DOES ADAMS GET A GOALIE NOW?!

[Archie Lee]

On 10/29/2023 at 10:24 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

The guys who make a living doing this stuff had him at -1.74 goals saved above expected. That's a loss by goalie.

I enjoy advanced stats. Using them for single game evaluations can be misleading though. Goals saved above expected really does not work as a single game stat. To begin with, you can’t give up 1.26 goals in a game. If you face a Jack Hughes breakaway the first shot of a game and are scored on you will be negative on goals saves above expected. Doesn’t really tell you much other than you got scored on by Jack Hughes. Also, UPL faced 22 shots against NJ in only 28 minutes. Vanicek saw 27 shots over 60. Workload matters. What was the team corsi over the 28 minutes UPL played against NJ? 
 

I was listening to the new Expected Buffalo podcast last night. They are not UPL fans. They glossed over Levi’s poor start, largely blaming it on how the Sabres managed his workload (I agree that they overused Levi to start the year, but can also acknowledge he has been below average in performance through his four games). Then they proceeded to pick apart individual goals that UPL gave up while labeling people who defend him as “UPL-lovers”. I don’t see a lot of people blindly loving or defending UPL. I mostly see that some of us want to put in context that he is a young goalie who for most of his NHL career has not enjoyed the luxury of a stable defensive environment in front of him. At the start of the season the Sabres were the league’s youngest team by average age at 25.5 (per capfriendly). UPL is a year younger than our average age, playing a position where it is universally understood that development takes longer. Some of us just think there is a good goalie in there and want to give the kid a break. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Archie Lee

[Hank]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

I enjoy advanced stats. Using them for single game evaluations can be misleading though. Goals saved above expected really does not work as a single game stat. To begin with, you can’t give up 1.26 goals in a game. If you face a Jack Hughes breakaway the first shot of a game and are scored on you will be negative on goals saves above expected. Doesn’t really tell you much other than you got scored on by Jack Hughes. Also, UPL faced 22 shots against NJ in only 28 minutes. Vanicek saw 27 shots over 60. Workload matters. What was the team corsi over the 28 minutes UPL played against NJ? 
 

I was listening to the new Expected Buffalo podcast last night. They are not UPL fans. They glossed over Levi’s poor start, largely blaming it on how the Sabres managed his workload (I agree that they overused Levi to start the year, but can also acknowledge he has been below average in performance through his four games). Then they proceeded to pick apart individual goals that UPL gave up while labeling people who defend him as “UPL-lovers”. I don’t see a lot of people blindly loving or defending UPL. I mostly see that some of us want to put in context that he is a young goalie who for most of his NHL career has not enjoyed the luxury of a stable defensive environment in front of him. At the start of the season the Sabres were the league’s youngest team by average age at 25.5 (per capfriendly). UPL is a year younger than our average age, playing a position where it is universally understood that development takes longer. Some of us just think there is a good goalie in there and want to give the kid a break. 

Well said. 

[Drag0nDan]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

I enjoy advanced stats. Using them for single game evaluations can be misleading though. Goals saved above expected really does not work as a single game stat. To begin with, you can’t give up 1.26 goals in a game. If you face a Jack Hughes breakaway the first shot of a game and are scored on you will be negative on goals saves above expected. Doesn’t really tell you much other than you got scored on by Jack Hughes. Also, UPL faced 22 shots against NJ in only 28 minutes. Vanicek saw 27 shots over 60. Workload matters. What was the team corsi over the 28 minutes UPL played against NJ? 
 

I was listening to the new Expected Buffalo podcast last night. They are not UPL fans. They glossed over Levi’s poor start, largely blaming it on how the Sabres managed his workload (I agree that they overused Levi to start the year, but can also acknowledge he has been below average in performance through his four games). Then they proceeded to pick apart individual goals that UPL gave up while labeling people who defend him as “UPL-lovers”. I don’t see a lot of people blindly loving or defending UPL. I mostly see that some of us want to put in context that he is a young goalie who for most of his NHL career has not enjoyed the luxury of a stable defensive environment in front of him. At the start of the season the Sabres were the league’s youngest team by average age at 25.5 (per capfriendly). UPL is a year younger than our average age, playing a position where it is universally understood that development takes longer. Some of us just think there is a good goalie in there and want to give the kid a break. 

 

Just watching UPL the last couple games:

He's still huge.  Cover's a lot of space just being big and i think it helps a lot on PP's when they have you moving side to side 

Rebound control has improved - seems to be kicking them off to the walls much better than before

Puck playing - still a work in progress.  Improvement here helps the defensemen get the puck moving out of the zone more effectively

 

Levi on the other hand has struggled with both rebounds and puck playing.  He's quick as hell and definitely can make some of the harder saves.  He did get hung out to dry to start the year i felt as we were giving up a lot of slot chances and that's usually on forwards and back-checking.  All the line jumbling in preseason seemed to harm some of the cohesion to start the year, and some players like thompson and tuch started really slow. 

[JoeSchmoe]

3 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I enjoy advanced stats. Using them for single game evaluations can be misleading though. Goals saved above expected really does not work as a single game stat. To begin with, you can’t give up 1.26 goals in a game. If you face a Jack Hughes breakaway the first shot of a game and are scored on you will be negative on goals saves above expected. Doesn’t really tell you much other than you got scored on by Jack Hughes. Also, UPL faced 22 shots against NJ in only 28 minutes. Vanicek saw 27 shots over 60. Workload matters. What was the team corsi over the 28 minutes UPL played against NJ? 
 

I was listening to the new Expected Buffalo podcast last night. They are not UPL fans. They glossed over Levi’s poor start, largely blaming it on how the Sabres managed his workload (I agree that they overused Levi to start the year, but can also acknowledge he has been below average in performance through his four games). Then they proceeded to pick apart individual goals that UPL gave up while labeling people who defend him as “UPL-lovers”. I don’t see a lot of people blindly loving or defending UPL. I mostly see that some of us want to put in context that he is a young goalie who for most of his NHL career has not enjoyed the luxury of a stable defensive environment in front of him. At the start of the season the Sabres were the league’s youngest team by average age at 25.5 (per capfriendly). UPL is a year younger than our average age, playing a position where it is universally understood that development takes longer. Some of us just think there is a good goalie in there and want to give the kid a break. 

Don't forget he has those bad seasons in Roch too. 

There seems to be a bit of a honeymoon after his shutout, but it'll take a MUCH larger sample size for me to come around on him. Most importantly, I don't want to jeopardize another season with that sample with him playing in the NHL. I'd risk losing him to waivers if Adams can find someone better.

Edited October 31, 2023 by JoeSchmoe

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Don't forget he has those bad seasons in Roch too. 

There seems to be a bit of a honeymoon after his shutout, but it'll take a MUCH larger sample size for me to come around on him. Most importantly, I don't want to jeopardize another season with that sample with him playing in the NHL. I'd risk losing him to waivers if Adams can find someone better.

If Adams wasn't willing to put him on waivers after his looking like hot death at the end of last season and in the preseason, there is no way he's going to risk losing him to waivers after pitching a shutout against one of the best teams in the league.

@Weave was right.  The 3 headed monster is here to stay.  😟

[Weave]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

If Adams wasn't willing to put him on waivers after his looking like hot death at the end of last season and in the preseason, there is no way he's going to risk losing him to waivers after pitching a shutout against one of the best teams in the league.

@Weave was right.  The 3 headed monster is here to stay.  😟

Halfway through the free agency period it seemed obvious to me that we were going to have a 3 way competition, and thus far noone has separated themselves from the pack to make a decision to cut one loose obvious.

[Crusader1969]

UPL named  one of the 4 “Pepsi goalie challenge” top goalies of the week with .915 save % 

minimum 3 games played to be nominated 

have to give him credit when it’s due 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Crusader1969

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

If Adams wasn't willing to put him on waivers after his looking like hot death at the end of last season and in the preseason, there is no way he's going to risk losing him to waivers after pitching a shutout against one of the best teams in the league.

@Weave was right.  The 3 headed monster is here to stay.  😟

To provide some context:

- Prior to be becoming an NHL goalie last season, UPL had consistently been a ranked top-10-goalie prospect or an honourable mention top-goalie prospect for several years on many prospect lists

- In UPL's first 13 NHL games split over the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons, he had a .913 save %. 

- Last year, through January he played 20 games and had a .901 save %.   He was the NHL rookie of the month for January 2023  

- It's worth noting that UPL's save % through his first 33 NHL games is objectively better than Levi's to this point in Levi's career (not in any way a shot against Levi, who I am excited about)

- UPL's Feb and March last year were very bad (though he did end the season with 2 wins and a .911 save % over his last 3 appearances)

 

What team waives a young goalie who has been considered a top prospect for years, because they had two bad months in their rookie NHL season?

Thankfully, not the Sabres.

 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Archie Lee

[Mango]

A crazy thought I had watching the Raiders last night. 

The Sabres goalie situation is waaaaay better than the QB/Coach situation in Vegas. 

[jad1]

25 minutes ago, Mango said:

A crazy thought I had watching the Raiders last night. 

The Sabres goalie situation is waaaaay better than the QB/Coach situation in Vegas. 

The Sabres could trade for Carter Hutton and name him starter, and their goalie situation would still be better than the Raiders QB/Coach situation.

[Porous Five Hole]

2 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

UPL named  one of the 4 “Pepsi goalie challenge” top goalies of the week with .915 save % 

minimum 3 games played to be nominated 

have to give him credit when it’s due 

 

Well that’s confusing because he’s only played two games all year 🤔

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Well that’s confusing because he’s only played two games all year 🤔

Take it up with Pepsi! 😂

[JoeSchmoe]

5 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

What team waives a young goalie who has been considered a top prospect for years, because they had two bad months in their rookie NHL season?

Thankfully, not the Sabres.

Based on many years of underwhelming results since he's entered the pro his status as a top prospect has long past.

He may absolutely still develop into a good goalie one day, but I'd rather him figure it out in a league where he won't potentially cost us another season of playoff hockey if he doesn't.

6 hours ago, Weave said:

Halfway through the free agency period it seemed obvious to me that we were going to have a 3 way competition, and thus far noone has separated themselves from the pack to make a decision to cut one loose obvious.

Agreed. It sucks. I'm just hoping the Comrie and Levi injuries lights a fire under Adams that should have been lit much earlier.

[dudacek]

54 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Based on many years of underwhelming results since he's entered the pro his status as a top prospect has long past.

He may absolutely still develop into a good goalie one day, but I'd rather him figure it out in a league where he won't potentially cost us another season of playoff hockey if he doesn't.

Agreed. It sucks. I'm just hoping the Comrie and Levi injuries lights a fire under Adams that should have been lit much earlier.

Not interested in debating Old Man Pete’s merits, especially with someone who is so obviously a UPL truther.

But to the bold I have to ask: how do you explain the Sabres being 19/12/4 over the past calendar year with him in net? 35 games is not a small sample size.

Especially for people who buried UPL two years ago for his 35-game year in Rochester.

Edited November 1, 2023 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Also, with Comrie getting injured again, and Tokarski not healthy either, we sure are fortunate Adams kept 3 goalies and didn’t lose anybody to waivers, aren’t we?

😘

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Also, with Comrie getting injured again, and Tokarski not healthy either, we sure are fortunate Adams kept 3 goalies and didn’t lose anybody to waivers, aren’t we?

😘

Well, personally am hoping Adams ends up able to take a victory lap over his handling of the goalies.  But 3 previous years of data say that it's still significantly premature for him to do so.

[DarthEbriate]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not interested in debating Old Man Pete’s merits, especially with someone who is so obviously a UPL truther.

But to the bold I have to ask: how do you explain the Sabres being 19/12/4 over the past calendar year with him in net? 35 games is not a small sample size.

Especially for people who buried UPL two years ago for his 35-game year in Rochester.

I'm not in the bury UPL category. I don't trust him, either! He is my friend.

But my response to that is Sabres' Goals For in which Luukkonen was the goalie of record.

Last season: 2,6,5,4,6,9,1,4,3,6,4,5,6,2,5,1,3,6,5,2,1,2,4,3,7,1,2,1,4,0,5,6

This season: 6,4,4

Anytime you get 4+ goals of support you should win. That's 21 should wins right there.

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I'm not in the bury UPL category. I don't trust him, either! He is my friend.

But my response to that is Sabres' Goals For in which Luukkonen was the goalie of record.

Last season: 2,6,5,4,6,9,1,4,3,6,4,5,6,2,5,1,3,6,5,2,1,2,4,3,7,1,2,1,4,0,5,6

This season: 6,4,4

Anytime you get 4+ goals of support you should win. That's 21 should wins right there.

Well if people think something about UPL’s body language encouraged the Sabres to get outshot 18-4 by New Jersey, I guess you could also postulate that something about his body language encouraged them to score lots of goals in most of his starts.

Look, UPL lets in too many goals and has for most of his 49 NHL games. But the certitude some fans have that what he was in September of 2022 is all he ever was or will be drives me nuts.

I don’t have high hopes for the kid, but I hope he stuffs it in these “fan’s” faces in much the same way Quinn and Mittelstadt have.

That amount of hatred dumped on any Buffalo Sabre who just seems to show up and work hard doesn’t seem very “Buffalo” to me.

Edited November 1, 2023 by dudacek

[Pimlach]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Well if people think something about UPL’s body language encouraged the Sabres to get outshot 18-4 by New Jersey, I guess you could also postulate that something about his body language encouraged them to score lots of goals in most of his starts.

Look, UPL lets in too many goals and has for most of his 49 NHL games. But the certitude some fans have that what he was in September of 2022 is all he ever was or will be drives me nuts.

I don’t have high hopes for the kid, but I hope he stuffs it in these “fan’s” faces in much the same way Quinn and Mittelstadt have.

That amount of hatred dumped on any Buffalo Sabre who just seems to show up and work hard doesn’t seem very “Buffalo” to me.

and Tage, and Dahlin, ... 

Heck, people moaned about signing Erik Johnson for one year at $3.25M.   This guy is a professional hockey player if there ever was one.  He is exactly what we needed.  I will bet that Mule, Power, Dahlin, Joker and Clifton are very happy to listening to anything this guy has to say about playing defense in the NHL.   

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Not interested in debating Old Man Pete’s merits, especially with someone who is so obviously a UPL truther.

But to the bold I have to ask: how do you explain the Sabres being 19/12/4 over the past calendar year with him in net? 35 games is not a small sample size.

Especially for people who buried UPL two years ago for his 35-game year in Rochester.

I’m one of those UPL nonbelievers who saw him come up short too many times in his tenure as a Rochester resident.  The Sabres outscored their problems last year and I will rehash that UPL’s career NHL save percentage is .898. 
 

Can he get hot? Sure, he has proven he can string together a few starts of competent goaltending…just like almost any other goalie.
I’m happy with the 2-0 start, but I don’t expect him to be reliable over a season.  I hope I am wrong. 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

UPL named  one of the 4 “Pepsi goalie challenge” top goalies of the week with .915 save % 

minimum 3 games played to be nominated 

have to give him credit when it’s due 

 

Those 3 games...

Colorado: 23svs 23sh 1.0sv%

New Jersey: 18svs 21sh .857sv%

Ottawa: 34svs 38sh .895sv%

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

people moaned about signing Erik Johnson for one year at $3.25M.

Who complained?  I thought this was a great signing.  This team had needed a Teppo type figure in the dressing room and on the ice for years and KA finally delivered.  
 

I know Clifton is off to a rough start, but I live that signing as well.

[Zamboni]

The resident complainer called EJ “garbage” when he was signed in July. Yes I know I know consider the source 😂

 

I think EJ is a solid signing. He’s being praised by all Sabres players that talk about him.

[North Buffalo]

Goalies are such weird head cases... they can get hot for a season eg the Hamburgler and Binnington and then it can go all away or come and go... Ive given up trying to figure them out short of them being the next coming of Hasek and no one has duplicated his game.

[mjd1001]

43 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Goalies are such weird head cases... they can get hot for a season eg the Hamburgler and Binnington and then it can go all away or come and go... Ive given up trying to figure them out short of them being the next coming of Hasek and no one has duplicated his game.

I'm kind of there with you.

If the Sabres had even a slightly better goaltender, would they be a better team? Of course.

But we see the guys they have on their team are capable of times of putting in good games.

Maybe Comrie is better than he was last year...he was trying to play through an injury. Maybe UPL is the guy who just is going to need a lot of time to develop in someone who has the talent to be a good goaltender but he comes on a little bit later.

Lots of maybes there but unless you went out and paid top dollar for Superstar goalie... And who would that be?...Any other goaltender you bring in you have no guarantee that they would actually be that much better than what you have here.

Edited November 1, 2023 by mjd1001