What have we learned from training camp so far?

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Despite the dinner-with-the-boss thing, I think Kev is shopping Ukka.

At this time of year, I'm not sure he has much value on the market. There will be a lot of teams having to decide who will be their backup goalies and who to let go. My feeling if he doesn't make the roster and is picked up before being assigned to Rochester, then so be it. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by JohnC

[Curt]

28 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

What we've learned from camp and the offseason is the Sabres like to gamble.

The biggest complaint I have with the roster is that we're asking Devon Levi to win the Calder. He's the clear starter at this point. He's going to need to play 55 or more games--more than he has ever played in a season--and play each game as the well-above-average goalie he is believed to be. That's a tall order for any goalie, much less a rookie.

These are the only goalies to even play in 40 or more NHL games before their age 22 season since 2005:

- Steve Mason: Played 61 games his age 20 season, 58 games his age 21 season. Worth mentioning  he was only called up because of injury. He just kept the job. Even CBJ didn't intend to start him in the NHL at age 20.

- Carey Price: 20 NHL (20 AHL) games his age 20 season, 52 games his age 21 season

- Carter Hart: 31 NHL (18 AHL) games his age 20 season, 43 games his age 21 season

- Spencer Knight: 4 NHL / 21 college games his age 19 season, 32 NHL + 11 AHL games his age 20 season, 21 NHL and 2 AHL games his age 21 season.

- MAF: 21 NHL games at age 19. None age 20 (54 AHL but also a lockout). 50 NHL and 12 AHL games age 21.

- Vasilevski: 25 AHL, 16 NHL at age 20. 12 AHL, 24 NHL at age 21.

The only goalies to play 50+ games in an age 21 or earlier season are MAF, Steve Mason and Carey Price--and all those happened before Levi was 8 years old. Most recently Carter Hart played 43 in his 21 year old season, but he at least played 31 games in the NHL the year prior. Levi played 7 NHL games last season (plus 34 college).

Levi is forced into the role of starting goalie. This isn't a 1A/1B situation. This is a clear starter and backup situation. If we define a starter/backup as 50+ games, we're looking at a total of only 16 goalies in the NHL last season and 17 the year prior. Of 32 teams in the league, only half had a goalie starting 50 or more games.

If we look at goalies playing the more realistic 55+ games, it's now 12 in 22-23 and 12 in 21-22. 

Worse still, there's going to be ~27 games where the backup isn't clear--and, unfortunately, t's not clear for positive reasons.

Comrie played 11 games before injured. In those 11 games, Comrie went 4-7-0 and had a .887 SV% and a 3.45 GAA--he also had the worst GSAx in the league at one point. Across all 19 games of the season, he had a .886 SV% and a 3.67 GAA. Comrie had two great games on the road trip and then his game fell off and he was injured. It's possible he was simply tired and not ready for a starting workload.

When he returned from injury, he was actually the second best goalie from January on for Buffalo--second only in GSAx to Devon Levi. I was honestly surprised when I learned that. He posted a 5-2-1 record.

What's even crazier is that he managed to be the second best goalie in Buffalo with regards GSAx despite giving up 10 goals in one game on 49 shots to Dallas. Sweet baby Jesus. Without the Dallas game, he had a .905 SV% and a 2.85 GAA when he returned from injury. If we add the Dallas game in, he had a 3.75 GAA and a .884 SV%.

UPL was the rookie of the month in January after going 6-2-1 with a 3.05GAA and a .907 SV%. He went 6-2-0 in December with a 3.12 GAA and .908 SV%. 

In November he was 1-1-1 with a 4.33 GAA and an .845 SV%.

Then February he was 2-3-0 with a 4.2 GAA and an .858 SV% including getting pulled in a game against Toronto 12:09 into the game after giving up 4 on 10 shots.

March was a 3.96 GAA (when adjusting for coming in to relieve Craig Anderson in a game) and a .879 SV%. He was 1-3-2 in the month.

And he played one game in April with a .929 SV% and 3 goals against to go 1-0-0.

I realize it's the complaint shared by most here and I'm just restating the obvious but it still needs to be said. It's not doubting that Levi isn't a future NHL goalie. It's just the question of whether we're wasting a year of the "window" on what would normally be the first (of typically many) growth/development season for a young goalie.

We are gambling that an untested 21 year old goalie can do something that's essentially unheard of in today's NHL and would justifiably earn him the Calder Trophy.

Lets break down the best case scenario: Levi can handle a starting load and Eric Comrie is a good goalie, but can only handle a load typical for a backup. UPL is inconsistent and is waived because blowing a roster spot on three goalies is brutal.

Eric Comrie is probably the best backup goalie we have, but after he returned from injury last season, he only played in 8 of 37 games. And, absent one absolutely atrocious game from both him and the entire team, he was at least consistent in net. But playing in 8 of 37 over an 82 game season means he gets 18 starts. Do we expect Levi to start 64 games? That's how Winnipeg used him. Winnipeg also had Demko as a starter and not a 21 year old rookie.

We don't have a backup plan because our best backup is Eric Comrie--who might honestly be absolutely fine as a backup goalie--who isn't a starting goalie. If he doesn't work, we are forced to run with an inconsistent UPL. The same goalie who dropped some important games last season at a time when we needed them most--games that were important because of a stretch in November where Comrie dropped a bunch of games.

In short, this team makes the playoffs if Levi wins the Calder. If Levi doesn't win the Calder, it's going to be another lost season.

No pressure kid.

Not that this invalidates your overarching point, but Devon Levi will be in his age 22 season this season, not his age 21 season.

 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Curt said:

Not that this invalidates your overarching point, but Devon Levi will be in his age 22 season this season, not his age 21 season.

 

I thought the clock was set by age at the start of the season? That’s what I’ve used and I thought that’s what Elite Prospects uses as well.

Legitimately don’t know if there is an NHL standard, although I suspect there should be something defining age for purposes of the CBA. @Taro T might know for sure, if you aren’t.

(Levi turns 22 on Dec. 27, for anyone wondering)

 

[Doohicksie]

8 hours ago, Rasmus_ said:

Id rather have Anderson had he not retired over these two wastes of contract space. 

Anderson was baked toward the end.

[Doohicksie]

7 hours ago, SabresBaltimore said:

In general though I give Comrie a lot of credit for keeping it close. The Penguins got several breakaway opportunities, including one by Crosby and Comrie shut them down. A major contrast to what UPL did against a much weaker Toronto team the night before when put in similar situations.

 

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, Night Train said:

Agreed. I also was surprised to see/hear Craig Anderson was hanging around here for a few days. His family house in in South Florida. Wonder if they asked him about 1 more year

I'm gonna say no.  I think he was probably invited (and possibly compensated) to come to camp as a "special goalie consultant" or some such.  He's familiar with the goalies and can probably assist in coaching/developing them, especially during training camp.

[Taro T]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I thought the clock was set by age at the start of the season? That’s what I’ve used and I thought that’s what Elite Prospects uses as well.

Legitimately don’t know if there is an NHL standard, although I suspect there should be something defining age for purposes of the CBA. @Taro T might know for sure, if you aren’t.

(Levi turns 22 on Dec. 27, for anyone wondering)

 

How a player's age is defined depends upon which portion of the CBA one is concerned with.  A player's age at the signing of his 1st contract is determined by his age on September 15 of the calendar year he signs the contract.

For eligibility for a contract to slide a year, an 18 yo and a 19 yo are determined by their age on September 15 of the year they sign a contract and only NHL games count towards that 10 game threshold to count as a season for the ELC.  But for a "19 yo" that's really 20 (because of the late birthday) the contract won't slide.

For purposes of FA, it depends upon which category of FA you are looking at whether an 18 or 19 yo with 10 games of pro experience accrues a year or if he needs to be on an active roster for 40 games to accrue a year.  And even then it can vary as for Group 2 FA (restricted FA's) the player only earns the experience for playing in the NHL  BUT when that 19 yo turns 20 (including those guys with late September and on birthdays), any professional games count towards the 10 game threshold to count as a season for the ELC  restricted free agency.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Taro T
Fixed several typos. Had 2 sections of CBA intertwined. Oops.

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

I'll wait till they Actually play a real game before I complain.

You know that's a lie.  You just can't help it.

 

....although you *have* been oddly positive so far.  Did your wife hack your account or something?

[Taro T]

And in regards to whether Levi is 21 or 22 this season, he's 21 in 2023 as far as the league is concerned.  And he's 22 in 2024 as far as the league is concerned.

[Buffalonill]

7 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

You know that's a lie.  You just can't help it.

 

....although you *have* been oddly positive so far.  Did your wife hack your account or something?

My password is pretty easy 123456

[PerreaultForever]

I personally haven't learned a lot. It all looks similar to last year imo. Reading all the comments above I agree with most of them although maybe some are a little overly optimistic.

Biro? That seems like a reach. Benson's good, but he has to go back to junior. Be patient. He is part of the future (not the present). Levi looked ready. He looked ready last year. The question is can he hold up for a full season plus? Power sophomore slump? Highly possible. Certainly hasn't looked great so far but him slumping might still be better than average. idk. Wait and see. 

About Tuch Cliffy and Johnson not playing I wouldn't worry. I think Tuch had a minor ding but mostly I think it's because they know exactly what those guys are want to see who fills out the last spot(s). Pairings will matter and I think end of preseason we will get the glimpse. 

Mitts at 3C does seem likely and viable. He does look pretty good. Krebs on the other hand not so much. Still interested to know what the Greenway plan is. A little concerned over the PK plan. An area that was not good last year. Thompson on PK? Reach and speed, counter attack, but what about those face offs? Not sure how this plays out. 

Overall still have the same concerns as before. Lack of (good) D depth, goaltending question (durability and good back up), ability to hold up to physicality, PK and overall team defense. Far too early to see what the final line up is and how it plays, but right now change from last year rests solely on Levi. 

 

[RochesterExpat]

1 minute ago, Buffalonill said:

My password is pretty easy 123456

Hey that’s the same combination I have on my luggage!

[Buffalonill]

Just now, RochesterExpat said:

Hey that’s the same combination I have on my luggage!

That's why us man rule the world 

[dudacek]

47 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And in regards to whether Levi is 21 or 22 this season, he's 21 in 2023 as far as the league is concerned.  And he's 22 in 2024 as far as the league is concerned.

Right, but we want to know what he is in the 23-24 season 😜

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

How a player's age is defined depends upon which portion of the CBA one is concerned with.  A player's age at the signing of his 1st contract is determined by his age on September 15 of the calendar year he signs the contract.

For eligibility for a contract to slide a year, an 18 yo and a 19 yo are determined by their age on September 15 of the year they sign a contract and only NHL games count towards that 10 game threshold to count as a season for the ELC.  But for a "19 yo" that's really 20 (because of the late birthday) the contract won't slide.

For purposes of FA, it depends upon which category of FA you are looking at whether an 18 or 19 yo with 10 games of pro experience accrues a year or if he needs to be on an active roster for 40 games to accrue a year.  And even then it can vary as for Group 2 FA (restricted FA's) the player only earns the experience for playing in the NHL  BUT when that 19 yo turns 20 (including those guys with late September and on birthdays), any professional games count towards the 10 game threshold to count as a season for the ELC  restricted free agency.

 

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

And in regards to whether Levi is 21 or 22 this season, he's 21 in 2023 as far as the league is concerned.  And he's 22 in 2024 as far as the league is concerned.

@dudacek

Not saying you are wrong or anything, it’s just really weird, and the NHL’s classifications here aren’t really meant to be a guide on a player’s age during a certain season.

Case in point, any player born in late September or early October will not play a single at their age for the season.

For example, Jack Quinn turned 22 a week and a half ago.  Should we really call this his age 21 season?  Even though he will be 22 for every single game?  Doesn’t make any sense to me.  I go by Hockey Reference’s classification, which uses a Jan 31 cut off date.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Curt

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

What we've learned from camp and the offseason is the Sabres like to gamble.

The biggest complaint I have with the roster is that we're asking Devon Levi to win the Calder. He's the clear starter at this point. He's going to need to play 55 or more games--more than he has ever played in a season--and play each game as the well-above-average goalie he is believed to be. That's a tall order for any goalie, much less a rookie.

-SNIP-

No pressure kid.

Good stuff here.

Unfortunately, after reading it, I'm left with the conclusion that the most likely outcome is that they keep 3 goalies.

[Weave]

34 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Good stuff here.

Unfortunately, after reading it, I'm left with the conclusion that the most likely outcome is that they keep 3 goalies.

I’m telling ya……… it’s not going away.

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Good stuff here.

Unfortunately, after reading it, I'm left with the conclusion that the most likely outcome is that they keep 3 goalies.

What is the effect on the roster if we keep 3 goalies? The answer is we can only carry 7 D or 12 forwards.  

If they go the 12 forward route, then none of the kids are making the team or one of VO or Jost will have to be traded. Rousek is still waivers exempt but Biro is not. 

 If they go the 7 D route, Bryson is the likely casualty.  None of Bryson, Stillman or Clague are waiver exempt.  

Personally I don’t think keeping 3 goalies is the plan.  They brought Tokarski back to be the 3rd goalie if necessary.  

Edited September 29, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Pimlach]

I think the OP is spot on.

My additional thoughts: 

• Comrie looked better than UPL but there are a few games left and I think KA likes UPL. 
• Devon is going to be asked to do a lot. 
• We have not seen our real defense yet.   
• Stillman is looking like the 7.   Bryson or Clague are 8 and one gets waived.
• Johnson and Novikov impress me.  Give them time in Rochester.  
• Benson should get his 9 games, he looks the best of the forward prospects, lets see what he does.  
• Kulich, Rosen, are knocking on the door but they will benefit from more AHL time.  Could  be up at some point.  
• Biro shows more than Rousek so far - if one makes it, it might be Biro.  
• Kozak get noticed occasionally but he goes back to AHL for experience.  Murray is not fast enough.  
• The Russians need time in the AHL. 
• Jost could be in trouble if Benson sticks.   We have lots of talent 60 miles away that does not have to clear waivers to fill in.  
• Savoie injured and not allowed to play in the AHL is an awful situation for him.  

Edited September 30, 2023 by Pimlach

[Marvin]

3 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

My password is pretty easy 123456

"Wow.  That's the same combination that I have for my luggage."

Now, I will go practice my Putts. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Marvin
For some reason, something automatically changed a golf term

[mjd1001]

Would Tampa be interested in UPL (They have 2 goalies that basically have never played in the NHL AND Jonas Johanson), and if so would KA be willing to trade him in the division? 

[PerreaultForever]

16 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Would Tampa be interested in UPL (They have 2 goalies that basically have never played in the NHL AND Jonas Johanson), and if so would KA be willing to trade him in the division? 

I doubt you could get much of anything for UPL right now. If I'm Tampa I wouldn't want him. I'd probably take Tokarski off waivers before UPL if I had no other options league wide. They're going to want a short term stable guy that might not be great but is consistent not who knows what happens on the next shot UPL. I will be shocked if ANY team claims him if we waive him and send him down. 

[nfreeman]

42 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I doubt you could get much of anything for UPL right now. If I'm Tampa I wouldn't want him. I'd probably take Tokarski off waivers before UPL if I had no other options league wide. They're going to want a short term stable guy that might not be great but is consistent not who knows what happens on the next shot UPL. I will be shocked if ANY team claims him if we waive him and send him down. 

I agree that he won’t be high on Tampa’s list, but if UPL is waived, someone will definitely claim him..
 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What is the effect on the roster if we keep 3 goalies? The answer is we can only carry 7 D or 12 forwards.  

If they go the 12 forward route, then none of the kids are making the team or one of VO or Jost will have to be traded. Rousek is still waivers exempt but Biro is not. 

 If they go the 7 D route, Bryson is the likely casualty.  None of Bryson, Stillman or Clague are waiver exempt.  

Personally I don’t think keeping 3 goalies is the plan.  They brought Tokarski back to be the 3rd goalie if necessary.  

I hope you’re right, but I think they would waive Jost and Bryson before waiving UPL.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that he won’t be high on Tampa’s list, but if UPL is waived, someone will definitely claim him..
 

I hope you’re right, but I think they would waive Jost and Bryson before waiving UPL.

The truth is all 3 are sub-replacement players.  The problem is Jost and Bryson are being paid nearly $4 mill.  I don’t think TP would be thrilled with dumping $4 mill to Rochester.  KA would try to trade them for anything before waiving them and sending them down.  I also not sure why you bring back Tokarski and sign a proven AHL netminder like Cooley if the plan wasn’t to move on from either Comrie or UPL. In fact, Cooley posted better numbers in the A last year than UPL ever did.  I don’t think Cooley signs with Buffalo if he thought he’d be returning to the ECHL. 

Ultimately I think it shakes out as 13-8-2, but 13-7-3 wouldn’t be the worst thing as it would give Johnson a chance at an earlier callup,give KA and DG a longer runway to decide on who the ultimate backup to Levi would be, and also allow DG to build Levi’s work load more slowly.  That said I doubt the 3 headed goalie monster lasts more than a month or 2.  

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that he won’t be high on Tampa’s list, but if UPL is waived, someone will definitely claim him..
 

I hope you’re right, but I think they would waive Jost and Bryson before waiving UPL.

I was watching Philly Boston tonight and Peterson was really good. Philly might actually have too many goalies.