Observations and wild theories from camp, Day 1

[dudacek]

 

Somebody posted earlier about being excited about seeing how they lined up on Day 1, just to get a glimpse inside Donnie's mind.

Now you know what they say about the best-laid plans, but I think we did get a glimpse into what the coach is thinking.

1) Dahlin/Clifton, Power/Jokiharju, Samuelsson/Johnson

I think this one probably caught most of us off-guard; don't recall many people thinking Clifton would be skating with the franchise and nobody was champing for more Owen and Henri.

But the more I looked at it, the more it becomes clear that Mule and Johnson is a clear D-zone pairing and OP/HJ is a clear O-zone pairing, with Ras and Clifton very comfortable going either way. To be clear, I suspect there is going to be a lot of mix and match with this group, Donnie said as much. But we are going to see a much more balanced rotation back there when healthy. And there's lot of utility there for matchups if he sticks with this as a base.

And of course there is the obvious L/R combinations. Maybe the opportunity for saying "i told you so" might even bring @Thorny back (hope so).

2) Bryson/Stillman Ryan Johnson/Clague

There's your 4 spare defencemen, all battling with each other for one or 2 spots. Each is being given an equal opportunity, unsupported by a strong partner. May the best man/men win.

3) Tage/Skinner, Cozens/Peterka, Mitts/Tuch

This, by far, was the most intriguing meatball Donnie gave us. I've been convinced Krebs was going to be the 3C and Mitts was going to get moved to the wing. Instead, it looks like the coach is considering 3 scoring lines built around 3 duos known to work well together. If the 3rd wheels step up, this could be exciting.

4) Krebs Girgensons Okposo

Each of these guys got his own line, tied predominantly to AHL vets with outside roster shots. I'm reading this as Granato knowing exactly what he has in each of them, so he's using them to set the tone and test drive guys for the 13th forward and depth call-up roles. It makes me reasonably confident that the trio will be reunited come opening night as his go-to shutdown unit.

5) Greenway Jost Olofsson

Here are your misfit toys, the trio who will definitely be on the starting roster – likely mixed and matched with the three top offensive duos above —  it's just not clear yet exactly where. They get to skate together to start with an equal opportunity and will get rotated into their eventual homes as camp progresses.

6) Benson, Kulich Rosen

I honestly didn't see any of these guys on the roster to start the year, but goddamn are they apparently going to get a fair chance. Each one is apparently getting a real shot to replace Quinn in the lineup as they ride shotgun with the Sabres top offensive talents. Maybe one of them will actually take advantage and force his way in.

I'm very excited by what I'm seeing. What did you guys think?

Edited September 21, 2023 by dudacek

[MBD]

I assume the goalie for the first group was Levi?

[Marvin]

8 minutes ago, MBD said:

I assume the goalie for the first group was Levi?

With Comrie too?

[pastajoe]

9 minutes ago, Marvin said:

With Comrie too?

And Houser.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I wouldn’t read anything into first day pairings or lines.  This is a lineup about getting to see how the top prospects look with established players not about who will be playing with whom when the season begins.

We will get a better feel for the end product once some of the kids start getting sent down or returned to their junior teams.

I do agree that the D pairings were a little surprising and I do see the basis for these pairings, but I worry Clifton isn’t ready for 24 minutes a game.

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I wouldn’t read anything into first day pairings or lines.  This is a lineup about getting to see how the top prospects look with established players not about who will be playing with whom when the season begins.

We will get a better feel for the end product once some of the kids start getting sent down or returned to their junior teams.

I do agree that the D pairings were a little surprising and I do see the basis for these pairings, but I worry Clifton isn’t ready for 24 minutes a game.

The entire thing is structured around giving Kulich, Rosen and Benson a taste of NHL linemates, even though they are likely to be sent down? And where the vets are is mostly meaningless?

Seems like an utter waste of time for an event designed to get a team ready for the season.

I mean, I agree things will change and they will try different things, but I would hope Donnie is approaching every practice with more purpose than mostly random.

These guys have their legs, they’ve been skating together for weeks.

Edited September 21, 2023 by dudacek

[Derrico]

Rollin Benson alongside Skinner and Thompson??

Giddy up!!

[Weave]

I like the methodology.  It’s plausible.  But I’m not reading anything into anything before the first group of players get sent to Amerks camp.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

Somebody posted earlier about being excited about seeing how they lined up on Day 1, just to get a glimpse inside Donnie's mind.

Now you now what they say about the best-laid plans, but I think we did get a glimpse into what the coach is thinking.

1) Dahlin/Clifton, Power/Jokiharju, Samuelsson/Johnson

I think this one probably caught most of us off-guard; don't recall many people thinking Clifton would be skating with the franchise and nobody was champing for more Owen and Henri.

But the more I looked at it, the more it becomes clear that Mule and Johnson is a clear D-zone pairing and OP/HJ is a clear O-zone pairing, with Ras and Clifton very comfortable going either way. To be clear, I suspect there is going to be a lot of mix and match with this group, Donnie said as much. But we are going to see a much more balanced rotation back there when healthy. And there's lot of utility there for matchups if he sticks with this as a base.

And of course there is the obvious L/R combinations. Maybe the opportunity for saying "i told you so" might even bring @Thorny back (hope so).

2) Bryson/Stillman Ryan Johnson/Clague

There's your 4 spare defencemen, all battling with each other for one or 2 spots. Each is being given an equal opportunity, unsupported by a strong partner. May the best man/men win.

3) Tage/Skinner, Cozens/Peterka, Mitts/Tuch

This, by far, was the most intriguing meatball Donnie gave us. I've been convinced Krebs was going to be the 3C and Mitts was going to get moved to the wing. Instead, it looks like the coach is considering 3 scoring lines built around 3 duos known to work well together. If the 3rd wheels step up, this could be exciting.

4) Krebs Girgensons Okposo

Each of these guys got his own line, tied predominantly to AHL vets with outside roster shots. I'm reading this as Granato knowing exactly what he has in each of them, so he's using them to set the tone and test drive guys for the 13th forward and depth call-up roles. It makes me reasonably confident that the trio will be reunited come opening night as his go-to shutdown unit.

5) Greenway Jost Olofsson

Here are your misfit toys, the trio who will definitely be on the starting roster – likely mixed and matched with the three top offensive duos above —  it's just not clear yet exactly where. They get to skate together to start with an equal opportunity and will get rotated into their eventual homes as camp progresses.

6) Benson, Kulich Rosen

I honestly didn't see any of these guys on the roster to start the year, but goddamn are they apparently going to get a fair chance. Each one is apparently getting a real shot to replace Quinn in the lineup as they ride shotgun with the Sabres top offensive talents. Maybe one of them will actually take advantage and force his way in.

I'm very excited by what I'm seeing. What did you guys think?

Your takes all seem well thought out and reasonable.

Did not see Clifton getting a real shot with Dahlin, but here we are.  From all reports, he held his own on the B's top pairing waiting for McAvoy to be healthy.  He does bring significantly more offensive upside than Samuelsson does and at this point in both their respective careers is a better overall player.  Will be interesting to see how his chemistry and Ras' gel.

Have said my peace on the Power-Jokiharju pairing.  Will simply add for old times sake that Granato loves him some Jokiharju.  That and, IF Clifton and Ras work as a pairing, that is likely the best 2nd pairing they can come up with.  (Though would rather see Muel and Owen given a shot as he covers more of Power's weaknesses than Henri does IMHO.)

Muel and Johnson is an interesting pairing.  

Find it interesting that UPL would appear to have the upper hand in the competition to be Levi's backup.  (Presuming they're going with traditional 1, 3, 5 and 2, 4, 6 split of goalies in camp.)  Just hoping they keep an open mind and truly let the one that is performing better over the next 3 weeks win the competition.  They'll need that guy to be good for 30-35 games so they have to get it right (if there IS an actual right answer there to that particular framing of the question).

REALLY like that the 3 kids who've shown the most offensive upside are each apparently going to be given a chance to earn a spot.  Wonder which one was the odd man out were Savoie not injured.

Also find it interesting that Murray and Rousek (the 2 most likely of the Amerks to show they've earned a spot in the bottom 6 (read 4th line)) are getting to flank the likely 4C.  Which gives them the fairest opportunity to show what they have.

Might have to see when they'll be practicing again during camp and see if they're open to the public.  Could be a lof of fun to attend in person again after a few years off.  (Krueger closed the TC practices to the general public and didn't fit it into the schedule under Granato to even bother seeing if the public was allowed back again.)

[TheAud]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I do agree that the D pairings were a little surprising and I do see the basis for these pairings, but I worry Clifton isn’t ready for 24 minutes a game.

I know you know this but it's worth saying that Clifton won't see any PP time, dropping this to 20 minutes per game, which I would think is an expectation for him this year. 

Nonetheless Clifton with Dahlin as a regular pairing would surprise me too. 

[FrenchConnection44]

Fascinating with all this young talent.

I agree that this is not necessarily an indication of what it will be like come regular season.

I think this is the time to experiment with different lines and see what happens. Rather than being staid and getting stale. Plus they always need to switch things around during the year with players struggling or getting nicked so it’s useful to mix and match in camp to develop a comfort level. And, one never knows what kind of chemistry may develop with 2-3 players. So I suspect they want to try these guys with different mates and see what happens. 

I agree about the young guys in camp. Seems smart to want to see them on some of the big lines and see what happens. And I suspect they want the young guys to get a feel for what it takes to be a top player and playing alongside really good players will be an education for them. Help them perhaps develop faster. One or two may really shine. Hopefully. 

Tuch not being with Tage would be surprising come the regular season. But if it looks good in the preseason with him on another line I could see it. 

Defensively, barring some shock, the top 6 seem set. And it could be this current set of pairings is the way they want it to go - or hope. I could see it going that route. But also suspect they may switch around a bit. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[French Collection]

During DG’s nterview he mentioned the chemistry between Mitts and Tuch. He may want 3 scoring lines based on those three pairings to create difficult matchups for the opposition.

Benson, Kulich and Rosen must be loving these linemates. Savoie is in the stands drooling.

I think the D will move around some, there will be injuries and rest periods. Clifton may surprise and mesh well with Dahlin. Mule and EJ would be a shutdown and PK1 unit. Like many I want a better partner for Power but Joki can step up and do this.

[Doohicksie]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

3) Tage/Skinner, Cozens/Peterka, Mitts/Tuch

This, by far, was the most intriguing meatball Donnie gave us. I've been convinced Krebs was going to be the 3C and Mitts was going to get moved to the wing. Instead, it looks like the coach is considering 3 scoring lines built around 3 duos known to work well together. If the 3rd wheels step up, this could be exciting.

Mitts was the 1C coming out of camp in 2021.  The injury ruined that but without that injury Tage wouldn't have gotten the opportunity that broke him out.  But as last season wore on, Mitts started to show why Donny was so high on him.  If someone in 2017 said the Sabres would have three players worthy of 1C in 2023 and none would be named Eichel or Reinhart, you would have been laughed off the forum.  I think we're gonna see a strong bump up in Casey's performance this year.  I think Greenway/Mitts/Tuch could prove to be the scoring line that not only scores but dishes out punishment on other teams' top lines.

Still I think it's likely that come opening night, the top line will be Skinner/Tage/Tuch.

But there is so much potential with this group; if certain combos show chemistry this is gonna be a tough team to play against.

I like to think this team will earn the moniker of Donny Meatballs' Flying Circus for how much talent they will be putting out there.

[Doohicksie]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I worry Clifton isn’t ready for 24 minutes a game.

Clifton will play 20 minutes a game.  When it's shutdown time, a fresh Muel will be moved up from the third pairing.

[Doohicksie]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Seems like an utter waste of time for an event designed to get a team ready for the season.

I think as camp moves on you will see things come into focus.  But waste of time?  Certainly not.  They need to start getting the young talent ready for their possible callups.  They need to develop chemistry with NHL vets at NHL speed (or as close as they will come early in camp).  Donny's right to mix and match the lines though:  Find out where the chemistry is and ain't. 

[PerreaultForever]

I don't put too much stock in pairings and lines right now but I am interested in which side Clifton and Dahlin played. Both have played both. 

The thing I liked A LOT was listening to Granato say this season was about WINNING. This is what I wanted to hear. 

[nfreeman]

From the Athletic this morning:

Quote

Granato said he’d love to keep Mittelstadt at center.

Pretty interesting.  So maybe:

Skinner-TT-Tuch

JJP-Cozens-XXX

XXX-Mitts-Greenway

Zemgus-Krebs-KO

...with the candidates for the 2 open slots to include VO, Jost, Rousek, Rosen, Benson and Kulich

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

From the Athletic this morning:

Pretty interesting.  So maybe:

Skinner-TT-Tuch

JJP-Cozens-XXX

XXX-Mitts-Greenway

Zemgus-Krebs-KO

...with the candidates for the 2 open slots to include VO, Jost, Rousek, Rosen, Benson and Kulich

 

I saw the comment on Mitts as well.  Last season Mitts flourished centering the top line and playing wing on both the Cozens line and the top line.  He struggled on the 3rd line when he played without as talented of players.  A Rousek Mitts Greenway line looks ok on paper, but I wonder if it would cause Mitts the same problem as last year?

Fairburn also wrote the following in the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/4883295/2023/09/21/buffalo-sabres-tage-thompson-training-camp/

Quote

 

Casey Mittelstadt: Can he carry his strong finish into this season?

Casey Mittelstadt was one of Buffalo’s best players down the stretch last season. He had 17 points in the Sabres’ final 11 games and had at least one point in 10 of those games. When Tage Thompson had to miss some time, Mittelstadt centered the top line and flourished playing alongside Skinner and Alex Tuch. After struggling early in the season playing a third-line role, Mittelstadt ended with a career-high 59 points and played all 82 games. If he can carry that over into this season, a contract extension should be in his future. The biggest variable is whether Granato will put him back in a top-six role and allow his playmaking skills to shine with other talented players.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

From the Athletic this morning:

Pretty interesting.  So maybe:

Skinner-TT-Tuch

JJP-Cozens-XXX

XXX-Mitts-Greenway

Zemgus-Krebs-KO

...with the candidates for the 2 open slots to include VO, Jost, Rousek, Rosen, Benson and Kulich

 

 

Skinner Thompson XXX

XXX Mittelstadt Tuch

Peterka Cozens XXX

Girgensons Krebs Okposo

 

XXX = 3 of Quinn, Olofsson, Greenway, Jost, Rousek, Kulich, Rosen, Benson

if Peterka takes a step, that's a helluva rotation, no matter how the 3rd wheel shakes out.

Edited September 22, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Skinner Thompson XXX

XXX Mittelstadt Tuch

Peterka Cozens XXX

Girgensons Krebs Okposo

 

XXX = 3 of Quinn, Olofsson, Greenway, Jost, Rousek, Kulich, Rosen, Benson

I like this better, but how would you allocate VO, Greenway and Rousek?  VO feel like a square peg for a round hole. Greenway as Tuch’s replacement on the top line?

Edited September 22, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Mustache of God]

Don't break up Skinner - Thompson - Tuch.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Don't break up Skinner - Thompson - Tuch.

I think DG’s thought right now (subject to change of course) is that he has 3 top flight scoring centers in TNT, Cozens and Mitts and he wants to insure each one has at least one top flight winger to play with.  DG/KA believe they can therefore build 3 scoring lines which would make the Sabres extremely hard go defend.   The only problem, as I mentioned above, is how do you allocate VO, Greenway, and Rousek? 

Edited September 22, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I like this better, but how would you allocate VO, Greenway and Rousek?  VO feel like a square peg for a round hole. Greenway as Tuch’s replacement on the top line?

No one can replace Tuch on line one. That line obviously gets worse regardless; that's the price you pay for using him carry line 2.

When Quinn gets back, he slides in at his normal spot. I'd use Greenway's big body and defence with Tage and see if Mitts and Tuch can maximize Victor.

[matter2003]

18 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

Somebody posted earlier about being excited about seeing how they lined up on Day 1, just to get a glimpse inside Donnie's mind.

Now you know what they say about the best-laid plans, but I think we did get a glimpse into what the coach is thinking.

1) Dahlin/Clifton, Power/Jokiharju, Samuelsson/Johnson

I think this one probably caught most of us off-guard; don't recall many people thinking Clifton would be skating with the franchise and nobody was champing for more Owen and Henri.

But the more I looked at it, the more it becomes clear that Mule and Johnson is a clear D-zone pairing and OP/HJ is a clear O-zone pairing, with Ras and Clifton very comfortable going either way. To be clear, I suspect there is going to be a lot of mix and match with this group, Donnie said as much. But we are going to see a much more balanced rotation back there when healthy. And there's lot of utility there for matchups if he sticks with this as a base.

And of course there is the obvious L/R combinations. Maybe the opportunity for saying "i told you so" might even bring @Thorny back (hope so).

2) Bryson/Stillman Ryan Johnson/Clague

There's your 4 spare defencemen, all battling with each other for one or 2 spots. Each is being given an equal opportunity, unsupported by a strong partner. May the best man/men win.

3) Tage/Skinner, Cozens/Peterka, Mitts/Tuch

This, by far, was the most intriguing meatball Donnie gave us. I've been convinced Krebs was going to be the 3C and Mitts was going to get moved to the wing. Instead, it looks like the coach is considering 3 scoring lines built around 3 duos known to work well together. If the 3rd wheels step up, this could be exciting.

4) Krebs Girgensons Okposo

Each of these guys got his own line, tied predominantly to AHL vets with outside roster shots. I'm reading this as Granato knowing exactly what he has in each of them, so he's using them to set the tone and test drive guys for the 13th forward and depth call-up roles. It makes me reasonably confident that the trio will be reunited come opening night as his go-to shutdown unit.

5) Greenway Jost Olofsson

Here are your misfit toys, the trio who will definitely be on the starting roster – likely mixed and matched with the three top offensive duos above —  it's just not clear yet exactly where. They get to skate together to start with an equal opportunity and will get rotated into their eventual homes as camp progresses.

6) Benson, Kulich Rosen

I honestly didn't see any of these guys on the roster to start the year, but goddamn are they apparently going to get a fair chance. Each one is apparently getting a real shot to replace Quinn in the lineup as they ride shotgun with the Sabres top offensive talents. Maybe one of them will actually take advantage and force his way in.

I'm very excited by what I'm seeing. What did you guys think?

 

It's the franchise and I'm shining now...

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

Skinner Thompson XXX

XXX Mittelstadt Tuch

Peterka Cozens XXX

Girgensons Krebs Okposo

 

XXX = 3 of Quinn, Olofsson, Greenway, Jost, Rousek, Kulich, Rosen, Benson

if Peterka takes a step, that's a helluva rotation, no matter how the 3rd wheel shakes out.

Until Quinn is healthy, should Granato keep his "pairs" together would expect Greenway to literally watch Thompson's back; Olofsson to be back with Mittelstadt (until last year when it was a disaster, it ususally worked ok when attempted); and then probably Rousek or Rosen flanking Cozens but Kulich or Benson could flat out earn it in camp.  Peterka being able to play either side leaves all 4 in the mix for that spot.

Personally am pencilling in Jost as the 13F until he proves otherwise.