Projecting our evolving forward group beyond this coming season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The prospect tournament got me thinking about how these kids fit into the Sabres long-term.  I don't think there is any argument that Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Rosen are future NHL players.  I also now think Cederqvist has a possible future as a depth forward in the NHL sooner than later.  

The question is when do they arrive in Buffalo and who moves on to make room for them?

As of today, the Sabres have 14 forwards under contract for this coming season (including Quinn and Rousek).  Cap hit is about $48.63 million. 

Of these 14, 6 are FAs after 2023/24 including RFAS Krebs and Mitts with UFAs Girgensons, Jost, VO, and KO.

Another 4 have 2 years remaining - Greenway (UFA), plus JJP, Rousek, and Quinn.

Thompson and Cozens are signed long-term while Skinner (4 years @ 9 mill) and Tuch (3 years @ 4.75) have decent term remaining.

So how does this play out?

2024-25 - (Kulich and Rosen make the team - Benson and Savoie to Rochester)

Mitts (5 year @ 6.5) and Krebs (2 years @ 3.5) are re-signed.

VO, KO, and Girgensons are allowed to walk.  Jost re-signs for a year to be the 13th forward

Skinner Thompson Tuch

Mitts Cozens Quinn

JJP Krebs Rosen

Rousek Kulich Greenway (Jost)

2025-2026 (Cederqvist, Savoie and Benson make the team)

JJP & Quinn extended on 3-4 year bridge deals. Tuch extended 6 years @ $7 mill.

Greenway re-signs, while Skinner and Rousek are traded.

Quinn Thompson Tuch

Benson Cozens Mitts

JJP Kulich Savoie

Rosen Krebs Greenway (Cederqvist)

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Hank]

Ahh, I just posted something similar in the other thread. I have Savoie and Benson next year over Rosen and Rousek. 

[JohnC]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The prospect tournament got me thinking about how these kids fit into the Sabres long-term.  I don't think there is any argument that Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Rosen are future NHL players.  I also now think Cederqvist has a possible future as a depth forward in the NHL sooner than later.  

The question is when do they arrive in Buffalo and who moves on to make room for them?

As of today, the Sabres have 14 forwards under contract for this coming season (including Quinn and Rousek).  Cap hit is about $48.63 million. 

Of these 14, 6 are FAs after 2023/24 including RFAS Krebs and Mitts with UFAs Girgensons, Jost, VO, and KO.

Another 4 have 2 years remaining - Greenway (UFA), plus JJP, Rousek, and Quinn.

Thompson and Cozens are signed long-term while Skinner (4 years @ 9 mill) and Tuch (3 years @ 4.75) have decent term remaining.

So how does this play out?

2024-25 - (Kulich and Rosen make the team - Benson and Savoie to Rochester)

Mitts (5 year @ 6.5) and Krebs (2 years @ 3.5) are re-signed.

VO, KO, and Girgensons are allowed to walk.  Jost re-signs for a year to be the 13th forward)

Skinner Thompson Tuch

Mitts Cozens Quinn

JJP Krebs Rosen

Rousek Kulich Greenway

2025-2026 (Cederqvist, Savoie and Benson make the team)

JJP & Quinn extended on 3-4 year bridge deals. Tuch extended 6 years @ $7 mill.

Greenway re-signs, while Skinner and Rousek are traded.

Quinn Thompson Tuch

Benson Cozens Mitts

JJP Kulich Savoie

Rosen Krebs Greenway

Cederqvist

 

 

 

What's so appealing in reviewing your list of players is the level of depth and roster flexibility. Injuries are a fact of life in hockey. A loss of a player is also an opportunity for a prepared prospect. The system has been rebuilt and restocked. How can a Sabre fan not be optimistic?

[Marvin]

Remember in 2005-6 and 2006-7, where the Sabres weathered the storm of the equivalent of 2 forward lines being out at one time?  That is why I like the emerging depth.

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

What's so appealing in reviewing your list of players is the level of depth and roster flexibility. Injuries are a fact of life in hockey. A loss of a player is also an opportunity for a prepared prospect. The system has been rebuilt and restocked. How can a Sabre fan not be optimistic?

 

[TheAud]

Östlund traded? Or just doesn't challenge for a spot in this timeframe?

[thewookie1]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The prospect tournament got me thinking about how these kids fit into the Sabres long-term.  I don't think there is any argument that Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Rosen are future NHL players.  I also now think Cederqvist has a possible future as a depth forward in the NHL sooner than later.  

The question is when do they arrive in Buffalo and who moves on to make room for them?

As of today, the Sabres have 14 forwards under contract for this coming season (including Quinn and Rousek).  Cap hit is about $48.63 million. 

Of these 14, 6 are FAs after 2023/24 including RFAS Krebs and Mitts with UFAs Girgensons, Jost, VO, and KO.

Another 4 have 2 years remaining - Greenway (UFA), plus JJP, Rousek, and Quinn.

Thompson and Cozens are signed long-term while Skinner (4 years @ 9 mill) and Tuch (3 years @ 4.75) have decent term remaining.

So how does this play out?

2024-25 - (Kulich and Rosen make the team - Benson and Savoie to Rochester)

Mitts (5 year @ 6.5) and Krebs (2 years @ 3.5) are re-signed.

VO, KO, and Girgensons are allowed to walk.  Jost re-signs for a year to be the 13th forward

Skinner Thompson Tuch

Mitts Cozens Quinn

JJP Krebs Rosen

Rousek Kulich Greenway (Jost)

2025-2026 (Cederqvist, Savoie and Benson make the team)

JJP & Quinn extended on 3-4 year bridge deals. Tuch extended 6 years @ $7 mill.

Greenway re-signs, while Skinner and Rousek are traded.

Quinn Thompson Tuch

Benson Cozens Mitts

JJP Kulich Savoie

Rosen Krebs Greenway (Cederqvist)

 

 

 

I highly doubt Skinner gets traded due to his NMC and contract.

[Zamboni]

32 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I highly doubt Skinner gets traded due to his NMC and contract.

Exactly. No chance in H E double hockey sticks.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

I highly doubt Skinner gets traded due to his NMC and contract.

Forgot about his NMC.  That doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t be traded but I agree I doubt he’d be willing to move if this team continues to progress and he continues to contribute.

I was hoping to use his cap hit to retain some other players, but I guess we'll have to save cap space elsewhere.

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

I think there almost has to be several of these kids that get moved.  We’ve acquired a bunch of prospects that all fit a role that is primarily top 6 or middle 6 scoring.

My only real criticism of the prospects we’ve acquired is, where are the role players?  Where is the Mike Grier, Vaclav Varada, Paul Gaustad?  Is there a TJ Compher?  Or Foligno?  Dave Bolland?  We’ll need to move some of the high skill, high octane that we have to properly fill out a roster with the role players a well balanced team needs.

Too bad Pekar didn’t have what it takes.

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think there almost has to be several of these kids that get moved.  We’ve acquired a bunch of prospects that all fit a role that is primarily top 6 or middle 6 scoring.

My only real criticism of the prospects we’ve acquired is, where are the role players?  Where is the Mike Grier, Vaclav Varada, Paul Gaustad?  Is there a TJ Compher?  Or Foligno?  Dave Bolland?  We’ll need to move some of the high skill, high octane that we have to properly fill out a roster with the role players a well balanced team needs.

Too bad Pekar didn’t have what it takes.

That is where guys like Rousek, Cederqvist, and Nadeau come in.  

[Taro T]

24 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think there almost has to be several of these kids that get moved.  We’ve acquired a bunch of prospects that all fit a role that is primarily top 6 or middle 6 scoring.

My only real criticism of the prospects we’ve acquired is, where are the role players?  Where is the Mike Grier, Vaclav Varada, Paul Gaustad?  Is there a TJ Compher?  Or Foligno?  Dave Bolland?  We’ll need to move some of the high skill, high octane that we have to properly fill out a roster with the role players a well balanced team needs.

Too bad Pekar didn’t have what it takes.

They SHOULD be able to trade for those guys.  Roy for Malkin trades never happen.  Roy for Ott trades are actually quite doable.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I think there almost has to be several of these kids that get moved.  We’ve acquired a bunch of prospects that all fit a role that is primarily top 6 or middle 6 scoring.

My only real criticism of the prospects we’ve acquired is, where are the role players?  Where is the Mike Grier, Vaclav Varada, Paul Gaustad?  Is there a TJ Compher?  Or Foligno?  Dave Bolland?  We’ll need to move some of the high skill, high octane that we have to properly fill out a roster with the role players a well balanced team needs.

Too bad Pekar didn’t have what it takes.

i think what people aren't really considering is how skilled players can, and frequently do, evolve.

Seth Appert just pointed out that Ryan Johnson – despite being a great skater with good skills - is being groomed to be a shutdown defenceman because that is how his skillset best fits into what the Sabres are building.

i love the fact you bring up guys like Bolland and Compher. Peyton Krebs, last season, was very much being groomed to be this team's 3C, and it's not hard to see how his skillset can translate. From what i've seen of Savoie or Östlund, they could also be groomed for a similar role. GA thinks they have Kulich on that path. Others think he's on the path of replacing Olofsson. One of the reasons people love Benson is the way he plays without the puck.

Very few of the players in the Sabres system are guys you'd consider "he's this or bust". Up until this week, I'd largely pigeonholed Rosen as top-6 scoring winger or nothing. Now I see him adding strength, diligence and responsibility to his obvious NHL skating and I wonder why can't he play the PK or be trusted to protect a 1-goal lead late?

When has it ever been a bad thing to have skilled guys in your bottom six? The issue you guys have identified isn't skillset. It's coaching and ego.

I've said elsewhere that the question being posed by this thread is premature. I'm not going prejudge which players are going to let ego get in the way of coaching and refuse to develop in the way the team needs, but the ones that do, those are the ones I'm trading.

Edited September 19, 2023 by dudacek

[Weave]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That is where guys like Rousek, Cederqvist, and Nadeau come in.  

Do you see potential Mike Grier or Bolland in any of those?

8 hours ago, Taro T said:

They SHOULD be able to trade for those guys.  Roy for Malkin trades never happen.  Roy for Ott trades are actually quite doable.

Agreed.  Which is why I expect several of these kids we like to not be Sabres when they are mid NHL career.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Do you see potential Mike Grier or Bolland in any of those?

We won't know until they make the NHL and our given that role.  Cederqvisit has the size and skill to be effective in that role.  Nadeau already plays a physical game.  Kozak is already being groomed for a depth NHL role.  KA also acquired Greenway for that purpose.

[Doohicksie]

10 hours ago, Weave said:

I think there almost has to be several of these kids that get moved.  We’ve acquired a bunch of prospects that all fit a role that is primarily top 6 or middle 6 scoring.

My only real criticism of the prospects we’ve acquired is, where are the role players?  Where is the Mike Grier, Vaclav Varada, Paul Gaustad?  Is there a TJ Compher?  Or Foligno?  Dave Bolland?  We’ll need to move some of the high skill, high octane that we have to properly fill out a roster with the role players a well balanced team needs.

Too bad Pekar didn’t have what it takes.

I think Rousek may end up being that role player, and Tyson Kozak will eventually make the team in a sandpaper role.

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Do you see potential Mike Grier or Bolland in any of those?

Actually, yes.

[Doohicksie]

Also with respect to role players... out of Tuch, Thompson and Cozens, I could see them carrying on as Skinner has in a top line role, but I could also picture one of them following a more Okposo-ish trajectory, especially if one gets injured and someone else seizes the top line role.  When we got Tuch he was thought to be a middle six guy.  The synergy he brings to the top line makes it look like that line will be together forever but I could see Tuch eventually reverting back to that middle six role, and eventually maybe down to the 4th line.

[JohnC]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Forgot about his NMC.  That doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t be traded but I agree I doubt he’d be willing to move if this team continues to progress and he continues to contribute.

I was hoping to use his cap hit to retain some other players, but I guess we'll have to save cap space elsewhere.

 

Why would there be any interest in trading Skinner?  The Sabres are finally/belatedly in a position to win. This team has serious aspirations that are grounded in realism. Skinner is a 30 + goal scorer on the top line. He's also a feisty player who energizes his teammates. Considering his production and the expectation for the cap to go up, his contract is a fair-value contract. 

It's inarguable that the talent pipeline is robust. But not one of the impressive prospects who are waiting in the wings will come close to matching his production in the next few years. We've come to the point where the discussion should be about the NOW. The worthy players in the pipeline will get their opportunities. Some of it will be due to injuries, retirements and player trades. As for now, I have no interest in trading Skinner or any player who will help us succeed right now.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why would there be any interest in trading Skinner?

Simple.  He has a $9 mill cap hit that might need to be allocated to pay younger players.  Unfortunately, he has a complete NMC.  

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Simple.  He has a $9 mill cap hit that might need to be allocated to pay younger players.  Unfortunately, he has a complete NMC.  

But he only has 4 years left. Kulich, Savoie, Benson are all highly unlikely to burn and ELC year this season. That means all of them will be on their ELC contracts for the duration of Skinner's remaining years. If Skinner produces within 10% of what he did this past year for the duration, he is well worth his cost. Think of it this way... would you worry about Skinner at all if Cozens made 8mil, Tage made 9mil and Skinner made 6mil? Because with Tage and Cozens making 7mil, you could essentially redistribute the money like that and you have the same cap. 

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Simple.  He has a $9 mill cap hit that might need to be allocated to pay younger players.  Unfortunately, he has a complete NMC.  

His current contract relative to his production is fair-value. None of the young prospects in the system will match his production, at least for the next 3 to 4 years. The pipeline will work itself out. Focus on the now!

[tom webster]

Skinner is more likely to be bought out near the end of his deal

Eventually they will trade future number ones for some Goodrow/Hagel/Colton types.

When they are an actual contender, they can add a Maroon/Perry type at veteran minimum 

Some of the prospects will plateau out and become expansion feed

[LGR4GM]

I can't do multiple years because things change but I will do 2024/25

Skinner - Tage - Tuch

JJP - Cozens - Quinn

Savoie - Mitts - Greenway

Rosen - Krebs - Kulich

Rousek

Now some of you will look at this and yell, too many rookies! what about a checking line! And I think there is the possibility that Kulich and Savoie end up in the AHL next year with callups galore. However I also think that there is a good chance they might not do that. Essentially your "checking" line is Savoie - Mitts - Greenway and we all forget that Mitts is solid defensively and so is greenway. Savoie gives that line some extra speed but you could also swap Rosen into that, he's very good 2-way. Now that 4th line has Rosen on it because it balances a bit better than putting Savoie there. Rosen has the speed and connection with Kulich already and Krebs is a good distrubtor to either. You may think this lineup is too young but Rosen will 21 and Savoie 20 to start the year. Kulich will be 20 as well. JJP, Quinn will be 22. Krebs will be 23. So it isn't as young as you think and everyone except Savoie will have had 2 years or more of pro experience (AHL or better). 

Zach Benson in this scenario is hopefully in the AHL. If I were Buffalo I would argue very strongly that the shortened CHL season in which Benson played 24 games counts as an accrued season. The number for accrued is 25 games btw. Either way, Benson isn't here yet because I think Savoie fits that line better and also gives Benson the extra year to get ready. If he is in the AHL, he is a first callup type of player. Östlund in this scenario is just getting settled in NA so we won't worry about him until 2025 or 2026. 

Anyways that is what I would project with the possibility of one of Kulich or Savoie staying in Rochester and a UFA being brought in instead. Rousek is the 13th forward here. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

If Savoie ends up needing surgery on his shoulder, he will definitely be in Rochester in 2024-25.

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

Why would there be any interest in trading Skinner? 

To make a roster spot for Paddy Kane 💀

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

To make a roster spot for Paddy Kane 💀

Are you harassing me? You may not be aware of it but I'm a very sensitive person. You bring up an interesting question: Who will sign him?