Training Camp Roster Moves

[Taro T]

26 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I hope if Greenway ends up on a top 6 line, that he doesn't bring down the offensive capabilities of his line mates.  I like him much more in a bottom 6 role.

Really don't see this team having a top 6 and a bottom 6.  They're going to have 3 scoring lines and a defense 1st line that should be able to pot a few of their own.

So Greenway playing with either Mittelstadt or Cozens will result in essentially the same ice time as he would with the other.  Just at home, when Granato has the last change he'll likely face slightly tougher matchups and on the road when he doesn't he'll likely face slightly easier matchups.  (Just expecting opposing coaches to try to test the Cozens line early if his W's are a 2nd year Peterka and a 1 way Olofsson.  Expecting they'll be up for it.  But if Tuch is on Mitts line, that is the line that will be treated as the 2nd line.  (Definitely by the opponents, possibly by Granato; he seems to worry less about matchups than other coaches do, but it'll be interesting if that still holds now that the primary goal is winning and development is the 2ndary goal.)

[steveoath]

Forgot Tampa only has JJ. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Really don't see this team having a top 6 and a bottom 6.  They're going to have 3 scoring lines and a defense 1st line that should be able to pot a few of their own.

I'm thinking a top 9 and a bottom 3.  There will also be situational line changes such at Tuch moving back to the top line when we are trailing in the 3rd and DG shortens his bench.

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

Looking only at teams with cap space and then narrowing it down I came up with 3 teams who might claim him:

- Chicago's current backup is waivers exempt and has 18 games NHL experience with basically UPL numbers.

- CBJ just claimed Spencer Martin which suggests to me they're going to waive Tarasov (I don't see them waiving Merzlikins). UPL is probably an upgrade on Spencer Martin.

- Tampa: UPL is an upgrade over Jonas Johansson who is the starter now that Vasi is out. In the very least, UPL is an upgrade over the backup who washed out of the AHL 3 years ago before making a comeback this year.

Still expect if Tampa is interested they might be willing to trade for him.  Will depend upon what other goalies are expected to be sent down (UPL certainly won't be the only waiver eligible guy getting sent down, but there won't be many that are intriguing to GMs), but if UPL is Tampa's target could see them offering a 3rd for him to make sure they don't have to worry about 18 other teams ahead of them putting in a claim.  (Buffalo's ahead of them too, but obviously won't be putting a claim in on him themselves.)

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm thinking a top 9 and a bottom 3.  There will also be situational line changes such at Tuch moving back to the top line when we are trailing in the 3rd and DG shortens his bench.

Ummm, Isn't that what 3 scoring lines and a non-scoring line is?  🤔

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Ummm, Isn't that what 3 scoring lines and a non-scoring line is?  🤔

Sorry, I left out the word "also".

[LGR4GM]

I don't personally think anyone has interest in UPL. I certainly don't think you'll get a 3rd for him. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't personally think anyone has interest in UPL. I certainly don't think you'll get a 3rd for him. 

Probably not.  

Just saying that IF they're going to get anything for him, it'll be from a team like Tampa that is pretty far back in the waiver claim queue.

And still am hoping at this point that UPL is the guy they try to sneak through waivers but fear it'll be Comrie.  Comrie isn't ever going to be a #1 (at least not a reasonable one) but he can be a reasonable 2.  UPL MIGHT POSSIBLY become a 1 someday, but right now he isn't IMHO a serviceable 2.  He needs to play too often to be the 2 and he's nowhere nearly good enough to get more than every 1/3 game.

[Brawndo]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think people are being a little unfair about VO.  Yes, the guy is allergic to two-way play, but so are Skinner, Thompson amongst other forwards in our lineup.  VO has also posted 20 or more goals in 3 of the last 4 seasons and we have also seen him play excellent overall hockey at points, especially when he got healthy in the second half of 21/22.  Yes, he was benched late last year, but he is playing for a new contract.  Don't be surprised if he has his best season ever.  His speed, great release, and decent passing make him a solid offensive fit with JJP and Cozens.  I suspect they'll be getting a lot of ozone starts.  Remember this is a line with two guys who can score 30+ and a young stud who is easily capable of scoring 20.  How many teams can boast a potential 3rd scoring line that can pot 80 goals?

The issue with VO is he drags down every line he was on last season, that’s what the data showed. 
 

And even though Skinner and TNT are allergic to defense they outscored their problems, Skinner was a +15 and TNT +4.

VO was a whopping -23, only surpassed by Bryson at -24

 

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't personally think anyone has interest in UPL. I certainly don't think you'll get a 3rd for him. 

The biggest selling point to a team like TB is there is no way he makes it to them in waiver priority and with them being so close to the cap, retaining 50 of his 837.5 Cap Hit could be very attractive to them 

[Doohicksie]

10 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Do not like VO with Cozens and Peterka 

Maybe not, but I like the concept of Greenway-Mittelstadt-Tuch.  They could turn out to be a punishing line that scores a lot of goals.

[RochesterExpat]

I think most people just don’t want VO on any line, so any line he’s on is automatically unattractive.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

VO was a whopping -23, only surpassed by Bryson at -24

How much of that was VO and how much was bad D and bad goaltending?  The +\- story is never simple.  Remember Vanek lead the league in +/- (+47) the year after he was -11.  Do I think VO will ever be a good 2-way player? No, but he is committed to improving and coupled with improved D and goaltending his mistakes will end up less frequently in the back of the net.  

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How much of that was VO and how much was bad D and bad goaltending?  The +\- story is never simple.  Remember Vanek lead the league in +/- (+47) the year after he was -11.  Do I think VO will ever be a good 2-way player? No, but he is committed to improving and coupled with improved D and goaltending his mistakes will end up less frequently in the back of the net.  

Jost and Mitts were his most common line mates they were minus nine and eight respectively. 

The eye test and analytics match for VO. 

The Sabres as a team expected goals per 60 minutes(xGF/60)drops 15% when VO is on the ice, even the PP is slightly worse with him on the ice. 
 

There is data comparing JJP-Cozens with Quinn and VO, it’s a smaller small size with VO, but it’s ugly nonetheless. 
 

The line with VO has a decrease of 26% in (xGF/60) compared to with Quinn.

The line with VO has an increase of 26% in expected goals against per 60 compared to Quinn. 
 

This shows two things, Quinn is a heck of a player who will be missed and utilizing VO on His Present Practice Line with Cozens and JJP runs a very high risk of neutralizing any effectiveness of this line.

By the age of 28 forwards in particular are the player they are going to be so improvement would be the exception not the norm 

[Marvin]

Does covering up Olofsson's weaknesses by putting him out there with Girgensons and Okposo make sense?  They create chances that they usually can not cash in, so VO might be useful there while having them compensate for his shortcomings.

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Jost and Mitts were his most common line mates they were minus nine and eight respectively. 

The eye test and analytics match for VO. 

The Sabres as a team expected goals per 60 minutes(xGF/60)drops 15% when VO is on the ice, even the PP is slightly worse with him on the ice. 
 

There is data comparing JJP-Cozens with Quinn and VO, it’s a smaller small size with VO, but it’s ugly nonetheless. 
 

The line with VO has a decrease of 26% in (xGF/60) compared to with Quinn.

The line with VO has an increase of 26% in expected goals against per 60 compared to Quinn. 
 

This shows two things, Quinn is a heck of a player who will be missed and utilizing VO on His Present Practice Line with Cozens and JJP runs a very high risk of neutralizing any effectiveness of this line.

By the age of 28 forwards in particular are the player they are going to be so improvement would be the exception not the norm 

We've seen nothing this preseason to think olofsson has improved either. Also the points here really show how undervalued Quinn is if anyone thinks VO can be plugged into his spot. 

[French Collection]

7 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Jost and Mitts were his most common line mates they were minus nine and eight respectively. 

The eye test and analytics match for VO. 

The Sabres as a team expected goals per 60 minutes(xGF/60)drops 15% when VO is on the ice, even the PP is slightly worse with him on the ice. 
 

There is data comparing JJP-Cozens with Quinn and VO, it’s a smaller small size with VO, but it’s ugly nonetheless. 
 

The line with VO has a decrease of 26% in (xGF/60) compared to with Quinn.

The line with VO has an increase of 26% in expected goals against per 60 compared to Quinn. 
 

This shows two things, Quinn is a heck of a player who will be missed and utilizing VO on His Present Practice Line with Cozens and JJP runs a very high risk of neutralizing any effectiveness of this line.

By the age of 28 forwards in particular are the player they are going to be so improvement would be the exception not the norm 

Thanks for this, confirms my eye test and why VO is my whipping boy for the forwards. Bryson probably has similar numbers for the D.

Love Quinn, he will help for the playoff push.

[Doohicksie]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How much of that was VO and how much was bad D and bad goaltending?  The +\- story is never simple.  Remember Vanek lead the league in +/- (+47) the year after he was -11.  Do I think VO will ever be a good 2-way player? No, but he is committed to improving and coupled with improved D and goaltending his mistakes will end up less frequently in the back of the net.  

After his first 20 goal season under Krueger when he was -1, VO's been pretty consistently about -20 in the +/-.  In that season (when the Sabres really sucked, incidentally), our worst +/- players were Skinner and Reino.  Best was Mountour.

I wonder what a deeper dive comparing 2019-20 Jeff Skinner to 2022-23 Victor Olofsson would yield?

Is VO's issue deployment?  The system versus his skill set?

[Doohicksie]

7 hours ago, Marvin said:

Does covering up Olofsson's weaknesses by putting him out there with Girgensons and Okposo make sense?  They create chances that they usually can not cash in, so VO might be useful there while having them compensate for his shortcomings.

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, Marvin said:

Does covering up Olofsson's weaknesses by putting him out there with Girgensons and Okposo make sense?  They create chances that they usually can not cash in, so VO might be useful there while having them compensate for his shortcomings.

No. It would be a very incongruous fit. The original line that included Krebs had a more defensive role that it executed well. I would rather see VO playing with a center who will give him some scoring chances. Whatever faults he has on the defensive side of the ice it still should be recognize that he can shoot and score goals. 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

After his first 20 goal season under Krueger when he was -1, VO's been pretty consistently about -20 in the +/-.  In that season (when the Sabres really sucked, incidentally), our worst +/- players were Skinner and Reino.  Best was Mountour.

I wonder what a deeper dive comparing 2019-20 Jeff Skinner to 2022-23 Victor Olofsson would yield?

Is VO's issue deployment?  The system versus his skill set?

His issue is he is a lazy two way player.  He avoids contact and his hockey sense is not great.  
Nice shot, quick release, but does not drive the play either.  A finisher with a limited game. 
 

You can’t put him on a checking line either.  A real checking line has to have all three players committed to two way, 200 foot hockey.  

[French Collection]

48 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

His issue is he is a lazy two way player.  He avoids contact and his hockey sense is not great.  
Nice shot, quick release, but does not drive the play either.  A finisher with a limited game. 
 

You can’t put him on a checking line either.  A real checking line has to have all three players committed to two way, 200 foot hockey.  

DG constantly talks about how players compete, which isn’t VO’s game. My eye tells me he wins about 10% of 50/50 pucks. That’s my problem with him, he doesn’t work as hard as most, without the puck.

[K-9]

12 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

I think most people just don’t want VO on any line, so any line he’s on is automatically unattractive.

Yep. And for good reason. 

[JohnC]

I'm going to make a prediction that I know will be skewered for. VO is going to be a 25-30 goal scorer and have a good year for us. He's become the same type of whipping boy that was directed toward Mitts a year or two ago. I'm not claiming that he will be a part of this team beyond this year. But, as with Mitts, he is going to prove that the persistent scorn that he gets here will be proven to be off base. 

If Quinn didn't get hurt I would have a different view on his status. But because of that tough injury he will get an opportunity to show that he is an asset for this team. VO knows very well that there is a side of his game that he has to be more diligent about. He will do it and the critics will fade away. 

[K-9]

46 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm going to make a prediction that I know will be skewered for. VO is going to be a 25-30 goal scorer and have a good year for us. He's become the same type of whipping boy that was directed toward Mitts a year or two ago. I'm not claiming that he will be a part of this team beyond this year. But, as with Mitts, he is going to prove that the persistent scorn that he gets here will be proven to be off base. 

If Quinn didn't get hurt I would have a different view on his status. But because of that tough injury he will get an opportunity to show that he is an asset for this team. VO knows very well that there is a side of his game that he has to be more diligent about. He will do it and the critics will fade away. 

I wish I shared your optimism. It’s ironic that VO is facing the same criticism as Mitts did because from the moment Mitts and VO were separated last season, Casey’s game took off and he never looked back while VO continued to prove to be a liability to whatever line mates he was paired with, ultimately leading to him seeing the press box for a few games. 

As has been pointed out by others, VO at age 28 is fully baked and hasn’t shown any indication that he has improved upon his deficiencies so far this preseason.

Hoping for VO to just all of a sudden be responsible in his own end and stronger along the boards is unrealistic at this stage of his career. IMO, he has become what KA refers to as a “blocker” of younger, better talent. 

[LabattBlue]

I open this thread to see roster moves, all I see is tired, old, and repeated VO talk. 👎🏻

Edited October 3, 2023 by LabattBlue

[K-9]

3 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I open this thread to see roster moves, all I see is tired, old, and repeated VO talk. 👎🏻

I agree. Let’s talk about Zach Benson making this team instead.