Sabres Prospect Updates 23-24

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, French Collection said:

I see Novikov got a goal and 2 assists tonight for the Amerks. Mule had better watch out.

Novikov is going to be better than Samuelsson long before samuelsson's contract ends. 

[French Collection]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Novikov is going to be better than Samuelsson long before samuelsson's contract ends. 

I am interested to see where he could insert himself into this lineup. He and Komarov could be a future 3rd pair, twin towers.

[bob_sauve28]

9 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

After watching Kulich tonight, I really think he has a chance to play for the Sabres next season.   Which probably means the end of Krebs, I  would think , as a sabre   
 

Krebs is improving, imo. 

[LGR4GM]

Novikov quietly leading the Amerks in +/- while also dropping 21pts in 58games. He's 3rd in points for defenders all while being 20 (won't be 21 until end of July) and this is his first season in NA. He is not our top prospect, but he is one of the most intriguing. 

oh and for the "we aren't big enough crowd" or the "we aren't physical enough crowd", Novikov is 6'4" 198lbs and has a mean side. 

[TheAud]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

oh and for the "we aren't big enough crowd" or the "we aren't physical enough crowd", Novikov is 6'4" 198lbs and has a mean side. 

To be fair, he has a nice side too. 

[Flashsabre]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Novikov quietly leading the Amerks in +/- while also dropping 21pts in 58games. He's 3rd in points for defenders all while being 20 (won't be 21 until end of July) and this is his first season in NA. He is not our top prospect, but he is one of the most intriguing. 

oh and for the "we aren't big enough crowd" or the "we aren't physical enough crowd", Novikov is 6'4" 198lbs and has a mean side. 

Komarov is the best dman in the Q and is coming off a Memorial Cup.

Novikov, Komarov and Strabek are a better group of D prospects than people are giving them credit for.

[bob_sauve28]

2 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Komarov is the best dman in the Q and is coming off a Memorial Cup.

Novikov, Komarov and Strabek are a better group of D prospects than people are giving them credit for.

And we already have a decent group of d-men on the top team as it is. With Bryson emerging as a good player, Mule coming back and all the top picks, we are looking ok on the back end for now and hopefully in the future 

[DarthEbriate]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Novikov quietly leading the Amerks in +/- while also dropping 21pts in 58games. He's 3rd in points for defenders all while being 20 (won't be 21 until end of July) and this is his first season in NA. He is not our top prospect, but he is one of the most intriguing. 

oh and for the "we aren't big enough crowd" or the "we aren't physical enough crowd", Novikov is 6'4" 198lbs and has a mean side. 

I do think he makes his Sabres debut next season (a few games), just as reward and to get a look at him vs. NHL speed so he can start dreaming about the next level. Plus, they'll have to make a decision on Byram's potential cost vs. ELC Novikov and a Johnson bridge for 2025-26. The good thing is, he's currently blocked and there's no need to rush him. Novikov has to cut through the blast doors himself to make it to the bigs.

Note: Alternately, he's the key piece going out to get an established top 4 RHD, but that goes against the GM's youth-maturing-together plan.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Komarov is the best dman in the Q and is coming off a Memorial Cup.

Novikov, Komarov and Strabek are a better group of D prospects than people are giving them credit for.

Strbak is interesting, needs another couple years in college for sure. 

Komarov is really interesting. QMJHL isn't great defensively and compared to the other CHL leagues Komarov didn't blow the doors off for a defender but as someone with 1 more year of Q eligibility and already tops in the league, I think he is another guy that in 2-3 years might be really interesting for the Sabres. He's another reason you don't sign guys like Samuelsson to 7 year deals, you sign them to 5 year deals because they can be replaced most likely and if not, you just sign them again. 

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

I do think he makes his Sabres debut next season (a few games), just as reward and to get a look at him vs. NHL speed so he can start dreaming about the next level. Plus, they'll have to make a decision on Byram's potential cost vs. ELC Novikov and a Johnson bridge for 2025-26. The good thing is, he's currently blocked and there's no need to rush him. Novikov has to cut through the blast doors himself to make it to the bigs.

Note: Alternately, he's the key piece going out to get an established top 4 RHD, but that goes against the GM's youth-maturing-together plan.

They made their top 4 D trade already. This team is going to roll out Power, Byram, Dahlin and Muel next year as the top 4 and think nothing of it, even though Muel is a 5/6 and will get injured. 

[DarthEbriate]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

They made their top 4 D trade already. This team is going to roll out Power, Byram, Dahlin and Muel next year as the top 4 and think nothing of it, even though Muel is a 5/6 and will get injured. 

Totally agree on the bolded. I think they said: "Playoff experienced top-4 D? Check! Handedness, schmandedness." with Byram.

The only thing that gives me pause on the top 4 is this current lineup of Power-Dahlin. Jokiharju isn't going to break the bank on a bridge and if Byram-Joker gels the final 6 games, I think we easily see Muel start next season with Clifton (where they both belong, albeit as a pricey 3rd pair). But that's for summer conversations!

[tom webster]

14 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Totally agree on the bolded. I think they said: "Playoff experienced top-4 D? Check! Handedness, schmandedness." with Byram.

The only thing that gives me pause on the top 4 is this current lineup of Power-Dahlin. Jokiharju isn't going to break the bank on a bridge and if Byram-Joker gels the final 6 games, I think we easily see Muel start next season with Clifton (where they both belong, albeit as a pricey 3rd pair). But that's for summer conversations!

I know LGRM doesn’t think much of Murl but there is an article today on the Athletic that has him ranked very high on list of shut down defenseman.

While you can debate the merits of both opinions and credentials of both people, what is indisputable is that with all the wisdom analytics has added to the conversation, there is still no absolute statistical program that is one hundred percent accurate in projecting future success or even quantify current performance except for one, wins and losses.

[LGR4GM]

Because I love you all, so so much, 

Komarov (2022) had a 1.15ppg this year putting him first in the Q. That would make him 4th in the WHL behind Mateychuk 1.44ppg (2022), Cagnoni 1.38ppg (2023), and Sward 1.23ppg (2022). That would make him 4th in the OHL behind Parekh 1.45ppg (2024), Brzustewicz 1.37ppg (2023), and Dionicio 1.22ppg (2023). 

 

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I know LGRM doesn’t think much of Murl but there is an article today on the Athletic that has him ranked very high on list of shut down defenseman.

While you can debate the merits of both opinions and credentials of both people, what is indisputable is that with all the wisdom analytics has added to the conversation, there is still no absolute statistical program that is one hundred percent accurate in projecting future success or even quantify current performance except for one, wins and losses.

wins and losses do not quantify future success or current performance 100%. I have seen total garbage teams beat the best teams in the league. Wins/Losses don't quantify current performance of individual players that's for sure and they certainly don't tell you about future success of a player. That is why NO ONE uses them to quantify if a player is good or bad except sometimes with goalies. 

 

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I know LGRM doesn’t think much of Murl but there is an article today on the Athletic that has him ranked very high on list of shut down defenseman.

While you can debate the merits of both opinions and credentials of both people, what is indisputable is that with all the wisdom analytics has added to the conversation, there is still no absolute statistical program that is one hundred percent accurate in projecting future success or even quantify current performance except for one, wins and losses.

Mattias Samuelsson has absolutely no offense to his game. He is next to useless once you get into the neutral zone and certainly an afterthought in the offensive zone. He may shutdown plays at a good clip, although I do have some questions based on that model, but without showing us the average and then telling us what standard deviation away from that Samuelsson is, idk how to take the stats other than he might be good defensively but not leaps and bounds better than the league. That would be what my eye test says, he is solid defensively, above average, and can be trusted to deal with opposing top lines. I want him no where near the offensive zone though, all he can do is pass the puck to his partner or send it down low, there is almost no other skill or manipulation to that side of his game. I actually think quite a bit of Muel's defensive game, but the rest I don't. It is that duality that has me down on the guy overall, coupled with his complete inability to ever be healthy for more than 60% of a season. 

[Flashsabre]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Because I love you all, so so much, 

Komarov (2022) had a 1.15ppg this year putting him first in the Q. That would make him 4th in the WHL behind Mateychuk 1.44ppg (2022), Cagnoni 1.38ppg (2023), and Sward 1.23ppg (2022). That would make him 4th in the OHL behind Parekh 1.45ppg (2024), Brzustewicz 1.37ppg (2023), and Dionicio 1.22ppg (2023). 

 

The best part of that is Komarov’s offensive production is not his calling card. It is just a nice bonus on top of his physical compete and defensive prowess something a lot of those other dmen lack.

Edited April 4 by Flashsabre

[tom webster]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Mattias Samuelsson has absolutely no offense to his game. He is next to useless once you get into the neutral zone and certainly an afterthought in the offensive zone. He may shutdown plays at a good clip, although I do have some questions based on that model, but without showing us the average and then telling us what standard deviation away from that Samuelsson is, idk how to take the stats other than he might be good defensively but not leaps and bounds better than the league. That would be what my eye test says, he is solid defensively, above average, and can be trusted to deal with opposing top lines. I want him no where near the offensive zone though, all he can do is pass the puck to his partner or send it down low, there is almost no other skill or manipulation to that side of his game. I actually think quite a bit of Muel's defensive game, but the rest I don't. It is that duality that has me down on the guy overall, coupled with his complete inability to ever be healthy for more than 60% of a season. 

You can’t argue the durability question and that is mentioned in article as well. My point is just that knowledgeable people can have polar opposite opinions about athletes and in my opinion the variance is most striking in hockey and the growth of analytics has done little to change that.

As for the contract, my opinion all along has been with the cap eventually approaching $100M, Sammy’s contract will never be overly cumbersome.

[Pimlach]

18 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Savoie has to be the number one prospect in the system now after this year.. right?

Depend on what #1 means?   Upside, or most likely to emerge next year?   He is probably number one in juniors, sure.  I like that he is solidly built, a forward  can overcome height with the right body type, strength, and mindset.  

Wahlberg is now in the AHL, plus there are several other Amerks to consider (Kulich, Rosen, the two Russians, )  

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Novikov is going to be better than Samuelsson long before samuelsson's contract ends. 

If it happens it is a good problem to have.  

[dudacek]

14 hours ago, French Collection said:

I see Novikov got a goal and 2 assists tonight for the Amerks. Mule had better watch out.

 

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Novikov is going to be better than Samuelsson long before samuelsson's contract ends. 

 

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I know LGRM doesn’t think much of Murl but there is an article today on the Athletic that has him ranked very high on list of shut down defenseman.

While you can debate the merits of both opinions and credentials of both people, what is indisputable is that with all the wisdom analytics has added to the conversation, there is still no absolute statistical program that is one hundred percent accurate in projecting future success or even quantify current performance except for one, wins and losses.

For context, the article ranks Samuelsson 15th in the entire league.

His peers include Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, Brady Skjei and Brayden McNabb

Mattias Samuelsson’s promising defensive profile explains why the Sabres signed him to a seven-year, $4.285 million AAV extension at the start of last season. The problem? He can’t seem to stay healthy. The hulking 24-year-old defenseman was limited to 41 games this season and 55 the year before. Durability, not talent, is the concern with Samuelsson and his contract right now.

The model weighs heavily for tough matchups and top 4 ice time and is only about shot suppression during ES play.

The author (Harman Dayal) says:

This is, of course, only an analytical perspective. The numbers obviously can’t capture everything, especially for defense. That means this exercise isn’t so much a definitive ranking, but rather a conversation starter. You can look at the initial list and then apply your own eye test, context and knowledge — it’s all about how you interpret the data. There will be plenty of quality shutdown defenders who don’t land on this list.

[K-9]

Speaking of D prospects, Ryan Johnson is looking good with the Amerks, too. Especially his skating, which is already elite, imo.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Mattias Samuelsson has absolutely no offense to his game. He is next to useless once you get into the neutral zone and certainly an afterthought in the offensive zone. He may shutdown plays at a good clip, although I do have some questions based on that model, but without showing us the average and then telling us what standard deviation away from that Samuelsson is, idk how to take the stats other than he might be good defensively but not leaps and bounds better than the league. That would be what my eye test says, he is solid defensively, above average, and can be trusted to deal with opposing top lines. I want him no where near the offensive zone though, all he can do is pass the puck to his partner or send it down low, there is almost no other skill or manipulation to that side of his game. I actually think quite a bit of Muel's defensive game, but the rest I don't. It is that duality that has me down on the guy overall, coupled with his complete inability to ever be healthy for more than 60% of a season. 

I hope Samuelsson has a great career AND that Novikov turns out to be even better.  If the argument for Novikov being better than Samuelsson long-term is, at least in part, that Novikov has more offense in his game, then I would just point out that in his age 20-21 AHL seasons Samuelsson put up 28 points in 45 games. That's not an argument for Samuelsson having more offense in his game than you are crediting him for.  Rather, I just have some doubt that the offense we are seeing from Novikov this year will translate at the NHL level. 

[dudacek]

Haven't really watched Novikov this year so it's hard for me to compare.

But Samuelsson was a noticeable stud at the AHL level: offensively fine and defensively dominant.

If Novikov is near that level as a rookie, I'd be pleasantly surprised and pretty excited.

[Buffalonill]

Yeah don't trade Savoie he will  haunt buffalo 

[Flashsabre]

Moose Jaw just swept Brandon tonight. Savoie with a goal and assist.

8 points in 4 games, keeping that 2 points a game average up.

[GoPuckYourself]

Novikov is going to be special.