The Sabres at 18 games.

[Weave]

3 hours ago, elijah said:

Last year at Christmas time the Penguins and Capitals were in playoff spots and went on to miss the playoffs by 1 and 12 points, while the Islanders and Panthers took their spots who were out by 3 and 9 points

It’s not ideal to be out of a playoff spot 40% of the way into the season, but to say your playoff fate is settled at that point is simply not true

If you can keep within 3-6ish points by then and find momentum with two of your top six forwards returning to the lineup the season is far from over just because you’re out of a spot come Christmas time

Granted I don’t know if I truly believe that’s possible at this point, I just still think it’s far too premature to declare this season a wrap and unless we go on a horrific run over the next month or so they’ll still have until atleast Christmas before I throw away my hopes on the season personally

I’m not sure you’ve corrected me when your response is that 2 out of 16 playoff positions weren’t determined on Christmas day.  My point stands.  By Christmas, playoffs are mostly determined.

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

 

The only issue I have with the above in a big way is Krebs, if he doesn't turn things around and improve.

Still not impressed with Greenway, but Krebs is the only big issue.  As others have said, a lot of things can change from what we are seeing now until then.

[Porous Five Hole]

One note to make:

The Sabres in 2022 after 18 games, the Sabres were 7-11-0, 14 pts  

The Sabres in 2023 after 18 games, the Sabres are 8-9-1, 17 pts 

 

This is not the growth we were hoping for.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

One note to make:

The Sabres in 2022 after 18 games, the Sabres were 7-11-0, 14 pts  

The Sabres in 2023 after 18 games, the Sabres are 8-9-1, 17 pts 

 

This is not the growth we were hoping for.

 

A different set of expectations.  That said, this is where the hopium comes in.  We know that this team can get its act together and play good hockey.  There are significant worries, like the forward depth and terrible PP, but we almost overcame the lack of D depth last year, the injuries to the D and the terrible PK.  These seasons so far are almost mirror images of each other

Last season - Injuries to the D.  This season - injuries to the forwards

Last season - Terrible PK and a good PP.  This season Terrible PP and good PK

Last season - Poor D depth.  This season - poor forward depth

Last season and this season - 3 headed goalie monster with injuries to Comrie.

[Porous Five Hole]

The Sabres need scoring, veteran leadership, and people who know what it takes to win a cup.

We all know who the Sabres need to bring in. And that is Phil Kessel. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I've seen a couple of posts from various posters today that all 3 of our goaltenders have been good this season and/or that Levi is coming along since his injury.   UPL has been solid and has had some very good nights (although rebound control is still a problem), but Comrie and Levi have not been good and Levi hasn't been good overall since his return.

Levi has had 8 starts this season.  His GA is 3.66 and save % .879.  These are not good numbers.  The Sabres are 3-4-1 in those starts.  Don't be fooled by the record.  He has had only 2 starts this season where he saved more than 90% of the shots against. According to Natural Stat Trick, Levi's save % on HDC is 62nd in the NHL.  In his last 4, he has a save % of .857, .943, .722, and .867 allowing 4 or more goals in 3 of the 4 games.  Despite Levi's goaltending, the Sabres are 2-1-1 in those 4 games. 

Comrie has played four games and posted a 90% or better save % in just one of the four.  The Sabres are 0-3 in Comrie's last 3 starts and his return from injury game was his worst of the year with an .833 save%.  

In summation, UPL has been surprisingly good, Comrie slightly below mediocre and Levi bad.  Overall the Sabres' .909 save % 5 on 5 in below the NHL average (.919) and our overall save % (.893) is also below average in the NHL (.897).   

By the way, our save %  5 on 5 is actually slightly worse than last year (.909 vs .911), but the overall % is slightly better (.893 vs .890).  

The biggest change is our GA (3.21 ytd vs 3.62 last season) is more a function of improved defence instead of improved goaltending. Shots against have fallen by 4 from 32.5 to 28.3 and HDA have fallen from 8.43 per game to 7.79. The league's shooting % is 10.3%.  A drop in 4 shots a game would essentially lower our GA by the .4 we are seeing this season (3.62 down to 3.21).

Edited November 24, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN