Buffalo Sabres Cap Projections

[Curt]

I have an interest tracking and projecting the Sabres future cap situation.  I did this exercise last offseason as well, and I’ve gone through and updated it.

The Sabres situation is interesting right now.  In some ways they are very locked into their core players, in other ways they have tons of flexibility around the edges.  Its interesting just trying to predict how things will develop.

Obviously this is no where near how things will go.  There will be more free agent role players and fewer prospects who make it.  By projecting Mitts, Tuch, Quinn and Levi for largish long term contracts as well as a star breakout, and equivalent contract, for Benson, I tried to demonstrate how the Sabres could accommodate a few additional big salaries in addition to those that we already expect (Skinner, Tage, Cozens, Dahlin, Power)

Anyway, this is mostly for fun, so enjoy!

Click on the image for a clearer view.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Curt

[Believer]

Nice work, Curt… UFAs are an unknown… and would hate to see Krebs traded…

Agree Rosen and Savoie may not fit the bigger, stronger roster KA is building unless they grow a couple inches and put on some muscle to avoid upper body injuries.

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, Believer said:

Nice work, Curt… UFAs are an unknown… and would hate to see Krebs traded…

Agree Rosen and Savoie may not fit the bigger, stronger roster KA is building unless they grow a couple inches and put on some muscle to avoid upper body injuries.

They are still teenagers.  A few inches and more muscle are probably in the cards.

[Curt]

Ok everyone, I got the image uploaded.  Not sure why it wouldn’t work last night.  Enjoy.

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, Curt said:

I have an interest tracking and projecting the Sabres future cap situation.  I did this exercise last offseason as well, and I’ve gone through and updated it.

The Sabres situation is interesting right now.  In some ways they are very locked into their core players, in other ways they have tons of flexibility around the edges.  Its interesting just trying to predict how things will develop.

Obviously this is no where near how things will go.  There will be more free agent role players and fewer prospects who make it.  By projecting Mitts, Tuch, Quinn and Levi for largish long term contracts as well as a star breakout, and equivalent contract, for Benson, I tried to demonstrate how the Sabres could accommodate a few additional big salaries in addition to those that we already expect (Skinner, Tage, Cozens, Dahlin, Power)

Anyway, this is mostly for fun, so enjoy!

Click on the image for a clearer view.

 

 

I'm not sure Savoie's contract can slide another year after this one. 

[Taro T]

57 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm not sure Savoie's contract can slide another year after this one. 

Correct.  Contracts only slide for 18 & 19 yo's.  They aren't allowed to play in the AHL (except under extremely rare circumstances) so to keep teams from having a disincentive to sign 18 yo CHLers or an incentive to force them onto the NHL team a year or 2 early they came up with the compromise that the contract essentially gets delayed for any signed 18 or 19 yo that doesn't make the NHL roster. 

20 yo's can play in the AHL so they can actually be earning the 2 way part of the money from the contract they signed so there is no reason for their contracts to slide.  Apparently that there are a few guys that can play in the AHL while 18 or 19 wasn't seen as enough of a concern to make that section of the CBA regarding ELCs even more convoluted.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Very good analysis and not far off of what the Sabres seem to be planning.

Not a fan of you saying that the Savoie will end up traded.

[PerreaultForever]

Some generous paydays for a few. So I guess you are fully convinced Mitts and Quinn are the real deal? Also, you are sold on Levi before you even plays a season. I guess you are an optimist. Quinn at 6 seems crazy to me but maybe he will be that guy. We shall see. If Mitts is 3C, that to me is around 4.5 not 6. You're also a big Greenway fan. He has to show me a lot more before I pay him more than 2. 

[Zamboni]

Paydays in 2023-2024 are much different than paydays in 2017-2018. What were “huge deals”  6 years ago, are pretty average or slightly bigger than expected in 2023-2024. Plus as always and repeated ad nauseam, you pay for youth, most productive years, and expected development and production. I am not surprised at all on the projected “larger” numbers for most players.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Some generous paydays for a few. So I guess you are fully convinced Mitts and Quinn are the real deal? Also, you are sold on Levi before you even plays a season. I guess you are an optimist. Quinn at 6 seems crazy to me but maybe he will be that guy. We shall see. If Mitts is 3C, that to me is around 4.5 not 6. You're also a big Greenway fan. He has to show me a lot more before I pay him more than 2. 

This isn’t a will and testament.  It’s a projection.  It’s a bunch of guesses.  Mostly for fun, but also to demonstrate a general overview of Buffalo’s cap situation moving forward.

There are so many prospects that I think it’s a near guarantee that a couple of them pop.  Switch the names around if you like.

But, just to address your comments, for fun:

If Mitts is once again put in a position to put up 55+ points, he is going to get ~$6M.  Whether it’s in Buffalo or somewhere else.  If he is stapled onto the 3rd line and puts up 40 something, it will be less.

Quinn and Levi, yeah, I’m just projecting continued development and that they will be good.  Same with Benson.

Greenway, I’m kind of projecting that he gets back to being pretty good like was a couple years ago, but I have no idea if he will, I hope so.

On the flip side I’m projecting Krebs, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Jokiharju, Strbak, McCarthy to not really be long term significant pieces.  Some will, some won’t, I don’t really know which are which.

In reality this won’t be close.  There will probably a consolidation trade or two at some point and also FA signings taking the places if some of these prospects.  The names aren’t as significant as the numbers for  contracts that aren’t signed yet.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Curt

[sweetlou]

I think Tuch will be in the $7-8 million range, and be the next captain.

Edited October 3, 2023 by sweetlou

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

I think Tuch will be in the $7-8 million range, and be the next captain.

Could certainly happen.  If he keeps putting up 70+ point seasons, then it surely will.  I’m kind of guessing that last season was a bit of an outlier and he is more of a 50-65 point guy, with some injuries, going forward.

[GASabresIUFAN]

@Curt I think your chart is missing Rousek (and possibly Biro).

 

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

In reality this won’t be close.  There will probably a consolidation trade or two at some point and also FA signings taking the places if some of these prospects.  The names aren’t as significant as the numbers for  contracts that aren’t signed yet.

Oh I know, way too many variables, but this consolidation trade idea has me interested. What do you mean by that? My feeling is that at some point we have to bundle a few prospects/picks together for one shinier new toy, perhaps at a different position. Is that what you mean?

As for free agents, well things might change, but we haven't shown much in that department with big names (big salaries). The future could be different. 

[Richard Noggin]

Got a definitive legend to the chart (shades/colors, mostly, but also assumptions/projections) for quick reference?

Most of it is intuitive, but still.

[Richard Noggin]

So you're projecting here that Owen Power accepts 7 years @8.5 per? Don't think his team will seek something more in the 4-6 range like a super bridge? I don't think a #1 overall pick defenseman, who looks the part, would ever sign for such a long, team-friendly deal. Is the thinking that there's some kind of discount for doing it now rather than later? Doesn't much compute, otherwise. 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

So you're projecting here that Owen Power accepts 7 years @8.5 per? Don't think his team will seek something more in the 4-6 range like a super bridge? I don't think a #1 overall pick defenseman, who looks the part, would ever sign for such a long, team-friendly deal. Is the thinking that there's some kind of discount for doing it now rather than later? Doesn't much compute, otherwise. 

A lot of questions here.  I’ll address them one by one.

1) So you're projecting here that Owen Power accepts 7 years @8.5 per?

Yup

2) Don't think his team will seek something more in the 4-6 range like a super bridge?

I don’t know what Power will seek.  I wouldn’t call anything more than 4 years a bridge, though.

 

3) I don't think a #1 overall pick defenseman, who looks the part, would ever sign for such a long, team-friendly deal.

Well, you be wrong in thinking that it would never happen because it’s happened in the recent past.  There are 18 current NHL top-5 pick defensemen who have signed past their ELC, 9 of them signed for 6+ years, and the guys who were higher end players signed for long term more often.  The guys who didn’t sign long term off their ELC mostly signed 2-3 yr bridge deals before signing for longer term after.  It’s a mixed bag but the idea of a highly drafted, high end young defenseman signing long term off their ELC has plenty of precedent.

 

4) Is the thinking that there's some kind of discount for doing it now rather than later? Doesn't much compute, otherwise. 

I actually don’t understand this question.  Could you expand on this?

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Got a definitive legend to the chart (shades/colors, mostly, but also assumptions/projections) for quick reference?

Most of it is intuitive, but still.

Only in my mind, lol.

Um, ELCs are white, contracts already signed are green, projected contracts are orange.

[Curt]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Oh I know, way too many variables, but this consolidation trade idea has me interested. What do you mean by that? My feeling is that at some point we have to bundle a few prospects/picks together for one shinier new toy, perhaps at a different position. Is that what you mean?

As for free agents, well things might change, but we haven't shown much in that department with big names (big salaries). The future could be different. 

Yeah, that’s pretty much exactly what I mean by consolidation trade.  Take 2-4 assets that are maybes and turn them into one asset that is much more of a certainty.

As for FA’s, even if they don’t go ever go after big FA’s, there will be other mid level guys (like Clifton) who get signed for somewhat significant money and term.

[Broken Ankles]

Missing Östlund.  Fits in more prominently than at least 7 of the forwards listed.  
 

If Dahlin is not signed for 7/8 years in the $10-11m…and Owen takes a bridge like Ras, you can sign Joki to an extension.  Want to see to see his growth this year but I could see them trying to keep the band together. 

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Missing Östlund.  Fits in more prominently than at least 7 of the forwards listed.  
 

If Dahlin is not signed for 7/8 years in the $10-11m…and Owen takes a bridge like Ras, you can sign Joki to an extension.  Want to see to see his growth this year but I could see them trying to keep the band together. 

Sadly, some guys just won’t pan out.

[PerreaultForever]

14 hours ago, Curt said:

Yeah, that’s pretty much exactly what I mean by consolidation trade.  Take 2-4 assets that are maybes and turn them into one asset that is much more of a certainty.

As for FA’s, even if they don’t go ever go after big FA’s, there will be other mid level guys (like Clifton) who get signed for somewhat significant money and term.

You want to look at solid value guys in FA and not those big shiny Taylor Hall types imo. What I want to see next year is more effort to fill the holes or get the type of players the roster is missing. If the young core is good enough (including Levi) you don't want to keep waiting for the future hole fillers, you want to do it now and structure your contracts accordingly. 

I'm just tired of waiting for next year. Time is now. 

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

You want to look at solid value guys in FA and not those big shiny Taylor Hall types imo. What I want to see next year is more effort to fill the holes or get the type of players the roster is missing. If the young core is good enough (including Levi) you don't want to keep waiting for the future hole fillers, you want to do it now and structure your contracts accordingly. 

I'm just tired of waiting for next year. Time is now. 

Agree regarding using FA to fill mid tier roster holes as opposed to going big game hunting.

The goalie situation is the one that really bothers me.  It should be better.  Levi should have a reliable guy to share the crease with.  There wasn’t much goalie movement this offseason, but it’s a multi year issue that Adams has to be considered responsible for.  Hopefully Levi is good, Comrie/UPL are serviceable, and it’s not a real problem.  Kind of beating a dead horse here though.

[dudacek]

14 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You want to look at solid value guys in FA and not those big shiny Taylor Hall types imo. What I want to see next year is more effort to fill the holes or get the type of players the roster is missing. If the young core is good enough (including Levi) you don't want to keep waiting for the future hole fillers, you want to do it now and structure your contracts accordingly. 

I'm just tired of waiting for next year. Time is now. 

What I want see is more acknowledgement that Stillman, Greenway, Levi, Johnson and Clifton represent an attempt to do exactly that: size, strength, defence, experience and a #1 goalie on sensible contracts at the cost of some secondary futures.

Five players on a 23-man roster represents a 20-25% turnover.

It remains to be seen if they’re the right players, but, on paper, Adams has done exactly what you wanted him to.

The time is now.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Please don't lump Stillman in the rest of those acquisitions.  At best Stillman is our 7th D and he is a sub-replacement level player.  The more games he plays, the worse it is for the team.  I have more confidence in Ryan Johnson than in any of Stillman, Bryson, or Clague.