Buffalo Sabres Cap Projections

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

What I want see is more acknowledgement that Stillman, Greenway, Levi, Johnson and Clifton represent an attempt to do exactly that: size, strength, defence, experience and a #1 goalie on sensible contracts at the cost of some secondary futures.

Five players on a 23-man roster represents a 20-25% turnover.

It remains to be seen if they’re the right players, but, on paper, Adams has done exactly what you wanted him to.

The time is now.

Well I guess you can say guys like Hayden were an attempt too but not really. Lybushkin was tougher than Bryson but KA saw no value in keeping him. Stillman tries, but imo Fitz was about the same and just as willing to play tough and we tossed him away as a depth guy too. We haven't really shown any real interest in this area for the team. Greenway I just don't know. He's big enough, but last year I saw very little physicality from him. 

Johnson is a question mark to me. He's near career end so does he have anything left? I haven't seen enough yet to know. Cliffy I've always liked. He was the underdog who wouldn't quit in Boston. They like their D bigger (like most teams) so he had to keep proving it, but he did. Can play either side, never quits, hits, fights if needed, blocks shots, always competes. If he brings what I saw in Boston here he will be a good value signing. He was my #1 target for free agency. 

Levi is a separate animal. He came in a trade remember from a team that had another young goalie as their main concern. I remember seeing Levi before he was drafted in some international thing (can't remember which one) and he came in when the assumed starter sucked in a game and Levi was really good. I thought draft this guy in a later round for sure. He has real potential. He was undervalued because of his size. KA saw we were thin in net. This is a possible answer. I would still have preferred a veteran guy to pair with him but it is what it is and I hope it works. 

Ultimately I think my issue is unlike most of the competition we are not spending to the cap. Eventually we might, but with money left in the bank I think we could have been even better and if we miss by a little again that might be the difference. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Ultimately I think my issue is unlike most of the competition we are not spending to the cap. Eventually we might, but with money left in the bank I think we could have been even better and if we miss by a little again that might be the difference. 

I don't think spending the cap to cap right now is a smart thing to do given all the young talent that needs to be retained.  That said, I do think KA has played it cheap the last couple of years and it has hurt the franchise.  For example, Replacing Ullmark with Dell and Anderson was a cheap way to add goaltending when we desperately needed it.  Following up the next year with Comrie and Lyubushkin to solve the D and goaltending woes was also doing it on the cheap.  Now add that he traded away our only RHD depth defenseman in a move that looks to be one to save $ versus doing what is best for this team adds to the perception that KA's frugality might be hurting the franchise.  Certainly not bringing in better players than Comrie and Lyubushkin to start last season and then not getting a better D than Stillman at the deadline almost certainly cost this franchise a playoff birth last season.  Whether or not getting a 1B to go with the rookie Levi is going to end up costing the team this season is a wait-and-see.  

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't think spending the cap to cap right now is a smart thing to do given all the young talent that needs to be retained.  That said, I do think KA has played it cheap the last couple of years and it has hurt the franchise.  For example, Replacing Ullmark with Dell and Anderson was a cheap way to add goaltending when we desperately needed it.  Following up the next year with Comrie and Lyubushkin to solve the D and goaltending woes was also doing it on the cheap.  Now add that he traded away our only RHD depth defenseman in a move that looks to be one to save $ versus doing what is best for this team adds to the perception that KA's frugality might be hurting the franchise.  Certainly not bringing in better players than Comrie and Lyubushkin to start last season and then not getting a better D than Stillman at the deadline almost certainly cost this franchise a playoff birth last season.  Whether or not getting a 1B to go with the rookie Levi is going to end up costing the team this season is a wait-and-see.  

Let me clarify. Spending to the cap on short term deals. Not long term deals. 2-3 year contracts like Clifton got. Then the money is there if the kids have earned it. 

Otherwise you're right, he's been cheap (presumably as ordered) and if they keep doing that they will never win. 

[Richard Noggin]

On 10/3/2023 at 5:32 AM, Curt said:

3) I don't think a #1 overall pick defenseman, who looks the part, would ever sign for such a long, team-friendly deal.

Well, you be wrong in thinking that it would never happen because it’s happened in the recent past.  There are 18 current NHL top-5 pick defensemen who have signed past their ELC, 9 of them signed for 6+ years, and the guys who were higher end players signed for long term more often.  The guys who didn’t sign long term off their ELC mostly signed 2-3 yr bridge deals before signing for longer term after.  It’s a mixed bag but the idea of a highly drafted, high end young defenseman signing long term off their ELC has plenty of precedent.

 

4) Is the thinking that there's some kind of discount for doing it now rather than later? Doesn't much compute, otherwise. 

I actually don’t understand this question.  Could you expand on this?

Will start with #4: maybe I'M actually confused about what kind of AAV a #1 overall pick defenseman who looks the part can demand. But if ELITE players are fetching closer to 10, is your thinking that Power can be had for less due to how young and inexperienced he is? Is it his lack, so far, of demonstrably elite offensive talent? What is it (as Dahlin is headed towards 10-11M AAV...)? This Sabres org has locked in many of their core guys to long deals a little early, it seems, maybe saving money overall by betting on continued growth/production before it's been shown on the ice.

#3: What kinds of AAVs are those other top-5 guys signing for with 6+ years term? I honestly don't know, and you left that out. 

I'm mostly just asking if the Sabres can sign Power to so much term at an annual number as "low" as 8.5. The answer may well be yes to most people. I'm happy to be uninformed and possibly wrong.  

[Curt]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Will start with #4: maybe I'M actually confused about what kind of AAV a #1 overall pick defenseman who looks the part can demand. But if ELITE players are fetching closer to 10, is your thinking that Power can be had for less due to how young and inexperienced he is? Is it his lack, so far, of demonstrably elite offensive talent? What is it (as Dahlin is headed towards 10-11M AAV...)? This Sabres org has locked in many of their core guys to long deals a little early, it seems, maybe saving money overall by betting on continued growth/production before it's been shown on the ice.

#3: What kinds of AAVs are those other top-5 guys signing for with 6+ years term? I honestly don't know, and you left that out. 

I'm mostly just asking if the Sabres can sign Power to so much term at an annual number as "low" as 8.5. The answer may well be yes to most people. I'm happy to be uninformed and possibly wrong.  

Recent D who were drafted top-5, played like #1 D in the making, and then signed 6+ year extensions of off their ELC’s; they have generally signed for 10-11% of the cap.  This is guys like Doughty, Ekbland, Pieterangelo, Heiskanen, Makar.

The cap is 83.5 this coming season, and rumored to be going up to 87-88M the next.

So maybe if Power plays very well this season and the cap goes up to $88M, maybe he could get close to $9.5M max on a 6+ year extension, but that would be the true max max that I think is even plausible.  

Edited October 5, 2023 by Curt

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Recent D who were drafted top-5, played like #1 D in the making, and then signed 6+ year extensions of off their ELC’s; they have generally signed for 10-11% of the cap.  This is guys like Doughty, Ekbland, Pieterangelo, Heiskanen, Makar.

The cap is 83.5 this coming season, and rumored to be going up to 87-88M the next.

So maybe if Power plays very well this season and the cap goes up to $88M, maybe he could get close to $9.5M max on a 6+ year extension, but that would be the true max max that I think is even plausible.  

As I’ve said ad nauseum, the cap will approach $100M within five years. It is the true reason guys are considering Matthew’s lead and not comitting to 7 and 8 year deals. It doesn’t hurt that players have better leadership as well.
This was the last year Buffalo had to take advantage of their cap space and so far, they have chosen not to. Time will tell if they made the right move.

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, tom webster said:

As I’ve said ad nauseum, the cap will approach $100M within five years. It is the true reason guys are considering Matthew’s lead and not comitting to 7 and 8 year deals. It doesn’t hurt that players have better leadership as well.
This was the last year Buffalo had to take advantage of their cap space and so far, they have chosen not to. Time will tell if they made the right move.

Oh, I do recall you repeating it ad nauseum, please believe that.

What do you mean by “approaching” though?  Is that $95M?, $99M?

And 5 years?  Is that the 2028-29 season?

Perhaps Power is considering a shorter deal as opposed to 6+ years for this reason.  I have no idea.

[tom webster]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

Oh, I do recall you repeating it ad nauseum, please believe that.

What do you mean by “approaching” though?  Is that $95M?, $99M?

And 5 years?  Is that the 2028-29 season?

Perhaps Power is considering a shorter deal as opposed to 6+ years for this reason.  I have no idea.

It means that with their top two centers locked up with below market deals, and a pipeline full of prospects that will be at low cap contracts for 3-6 years, the Sabres will have plenty of cap space to sign guys to market deals.

In summary, If the team has any cap issues at any point between now and 2029-2030, they screwed up royally.

[Curt]

12 minutes ago, tom webster said:

It means that with their top two centers locked up with below market deals, and a pipeline full of prospects that will be at low cap contracts for 3-6 years, the Sabres will have plenty of cap space to sign guys to market deals.

In summary, If the team has any cap issues at any point between now and 2029-2030, they screwed up royally.

I was more so looking for specifics.  I might agree or disagree with you.  I have no idea.  Your proclamations are too vague.

If your only point is that the cap will go up, yeah, we know.  Publicly rumored to be going up $4-5M each of the next two offseason.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Curt

[#freejame]

31 minutes ago, tom webster said:

As I’ve said ad nauseum, the cap will approach $100M within five years. It is the true reason guys are considering Matthew’s lead and not comitting to 7 and 8 year deals. It doesn’t hurt that players have better leadership as well.
This was the last year Buffalo had to take advantage of their cap space and so far, they have chosen not to. Time will tell if they made the right move.

You’ve said for months they have a long term deal agreed to with Dahlin and have refused to come off of that. Is this you saying they don’t?

[tom webster]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

I was more so looking for specifics.  I might agree or disagree with you.  I have no idea.  Your proclamations are too vague.

If your only point is that the cap will go up, yeah, we know.  Publicly rumored to be going up $4-5M each of the next two offseason.

I think we agree more than we don’t. You might be a year behind but the numbers are close.  Casey is an interesting situation. If he has a big year he will have to take less then market rate to stay with Buffalo.

You can’t sign everyone and you definitely can’t give him more then Tage.

[tom webster]

4 minutes ago, #freejame said:

You’ve said for months they have a long term deal agreed to with Dahlin and have refused to come off of that. Is this you saying they don’t?

I’m not really sure what happened there but I could guess. They agreed on term and we’re close enough to call it done around mid-June.  Something seems to have changed but I’ll disagree with Peter’s, it’s not acrimonious and I still believe it gets signed very soon.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Now that Dahlin is signed, what does our cap look like for next year.  

Right now we have 12 players signed for next year (8F, 3D and 1G) for a cap hit of 53,206,070.  

RFAs Power, Mitts, Krebs, Joki, Bryson, UPL, and Stillman.

UFAs Z, KO, VO, EJ, Comrie

If Power signs for 8 and Ryan Johnson, Kulich and Savoie make the team, that brings us to 16 players (10-5-1) for $63,967,736.  If the cap jumps to 87.5 million, that leaves about $23,500,000 to complete the rest of the roster.  

How this plays out will be interesting to watch.  All eyes on Mitts, Krebs and Joki.  Assuming all have good seasons, will KA want to commit to all or just some of them?  Will KA bring back any of the UFAs.  My guess right now is maybe only EJ and that in the role of 7th D.

(Cap projected at 87.5 next year according to TSN.CA -edited my post to reflect)

Edited October 10, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Zamboni]

What percentage of the current cap is Dahlin‘s deal? I guess I should clarify… The projected cap next year when Dahlin‘s deal kicks in is what I’m asking.

and what is TNT, Muel, and Skinner projected cap percentage?

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Zamboni said:

What percentage of the current cap is Dahlin‘s deal? I guess I should clarify… The projected cap next year when Dahlin‘s deal kicks in is what I’m asking.

and what is TNT, Muel, and Skinner projected cap percentage?

At an estimated cap of $88 million next year, capfriendly says Dahlin is at 13.17%

TNT is 8.6, Skinner 10.8 and Mule 5.1% for this year.

[Curt]

10 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

What percentage of the current cap is Dahlin‘s deal? I guess I should clarify… The projected cap next year when Dahlin‘s deal kicks in is what I’m asking.

and what is TNT, Muel, and Skinner projected cap percentage?

 

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

At an estimated cap of $88 million next year, capfriendly says Dahlin is at 13.17%

TNT is 8.6, Skinner 10.8 and Mule 5.1% for this year.

Capfriendly lists the cap % based on the cap at the time of signing.

Dahlin’s contract is 13.17% of the current cap, 83.5, but it is 12.5% of the 88M cap projected for next season.

[PromoTheRobot]

On 10/5/2023 at 10:55 AM, tom webster said:

I’m not really sure what happened there but I could guess. They agreed on term and we’re close enough to call it done around mid-June.  Something seems to have changed but I’ll disagree with Peter’s, it’s not acrimonious and I still believe it gets signed very soon.

Maybe Dahlin's camp wanted $11MM/yr to sign for 8 years and Kev said let's wait until we know what the cap will be before agreeing.

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/as-the-nhl-season-begins-the-long-anticipated-salary-cap-boom-is-coming-in-the-summer-of-2024-1.2018834

This story pegs the cap next year at 87.5.

[Mango]

On 10/9/2023 at 11:44 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Now that Dahlin is signed, what does our cap look like for next year.  

Right now we have 12 players signed for next year (8F, 3D and 1G) for a cap hit of 53,206,070.  

RFAs Power, Mitts, Krebs, Joki, Bryson, UPL, and Stillman.

UFAs Z, KO, VO, EJ, Comrie

If Power signs for 8 and Ryan Johnson, Kulich and Savoie make the team, that brings us to 16 players (10-5-1) for $63,967,736.  If the cap jumps to 87.5 million, that leaves about $23,500,000 to complete the rest of the roster.  

How this plays out will be interesting to watch.  All eyes on Mitts, Krebs and Joki.  Assuming all have good seasons, will KA want to commit to all or just some of them?  Will KA bring back any of the UFAs.  My guess right now is maybe only EJ and that in the role of 7th D.

(Cap projected at 87.5 next year according to TSN.CA -edited my post to reflect)

 

From a roster maintenance stand point I feel like if we are going to bring up Kulich and Savoie next year, as well as Benson, we need more consistency from the JJP, Cozens, Quinn line. They need to fully arrive as a top 6 line. Not "going to be great top 6". But "are a great top 6". We can't have an NHL roster with 6 of the top 9 forwards "developing". 
 

I think Mitts could be a good barometer of what is going on in the FO and/or ownership. If Mitts plays this year like he finished last year I would pay him just about whatever his market value is. What is the point in saving space for the young guys if you don't pay the young guys. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, Mango said:

 

From a roster maintenance stand point I feel like if we are going to bring up Kulich and Savoie next year, as well as Benson, we need more consistency from the JJP, Cozens, Quinn line. They need to fully arrive as a top 6 line. Not "going to be great top 6". But "are a great top 6". We can't have an NHL roster with 6 of the top 9 forwards "developing". 
 

I think Mitts could be a good barometer of what is going on in the FO and/or ownership. If Mitts plays this year like he finished last year I would pay him just about whatever his market value is. What is the point in saving space for the young guys if you don't pay the young guys. 

 

This is where the hard decisions come in.  In my analysis, the 23.5 mill is easily enough to bring back Mitts and Krebs up front with plenty of room to spare.  The issue is the UFAs.  I think we can all agree it's highly unlikely VO returns, but what of EJ, KO, Z, and Jost?  For a team like the Sabres, because of the depth of the O pipeline, you are going to have youngsters on the roster for years and years to come. 

Don't forget that even if we move on from Z and KO, it doesn't mean the forwards would be devoid of veteran leadership.  In 2024-25 Thompson will be 27 with 7 pro seasons under his belt, Skinner will be 32 with 14 NHL seasons, Tuch, 28, with 8 pro seasons, Mitts, 26, with 6 seasons, and Greenway, 27, with 7 seasons.  These are veterans in their primes.

To stay cap-compliant, all teams have to turn to cheap kids or older veterans on cheap deals.   Once Power signs (I guess for 8 x 8), the Sabres will have 7 players (Dahlin, Skinner, Power, Cozens, Tnt, Tuch, & Mule) making approx 51.28 million or 59% of next season's projected cap.  In 2024 KA has to make decisions on Krebs, Joki, and Mitts.  In 2025 he has to make decisions on Levi, JJP and Quinn.  There is almost no way to retain everyone.   

2024-25 might look like this

Skinner TNT Tuch

Benson Mitts Quinn

JJP Cozens Savoie

Kulich Krebs Greenway (Girgensons)

Dahlin Mule

Power NEW Player

Ryan Johnson Clifton (Eric Johnson)

Levi - New Player

In my model I've re-signed Mitts for 6.5 x 6 years, Krebs 3 x 3, Z 1 x 2.5, and EJ 1 x 2.5.  KA acquires a real backup (for $2 per season) and that leaves an opening for another D acquisition who can potentially partner with Power.  I'm including Joki in the package to get the new D.  I've budgeted $6 for this player.  

This model has the Sabres at 86.5 for 2024-25. 

 

[thewookie1]

The idea of Okposo stepping away after this year is probably likely. At most he’d have one year left and that’s only if he keeps being a solid 4th liner. Girgensons still will be a great energy guy. Depending on E. Johnson’s year, I could see him sticking around as a 7th defenseman that is used sparingly in certain situations. 
 

I think a lot of next year’s roster will be decided by both our finish, playoffs or not, and how many fence sitters fall into re-sign territory versus bye-bye

Jokiharju is likely the biggest question mark since he’s literally at the point of stand up or shut up. With guys like Johnson and the Russian kid working their way up, he either needs to prove he’s a perfect partner for Power or be used to get a different one. 

Olofsson is almost assuredly a goner and could even be dealt mid season if we sign Kane on a 1 year deal. He’d have to practically reinvent himself to stick around.

Jost is just a guy, a good person but not much else. His future will be decided by our  need for a 13th/14th F or AHL call up.

Of all of them Mitts has the most likely case for a return. It all depends on his health and which Mitts shows up during the season. Will he be the Mitts who pushes play, plays with some moxie and puts up 2nd line points. Or will he shrink back into the background character or IR laden guy he was for most of his career aside a couple spurts.

Krebs has a destiny that is tied to both Mitts and his continued growth. If Krebs grows into a solid energy center who is still a high end playmaker and doesn’t ask for the moon; he’ll at least get a short extension. If Mitts falls apart and Krebs seizes the opportunity, he might get a slightly longer extension. If he fades into nothingness, he might get a one year deal but will likely lose his place within the team’s future plans. My honest hope is that he can turn into a solid defensive center, face off winner that with his passing aptitude and high motor can make any 4th line a threat while also being capable of sliding up in emergencies 

[GASabresIUFAN]

@thewookie1

Lots of moving parts.  

You raise an interesting point.  What happens to the plan if the team takes a step back and misses the playoffs?  What if Levi proves not to be the solution? What if EJ, Clifton, and Joki fail to make the defense better? 

Do you really think KA saved cap for Kane? (Sounds like a slogan).