Nikita Novikov: 2023/24 Expectations

[LGR4GM]

Novikov had 5 assists through 2 prospect challenge games. He was very good at the 3v3 tournament as well. He has 2 years of KHL experience and just turned 20 at the end of July while being 6'4" and over 200lbs. 

What do you expect from him in the AHL? 

Personally I think we might have a sleeping giant about to explode. His puck handling and skating are shockingly advanced for someone who did not flash in the KHL point wise. His KHL role from what I have gathered was to play about 10min a night and simply, stop the attack, get the puck out. He seems to be exceedingly good at shutting down opposing forwards both with his stick and with his body as needed. My guess is that if he plays 60games in the AHL we see about 35pts in his first NA season while being excellent on the PK. Guess time will tell. 

[dudacek]

Appert talked about him being exceedingly motivated on and off the ice, but raw.

Strikes me as a guy who coaches might underestimate in drills but who will make up for it on the ice. I certainly liked what i saw and have high hopes.

I think his aggressiveness and skill will be exposed somewhat by NHLers, but he will adjust with experience. I like the fact he will probably be playing with a veteran guy like Prow or Clague in Rochester and expect he will push past them by season's end.

I don't see the offence you seem to though, would be very surprised if he gets anywhere near 35 points in 60 games.

[Ctaeth]

Watched him a bit in the 3v3 tournament and the first two games of the prospect challenge.  Was really my first exposure to his game, but his defensive prowess really shone in the prospect challenge.  Even in the 3v3 tournament he didn't look out of place, but I do wonder if his offensive upside might have been a bit exaggerated there b/c he was playing with the clear best team (he had benson, neuchev, and a few others on the team if my memory serves me correctly).  His game kind of reminded me of muel a bit, felt like he was good at separating the other team's player from the puck and then making the pass.  

I'm guessing that at a minimum he will be a capable third pair guy, with enough upside to potentially be more.  He's definitely an NHL level talent and I expect him to look the part in Rochester.  

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Novikov had 5 assists through 2 prospect challenge games. He was very good at the 3v3 tournament as well. He has 2 years of KHL experience and just turned 20 at the end of July while being 6'4" and over 200lbs. 

What do you expect from him in the AHL? 

Personally I think we might have a sleeping giant about to explode. His puck handling and skating are shockingly advanced for someone who did not flash in the KHL point wise. His KHL role from what I have gathered was to play about 10min a night and simply, stop the attack, get the puck out. He seems to be exceedingly good at shutting down opposing forwards both with his stick and with his body as needed. My guess is that if he plays 60games in the AHL we see about 35pts in his first NA season while being excellent on the PK. Guess time will tell. 

I’m excited that you are excited about this guy. If the big three becomes the big five(I am including Johnson) it will go a long way to prolonged success through 2030)

[RochesterExpat]

So, it's worth mentioning that he played in the KHL for Dynamo. Dynamo uses a home rink that's North American size. I think he might have an easier time adjusting to NA hockey than many of us expect (myself included until I learned that fact)--at least relative to most EU imports. That being said, there will still be an adjustment as, even if his home rink was NHL size, most of the KHL rinks still aren't. That affects lanes, puck bounces and simple board play.

I agree with you that I think the offensive upside is there and I think Buffalo/Rochester's coaching staff will push him to take risks and jump into plays. He has the speed to recover. He was constantly cycling in to help with rushes during the prospect challenge. I think he will continue that trend with the proper encouragement.

I think 35 points in 60 games is a reasonable pace, honestly. That's lower than the scoring rate Samuelsson had in the AHL before moving to Buffalo full-time. Since, I like it, I'm going to steal the .58ppg pace but break it down across 72 games with something like:

Rochester plays in 29 games before January 1st and 43 after. I think we'll see something like 12 points in the first 29 games, but 30 points across the last 43 (42 in 72).

I think the biggest things working against him this season are (from most impactful to least):

1. His ice time will be higher than it was in the KHL (KHL uses 8 dressed D per team, not 6). Running a 72 game AHL season will test his endurance more than anything.

2. The language/cultural barrier. It's an adjustment and a difficult one. Especially coming from Russia. He didn't speak any English in his draft year two years ago, but he was apparently competent enough with his language skills during the 3v3 games to direct teammates on the ice during the 3v3. It might not be an issue. It might be. Hard to say the impact of moving 5,000 miles from home has on a person. At least there are other Russians in Rochester this year.

3. Ice size as mentioned above.

4. The Crowded blue line in Rochester.  Right now under contract in Rochester are Prow, Cecconi, Davies, Calgue, Jandric, Johnson, Savoie, Fortunato, Metsa and Novikov. Buffalo currently has 24 of 23 available roster spots taken with a 13-8-3 breakdown. So, unless a goalie is moved, another D-man (Bryson or Stillman) will end up in Rochester (or traded/claimed). 

I think #4 might arguably be beneficial if Buffalo lets him rest throughout the season like they did with Kisakov, Kozak, and Cederqvist. Kisakov was rested so that he could maximize time in the weight room and Kozak and Cederqvist were afforded generous recovery time from injuries for off-ice rehabilitation. I think #4 is about striking a balance. Too little ice time might keep him from hitting expectations. Too much ice time might do the same (#1).

[Mustache of God]

I hope everyone on this board one day finds someone to feel about them the way liger feels about Novikov.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I’m excited that you are excited about this guy. If the big three becomes the big five(I am including Johnson) it will go a long way to prolonged success through 2030)

I sure hope you're right, but this seems pretty optimistic IMHO. 

[bob_sauve28]

43 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I sure hope you're right, but this seems pretty optimistic IMHO. 

September is a time of hockey optimism! The reality comes later 🤠