Sabres Development in 2023-24 - what say you?

[GASabresIUFAN]

If we wait to figure things out until after Thanksgiving it will be too late.  Historically the majority of playoff teams are in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving.  

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/why-nhl-standings-at-u-s-thanksgiving-have-huge-playoff-implications/

Quote

 

From the 2013-14 season to 2017-18, a whopping 62 of 80 of teams in a playoff spot at U.S. Thanksgiving wound up qualifying for a playoff spot.

That works out to 77.5 per cent, which is significant, and it’s also in line with trends during full seasons in the salary cap era, regardless of divisional alignment.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/11/25/its-thanksgiving-time-to-assess-the-nhls-2022-23-playoff-picture/?sh=5fc205c14cd9

Last season in the East the following teams were in a playoff spot (using pts %)

Atlantic - Boston, Tor, Det

Metro - NJD, NYI, Car

WC - TB, Pitt

6/8 (75%) made the playoff, with Pit missing out by losing on the last day of the season. Det faded quickly and the NYR surged to replace them.

PS the West was no different (6/8 or 75%)- Dal, Colo, Wpg, LV, Sea, LA, Calg and STL.  Stl crumbled and Calg fell out late to be replaced by Minn and Edm.

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If we wait to figure things out until after Thanksgiving it will be too late.  Historically the majority of playoff teams are in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving.  

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/why-nhl-standings-at-u-s-thanksgiving-have-huge-playoff-implications/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/11/25/its-thanksgiving-time-to-assess-the-nhls-2022-23-playoff-picture/?sh=5fc205c14cd9

Last season in the East the following teams were in a playoff spot (using pts %)

Atlantic - Boston, Tor, Det

Metro - NJD, NYI, Car

WC - TB, Pitt

6/8 (75%) made the playoff, with Pit missing out by losing on the last day of the season. Det faded quickly and the NYR surged to replace them.

PS the West was no different (6/8 or 75%)- Dal, Colo, Wpg, LV, Sea, LA, Calg and STL.  Stl crumbled and Calg fell out late to be replaced by Minn and Edm.

 

I put ZERO stock in the Thanksgiving stat. The Blues were in last place in the league in January the year they won the cup.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I put ZERO stock in the Thanksgiving stat. The Blues were in last place in the league in January the year they won the cup.  

The stat is about 75% per season.  That means about two teams from each conference that aren't in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving make the playoffs.  Stl and Fla last year were one of those 2 teams.  

So who would you rather be part of the 75% in a playoff spot or one of the other 10 teams fighting for two slots?

Edited November 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The stat is about 75% per season.  That means about two teams from each conference that aren't in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving make the playoffs.  Stl and Fla last year were one of those 2 teams.  

That’s all well and good, but I still don’t put any stock in it. Good (read playoff) teams usually identify themselves early on in the season anyway, so it’s no surprise when they end up making the playoffs. Ironically, I can recall a time in the not so distant past when the Sabres went on a 10 game unbeaten heater, were sitting in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving, and then proceeded to screw the pooch as usual. 

[steveoath]

4 hours ago, Spoonman said:

60% of first 25% of the season

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, Weave said:

All the colors and bold.  I feel like this OP is a snippet from a conspiracy webpage.

I should have never taught him text formatting.

[Spoonman]

22 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Exactly. That was for @Thorny’s benefit! 🤣

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, Norcal said:

I don't think Johnson leaves the lineup again.

8 minutes in the league and he's never going down to the AHL again?  Impressive. 

He will go back to Rochester when Muel is back so he can play and get experience.  Let Bryson ride the pine with Buffalo.  Ryan Johnson likely is the Sabres 7D at this point, but they want him to play and gain experience, not sit in the press box.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The stat is about 75% per season.  That means about two teams from each conference that aren't in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving make the playoffs.  Stl and Fla last year were one of those 2 teams.  

So who would you rather be part of the 75% in a playoff spot or one of the other 10 teams fighting for two slots?

The %’s you have noted actually prove that there is movement after Thanksgiving among bubble teams. The Sabres went into this year as a bubble team. I doubt that will change between now and Thanksgiving and we are likely going to be in the wildcard race for most of the season. 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Archie Lee

[Randall Flagg]

3 hours ago, Hank said:

I make chili in a crock pot a couple times a year. 

My wife is doing this as I type. Basking in the aroma

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

My wife is doing this as I type. Basking in the aroma

Presumably not this?

[thewookie1]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If we wait to figure things out until after Thanksgiving it will be too late.  Historically the majority of playoff teams are in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving.  

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/why-nhl-standings-at-u-s-thanksgiving-have-huge-playoff-implications/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/11/25/its-thanksgiving-time-to-assess-the-nhls-2022-23-playoff-picture/?sh=5fc205c14cd9

Last season in the East the following teams were in a playoff spot (using pts %)

Atlantic - Boston, Tor, Det

Metro - NJD, NYI, Car

WC - TB, Pitt

6/8 (75%) made the playoff, with Pit missing out by losing on the last day of the season. Det faded quickly and the NYR surged to replace them.

PS the West was no different (6/8 or 75%)- Dal, Colo, Wpg, LV, Sea, LA, Calg and STL.  Stl crumbled and Calg fell out late to be replaced by Minn and Edm.

 

To me it honestly depends how far, if we are out at Thanksgiving, are we out. For instance, presently the Sabres are in a 3/4 way tie for a spot but other teams have a game in hand. So at worst, 2/3 pts. If we are within a game’s points; I’m not going to hand wring over being 4th in the division and 9th in the conference. I’ve always seen it as more of a general guide, more than a set in stone 75/80% rule. 
 

If we are 10-9-0 with 20 pts at Thanksgiving, it’ll depend on the standings. Most importantly, we cannot have any losing streaks more than 3 games the whole season. If you play .500 hockey most of the time and add a couple 4 game winning streaks to the bunch you’ll be right around 95 pts. The Sabres need to bring it all together by Game 25, but must at very least have 28 pts after 25 games. From there you need to play better but as long as you are “put together” theoretically you should do better if their disjointed time was still a hair over .500.

[Gatorman0519]

I am not sure this is a playoff team as is.  You all saw how long it took for Mitts and Tage to develop. All those picks you figure 2-4 years to develop.  Unless we get some vets in here that is another couple of years out if we are just going to throw young guys out there. 

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

My wife is doing this as I type. Basking in the aroma

What are the sides?  Cornbread, baked potatoes? My wife makes a vegetarian for others in the family.  I grew up “con carne”.  

[Slack_in_MA]

1 hour ago, sabremike said:

Presumably not this?

I lived in Cincy for a year and developed an affection for the chili. Skyline, Gold Star, and Empress. Great at 2:00 AM.

[Slack_in_MA]

For the record, we are doing pot roast in the crock pot tonight. Must be the thing to do when setting the clocks back.

[Doohicksie]

1 minute ago, Slack_in_MA said:

For the record, we are doing pot roast in the crock pot tonight. Must be the thing to do when setting the clocks back.

I'll be having something Buffalo-ish when I go over to the Bills Backers bar to watch the Bills-Cincy game tonight.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

My wife is doing this as I type. Basking in the aroma

Shorting after you gorge on your beans there will be victims who will be repelled by the toxic aroma coming out of your lower aperture! 🤢

Edited November 5, 2023 by JohnC

[Spoonman]

33 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I'll be having something Buffalo-ish when I go over to the Bills Backers bar to watch the Bills-Cincy game tonight.

I will be there with @Doohickie and the Bills Mafia Fort Worth. 

Predicting @Doohickie gets a slice of pizza, Loganberry, & an A Bomb to start..... 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Spoonman

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, Spoonman said:

I will be there with @Doohickie and the Bills Mafia Fort Worth. 

Predicting @Doohickie gets a slice of pizza, Loganberry, & an A Bomb to start..... 

 

 

On my team you are Spooner. Not Spoonsie, Spoons or Spoonie 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Pimlach

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, Spoonman said:

I will be there with @Doohickie and the Bills Mafia Fort Worth. 

Predicting @Doohickie gets a slice of pizza, Loganberry, & an A Bomb to start..... 

 

What I really had:

Baked Royal sub with onion rings and a brewski.

[PerreaultForever]

15 hours ago, Spoonman said:

I heard Meatballs on interviews saying that the first 1/4 of the season is figuring out what the team is, and making adjustments around that.

There was a lot there but I'm just going to focus on this line because if he did say that it's troubling to me and might explain one of the reasons we continue to fail. 

By the time 1/4 of the season is over you have very often made your grave and are ready to lie in it. You can't waste too many games learning and developing if you truly want to make the playoffs in a league this close and competitive. 

It's also odd to me because it is once again backwards. The coach is supposed to forge the identity of the team and have them play to a certain plan. Yes, you do make some allowances for individual specifics and talents, but as a whole you decide what you want to be and you mold a team to be that. The players should never be the driving force in that. 

Maybe this is why we never get it right and never play the right way. Skating around and scoring goals is fun. Blocking shots. Zone coverage. Taking away passing lanes. etc etc. Yuck, ain't nobody got time for that. 

[Norcal]

The developments  taking place oversees with Sabres prospects  this season have been encouraging so far.

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Sabres have 5 very winnable games in the next 6 (Car, Minn, Wpg, Pit, Bos and Chi).  Win at least 4 of these 6 and I think we’ll all feel much better about contending for the playoffs.

Edited November 6, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres have 5 very winnable games in the next 6 (Car, Minn, Wpg, Pit, Bos and Chi).  Win at least 4 of these 6 and I think we’ll all feel much better about contending for the playoffs.

Hope you are right.

The team Ive been watching has the size, speed and talent to match up with pretty much anyone.

Its also looking like an immature squad that would rather make fancy plays with pucks and toy with opponents than take straight, hard lines and eliminate bodies. The coach seems to get it; he keeps harping on being direct and purposeful. The GM seems to get it; his newest acquisitions (Greenway, Johnson and to a lesser extent Clifton) are showing the way.

Their core, not so much.

I have no doubt the switch is there. Somebody better flip it soon.