Jost, Krebs and the Bottom 6 Problem!

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

37

Same

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

I’m 54 years old 

So not generational then just tiresome. My ex wife loved them. Probably why I don't. 🙂

 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

This is all perfectly reasonable.  I don’t really disagree.

My points were were mostly just weighing in on whether the Sabres could afford to pay Mitts long term.  They can, but you could definitely be right that it’s not the ideal roster mix.

One other thing I’ll say regarding this is that the Sabres may view Cozens as someone who can do some of this shutdown C type role in the future.  I think he has the physicality and mindset to do it.  He definitely isn’t there yet though.  How much of that is a conscious game plan decision to play a transition offense game as opposed to a defense focused game, I’m not sure.

Well ya, that's fair, but if Mitts becomes your 2C and Cozens your shutdown then Cozens becomes the overpaid guy in that equation. If the cap keeps going up a lot it's fine but who knows. For all we know covid send us into another lockdown next year. Cozens also has to show that he's that guy which at the moment he isn't. He's kind of in between those 2 roles so maybe the coaches have to decide what he is and stick with it. 

So idk but after this Philly game I see that 4th line of theirs giving us fits and I'm kind of set on the idea that that's what we need on the bottom end. How the third line shakes out over time is still up in the air. We will see, but Mitts is likely going to make this a difficult decision for KA. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

20 years ago I never trusted anyone under 20.

20 years later I never trust anyone under 40.

EDIT TO ADD:

(insert that winkie thingie here)

Edited November 2, 2023 by Sabres Fan in NS
more goodly ..

[GASabresIUFAN]

I’ve updated the thread title to reflect better what is going on the ice.

Let’s face it; the Sabres have bigger problems in the bottom six then just Krebs and Jost.

Our top 5 forwards have 10 or more pts each (Skins, Tnt, Mitts, Tuch and JJP).  DC has 7 in 12 games.  Greenway has 6 in 14 games but adds significant contributions elsewhere.  After that nothing.  KO 3 pts (0 goals), Z 2 pts both goals, Jost 2 pts, Krebs 1 pt and VO 1 pt. VO has been a healthy scratch.  

Injuries and KA’s rookie roster experiments haven’t really helped much either. Collectively the kids have played 12 games and collected 2g 2a and Biro and Benson are out with injuries.  DG’s usage of Savoie tonight (3:55 of toi) was a clear indication to me that winning is now the priority.  Last year DG would have skated Savoie 12+ to see what the kid has. Now the Sabres’ really can’t afford rookie mistakes.  It’s time to send Benson and Savoie to Jrs and move on.  

On paper forward depth was the Sabres strength to start the season, but it looks right now like VO, Z and KO are done as NHL players.   Krebs needs to go back to the minors to find his game.  I’m now firmly in the camp of KA trying to find a forward to help this team.  Maybe Quinn comes back and gives the team a spark, but we need more depth production.  

[LGR4GM]

I agree on Benson and Savoie. I'd give Savoie a couple games with some better toi and then back to Jr's. Rosen and Kulich are just down the road if needed. 

They need to move on from olofsson either via trade or waivers. 

[steveoath]

No one is realistically going to take Olofsson though are they? 

[Scottysabres]

7 minutes ago, steveoath said:

No one is realistically going to take Olofsson though are they? 

There is always a team willing to take a look on a goal scorer. Might be a tad bit early yet in to the season for one of those teams to step forward, but I expect Olofsson to be gone by the end of 2023. Adams may have to eat a bit of salary in order to sweeten the pot, and it's only for this season. But I can't see Olofsson constantly sitting until the deadline.

Maybe Adams uses him in a package to acquire a player, maybe he just gets a pick, hard to gage where Adams falls on this since he keeps info so tight to the vest.

As for Krebs and Jost, I'm not as nearly keen on Krebs as I was last season. Of course, this is based on the "what have you done for me lately" mindset, but as of right now, I have 0 issues with Krebs being included or stand alone in a trade.

This organization has a plethora of young skilled forwards in its pipeline. Someone posted about a Lawson Crouse type deal, ummmm, yes please. This team needs a bolstering of size. Or, conversely, it could use a bolstering of puck control, because what I witnessed last night at the game in person, was a display of "blind passing, bad passing and passing in to your teammates skates" that boggled not just my brain, but at the end of the 2nd there, the entire arena gasped in disbelief at just how bad they are at passing. Maybe target a player with size to protect the puck and has decent passing skills, it couldn't hurt none.....imho.

[bg17]

4 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

This team needs a bolstering of size.

They have good size up and down the lineup. Not an issue. 

[Believer]

On 11/1/2023 at 6:20 PM, TRIP65 said:

Savoie Krebs Rousek would be pretty cool.

Granato had the same thought… Started this trio as the 3rd line last night… 

Savoie only skated 3:55 the whole game… Must not have liked his two-way play in this tight game.

[Zamboni]

13 minutes ago, bg17 said:

They have good size up and down the lineup. Not an issue. 

Exactly.

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/teams-physical-stats/2023-2024

[Archie Lee]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ve updated the thread title to reflect better what is going on the ice.

Let’s face it; the Sabres have bigger problems in the bottom six then just Krebs and Jost.

Our top 5 forwards have 10 or more pts each (Skins, Tnt, Mitts, Tuch and JJP).  DC has 7 in 12 games.  Greenway has 6 in 14 games but adds significant contributions elsewhere.  After that nothing.  KO 3 pts (0 goals), Z 2 pts both goals, Jost 2 pts, Krebs 1 pt and VO 1 pt. VO has been a healthy scratch.  

Injuries and KA’s rookie roster experiments haven’t really helped much either. Collectively the kids have played 12 games and collected 2g 2a and Biro and Benson are out with injuries.  DG’s usage of Savoie tonight (3:55 of toi) was a clear indication to me that winning is now the priority.  Last year DG would have skated Savoie 12+ to see what the kid has. Now the Sabres’ really can’t afford rookie mistakes.  It’s time to send Benson and Savoie to Jrs and move on.  

On paper forward depth was the Sabres strength to start the season, but it looks right now like VO, Z and KO are done as NHL players.   Krebs needs to go back to the minors to find his game.  I’m now firmly in the camp of KA trying to find a forward to help this team.  Maybe Quinn comes back and gives the team a spark, but we need more depth production.  

I recognize it was Savoie's 1st game, still it seemed odd to only play him 3:55.  Krebs played just over 6 minutes. 

Last night was maybe the best indicator that Granato doesn't trust Krebs at this point as the underlying numbers matched the eye-test:  when Krebs was on the ice the puck was in the Wild's end.  It seemed weird to me that Granato put a lot of trust in him last season and now, even in a game where all indicators were that he was playing well, and where there were clearly guys getting more ice-time than their legs could manage, Krebs was stapled to the bench in the 3rd period. 

There is no fairness in pro-sports. A player gets the opportunity he gets and he either makes the most of it or he doesn't. Still, a little strange to me that we invested in Krebs as we have and do not give him extended time with any of our higher-end offensive players. 

I'm not down on Okposo and Girgensons.  Last night was rough.  I don't think Okposo should be on PK much if at all.  But, if we are going to dress one or two players a game that Granato doesn't trust, then it is only going to further expose the weaknesses in Okposo's game.  I don't think it is a sustainable model.  We can look to the Tuch and Quinn injuries and say we will be fine when they are healthy, but the reality of an 82 game NHL season is that there will likely be others injured by then.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I didn’t get a chance to watch last night’s game.  @freester and I were enjoying the Georgia demolition of Ole Miss, but we kept an eye on the score.  The Sabres again didn’t play a 4th line on the back half of a back to back. Instead they opted for a 7th D.  This is a very clear indication that we lack forward depth and the 0-4 score underscores that none of the depth steps up when the top guns have an off night.  

At this point, I doubt there is much KA can do.  The trade market is probably non-existent until the end of the year.  He and DG have to decide what to do with Olofsson.  It’s time to either play him and try see if there is anyway to get offense out of him or waive him and move on.  It’s also time to bench Krebs for a few games to get his head back on straight.  I’d also be recalling Kulich and Rosen to see if they can provide a spark.  I know Rochester is also depleted, but that can’t be helped.  I might also see about giving a vet like Mersch a callup.  He is a savvy player, who because of the veteran rules in the AHL has only played 6 games.  Might as give him a shot as well. Desperate times deserve desperate measures. 

[steveoath]

What’s going on with Krebs? Read that Granato said there was “more to it” when asked if it was a reset for Krebs. Obviously loads of twitter/X speculation. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow. 

[Mango]

On 11/1/2023 at 10:55 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Well ya, that's fair, but if Mitts becomes your 2C and Cozens your shutdown then Cozens becomes the overpaid guy in that equation. If the cap keeps going up a lot it's fine but who knows. For all we know covid send us into another lockdown next year. Cozens also has to show that he's that guy which at the moment he isn't. He's kind of in between those 2 roles so maybe the coaches have to decide what he is and stick with it. 

So idk but after this Philly game I see that 4th line of theirs giving us fits and I'm kind of set on the idea that that's what we need on the bottom end. How the third line shakes out over time is still up in the air. We will see, but Mitts is likely going to make this a difficult decision for KA. 

Gun to my head, pick between Cozens and Mitts, I’m taking Mitts and moving forward. I wouldn’t lose a wink of sleep. It isn’t like Mitts is 30 years old. He’s 24 to Cozens 22. He’s playing like the player we hope Cozens becomes.  

We need some help at C down the roster but Cozens future in the top 6 is on the wing unless those two guys stop progressing and he takes a huge leap. 

[Crusader1969]

I think they have 2 choices to fix the 3rd line. 
Go for it this year:

Crouse -Cozens - Kane

wait till next year:

Rosen - Cozens - Kulich

either way - better than what they have now 

 

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think they have 2 choices to fix the 3rd line. 
Go for it this year:

Crouse -Cozens - Kane

wait till next year:

Rosen - Cozens - Kulich

either way - better than what they have now 

 

If kevyn pulled off Crouse cozens Kane I'd publicly renounce all doubt 

[Norcal]

I have a feeling Krebs is going to take a "mental health" break.

The need for a vet fourth line guy was obvious before the season and now here we are.

Okposo..oof the good vibes are ending, again.

Zemgus..he's honestly more interested in what's going on at home than hockey nowadays. Terry just threw his guy an extra years worth of dough to ride into the sunset with. 

I still like Josts game, he could use a few more minutes to round it out.

Goal V...ugh. They have helped him drive his value into the ground. 

Cozens, if we are including him here since Mitts has arisen, needs to slow his game down and get back to that White Horse attitude.

He's young and still a work in progress regardless of last seasons amazingness.

He'll be fine.

[steveoath]

1 minute ago, Norcal said:

Okposo..oof the good vibes are ending, again.

 

[Archie Lee]

First, it is still way too early in the year to panic about anything.  The Sabres are a strong week or two away from being 3rd in the conference.  Hanging around true .500 (not NHL .500) for 40-60 games keeps you in the race. Until we have a truly bad stretch of 3 losses or more in a row, there just isn't anything to panic about. I realize we all wanted a surge like what New Jersey had last year. It might still happen, but it is more likely that we are going to be haning around a WC spot for most of the year and that it will come down to the last few games. 

We can fret about the bottom 6 production, but the reality is that our bottom 6 has produced goals at only slightly below the average for Eastern Conference teams.  Most teams get the vast majority of their goals from their top 6.  We are no different.  The one thing we don't have at the moment is a player who is having a great offensive season.  Look at the top teams in the East right now and most have one or two players who are having strong offensive years (Pastrnak, Panarin, Larkin, Reinhart, Hughes, Bratt, Kucherov, Point). Our top scorer is Skinner who has 13 points in 15 games.  Those are good Skinner numbers, but it means we are not getting what we expect to be getting from Thompson and others.  Again though, it is early.

We are on pace to allow 40+ fewer goals than a year ago.  That is a positive.

I stand by earlier comments; spreading out offensive production can result in diluting it. Greenway has been one of our best players this season. Playing him consistently with either Thompson or Mittelstadt, however, might be serving to limit the offensive production of two of our top scorers while depriving the bottom 6 of a player who can thrive in that role. We need to get Cozens and Olofsson going.  Olofsson worked well with Thompson in the past (That 70's line, along with Asplund) but does not seem to work with Skinner.  How about:

1. Skinner/Mitts/Tuch
2. Cozens/Thompson/Olofsson
3. Greenway/Krebs/Peterka
4. Girgs/Jost/Okposo

What we have seemed to be doing all year is take the 3-4 guys who are struggling the most and put them together on the 3rd line and hope that they can find something.  They don't and then the 3rd period comes along and we are rolling 3 lines including an exhausted Girgs and Okposo. The recipe hasn't worked.  Time to give Cozens and Olofsson and Krebs an extended stretch with players who compliment their skills.

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

 stand by earlier comments; spreading out offensive production can result in diluting it. Greenway has been one of our best players this season. Playing him consistently with either Thompson or Mittelstadt, however, might be serving to limit the offensive production of two of our top scorers while depriving the bottom 6 of a player who can thrive in that role. We need to get Cozens and Olofsson going.  Olofsson worked well with Thompson in the past (That 70's line, along with Asplund) but does not seem to work with Skinner.  How about:

1. Skinner/Mitts/Tuch
2. Cozens/Thompson/Olofsson
3. Greenway/Krebs/Peterka
4. Girgs/Jost/Okposo

What we have seemed to be doing all year is take the 3-4 guys who are struggling the most and put them together on the 3rd line and hope that they can find something.  They don't and then the 3rd period comes along and we are rolling 3 lines including an exhausted Girgs and Okposo. The recipe hasn't worked.  Time to give Cozens and Olofsson and Krebs an extended stretch with players who compliment their skills.

I absolutely hate, hate, anyone idea that involves giving a floater like Olofsson anything. They need to cut or waive him, not reward him and ruin another line to "get him going".

This boards obsession with giving Oloffson more chances is mind boggling but so is the fact adams seems unwilling to let guys he likes go. 

Edited November 12, 2023 by LGR4GM
Spelling

[Randall Flagg]

46 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

First, it is still way too early in the year to panic about anything.  The Sabres are a strong week or two away from being 3rd in the conference.  Hanging around true .500 (not NHL .500) for 40-60 games keeps you in the race. Until we have a truly bad stretch of 3 losses or more in a row, there just isn't anything to panic about. I realize we all wanted a surge like what New Jersey had last year. It might still happen, but it is more likely that we are going to be haning around a WC spot for most of the year and that it will come down to the last few games. 

We can fret about the bottom 6 production, but the reality is that our bottom 6 has produced goals at only slightly below the average for Eastern Conference teams.  Most teams get the vast majority of their goals from their top 6.  We are no different.  The one thing we don't have at the moment is a player who is having a great offensive season.  Look at the top teams in the East right now and most have one or two players who are having strong offensive years (Pastrnak, Panarin, Larkin, Reinhart, Hughes, Bratt, Kucherov, Point). Our top scorer is Skinner who has 13 points in 15 games.  Those are good Skinner numbers, but it means we are not getting what we expect to be getting from Thompson and others.  Again though, it is early.

We are on pace to allow 40+ fewer goals than a year ago.  That is a positive.

I stand by earlier comments; spreading out offensive production can result in diluting it. Greenway has been one of our best players this season. Playing him consistently with either Thompson or Mittelstadt, however, might be serving to limit the offensive production of two of our top scorers while depriving the bottom 6 of a player who can thrive in that role. We need to get Cozens and Olofsson going.  Olofsson worked well with Thompson in the past (That 70's line, along with Asplund) but does not seem to work with Skinner.  How about:

1. Skinner/Mitts/Tuch
2. Cozens/Thompson/Olofsson
3. Greenway/Krebs/Peterka
4. Girgs/Jost/Okposo

What we have seemed to be doing all year is take the 3-4 guys who are struggling the most and put them together on the 3rd line and hope that they can find something.  They don't and then the 3rd period comes along and we are rolling 3 lines including an exhausted Girgs and Okposo. The recipe hasn't worked.  Time to give Cozens and Olofsson and Krebs an extended stretch with players who compliment their skills.

Being bottom 3 in the league in xGF per game might make some worry that maintaining that .500 pace with volatile young goalies will be difficult. 

[Norcal]

1 hour ago, steveoath said:

 

This will be his last stand imo.

Bad timing for my post but doesn't change the fact that a faction of the fan base is done with him.

I can see him rotating out a few games this season. I'm on record having said that already in the offseason so I stand by it.

[Archie Lee]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I absolutely hate, hate, anyone idea that involves giving a floater like Olofsson anything. They need to cut or waive him, not reward him and ruin another line to "get him going".

This boards obsession with giving Oloffson more chances is mind boggling but so is the fact adams seems unwilling to let guys he likes go. 

Fair enough.  My post is in the context of:  if we haven't waived Olofsson to this point then we probably aren't going to and, therefore, we are better to try and find a way to get him scoring than to put him in positions where we are working against his strengths. 

I would not call Olofsson a floater.  He is a one-dimensional player who, at best, is a neutral on-ice presence when he is not producing offensively.  He didn't score 17 goals at 5v5 last year by floating.

[Archie Lee]

19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Being bottom 3 in the league in xGF per game might make some worry that maintaining that .500 pace with volatile young goalies will be difficult. 

Yes, if things that are not going well continue to not go well then it could be a rough year.