Updated betting odds/team over under points

[mjd1001]

How one online betting site sees things:

https://www.covers.com/nhl/team-point-totals-odds-bets

 

I looked specifically at the division and the east. As far as where they see teams finishing with over/under points:

Toronto 106.5, Boston 101.5, Florida 99.5, Tampa 93.5, Ottawa 92.5, Buffalo 92.5, Detroit 85.5, Montreal 70.5

So they have Buffalo tied for 5th/6th in the division with Ottawa.

 

In the Metro division they see:  Carolina 109.5, New Jersey 105.5, Rangers 103.5, Pittsburgh 97.5, Islanders 92.5,   Washington 83.5,  Philly 75.5, Columbus 72.5.

 

So if the Oddsmakers have it correct, Toronto, Boston, Florida, Carolina, NJ, and the Rangers are in as division top 3 teams....Pittsburgh and Tampa get the wild cards.  

Ottawa, Buffalo, and the Islanders are then all tied for fighting for the 9th spot but out of the playoffs.

Edited October 5, 2023 by mjd1001

[Getpucksdeep]

I've been spending too much time thinking about these odds after the no-brainer 77.5 last year.  93 is only one win better. Seems like we got this no?

[LabattBlue]

Better odds than what I got a month ago…

94 is the over/under on my bet

[matter2003]

I'd take the over and will go bet some money on it. Wait what??  

How the hell are both sides of the over/under minus money?  F that...why the hell would I bet 115 dollars to win 100?

Edited October 5, 2023 by matter2003

[Zamboni]

I would put money on Sabres getting 96 or more points. But I don’t know the first thing about online betting 😎

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Getpucksdeep said:

I've been spending too much time thinking about these odds after the no-brainer 77.5 last year.  93 is only one win better. Seems like we got this no?

Same, same.  Haven’t pulled the trigger yet.

Also, anyone think the Sabres can get 100 points?  That’s +220.  Bet $100, get $220 profit if you win.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Curt

[Curt]

44 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I'd take the over and will go bet some money on it. Wait what??  

How the hell are both sides of the over/under minus money?  F that...why the hell would I bet 115 dollars to win 100?

Hmm, don’t bet much, do you?  It’s minus on both sides because the bookmaker takes a cut.  That’s how it is for all sports betting.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Curt

[matter2003]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Hmm, don’t bet much, do you?  It’s minus on both sides because the bookmaker takes a cut.  That’s how it is for all sports betting.

Uh, no it isn't...if I were to foolishly go and bet the Jags to beat the Bills it's +200, meaning if I bet $100 I win $200...

It seems that spread bets or over/under bets are equal on both sides tho?  Is that what you mean?

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Uh, no it isn't...if I were to foolishly go and bet the Jags to beat the Bills it's +200, meaning if I bet $100 I win $200...

It seems that spread bets or over/under bets are equal on both sides tho?  Is that what you mean?

Well yeah, because the Bills are favored by a fair amount, so the bookmakers cut gets kind of buried in the difference.

Yeah, I’m taking about the spread.  Spreads and over/unders are often equal prices on both sides, but not always.

For example, just look at this other NFL game.  The spread is very close, so you can see the moneyline prices are both negative in this case as well.  It’s because of the book’s cut.  It’s always like that.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Curt

[Taro T]

54 minutes ago, Curt said:

Same, same.  Haven’t pulled the trigger yet.

Also, anyone think the Sabres can get 100 points?  That’s +220.  Bet $100, get $220 profit if you win.

Would say that 92.5 is a no brainer very easy money and the 100 point line is pretty tempting too.

Personally am expecting 103 but expect there's a lot better chance of them hitting 111 than only 97.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, Getpucksdeep said:

I've been spending too much time thinking about these odds after the no-brainer 77.5 last year.  93 is only one win better. Seems like we got this no?

Don't forget betting odds are not predictions. They reflect what casinos think bettors are thinking.

[Getpucksdeep]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Would say that 92.5 is a no brainer very easy money and the 100 point line is pretty tempting too.

Personally am expecting 103 but expect there's a lot better chance of them hitting 111 than only 97.

Thank you this is where I am.

More from dahlin more from powers more from cozens more from JJP more from middlestat.  Tuch tage skinner neutral to down.  Levi wild card.  All the rookies upside.  

[Getpucksdeep]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

I'd take the over and will go bet some money on it. Wait what??  

How the hell are both sides of the over/under minus money?  F that...why the hell would I bet 115 dollars to win 100?

These bets are so much better than a single game.  82 events to normalize . Last year the over for Sabres was -115.  Everyone bet it so they changed it to -125.  I put a lot of money down on over for me (all relative) and it paid!  So yeah I'm not a game by game gambler but these futures are different.  

[...]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

How one online betting site sees things:

https://www.covers.com/nhl/team-point-totals-odds-bets

 

I looked specifically at the division and the east. As far as where they see teams finishing with over/under points:

Toronto 106.5, Boston 101.5, Florida 99.5, Tampa 93.5, Ottawa 92.5, Buffalo 92.5, Detroit 85.5, Montreal 70.5

So they have Buffalo tied for 5th/6th in the division with Ottawa.

 

In the Metro division they see:  Carolina 109.5, New Jersey 105.5, Rangers 103.5, Pittsburgh 97.5, Islanders 92.5,   Washington 83.5,  Philly 75.5, Columbus 72.5.

 

So if the Oddsmakers have it correct, Toronto, Boston, Florida, Carolina, NJ, and the Rangers are in as division top 3 teams....Pittsburgh and Tampa get the wild cards.  

Ottawa, Buffalo, and the Islanders are then all tied for fighting for the 9th spot but out of the playoffs.

What is the record of success/accuracy for these odds makers?

[jad1]

Just now, ... said:

What is the record of success/accuracy for these odds makers?

They're really not trying to be accurate.  They're trying to get like 52% of the money bet on one side and 48% bet on the other.   

 

[Getpucksdeep]

4 minutes ago, ... said:

What is the record of success/accuracy for these odds makers?

I have no idea but I feel like most people on the board know more than the odds makers.  They lean on algorithms and machines.  And I'm guessing in Vegas with emotions "my guys!" that pays them just fine.  But like here, Boston, 101.5...that's one hell of a tempting under.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Would say that 92.5 is a no brainer very easy money and the 100 point line is pretty tempting too.

Personally am expecting 103 but expect there's a lot better chance of them hitting 111 than only 97.

I think you are getting too optimistic on the point ceiling at 111. There is just a lot of parity in the league with teams such as Ottawa and Detroit getting better. I believe that 97 points is much more attainable than 111. As you well know, I fall into the optimist camp. If I had to venture a guess I'm expecting a 96 to 97 range. Our road record last year was superb. I don't expect us to match it this year, although I do expect a better home record. The team responds to a near full  building. And I expect that to happen with greater frequency this season. However, I really don't believe that the Sabres are going to reach a three digit point total. 

[Ctaeth]

If I was a betting man (which I am most certainly not), I would take that under for boston

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I think you are getting too optimistic on the point ceiling at 111. There is just a lot of parity in the league with teams such as Ottawa and Detroit getting better. I believe that 97 points is much more attainable than 111. As you well know, I fall into the optimist camp. If I had to venture a guess I'm expecting a 96 to 97 range. Our road record last year was superb. I don't expect us to match it this year, although I do expect a better home record. The team responds to a near full  building. And I expect that to happen with greater frequency this season. However, I really don't believe that the Sabres are going to reach a three digit point total. 

Well, of course 97 is more attainable than 111.  You have to go past there to get to there.  And wherever you go, there you are.  😉

But 97 points says that the team was only 6 points better than last year's squad over 82 games.  103 is 12 points better.  With Levi added; everybody but Clifton, Johnson, and Benson experienced in the current system; Cozens, Peterka, Power, Dahlin, and Mittelstadt and others all a year closer to their peak just have a hard time believing this team turning (on average) a single loss each 10 game segment into 4 W's and 4 trips to OT (or popping 4 OT trips from last year into W's) is outside their capability.

They won't be as good on the road as they were last year, but their home record will be where last year's road record was.  They were flat out horrible at home in general and that won't be the case this year.  Granato will likely still be reluctant to match lines, but he'll do it when he needs to do so.  That alone will help a bunch.

Expect Levi alone is good for at least 8 points in the standings.  Unless this team has huge injury issues, which with a young team will be a bit unexpected; or the STs are absolutely attrocious, this team is a triple digit team.  The PP will likely be bad, but your best PKer is your goalie and the goalie is significantly upgraded.  (The starter is at least.)

And, should Comrie be the backup, not expecting him to have the Anderson vs lousy team mental issues that Craig had last year.  They lost 5 or so games against bad/horrible teams after the calendar flipped with Andy either giving up a really bad goal early keeping that team mentally in the game or giving up that UPL special killer goal later in the game.  Not going to relook it up (there are posts about it here that can easily be searched) but they threw away at least 8 and maybe 12 points in those games.  Comrie won't win them many games, but he's not going to lose them a lot against bad teams either.  And that will be the bulk of the games he plays.

20 points better than last year seems a lot more realistic than only 6 points better does.  (And again, still am expecting 103 - a 12 point improvement.)