Training Camp Roster Moves

[JoeSchmoe]

Just some additional context... xg stats always seem to devalue big shooters like VO. I think his value is greater than his advanced stats.

On the flip side, the eye test shows he generally isn't very good at making plays or playing defense. I will say though, there's been times he's looked VERY good as far as playmaking and forechecking goes. He just doesn't seem to have the natural drive to do it on a consistent basis.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

The sentiment that Mitts is a tough winner of puck battles has been expressed a fair amount here recently.  I'm here to take exception.  IMHO he's gone from completely ineffective in this regard to average.  He's far from some monster on the boards who comes out of every scrum with the puck.

As for his historical issues, there have been quite a few, but IMHO the biggest issue was consistently poor decision-making with the puck.  He'd get it in the neutral zone and skate it inexplicably into traffic, pass it where his teammate wasn't or think he could beat a defender one-on-one and immediately lose the puck to the defender.  That issue improved, like the rest of his game, in the 2nd half of last season.  Will that improvement continue?  DM seems to think so.

We'll see.

 

First, it's way too soon for the victory lap on Mitts.  He's played 5 NHL seasons and had one good half-season.  His early years were spent in a highly dysfunctional environment, and I think everyone runs his own race, so I think the Sabres were right not to give up on him.  I kinda expect him to continue to improve -- but there will be more pressure on him and the entire team this year.  He may or may not be up to the task.

As for a contract, I could've missed it, but I don't think KA has said anything about an extension for Mitts, who is an RFA after this season -- unlike Power and Dahlin, whom KA has publicly stated the team is trying to sign.  I'd guess that KA wants to sign Mitts, but at a fairly limited number in term and AAV, and probably not until Power and Dahlin are done.

 

Have been saying Mittelstadt was better at battling for pucks than people were giving him credit for a year ago.  This isn't something particularly new.

Also, his moving the puck into traffic which was a big part of his game in college and when he 1st got to the NHL was pretty well beaten out of him by Taylor & Krueger around the time he was shipped down to Ra-cha-cha.  That wasn't improved last year, that had improved long before that.  His issues early last year weren't with moving the puck into traffic; they were with moving the puck to the boards, or winning it in a batttle there, and getting double teamed with no way to get the puck out of there with the Sabres maintaining control.

After he got Jost onto his line, he stopped getting bottled up along the boards.  And as the season advanced, so did Mittelstadt's willingness to carry the puck away from the boards when he wasn't already at the goal line.  (Which was pretty much the only place he'd start to bring it out to the higher danger areas.)  But now, instead of trying to beat 3 guys heading to the phone booth, he more often than not passes it when he approaches that phone booth.  

Is he incredible?  No.  But is he better than people thought he was in seasons prior?  Ab-so-friggin'-lute-ly.  Personally see him as a 2C with competent W's who can play up without getting overmatched provided his linemates aren't themselves overmatched.  Believe he can drive play, but not necessarily drive a line.  (Which is why he isn't a 1C.)

And will admit it is strange reading more than a handful of people saying Mittelstadt might be competent or even actually good.  Which is great.  People being willing to change their opinions when conditions/situations change is an awesome thing.

[nfreeman]

24 minutes ago, Curt said:

Why are you focusing on goals for a players whose strengths are playmaking a puck possession?

And listing out point totals while ignoring the number of games played?  Commonnmann 

His point production for his 5 NHL  seasons:

Pts/Game: 0.32, 0.29, 0.54, 0.48, 0.72

Pts/60: 1.4, 1.4, 2.0, 1.8, 2.7

Pts/60 ES: 1.0, 1.2, 1.5, 1.4, 2.3

Looks like an upward trajectory to me.

I agree it's an upward trajectory.  My point was simply that he hadn't really done anything to inspire confidence prior to the 2nd half of last season.

As for point totals and GP -- the problem with pts/game is that this can be distorted when the sample size is small -- ie a few garbage-time assists in a 22-game span when the team is running for the bus can give rise to the claim that he was a good player.

 

23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not one comment by me or anyone else said he has been good all along.  All we have said is that he has made significant and nearly constant progress since being sentdown.  The numbers bear this out. 

Also showing point totals without context is also a bit disingenuous.  Scoring 22 pts in 41 games is a 44 pt pace.  Putting up 19 pts in 40 games (a 39 pt pace) with a hand injury is proper context.  

Except that when I said he's had one good half-season in the NHL, you said:

Quote

That's completely untrue.  He was our best forward after Granato took over (17 pts in the last 22 games that season) and last season he was good all year and had a great in the 2nd half. 

 

 

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Have been saying Mittelstadt was better at battling for pucks than people were giving him credit for a year ago.  This isn't something particularly new.

Also, his moving the puck into traffic which was a big part of his game in college and when he 1st got to the NHL was pretty well beaten out of him by Taylor & Krueger around the time he was shipped down to Ra-cha-cha.  That wasn't improved last year, that had improved long before that.  His issues early last year weren't with moving the puck into traffic; they were with moving the puck to the boards, or winning it in a batttle there, and getting double teamed with no way to get the puck out of there with the Sabres maintaining control.

After he got Jost onto his line, he stopped getting bottled up along the boards.  And as the season advanced, so did Mittelstadt's willingness to carry the puck away from the boards when he wasn't already at the goal line.  (Which was pretty much the only place he'd start to bring it out to the higher danger areas.)  But now, instead of trying to beat 3 guys heading to the phone booth, he more often than not passes it when he approaches that phone booth.  

Is he incredible?  No.  But is he better than people thought he was in seasons prior?  Ab-so-friggin'-lute-ly.  Personally see him as a 2C with competent W's who can play up without getting overmatched provided his linemates aren't themselves overmatched.  Believe he can drive play, but not necessarily drive a line.  (Which is why he isn't a 1C.)

And will admit it is strange reading more than a handful of people saying Mittelstadt might be competent or even actually good.  Which is great.  People being willing to change their opinions when conditions/situations change is an awesome thing.

Well, YMMV, but I do not agree at all with the first bolded.  I thought he was terrible at this until the 2nd half of last season and recall posting about it in GDTs last year.

I am cautiously optimistic that you are right about the 2nd bolded.

 

[French Collection]

Having Mitts compete with Cozens for ice time is a good thing.

The only issue might be $$, if they both end up being 60-75 point guys. The C spine will be awesome but tough to afford.

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

So he put up some garbage-time stats for a rock-bottom team as they ran for the bus a couple of years ago, and that means he was a good player at that time?  Even though the next season, he had 6 goals in 40 games?

His point production in his 4 NHL seasons before last year:  25, 9, 22, 19.

Last year, he had 1 goal in October, 2 in December, 0 in January and 1 in March.

Again:  he looked like he had finally arrived by the stretch run last year.  That is potentially a very promising development for the team.  But it is pure #hammymath to claim that he's been a good player all along.

 

 

 

37 minutes ago, Curt said:

I have to agree with @GASabresIUFAN on this one.

I think Mitts has shown fairly steady improvement, interrupted by periodic injuries.  His first two years, he was pretty terrible, the next two he was decent, then last season he was better than decent.

This ^^^

I think Freeman’s take, while factual, is missing some context.

Mitts did not play poorly then pile points in garbage time 3 years ago, he was marginalized by a ***** coach who squandered the talents of many players during that season’s first half, then he started to blossom under a good coach.

Two years ago, he was hurt in the very first game of the season, missed a ton of action, and never fully recovered.

And last year his “slow” start still represented a “good” player. And his finish wasn’t just good, it was excellent.

As @GASabresIUFAN points out, this a three-year journey of steady improvement through adversity, not 2 1/2 years of poor play followed by a surprising 1/2 season leap.

It’s a testament to his perseverance and Granato’s coaching.

If the Sabres make a leap this year, Mittelstadt will almost certainly be a big reason why.

 

 

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Having Mitts compete with Cozens for ice time is a good thing.

The only issue might be $$, if they both end up being 60-75 point guys. The C spine will be awesome but tough to afford.

True.  But having 2 D locked up for big bucks a 3rd locked up for moderate bucks, 3 C's for kind of big bucks (all 3 combined will be under $22MM probably about $20MM), and an all world goalie eventually locked up for big bucks at least has your money getting spent in the right areas.  They'll still be able to afford a pretty good supporting cast around that.

[Curt]

19 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree it's an upward trajectory.  My point was simply that he hadn't really done anything to inspire confidence prior to the 2nd half of last season.

As for point totals and GP -- the problem with pts/game is that this can be distorted when the sample size is small -- ie a few garbage-time assists in a 22-game span when the team is running for the bus can give rise to the claim that he was a good player.

I mean, I guess it depends on what you mean by “inspire confidence“.  Did it inspire confidence that he was gradually improving as a player over the course of 3-4 years?

I think everyone would agree that last year’s 2nd half was the best he has played, but you kind of made it sound like he was basically the same, kinda crappy player for 4 1/2 years, then had a really good 1/2 season, and that seems kind of fluky.

I’m saying that he showed a fair amount of gradual improvement over 4 1/2 years, then had a really good 1/2 season, and it doesn’t seem completely flukey.

The truth is that he probably isn’t going to be the guy from last season’s 2nd half going forward, because if you take any player’s best half season from a 5 year sample, they probably aren’t going to live up to that over the long term.  However, I think he will be a pretty good middle-6 player going forward.

As for point totals and GP, if I have to choose between raw point totals, without GP, and Pts/game, I’d say that pts/game is much more useful to analyze.  That’s all I was saying.

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

Again, I'm comfortable in predicting that this same player who scored 28 goals last year will score at least 25 goals this season.  I'm also comfortable in saying that like Skinner, he will put more effort into the defensive side of the game. He, like Skinner, will not be accomplished at that side of the game but the effort will be more apparent. 

I heard Lance Lysowski's take on VO this morning on NHL Radio and it's similar to yours.  He basically sees VO as not necessarily a piece of the future, but someone who is stinging from getting benched during the late run last year and will be motivated to improve the areas of his game needed to earn more ice time.

[French Collection]

3 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I heard Lance Lysowski's take on VO this morning on NHL Radio and it's similar to yours.  He basically sees VO as not necessarily a piece of the future, but someone who is stinging from getting benched during the late run last year and will be motivated to improve the areas of his game needed to earn more ice time.

I’m one of the trade VO guys but I also try to be a glass half full type of person. The only positive I can think of with him is that he is a pending UFA and that usually means career years for lots of guys.

He needs to elevate his game to get the big $$ and a decent role somewhere else.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Also, his moving the puck into traffic which was a big part of his game in college and when he 1st got to the NHL was pretty well beaten out of him

I'm not sure I agree.  I think he still carries into traffic, but he does it now to positive effect:  in drawing defenders to him he's setting up a feed to an open man.  I think it took a while for him to put it all together and realize it wasn't enough just to push into offensive zone, that it was useless unless he was able to feed the puck back to an open Sabre.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

This ^^^

I think Freeman’s take, while factual, is missing some context.

Mitts did not play poorly then pile points in garbage time 3 years ago, he was marginalized by a ***** coach who squandered the talents of many players during that season’s first half, then he started to blossom under a good coach.

Two years ago, he was hurt in the very first game of the season, missed a ton of action, and never fully recovered.

And last year his “slow” start still represented a “good” player. And his finish wasn’t just good, it was excellent.

As @GASabresIUFAN points out, this a three-year journey of steady improvement through adversity, not 2 1/2 years of poor play followed by a surprising 1/2 season leap.

It’s a testament to his perseverance and Granato’s coaching.

If the Sabres make a leap this year, Mittelstadt will almost certainly be a big reason why.

I agree with most of this, but I think "steady improvement" is a bit generous (although there was certainly plenty of adversity).  Before last season I was far from convinced that he was going to develop into an effective NHL player, and I don't think I was alone in that assessment. 

 

43 minutes ago, Curt said:

I mean, I guess it depends on what you mean by “inspire confidence“.  Did it inspire confidence that he was gradually improving as a player over the course of 3-4 years?

I think everyone would agree that last year’s 2nd half was the best he has played, but you kind of made it sound like he was basically the same, kinda crappy player for 4 1/2 years, then had a really good 1/2 season, and that seems kind of fluky.

I’m saying that he showed a fair amount of gradual improvement over 4 1/2 years, then had a really good 1/2 season, and it doesn’t seem completely flukey.

The truth is that he probably isn’t going to be the guy from last season’s 2nd half going forward, because if you take any player’s best half season from a 5 year sample, they probably aren’t going to live up to that over the long term.  However, I think he will be a pretty good middle-6 player going forward.

As for point totals and GP, if I have to choose between raw point totals, without GP, and Pts/game, I’d say that pts/game is much more useful to analyze.  That’s all I was saying.

I was originally responding to the victory lap being taken about being right all along about Mitts -- that is the "inspire confidence" I was referring to.

Overall he was much better last year than ever before in his career.  I think he took a substantial leap, and that it wasn't the logical culmination of steady improvement -- although it's fair to note that his ability to improve steadily was substantially impaired by injury, poor coaching and general dysfunction.  In any case, it was a full season, and he improved substantially over the course of the season, and his coach believes in him, so I don't think it was a fluke.  I'm just not ready yet to proclaim him as a rock-solid #2C or #3C.

[Brawndo]

https://x.com/SabresPR/status/1709629488609292382?s=20
 

Kulich, Rosen and Murray sent to Rochester 

 

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

The sentiment that Mitts is a tough winner of puck battles has been expressed a fair amount here recently.  I'm here to take exception.  IMHO he's gone from completely ineffective in this regard to average.  He's far from some monster on the boards who comes out of every scrum with the puck.

As for his historical issues, there have been quite a few, but IMHO the biggest issue was consistently poor decision-making with the puck.  He'd get it in the neutral zone and skate it inexplicably into traffic, pass it where his teammate wasn't or think he could beat a defender one-on-one and immediately lose the puck to the defender.  That issue improved, like the rest of his game, in the 2nd half of last season.  Will that improvement continue?  DM seems to think so.

We'll see.

 

First, it's way too soon for the victory lap on Mitts.  He's played 5 NHL seasons and had one good half-season.  His early years were spent in a highly dysfunctional environment, and I think everyone runs his own race, so I think the Sabres were right not to give up on him.  I kinda expect him to continue to improve -- but there will be more pressure on him and the entire team this year.  He may or may not be up to the task.

As for a contract, I could've missed it, but I don't think KA has said anything about an extension for Mitts, who is an RFA after this season -- unlike Power and Dahlin, whom KA has publicly stated the team is trying to sign.  I'd guess that KA wants to sign Mitts, but at a fairly limited number in term and AAV, and probably not until Power and Dahlin are done.

You are correct that there hasn't been much public discussion about a Mitt's contract from the organization in contrast to the Dahlin contract negotiation. I wouldn't make any judgments from the organizational silence. 

As others have noted, Mitts has gotten better as he has gained more experience. That shouldn't be a surprise. But the biggest revelation and pleasant surprise that happened last year is when he was elevated to the top line when Tage was ailing. Without question, for that short duration, Mitts played like a genuine first line center. And his stats supported that assessment. Was that sample size too small to make a judgment on the caliber of player he is? Maybe. But it was a pleasant surprise that indicated the level of player he is, especially when playing with better talent around him. 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I'm not sure I agree.  I think he still carries into traffic, but he does it now to positive effect:  in drawing defenders to him he's setting up a feed to an open man.  I think it took a while for him to put it all together and realize it wasn't enough just to push into offensive zone, that it was useless unless he was able to feed the puck back to an open Sabre.

Think we're likely quibbling over the definition of "carry it into traffic."  When he was in college and at the WJC's, he would skate the puck into 2-3 defenders and still be able to make a play.  He tried doing that at the NHL level with not good results.  That is what was beaten out of him.

He shied from even bringing the puck towards the center of the ice early this season much less trying to beat several defenders doing so.

He's got a fair amount of his confidence back, but he still isn't getting to the point often of having 2 - 3 defenders draped on him.  He's getting rid of the puck before they get to that point.  Beating a defender that has engaged and getting one drawing towards him is one thing.  Actually going THROUGH 3 guys at once is something he seems to leave to the McDavids and He Daddy Giraffes of the league.

And IMHO, that's a good thing that he's at that point.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

https://x.com/SabresPR/status/1709629488609292382?s=20
 

Kulich, Rosen and Murray sent to Rochester 

 

Not much of a surprise.  Biro, Rousek, and Benson fighting for the last roster spot with Benson in the lead?

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

He's getting rid of the puck before they get to that point.

Yep, we're quibbling.  You're spot on there though.

[Doohicksie]

7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Before last season I was far from convinced that he was going to develop into an effective NHL player

Remember, he started 2021-22 as the 1C before getting hurt in the first game and opening the door for Tage.  Less that injury, he might still be 1C and we would have all be raging about him.

[LabattBlue]

How many players are left in camp?

[Taro T]

Just now, LabattBlue said:

How many players are left in camp?

Pretty sure 3 goalies, 15 F's (not including injured Quinn and Savoie), and 9 D (the starting 6 plus Stillman, Clague, and Johnson).  Don't believe anybody else is still up with the 3 Amerk F's getting sent down this afternoon.

[Doohicksie]

11 hours ago, nfreeman said:

IMHO he's gone from completely ineffective in this regard to average.

Perhaps he's only average in puck battles, but when he does secure the puck he's doing good things with it.

 

[dudacek]

42 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Pretty sure 3 goalies, 15 F's (not including injured Quinn and Savoie), and 9 D (the starting 6 plus Stillman, Clague, and Johnson).  Don't believe anybody else is still up with the 3 Amerk F's getting sent down this afternoon.

10D (you forgot Bryson)

5 more cuts coming out of Comrie, UPL, Benson, Rousek, Biro, Clague, Johnson, Stillman and Bryson.

If they can’t trade Comrie or UPL before cutdown day, I’m fully expecting Johnson, Clague, Rousek and Biro to be sent down, and a defenceman put on IR so they can keep both and Bryson.

[Brawndo]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

10D (you forgot Bryson)

5 more cuts coming out of Comrie, UPL, Benson, Rousek, Biro, Clague, Johnson, Stillman and Bryson.

If they can’t trade Comrie or UPL before cutdown day, I’m fully expecting Johnson, Clague, Rousek and Biro to be sent down, and a defenceman put on IR so they can keep both and Bryson.

If they IR Eric Johnson, I imagine Ryan Johnson stays up as the 6th Defender, with Stillman the 7th

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Brawndo said:

If they IR Eric Johnson, I imagine Ryan Johnson stays up as the 6th Defender, with Stillman the 7th

You thinking Johnson has already made Bryson redundant in their minds?

[Turbo44]

Bryson will be sent to Rochester - I don’t see anyone claiming him and his $1.8m salary. If so, it’s a gift

[Brawndo]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

You thinking Johnson has already made Bryson redundant in their minds?

I do.  Even if he goes to Rochester, RJ is the first call up for an injury on the blueline