Casey Mittelstadt's next contract

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Thorny said:

tl;dr

I said you had it, man. No need to lay it on thick

Not laying in on think, just explaining why I believed in the kid.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not laying in on think, just explaining why I believed in the kid.

How long have we both posted on this board?

was a joke (The tl;dr thing)

Edited November 13, 2023 by Thorny

[kas23]

On 11/11/2023 at 12:47 PM, Doohickie said:

HE HAD A PARTIALLY DISLOCATED SHOULDER WHEN HE COULDN'T DO A SINGLE PULLUP.  Does no one remember that?

If I were Adams, I wouldn’t give him one hot penny until he can get down to the gym and give me 2 pull ups. And I want him to go all the way up, not that cheating stuff. 

[nfreeman]

I am a longtime Mittelstadt skeptic, so take this with as much salt as you like:  I think he's been pretty bad during this last 2-week stretch, in which the Sabres have pretty much punted their season away (before last night, the Sabres had lost 5 out of 6, to drop to 6 below DeLuca .500).

In the last 7 games, Mitts has 2 pts despite playing over 22 min per game most nights and getting top PP usage.

More importantly, "dumb Casey" has IMHO reclaimed his prime spot in Mitts' game -- he makes bad decisions with the puck and turns it over pretty much every time he gets it in the O-zone.  I don't think he created a single chance last night.

Both he and Cozens -- who are supposed to be battling for the #2C spot and be team mainstays -- have spit out the bit right when the Sabres really need them.  But Cozens is already under contract, so there is no decision to be made with him.

I don't see how they can possibly give Mitts a contract in the ballpark of Cozens' deal. 

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I am a longtime Mittelstadt skeptic, so take this with as much salt as you like:  I think he's been pretty bad during this last 2-week stretch, in which the Sabres have pretty much punted their season away (before last night, the Sabres had lost 5 out of 6, to drop to 6 below DeLuca .500).

In the last 7 games, Mitts has 2 pts despite playing over 22 min per game most nights and getting top PP usage.

More importantly, "dumb Casey" has IMHO reclaimed his prime spot in Mitts' game -- he makes bad decisions with the puck and turns it over pretty much every time he gets it in the O-zone.  I don't think he created a single chance last night.

Both he and Cozens -- who are supposed to be battling for the #2C spot and be team mainstays -- have spit out the bit right when the Sabres really need them.  But Cozens is already under contract, so there is no decision to be made with him.

I don't see how they can possibly give Mitts a contract in the ballpark of Cozens' deal. 

It's not surprising that people watch games and come away with diametrically different views. I'm not saying that your view on Casey is wrong.  However, my view on Mitts is much different. Regardless what his stats are, in my mind he has been one of our better players so far. He plays as hard as anyone, and I consider him to be one of our better wall papers. One of the bonuses of having Mitts on the team is that he can be moved up and down the lines and still be a good player. I think you are undervaluing the value of his versatility. What it comes down to is: Different eyes have different views. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I am a longtime Mittelstadt skeptic, so take this with as much salt as you like:  I think he's been pretty bad during this last 2-week stretch, in which the Sabres have pretty much punted their season away (before last night, the Sabres had lost 5 out of 6, to drop to 6 below DeLuca .500).

In the last 7 games, Mitts has 2 pts despite playing over 22 min per game most nights and getting top PP usage.

More importantly, "dumb Casey" has IMHO reclaimed his prime spot in Mitts' game -- he makes bad decisions with the puck and turns it over pretty much every time he gets it in the O-zone.  I don't think he created a single chance last night.

Both he and Cozens -- who are supposed to be battling for the #2C spot and be team mainstays -- have spit out the bit right when the Sabres really need them.  But Cozens is already under contract, so there is no decision to be made with him.

I don't see how they can possibly give Mitts a contract in the ballpark of Cozens' deal. 

I actually agree with some of the above.  In the last 9 or so games Casey has struggled with carrying the weight of an under-performing team.  The biggest change is that he has been looking for his shot more.  In his first 20 games, Casey had 25 total shots.  He has taken 21 in the last 9.  It's resulted in 3 goals over the 9 games, but I think it's taken away some of his playmaking (0 assists in his last 7 games), which is his highest and best use.

The shocking thing is Casey is tied for the forward lead in points with 22 and has only 3 pts (all assists) on the PP this season.   JJP, who has 21 pts, also has only 3 pts on the PP (1g, 2a).  

Where I am going to disagree is I don't see the rash of alleged turnovers referenced above.  It seems to be about the same as always or about one turnover for one takeaway.    

One other big change in Casey is vastly improved performance in the faceoff circle of late.  Over the last 10 games, Casey has won well over 50% of his draws and was over 80% last night.  

I think this is a case of one of our few consistent players trying to do too much in the face of a struggling underperforming roster with little or no help from the big $ players on the roster including TNT and Cozens.  DC has zero goals in his last 10 games and is -5.  TNT is -7 in his last 10 with only 2 goals.  

[Berg]

3×5.7

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I actually agree with some of the above.  In the last 9 or so games Casey has struggled with carrying the weight of an under-performing team.  The biggest change is that he has been looking for his shot more.  In his first 20 games, Casey had 25 total shots.  He has taken 21 in the last 9.  It's resulted in 3 goals over the 9 games, but I think it's taken away some of his playmaking (0 assists in his last 7 games), which is his highest and best use.

The shocking thing is Casey is tied for the forward lead in points with 22 and has only 3 pts (all assists) on the PP this season.   JJP, who has 21 pts, also has only 3 pts on the PP (1g, 2a).  

Where I am going to disagree is I don't see the rash of alleged turnovers referenced above.  It seems to be about the same as always or about one turnover for one takeaway.    

One other big change in Casey is vastly improved performance in the faceoff circle of late.  Over the last 10 games, Casey has won well over 50% of his draws and was over 80% last night.  

I think this is a case of one of our few consistent players trying to do too much in the face of a struggling underperforming roster with little or no help from the big $ players on the roster including TNT and Cozens.  DC has zero goals in his last 10 games and is -5.  TNT is -7 in his last 10 with only 2 goals.  

Mitts has been our best forward this season (Peterka is second). He is one of the few forwards who has clearly added strength, applies it, and has worked a lot on his two way game. He has been tenacious at times and as you point out is probably our best face off guy now. All of this could be a problem as his agent is going to pull out those TNT and DC contracts, look at KA's offer and say wtf is this? 

[Norcal]

6 hours ago, Berg said:

3×5.7

I like it. I'm not sure Mitts agent would though. 

I'm a little weary about locking up more core guys who haven't even made it to the playoffs yet, let alone performed there and elevated the team. 

[LETSTUCHINGO]

On 11/11/2023 at 11:47 AM, LPJets16 said:

They're not going to trade 37 unless he holds them up for more $$ than they can justify.  That seems unlikely given his personality and attachment to his teammates and coach. 

The problem here is Dahlin was greedy and he's overpaid by $1.5M to $2M.  26 isn't playing like a top 5 in the league Dman.  He's invisible many games, and those high flip lob outs are just ugly turnovers.  Where is there improvement since last year?  Seems like he has plateaued or even regressed.

WHAT???? This is the most absurd post I have seen since being a part of SS! How is he greedy again? He has earned every bit of his contract. He is our best player night in and night out. He plays ungodly minutes, constantly take forwards off the puck, has great vision, is an offensive threat every time he has the puck and is a great leader. He constantly has his teammates back on the ice, fighting more than I'd like. The only knock on him is he can be too aggressive trying to make the big play and I wish he was more of a vocal leader. You're right though, he isn't a top 5 Dman, he's a TOP 3 DMAN!!!

[Jorcus]

I would look at the Mittelstadt contract from 2 points of view. What is his value to the NHL and what is his value to the Sabres. There is a pretty easy formula to determine if a forward is worth over 5M AAV. Does that player score more than .25 goals per game, and does that player score more than .5 points per game? You may pay up some for centers as they are harder to find than wingers but the scoring is the most valued asset in the NHL. Whatever else Casey does well he falls way short in goals per game and his points per game is just marginal above the .5 that teams need to see. Does anyone really project that he is going have a scoring breakout? I think he is pretty much a known quantity. It's going to be hard to justify a contract over 5M per year unless it is a short term one.

What is his value to the Sabres? Well a lot of that is how we are looking around trade deadline time and who is running the show around then. If we are a seller he is a candidate for a rental and once you go that route most of the time they do not return. Lets say things go better and we are still fighting it out and the contract expires we have to look at where he fits on the team. The GM has chosen Thompson and Cousins as the top two centers. (Well I hope they are because they are both better in the middle than on the wing). That leaves you looking for 3rd and 4th line centers. They could come from within or via trade and free agency. It comes down to the question can you get the same or better production for a lower price?

It also comes down to affordability and slotting. Are to going to give Casey a contract that is larger than what Tuch is making at 4.75M? Most teams only carry 3 or 4 forward contracts over 5M per year. We already have 3. We have the added issue of the twin defenseman contracts that are well over that amount. I just can't see them adding another 5M contract for center who does not score enough goals. 

What will be interesting is who will be paid a larger contract next year. Casey or Victor O. Victor has the goal scoring numbers that may justify a 5M plus salary on the open market. He will have to pick up the pace this year but he has been dealing with riding the bench and playing with the pick up players. We all know of the defensive issues and we are not going to pay him 5M next year but he has a good chance of getting it someplace because goals = paycheck.  

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

I would look at the Mittelstadt contract from 2 points of view. What is his value to the NHL and what is his value to the Sabres. There is a pretty easy formula to determine if a forward is worth over 5M AAV. Does that player score more than .25 goals per game, and does that player score more than .5 points per game? You may pay up some for centers as they are harder to find than wingers but the scoring is the most valued asset in the NHL. Whatever else Casey does well he falls way short in goals per game and his points per game is just marginal above the .5 that teams need to see. Does anyone really project that he is going have a scoring breakout? I think he is pretty much a known quantity. It's going to be hard to justify a contract over 5M per year unless it is a short term one.

What is his value to the Sabres? Well a lot of that is how we are looking around trade deadline time and who is running the show around then. If we are a seller he is a candidate for a rental and once you go that route most of the time they do not return. Lets say things go better and we are still fighting it out and the contract expires we have to look at where he fits on the team. The GM has chosen Thompson and Cousins as the top two centers. (Well I hope they are because they are both better in the middle than on the wing). That leaves you looking for 3rd and 4th line centers. They could come from within or via trade and free agency. It comes down to the question can you get the same or better production for a lower price?

It also comes down to affordability and slotting. Are to going to give Casey a contract that is larger than what Tuch is making at 4.75M? Most teams only carry 3 or 4 forward contracts over 5M per year. We already have 3. We have the added issue of the twin defenseman contracts that are well over that amount. I just can't see them adding another 5M contract for center who does not score enough goals. 

What will be interesting is who will be paid a larger contract next year. Casey or Victor O. Victor has the goal scoring numbers that may justify a 5M plus salary on the open market. He will have to pick up the pace this year but he has been dealing with riding the bench and playing with the pick up players. We all know of the defensive issues and we are not going to pay him 5M next year but he has a good chance of getting it someplace because goals = paycheck.  

Quick note here. Mitts the last year and so far this year is well above .5pts per game. He was at 0.72 last year and is at 0.76 this year. His goals per game the last 2 years are 0.18 and 0.21. With the increase in the cap, I would think this summer something in the 5-6mil range is probably what Mitts could expect. On the open market (he's a RFA) he would probably get similar. Really all depends on how the year plays out. I think Olofsson will get a smaller contract than Mitts. If VO had value, a team would have traded for him already. 

[PerreaultForever]

As a point of comparison I think JT Compher might be reasonable. Compher got 5.1/5 years and he's 28. Mitts will warrant a similar number with term being the question. He may want a short term if he thinks he can get an even bigger payday in a long term deal when he qualifies for UFA status. 

[inkman]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

As a point of comparison I think JT Compher might be reasonable. Compher got 5.1/5 years and he's 28. Mitts will warrant a similar number with term being the question. He may want a short term if he thinks he can get an even bigger payday in a long term deal when he qualifies for UFA status. 

I would be shocked and thrilled if the first digit in Casey’s salary was a 5.  

[nfreeman]

14 minutes ago, inkman said:

I would be shocked and thrilled if the first digit in Casey’s salary was a 5.  

I'm not expecting this either, which is why I posted yesterday.  I am pretty skeptical about committing to the kind of contract that I think it will take to keep him.  I think there is a limit to the number of big-dollar forwards a team can have, and I hate the idea of losing, say, Quinn or JJP because they gave Mitts too much $$.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, inkman said:

I would be shocked and thrilled if the first digit in Casey’s salary was a 5.  

Well, I can see how his agent will demand more as I outlined in the other post but if it's higher than 5ish, if it starts with a 6 or 7 this team will be in trouble down the road. 

[Curt]

12 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

As a point of comparison I think JT Compher might be reasonable. Compher got 5.1/5 years and he's 28. Mitts will warrant a similar number with term being the question. He may want a short term if he thinks he can get an even bigger payday in a long term deal when he qualifies for UFA status. 

 

10 hours ago, inkman said:

I would be shocked and thrilled if the first digit in Casey’s salary was a 5.  

Yeah, I’m projecting something in the $6-7M range on a 4+ year deal.

[Curt]

10 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I'm not expecting this either, which is why I posted yesterday.  I am pretty skeptical about committing to the kind of contract that I think it will take to keep him.  I think there is a limit to the number of big-dollar forwards a team can have, and I hate the idea of losing, say, Quinn or JJP because they gave Mitts too much $$.

 

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well, I can see how his agent will demand more as I outlined in the other post but if it's higher than 5ish, if it starts with a 6 or 7 this team will be in trouble down the road. 

I honestly believe that they can sign Mitts to a $6M+ long term contract, and make the money work.

If 2-3 years into the contract, you need to do something like buy out the last year of Skinner’s deal, or trade someone (even Mitts himself, it’s not like he will get trade protection) you can cross that bridge when you come to it.  I don’t see the reason to move out a good player before it’s absolutely necessary.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Curt

[TheAud]

I wouldn’t over-invest in anyone on this roster until they accomplish something tangible like like making the playoffs.

They are locking in a core of mediocrity right now.

[Curt]

40 minutes ago, TheAud said:

I wouldn’t over-invest in anyone on this roster until they accomplish something tangible like like making the playoffs.

They are locking in a core of mediocrity right now.

With that in mind, what would you like to see the team do with Mittelstadt?  He needs a new contract.

[mjd1001]

38 minutes ago, TheAud said:

I wouldn’t over-invest in anyone on this roster until they accomplish something tangible like like making the playoffs.

They are locking in a core of mediocrity right now.

I know what you mean, but I think, at the current moment, Mediocrity is being generous to them.

-In the league they are 7th worst in terms of point percentage

-They are 1 of 2 teams that only has ONE single 2 game win streak and nothing better than that.

-They are bottom 10 in goals scored per game, AND goals allowed per game.

-They have no one in the top 30 in the league in goals. No one in the top 50 in points.

-Their BEST Statistical goalie is UPL, and he is ranked about 30th in both GAA and Save percentage.

-Right now the last playoff spot in the east is actually projected at 97 points (8th place team in the conference projected pace). Sabres are on pace for 74 points. They are effectively 8-9 points out of a spot now (when considering games in hand) AND would have 7 teams to jump over to get there. They now have to play the rest of the season at a 110 point pace. Even when fully healthy, does this team have a 110 point pace in them for more than half a season?

[Jorcus]

19 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

As a point of comparison I think JT Compher might be reasonable. Compher got 5.1/5 years and he's 28. Mitts will warrant a similar number with term being the question. He may want a short term if he thinks he can get an even bigger payday in a long term deal when he qualifies for UFA status. 

 

Reading back on the Compher contract it was pretty controversial when it was signed. Compher was helped by the fact there were not many free agent centers on the market.   I was going to point out the Andrew Copp contract at 5.625 for 5 years as one of those that does not meet the my arbitrary .25gpg and .5 ppg figures. Time will tell if these were good signings or bad or neither.

The free agent center crop this year is a different story at this point. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/ufa/?ref=trending-pages

There are a lot of alternatives out there at the end of the year unless there is a pile of signings.  

Edited December 14, 2023 by Jorcus

[TheAud]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

With that in mind, what would you like to see the team do with Mittelstadt?  He needs a new contract.

He's an RFA at the end of the season. I'm good with seeing how this year goes and then making a decision on how much value he brings vs. possibly trading him. No need to extend him now unless the team can work out a great deal that values him as an average 3rd line center, which is what I think he probably is. 

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I know what you mean, but I think, at the current moment, Mediocrity is being generous to them.

-In the league they are 7th worst in terms of point percentage

-They are 1 of 2 teams that only has ONE single 2 game win streak and nothing better than that.

-They are bottom 10 in goals scored per game, AND goals allowed per game.

-They have no one in the top 30 in the league in goals. No one in the top 50 in points.

-Their BEST Statistical goalie is UPL, and he is ranked about 30th in both GAA and Save percentage.

-Right now the last playoff spot in the east is actually projected at 97 points (8th place team in the conference projected pace). Sabres are on pace for 74 points. They are effectively 8-9 points out of a spot now (when considering games in hand) AND would have 7 teams to jump over to get there. They now have to play the rest of the season at a 110 point pace. Even when fully healthy, does this team have a 110 point pace in them for more than half a season?

I considered other words instead of mediocrity but perhaps the core group is there and the team as a whole is worse due to lack of depth and goaltending. 

Regardless, I don't disagree. 

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, TheAud said:

He's an RFA at the end of the season. I'm good with seeing how this year goes and then making a decision on how much value he brings vs. possibly trading him. No need to extend him now unless the team can work out a great deal that values him as an average 3rd line center, which is what I think he probably is. 

I value him a bit higher than that.  I’m curious though, could you give an example of a deal that would value him as an average 3rd line center?

[WhenWillItEnd66]

You absolutely cannot give this guy a long term contract. I know he is playing good but lets look at our current long term:

Skinner - Not really underachieving but damn does he look slow! Still should get at least 25 goals

Tage- Ughhhhhh I know he is playing hurt, but he looks slow, and more like the Tage of 2 years ago, not last year

Cozens - Another most likely a bit banged up. A Ton of bad luck but not looking like last year

Dahlin - Still a stud, most likely the best of of the group

Muel - Hmmmmmm a total train wreck. Defensively horrible, turnover machine and a physical wreck that is like glass Joe. He is not physical anymore and becoming another defensive stick checker on a team full of them. 

Not exactly a screaming reason to add another long term contract. This team is built incorrectly. Adding another long term piece on a team that cannot get it done is a bad bad idea. So what we have is not doing it so we keep them around. NOOOOOOOOOO

Just my opinion, could be totally wrong, but what we have does not work.