average goaltending this was a playoff team. The first two things have happened but the 3rd hasn’t followed.

I think that by and large, that’s because too many players handpicked by management to be central pieces of this team - Thompson, Tuch, Cozens, Okposo, Krebs, Power, Samuelsson Levi - have not been nearly as good as they have previously shown or as the team wants and needs them to be.

Is it that because they’re still transitioning to a more defensively responsible style? Coaching? Self-imposed pressure? They aren’t that good to begin with? A mix of all of the above?

I think this team can and should be better. But those identity games they were building last year - the games where they just keep coming regardless of the score - have been lacking, as has the fearlessness that fed them.

There’s still time.

[French Collection]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres sit at 9/9/2, 3 points out of a playoff spot and 19th overall.

They are 25th in goals for and 15th in goals against

They are 5/5 at home and 4/4/2 on the road and have won back-to-back games just once.

 

Good developments:

• Secondary scorers Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka have stepped up
• Jordan Greenway has been effective adding strength and good defence to the middle six
• Erik Johnson, Ryan Johnson and Connor Clifton have been a notable upgrade over Bryson, Clague and Lyubushkin
• EJ, Greenway and Tage Thompson have keyed a much improved PK
• Ukko Pekka Lukkonnen (5/3/1 2.71 .914) has provided competent NHL goaltending

 

Bad developments:

• 30-goal scorers Thompson, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens have 16 goals combined.
• The bottom 6 of Olofsson, Greenway, Krebs, Okposo, Girgensons and Benson has 8 goals combined.
• They've been outscored in first periods and scored 1st just 8 times (6/1/1)
• The power play is at 13.5% - roughly half last year’s pace.
• Devon Levi has just 2 starts over .900 and 5 under .890

 

It’s simplistic, but one could make a case that the Sabres record can almost entirely be chalked up to their bad power play. Seven of their losses have been in tight games where a key PP score would have made a difference. Turn 2 of those into wins and they’re in the playoffs.

Consensus around here seemed to have been that if this team added some depth on defence and got average goaltending this was a playoff team. The first two things have happened but the 3rd hasn’t followed.

I think that by and large, that’s because too many players handpicked by management to be central pieces of this team - Thompson, Tuch, Cozens, Okposo, Krebs, Power, Samuelsson Levi - have not been nearly as good as they have previously shown or as the team wants and needs them to be.

Is it that because they’re still transitioning to a more defensively responsible style? Coaching? Self-imposed pressure? They aren’t that good to begin with? A mix of all of the above?

I think this team can and should be better. But those identity games they were building last year - the games where they just keep coming regardless of the score - have been lacking, as has the fearlessness that fed them.

There’s still time.

Good post.

Last night’s third period was similar to last season’s attacking mentality. They need to take that attitude and blend it with their improved defensive conscience.

I am not happy with their start, the expectations were higher. They are hanging in there despite regression from many players and a few key injuries.

I like knowing that there is way more upside to a large chunk of the roster. Those guys need to improve their play and it will make a difference. Power, Samuelsson, Krebs and Levi can have an impact on games by elevating their play. Cozens has way more to give.

If they can stay near the playoff teams, when TNT & Quinn return, that will be a huge injection of talent for the 2nd half. Kane could help here too, but I’m not confident of that.

KA should support them at the deadline to fill in a gap or two. 

[Taro T]

Play 0.600 hockey for the next 10-20 games until reinforcements are back and they can do what they need to do to make the playoffs.  Leaves 42-52 games to find the 4 points they should've had at this point but don't have.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres sit at 9/9/2, 3 points out of a playoff spot and 19th overall.

They are 25th in goals for and 15th in goals against

They are 5/5 at home and 4/4/2 on the road and have won back-to-back games just once.

 

Good developments:

• Secondary scorers Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka have stepped up
• Jordan Greenway has been effective adding strength and good defence to the middle six
• Erik Johnson, Ryan Johnson and Connor Clifton have been a notable upgrade over Bryson, Clague and Lyubushkin
• EJ, Greenway and Tage Thompson have keyed a much improved PK
• Ukko Pekka Lukkonnen (5/3/1 2.71 .914) has provided competent NHL goaltending

 

Bad developments:

• 30-goal scorers Thompson, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens have 16 goals combined.
• The bottom 6 of Olofsson, Greenway, Krebs, Okposo, Girgensons and Benson has 8 goals combined.
• They've been outscored in first periods and scored 1st just 8 times (6/1/1)
• The power play is at 13.5% - roughly half last year’s pace.
• Devon Levi has just 2 starts over .900 and 5 under .890

 

It’s simplistic, but one could make a case that the Sabres record can almost entirely be chalked up to their bad power play. Seven of their losses have been in tight games where a key PP score would have made a difference. Turn 2 of those into wins and they’re in the playoffs.

Consensus around here seemed to have been that if this team added some depth on defence and got average goaltending this was a playoff team. The first two things have happened but the 3rd hasn’t followed.

I think that by and large, that’s because too many players handpicked by management to be central pieces of this team - Thompson, Tuch, Cozens, Okposo, Krebs, Power, Samuelsson Levi - have not been nearly as good as they have previously shown or as the team wants and needs them to be.

Is it that because they’re still transitioning to a more defensively responsible style? Coaching? Self-imposed pressure? They aren’t that good to begin with? A mix of all of the above?

I think this team can and should be better. But those identity games they were building last year - the games where they just keep coming regardless of the score - have been lacking, as has the fearlessness that fed them.

There’s still time.

Great post. 
 

I bolded a key point.  I think you named all the key players that started slow and are behind compared last years effort.   It seemed that Tuch and Cozens started out hurt, and then continued to have health issues.  Tuch seems to be back.  Cozens played better the past two games and the shield is gone so maybe he keeps progressing.    Tage was a slow starter last year too.  He contributed in other ways but  we need that shot.  As you point out, the PP is bad. 

Kyle, Krebs, Muel, and Power all need to snap out of it.  Obviously Kyle has very little in the tank.  

This preseason was different.  It was geared heavily on looking at prospects, even prospects still in college or juniors got long looks.  
We rarely saw the real Sabres and I just think that is part of the slow start.  Fans expected them to come out fast and look like last year and it hasn’t happen but for a few periods here and there.   
 

Goaltending is considered to be at least average this season. The Levi situation is unique (can’t think of another word).  How many GMs put so much on a 21 year old rookie goalie with 2 years of ncaa experience?  We are fortunate that UPL is stepping up.   It’s gotta be hard for any of these goalies to stay sharp in a 3 goalie rotation.   Three goalies still means you don’t have a goalie.  I wonder where this goes as the season forges on.  

Edited November 25, 2023 by Pimlach

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres sit at 9/9/2, 3 points out of a playoff spot and 19th overall.

They are 25th in goals for and 15th in goals against

They are 5/5 at home and 4/4/2 on the road and have won back-to-back games just once.

 

Good developments:

• Secondary scorers Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka have stepped up
• Jordan Greenway has been effective adding strength and good defence to the middle six
• Erik Johnson, Ryan Johnson and Connor Clifton have been a notable upgrade over Bryson, Clague and Lyubushkin
• EJ, Greenway and Tage Thompson have keyed a much improved PK
• Ukko Pekka Lukkonnen (5/3/1 2.71 .914) has provided competent NHL goaltending

 

Bad developments:

• 30-goal scorers Thompson, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens have 16 goals combined.
• The bottom 6 of Olofsson, Greenway, Krebs, Okposo, Girgensons and Benson has 8 goals combined.
• They've been outscored in first periods and scored 1st just 8 times (6/1/1)
• The power play is at 13.5% - roughly half last year’s pace.
• Devon Levi has just 2 starts over .900 and 5 under .890

 

It’s simplistic, but one could make a case that the Sabres record can almost entirely be chalked up to their bad power play. Seven of their losses have been in tight games where a key PP score would have made a difference. Turn 2 of those into wins and they’re in the playoffs.

Consensus around here seemed to have been that if this team added some depth on defence and got average goaltending this was a playoff team. The first two things have happened but the 3rd hasn’t followed.

I think that by and large, that’s because too many players handpicked by management to be central pieces of this team - Thompson, Tuch, Cozens, Okposo, Krebs, Power, Samuelsson Levi - have not been nearly as good as they have previously shown or as the team wants and needs them to be.

Is it that because they’re still transitioning to a more defensively responsible style? Coaching? Self-imposed pressure? They aren’t that good to begin with? A mix of all of the above?

I think this team can and should be better. But those identity games they were building last year - the games where they just keep coming regardless of the score - have been lacking, as has the fearlessness that fed them.

There’s still time.

Very well said 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Excellent analysis, as usual.

And NO made up numbers.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Despite UPL’s vast improvement, the goaltending remains below average.  (Numbers from hockey-reference)

Sabres 5 on 5 save % .907.  NHL average .918.  Sabres overall save % .895.  League average .897. 

[Archie Lee]

49 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Great post. 
 

I bolded a key point.  I think you named all the key players that started slow and are behind compared last years effort.   It seemed that Tuch and Cozens started out hurt, and then continued to have health issues.  Tuch seems to be back.  Cozens played better the past two games and the shield is gone so maybe he keeps progressing.    Tage was a slow starter last year too.  He contributed in other ways but  we need that shot.  As you point out, the PP is bad. 

Kyle, Krebs, Muel, and Power all need to snap out of it.  Obviously Kyle has very little in the tank.  

This preseason was different.  It was geared heavily on looking at prospects, even prospects still in college or juniors got long looks.  
We rarely saw the real Sabres and I just think that is part of the slow start.  Fans expected them to come out fast and look like last year and it hasn’t happen but for a few periods here and there.   
 

Goaltending is considered to be at least average this season. The Levi situation is unique (can’t think of another word).  How many GMs put so much on a 21 year old rookie goalie with 2 years of ncaa experience?  We are fortunate that UPL is stepping up.   It’s gotta be hard for any of these goalies to stay sharp in a 3 goalie rotation.   Three goalies still means you don’t have a goalie.  I wonder where this goes as the season forges on.  

Re: goaltending, I think it is time to send Levi down. If UPL and Comrie can maintain their levels of play with an increased workload, we are a better team just from removing Levi from the equation (for now; I’m not down on Levi’s future). 
 

The one point I don’t really agree with is the notion that our 3 goalies can’t be expected to stay sharp in this rotation. Most of us would have agreed at the start of the season that any of our 3 goalies (and particularly Comrie and UPL) would at this point in their NHL careers, be best suited to being a back-up to a true 1A. That would mean playing about every 3rd game. NHL back-up goalies are expected to be sharp and play well, relative to their talent level, when they are called upon. I don’t think we should expect any of our 3 goalies to suffer from their current playing time. Indeed, my bigger worry is that we don’t have one who is ready to sustain a larger workload. 

[Pimlach]

46 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Re: goaltending, I think it is time to send Levi down. If UPL and Comrie can maintain their levels of play with an increased workload, we are a better team just from removing Levi from the equation (for now; I’m not down on Levi’s future). 
 

The one point I don’t really agree with is the notion that our 3 goalies can’t be expected to stay sharp in this rotation. Most of us would have agreed at the start of the season that any of our 3 goalies (and particularly Comrie and UPL) would at this point in their NHL careers, be best suited to being a back-up to a true 1A. That would mean playing about every 3rd game. NHL back-up goalies are expected to be sharp and play well, relative to their talent level, when they are called upon. I don’t think we should expect any of our 3 goalies to suffer from their current playing time. Indeed, my bigger worry is that we don’t have one who is ready to sustain a larger workload. 

Agree that if UPL and Comrie are good enough and holding up the fort then Levi could be getting better in Rochester.  

A backup that plays every third game still gets lots of practice and all of the extra shots in practice that he wants.  3 goalies in practice is a pain and one more thing to manage.  

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, French Collection said:

Last night’s third period was similar to last season’s attacking mentality.

This statement has been true for decades.  When the Sabres attack they are the better team.  When they react, they suck.  I think the focus on defense has them in a reactive mode.  I think Donny's made the point about defense but needs to tell them to play fearless hockey (apparently that's what Okie told them in the second intermission against Pitt).  Attack, attack, attack.

[Doohicksie]

I think the Sabres are about to turn a corner.  The infusion of young talent will be the shot in the arm this team needs.  JJP and Benson have been spark plugs lately, I think Kulich and Rosen will also be positives.  The Sabres will begin to score more, and when Tommer and Quinn return they will heat up even more.

I am starting to expect that Levi will be sent down to Rochester to play a ton of games and develop, while UPL will become the starter and Comrie the backup.  If Oopie falters, the load will shift to Comrie.  I'm sure that one or both of them will develop some nagging injuries and need a break, and that's when they will bring Levi back.  Levi is still the future.  UPL is the present though, and with any luck Comrie will round into a 1B to Oopie's 1A.

[French Collection]

8 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I am starting to expect that Levi will be sent down to Rochester to play a ton of games and develop, while UPL will become the starter and Comrie the backup.  If Oopie falters, the load will shift to Comrie.  I'm sure that one or both of them will develop some nagging injuries and need a break, and that's when they will bring Levi back.  Levi is still the future.  UPL is the present though, and with any luck Comrie will round into a 1B to Oopie's 1A.

Unfortunately the Amerks only have 4 games in the next 18 days.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, French Collection said:

Unfortunately the Amerks only have 4 games in the next 18 days.

Shh, don't bring facts into the discussion.

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I think the Sabres are about to turn a corner.  The infusion of young talent will be the shot in the arm this team needs.  JJP and Benson have been spark plugs lately, I think Kulich and Rosen will also be positives.  The Sabres will begin to score more, and when Tommer and Quinn return they will heat up even more.

I am starting to expect that Levi will be sent down to Rochester to play a ton of games and develop, while UPL will become the starter and Comrie the backup.  If Oopie falters, the load will shift to Comrie.  I'm sure that one or both of them will develop some nagging injuries and need a break, and that's when they will bring Levi back.  Levi is still the future.  UPL is the present though, and with any luck Comrie will round into a 1B to Oopie's 1A.

6K playing well is indeed super key, if that continues it keeps our floor within striking distance of the playoffs for most of the season imo. I need to see better from the second guy still, as our overall results in net still trend to slightly below average, but it’s at least something to work with, right now.

I too sense we are at a bit of an inflection point with regards to the season. Adams seemed hesitant to bring up Kulich/Rosen. If these guys prove ready to contribute to the team in a true “worthy of a top 12 role” way, we may indeed have the forward depth needed to secure a playoff spot, regardless of the time we wasted in putting the on-ice roster together. There’s too much runway left to care too much about the slow start if they can shift gears quick, here.

If Kulich/Rosen prove not ready to make a meaningful difference, it swings the other way and we are probably still lacking the NHL forward depth necessary for a season where playoffs are the mandate.

One thing that is essentially a myth is the, “and then when Thompson and Quinn return we’ll be off and running” line of thought. We will almost certainly be cycling other players through the injury recovery process by that time. The goal isn’t to get to a fully healthy roster, it’s always to find ways to win in spite of it, because injuries, not health, is the day to day reality of an 82 game season  

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by Thorny

[Doohicksie]

2 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Unfortunately the Amerks only have 4 games in the next 18 days.

I'm not saying right now, but sometime soon.

[French Collection]

Just now, Taro T said:

Shh, don't bring facts into the discussion.

Those kind of numbers are as advanced analytics as I can muster.

[Porous Five Hole]

I think we all expected the Sabres to be the youngest team in the NHL.  But I doubt anyone expected the team to get YOUNGER from opening day to this point.  The Sabres now have nine players on their active roster under the age of 23:

Zach Benson (18)
Jiri Kulich (19)
Isak Rosen (20)
JJ Peterka (21)
Owen Power (21)
Devon Levi (21)
Peyton Krebs (22)
Ryan Johnson (22)
Dylan Cozens (22)

(Quinn would qualify as #10 if he were healthy) 

 

 

[Thorner]

One thing I’ve been pleased about is, anecdotally, the fanbase holding pretty firm on “playoffs being the expectation” this year. Much more frustration at the slow start under the prism of this context than any sort of excuse making (which you see, but not nearly as prevalent). I like that. It’s nice to see the general awareness that year 4 should be about achieving something tangible. Tuch cited the boos yesterday as spurring them on, right? A little reminder wasn’t misplaced. It’s good stuff. And if we make the playoffs, Adams will certainly have done an acceptable job. 4 seasons is enough time to expect a playoff birth, but he’d still go down as the only GM of the last 3 to actually do it. 

[JohninMinn.]

If a few more super prospects like Power flame out early we'll be back in development hell.

Edited November 25, 2023 by JohninMinn.

[Gatorman0519]

Hopefully we can stay in the mix until Tage and Quinn are back in January and maybe with the kids catch fire. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, JohninMinn. said:

If a few more super prospects like Power flame out early we'll be back in development hell.

Power's flamed out?  Really?

Interesting.

[JohninMinn.]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Power's flamed out?  Really?

Interesting.

You're in the wrong thread.

[Thorner]

What about at the quarter and a tiny bit pole

[Goldseatsaud]

Be patient only been waiting since 1970

[Stoner]