The Sabres at 18 games.

[mjd1001]

12 games in now...team is back to .500.  Plus 1 on a goal differential.  Losing record at home, winning record on the road. Some things have changed since last year, a lot hasn't.

Thompson is back on track. Skinner has been what you expect/need from him all season so far. Mittlestadt is the good version from the end of last season and is taking it another step forward.  Greenway only has 2 goals (on pace for only about 12 or so) but he seems a much better player than he was when here last year. Peterka seems to have taken that step forward also.  Thats the good that many of us see.

The bad?  Dahlin.  Mostly good games, putting up points, a bad game here and there.  He's playing like a top 20 D-man in the league but many of us thought he would take another step this year and play like a top 5 D-man. Haven't quite seen that yet.  Power, some good games, some bad games. Samuelsson just can't seem to stay healthy.

Up front Cozens isn't playing awful, but he hasn't taken another step forward. Many games he hasn't been noticable on the ice.  Okposo really really looks done.  Your 4th line will not win you a cup by itself, but it can be the difference in some one goal games and he really is making what could be a decent 4th line into a bad one. His forechecking isn't good anymore and he is a step behind most loose pucks on the boards.  Krebs has taken a step back again.

So far I don't think this team needs drastic changes to get into solid playoff contention.  Cozens, Dahlin, and Tuch need to take a 'half step'  to find last years pace, Samuelsson needs to get back and healthy, and they have to find a way to get Okposo some time off the ice and someone younger/quicker into that spot.  Krebs, we can have some patience with him, but if he doesn't show something in the next month he will be next after Okposo.

[Doohicksie]

27 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

have to find a way to get Okposo some time off the ice

He'll go on IR as soon as he eclipses 1000 games played.

[Thorner]

On 11/2/2023 at 1:09 PM, Thorny said:

As arguably his biggest supporter I’d like to see a little bit more from Dahlin, even though he’s been good. T-7th in points for D is the minimum I’d expect, frankly, and I’d like to see that plus minus bump up too from -1, thought realistically that should come along with the team 

He leads the team in assists, but the bar is Norris nomination ie a top 3 league D. He’s that good. He’s pacing for 73 points just like last year, I think he has more in him for a ceiling.

He now has 11 points to Quinn Hughes 23.

Good for 15th in D scoring. Along with a plus 1 rating (Hughes +18)

We need more from a guy set to become an 11 million dollar man 

[LabattBlue]

47 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He now has 11 points to Quinn Hughes 23.

Good for 15th in D scoring. Along with a plus 1 rating (Hughes +18)

We need more from a guy set to become an 11 million dollar man 

Agree 100%.  

[mjd1001]

Ok, down 4-0 and not really interested in the game, what is different this year (so far) compared to last year and how do you 'fix' it.

-Thompson is slightly less productive per game.

-Tuch is way off.  He missed some time in training camp and a few games in the regular season, he is struggling and giving you less production.

-Cozens.  less production than last year and much less impact than he had last year.

-Dahlin. Hes still good, but he had stretches last year where he was playing like a top 5 D-man in the league. This year he is playinjg like a top 25 d-man.

-You got goals last year from Olofsson, this year you are getting no production.

-Okposo is slower and late to a lot of plays. Not a huge difference but that alone makes the 4th line go from decent last year to not so decent this year.

 

Beyond that, we can nit-pick with who is good in the D-zone and other subtle items...that do matter overall, but I think the above will give you 80+% of why this team is underperforming expectations and their pace last year.  

How to fix the above? no idea. I know the calls for a coaching change are getting louder, but I'm not sure how much of the 'above' issues that would fix.

 

[Thorner]

I don’t understand what’s up with Dahlin. Tage cutting back on scoring a bit isn’t that surprising because he’s not that mainstay proven as a points guy yet anyways. With improved D he’s been pretty good, and his contract is well in line and actually still a very good one. I get Dahlin isn’t making 11 right now but we know that’s what “he is” and that means he’s supposed to be a top top guy. He was that last year. He looks like an average #1 D. He should be far and away our mvp - that’s his allotted roll on the team and he signed a contract reflective of that 

They won’t fix anything until they stop treating winning as a free gift for trying to develop a dynasty 

there’s so much hubris present in that stance. A franchise that hasn’t been able to win for a decade thinks they don’t have to sell out everything in their power to do it 

a little humility wouldn’t be misplaced 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

19th in D scoring for Dahlin

need waaaaaay more 

[LGR4GM]

55 minutes ago, Thorny said:

19th in D scoring for Dahlin

need waaaaaay more 

17th in D points and the difference between 17th and 9th is one point. 17th to 6th is 3 points. 

I get it, you're pissed. You're in every thread losing your ***** but I think it's getting a little over blown. They haven't been good enough, I'd like Adams to make a trade.

The meltdown around here right now though has reached a fever pitch. Posters are borderline hysteric. There's something like 6 threads about the team sucking,  including a now locked thread calling out anyone who isn't in a state of panic a "bootlicker". 

Have it though. I'm just not interested in the outrage culture. 

https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

 

[Thorner]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

17th in D points and the difference between 17th and 9th is one point. 17th to 6th is 3 points. 

I get it, you're pissed. You're in every thread losing your ***** but I think it's getting a little over blown. They haven't been good enough, I'd like Adams to make a trade.

The meltdown around here right now though has reached a fever pitch. Posters are borderline hysteric. There's something like 6 threads about the team sucking,  including a now locked thread calling out anyone who isn't in a state of panic a "bootlicker". 

Have it though. I'm just not interested in the outrage culture. 

https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

 

I’ve been talking about needing more from him for a while now - it’s a continuing thread of thought. I have literally been his biggest backer around here, especially during the Krueger years - it’s not disingenuous 

3 points is 27% of his total output. 6th also isn’t close to good enough. Dahlin’s production is a means to an end: the end being a good team. These games right now when we’ve needed him most, he hasn’t been up to snuff. These are points you don’t get back: my point is that his game needs to turn immediately if possible to stop that loss of points moving forward. These little things all matter if the margin for playoffs is thin and you truly hold the team to that standard, this season. 

And yes, if all you want to do is whine about posters reaching a breaking point after so long in the desert, you should log off rather than telling everyone how above it you are 

I couldn’t give 2 sh*ts if you think it’s overblown. It’s my prerogative. It’s how I ACTUALLY feel, it’s frustration - it’s not a narrative. All of my posts on the matter have been filled with actual data and actual explanations for what I think is wrong - it has not at all been mindless yelling and calling for people’s heads. If you noticed (and I know you didn’t, because we’ve frequently had this conversation before about how you don’t actually read the posts in full), I’m the guy saying I wouldn’t even fire KA if we miss the playoffs this season. 4 years missed and I wouldn’t fire him. I’m also the guy saying in multiple threads that it’s imminently salvageable, still, THIS season. But I’m hysterical.

the meltdown is merely reflective of the franchise. I’ve been a reasoned poster here for 8 years. Am I prone to hysterics? Obviously not relative to you I am not, but relative to the board? I don’t think so. It’s my opinion. I’m choosing to explain how I feel and what I think this teams needs to change to figure it out. There’s no hindsight or Cherry picking - all of these contentions are things I’ve been talking about for YEARS.

i am not answerable for the threads you feel are misplaced and hysterical. I didn’t call anyone a bootlicker. Just quote my posts specifically beyond the Dahlin one if you want to argue about it, I’ll be happy to, if it doesn’t force you to engage too much in “outrage culture”

- - - 

tl;dr:

you feel “seen” because I’m probably right 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Thorny

[#freejame]

Fine, they aren’t bootlickers they’re apologists. 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, #freejame said:

Fine, they aren’t bootlickers they’re apologists. 

It’s a defence mechanism.

Just like my venting 

[Thorner]

Dahlin today 

[GASabresIUFAN]

So where are the Sbares 18 games (22%) into the season?

The Sabres sit in 13th place in the East (by points %).  Their -6 differential is 4th worst in the conference.  The team is 7th worst in the conference in total GA at 57 and 4th worst in GF with 51.  The PK is vastly improved sitting 8th in the NHL at 85.3% (9th in net PK @ 88.2%).  The PP is a dismal 27th at 11.5%  

Goaltending - Despite the bad conference GA, in the NHL as a whole the GA is much improved at 3.17 GA/GP vs 3.62 last season.  UPL has been the best of the 3 headed goalie monster and rookie Levi has been the worst.  

The Defense - Johnson and Johnson have helped to improve the unit over last season, but KA is still riding his big 3 into the ground.  Joki is finally showing some offense and Clifton has added some needed physicality but his in-zone play has been a disappointment.  Power for all his minutes, hasn't been that good imho.

The forwards - Injuries, depth issues, and some brutal play is the story here.  Quinn has been out all season.  Tuch hasn't really been healthy all season.  TNT is now out for at least a month and as we saw with Casey a few years ago, wrist injuries are brutal to return from.  I'm not expecting much for TNT for the rest of the year.  DC, has also been injured, and his play since his return hasn't been very good, to say the least. With TNT out, the Sabres desperately need to see him step up.  Benson, now also back from injury, has had some bright spots and is looking better the last few games.  Given our depth and injury issues, odds favor his staying with the club this season. Krebs, VO and Jost have been awful, although VO seems a little better now that he is getting a regular shift again.  Skinner is scoring, but is back to playing poorly defensively.  Z and KO are done as NHLers imho.  I wish we could move on from both, but that won't happen until the offseason.  The caveat here is KA trading KO to a contender at the deadline to give him a shot at a Cup.  The bright spots have been Greenway, Mitts, and JJP.  They have been the only 3 forwards that have come to play each night.

This forward mess has basically limited the Sabres to two competitive forward lines which has made the team easier to defend and therefore less productive.  The team's 2.83 GF/GP is 25th in the NHL.  Interestingly, 5 on 5 the Sabres remain very competitive.  The team's 39 goals 5 on 5 is tied for 7th in the NHL (but really 10th when you look at games played at 2.16 GF/GP 5 on 5).  While 2.16 isn't bad, it's still down from the 2.40 GF/GP 5 on 5 (197 goals 5 on 5) last season. Simply put the PP is the biggest issue with the offense right now.  

Another issue with the teams is penalties for and against. Last year the Sabres only had 278 penalties the entire season resulting in only 618 penalty minutes.  (3rd least in the NHL).  The Sabres drew 322 penalties for a net of +44 top in the NHL.  This season is going in the opposite direction.  We are already -11 (3rd worst in the NHL).  We have drawn 69 penalties (22nd in the NHL) and been called 80 times (7th most).  While some have been ticky-tack calls, the majority have come from poor defensive play by all the skaters.  Greenway has six minors. Cozens, Tuch, Mitts, Krebs, Dahlin, Mule, and Clifton have 5 each, while Benson, JJP, and KO have 4 each.  That's 8 forwards with 38 minors.  While some of these may come from physical play (see Greenway), most seem a reflection of forwards not executing in the defensive zone.      

Bottom line: The Sabres are a young, talented team that isn't executing as a group.  Injuries are only a partial excuse.  Until they fix the PP and execute better on offense from the entire lineup this is a 500 team at best. 

Time to send Levi down.  Time to call up Kulich and or Rosen to see if they can add a spark with some bottom 6 scoring.  Fixing the PP is the greatest need, but I'm not sure the coaching staff is up to the challenge.  I'd start with watching the NJ PP and see if we can borrow some concepts.  I'd also like KA to acquire another center to bridge TNT's injury and then solidify the 4th line.  Adding another physical player for forward depth wouldn't hurt either if we are serious about making the playoffs.  Bryson, Jost, and VO should be traded or waived.  I'd remain a little patient with Krebs, but it's running out quickly.  I'm not expecting KA to make any moves however until the deadline when it will already be too late.

Sorry for the long post, but I needed to get a few things off my chest.

Edited November 21, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[elijah]

I keep personally banging the drum to wait until around Christmas time to make a full assessment as to what the team is, it’s a long season and things change. Team’s round out to full form at different paces, some sprint out of the gate and die before the stretch, some come out slow and find their momentum at the stretch.

That being said, we’re starting to get awfully close to Christmas time without finding or even having a glimpse of said momentum 

[Thorner]

Honestly? We won’t know till the playoffs lines are drawn 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Honestly? We won’t know till the playoffs lines are drawn 

I'm not sure what you mean.  The Sabres are on a 77 pt pace.  To make the playoffs, the team will need to earn at least 95 points this season, or 78 points in the next 64 games.  That's a record of 36-22-6 for a team that has yet to win more than 2 in a row and just came off a 3 game-losing streak.  Add to the fact that the 4 teams that made the playoffs from our division last year are all playing good hockey, the Sabres, without a major win streak, are now fighting for the last wild card spot and it's not even Thanksgiving.   

[Weave]

18 minutes ago, elijah said:

I keep personally banging the drum to wait until around Christmas time to make a full assessment as to what the team is, it’s a long season and things change. Team’s round out to full form at different paces, some sprint out of the gate and die before the stretch, some come out slow and find their momentum at the stretch.

That being said, we’re starting to get awfully close to Christmas time without finding or even having a glimpse of said momentum 

By Christmas a teams’ playoff fate is mostly settled, so sure, you can readily prognosticate a full assessment at that time.  However, the time to react to save a season is mostly over by then.

[Thorner]

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm not sure what you mean.  The Sabres are on a 77 pt pace.  To make the playoffs, the team will need to earn at least 95 points this season, or 78 points in the next 64 games.  That's a record of 36-22-6 for a team that has yet to win more than 2 in a row and just came off a 3 game-losing streak.  Add to the fact that the 4 teams that made the playoffs from our division last year are all playing good hockey, the Sabres, without a major win streak, are now fighting for the last wild card spot and it's not even Thanksgiving.   

I just mean that I can’t pass judgment on it (as if my judgment matters one iota) until I see the result. If they are kinda disappointing all year but go on a run in the last few weeks and make it: that’s a success for me. I’ve been pretty consistent that playoffs are THE line 

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I just mean that I can’t pass judgment on it (as if my judgment matters one iota) until I see the result. If they are kinda disappointing all year but go on a run in the last few weeks and make it: that’s a success for me. I’ve been pretty consistent that playoffs are THE line 

Management has to be a judgment much earlier than that.  The fans, given the attendance at home games, have already passed judgment as well.  This team, as it is currently playing, isn't close to a playoff-caliber team.  If KA wants to correct course he is going to have to stop being patient and start being more proactive.  

[Thorner]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Management has to be a judgment much earlier than that.  The fans, given the attendance at home games, have already passed judgment as well.  This team, as it is currently playing, isn't close to a playoff-caliber team.  If KA wants to correct course he is going to have to stop being patient and start being more proactive.  

I agree with you but he isn’t going to do that. There’s what we would do, and the timeline for success we believe to be fair, and then the other side of the equation is KA’s plan and the timeline he has been granted from on high 

I’ll evaluate based on my criteria ie We need to make the playoffs this season and within that context I agree, the time to be proactive is now

But I’m beginning to think KA’s plan is exceptionally rigid in that the now won’t ever be prioritized before the long term. I think the job is his as long as we wants it and maintains the budgetary constraints Pegula wants.

The attendance has been the attendance and it hasn’t made any difference in the urgency we’ve seen so I believe the proof is in the pudding 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Thorny

[elijah]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

By Christmas a teams’ playoff fate is mostly settled, so sure, you can readily prognosticate a full assessment at that time.  However, the time to react to save a season is mostly over by then.

Last year at Christmas time the Penguins and Capitals were in playoff spots and went on to miss the playoffs by 1 and 12 points, while the Islanders and Panthers took their spots who were out by 3 and 9 points

It’s not ideal to be out of a playoff spot 40% of the way into the season, but to say your playoff fate is settled at that point is simply not true

If you can keep within 3-6ish points by then and find momentum with two of your top six forwards returning to the lineup the season is far from over just because you’re out of a spot come Christmas time

Granted I don’t know if I truly believe that’s possible at this point, I just still think it’s far too premature to declare this season a wrap and unless we go on a horrific run over the next month or so they’ll still have until atleast Christmas before I throw away my hopes on the season personally

[Believer]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Another issue with the teams is penalties for and against. Last year the Sabres only had 278 penalties the entire season resulting in only 618 penalty minutes.  (3rd least in the NHL).  The Sabres drew 322 penalties for a net of +44 top in the NHL.  This season is going in the opposite direction.  We are already -11 (3rd worst in the NHL).  We have drawn 69 penalties (22nd in the NHL) and been called 80 times (7th most).  While some have been ticky-tack calls, the majority have come from poor defensive play by all the skaters.  Greenway has six minors. Cozens, Tuch, Mitts, Krebs, Dahlin, Mule, and Clifton have 5 each, while Benson, JJP, and KO have 4 each.  That's 8 forwards with 38 minors.  While some of these may come from physical play (see Greenway), most seem a reflection of forwards not executing in the defensive zone.      

Terrific analysis… Thanks!

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I agree with you but he isn’t going to do that. There’s what we would do, and the timeline for success we believe to be fair, and then the other side of the equation is KA’s plan and the timeline he has been granted from on high 

I’ll evaluate based on my criteria ie We need to make the playoffs this season and within that context I agree, the time to be proactive is now

But I’m beginning to think KA’s plan is exceptionally rigid in that the now won’t ever be prioritized before the long term. I think the job is his as long as we wants it and maintains the budgetary constraints Pegula wants.

The attendance has been the attendance and it hasn’t made any difference in the urgency we’ve seen so I believe the proof is in the pudding 

some food for thought for those who expect KA feels any pressure to act 

- - - 

Candidly, as I always try to be, personal disenfranchisement with the fanbase as well as…the franchise certainly makes it more difficult to follow along 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Management has to be a judgment much earlier than that.  The fans, given the attendance at home games, have already passed judgment as well.  This team, as it is currently playing, isn't close to a playoff-caliber team.  If KA wants to correct course he is going to have to stop being patient and start being more proactive.  

The attendance is up from last year.  STs are up from last year.  Both by several 1,000.  IF they weren't following in the Canes footsteps making it tough for visiting fans that travel well to buy tix, attendance would look a lot better.  

Both Moe-ray-all and Boston had last season early year weeknight attendance in large part because they wouldn't sell tix to people they expected were Hab and B fans repectively.  

Personally expect attendance to pick up pretty significantly once the Bills season is over.  If they're even close to a playoff spot that'll be pretty much a given.  But, go ahead and deem the fans to have spoken en masse less than 1/4 of the way while still in the heart of Bills season.

[thewookie1]

29 minutes ago, Thorny said:

some food for thought for those who expect KA feels any pressure to act 

- - - 

Candidly, as I always try to be, personal disenfranchisement with the fanbase as well as…the franchise certainly makes it more difficult to follow along 

To me it would depend a ton on what some of those players look like at years end and if we can scrape out a playoff spot.  
 

For instance if UPL keeps playing about average and Levi settles in; then goalie wise we’d look stable. 

Has Jokiharju gone the whole year looking solid? What is his contract?

The forwards are theoretically better in regards to skill and speed but I’m unsure how we’d get much of any use out of Rosen playing on line 4