Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #19 Peyton Krebs

[dudacek]

Some disappointment must have existed with the fact Krebs failed to appreciably increase his offensive stats in his 1st full NHL season despite playing 26 more games. His 78 shots in 74 games ranked dead last among Sabre forwards and barely beat out Mattias Samuelson, who played 19 fewer games. A deeper dive, however, shows some significant improvements. His giveaway per 60 rate dropped from a team-worst 2.6 to rank 8th among regulars at 1.6, while this hits per 60 went from 1.6 (among the worst on the team) to 5.4, 2nd best among forwards. His 5-on-5 Corsi jumped a full 6 percentage points, from 46.2% to 52.6%. Most notably, his ice time after January 1 climbed to 15:09 per game, good for 6th among forwards, after he skated just 11:59 in the 3 months prior. Much of the ice time increase was fed by the addition of a full-time role killing penalties.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=197782

It hasn’t sparked a lot of conversation, but there is a fair amount of evidence to support the theory the organization is grooming Krebs to be its long-term 2-way 3C behind Thompson and Cozens. He certainly has the hustle, the hockey sense and just enough rat to succeed in that role with experience. What is less clear is how much offensive growth potential remains in there: can he produce at the NHL level?

What do you expect from Krebs this year?
(Last year’s takes here)

[French Collection]

I think he will be the 3C while Mitts plays wing with Cozens. I believe he will get 30-40 points. I hope his PK skills take a jump forward and he becomes a go to guy on that unit.

Sabres Live interview with James Patrick was very honest. He said Krebs thought of himself as a top six player but that the NHL slots you where you belong. Patrick said he needs to embrace his role.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, French Collection said:

I think he will be the 3C while Mitts plays wing with Cozens. I believe he will get 30-40 points. I hope his PK skills take a jump forward and he becomes a go to guy on that unit.

Sabres Live interview with James Patrick was very honest. He said Krebs thought of himself as a top six player but that the NHL slots you where you belong. Patrick said he needs to embrace his role.

I was surprised how much the numbers demonstrated he has.

In his first year we complained he was weak, turned over the puck too much, and wasn't a good possession player.

The statistical improvements in all 3 areas last year were huge.

it's a credit to both the coaches and to Krebs' coachability.

i really see this kid growing into a valuable middle-six glue guy for a good team, and that happening as early as this year.

[Zamboni]

I think he’ll take a step forward in his development. I’m hoping for a 40-50 point 2 way player who gets some time in the middle six. Mainly due to injuries.

[JohnC]

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/sabres-live

Within this WGR link from SabresLive there is a discussion about Krebs and his role. Marty Biron felt that he sees his role as a third or fourth line center. And he believes that Krebs could carve out a role as a PKer. Marty B. felt that Krebs role on this team won't be on the top two line. He feels that his niche will be as a defensive forward. He cited Montreal's Guy Carbonneau as a player he should model his game on. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I am expecting career years from everybody.  Even Bryson.  He will be the best 10th D ever.

[LGR4GM]

Krebs is going to be the 3rd line center. He'll get lots of pk time but just get to 40 points. 14g 26a. 

[Pimlach]

I can see Krebs scoring more and being a good middle 6 guy if he plays 3C instead of 4C and if he has some help from his wingers (Greenway, Olofsson, TBD).  

I like the kid and he will be a good player in the NHL somewhere and at sometime.  

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, French Collection said:

I think he will be the 3C while Mitts plays wing with Cozens. I believe he will get 30-40 points. I hope his PK skills take a jump forward and he becomes a go to guy on that unit.

Sabres Live interview with James Patrick was very honest. He said Krebs thought of himself as a top six player but that the NHL slots you where you belong. Patrick said he needs to embrace his role.

I agree with all of this. Interesting quotes from JP — thanks.

I also agree that the team wants him to be the #3C and a 200-foot mainstay, and that he’s got it in him to excel in that role.

And I love the fire he plays with.  

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I also agree that the team wants him to be the #3C and a 200-foot mainstay, and that he’s got it in him to excel in that role.

And I love the fire he plays with.  

Substitute #2C and I think you're describing Cozens.  (not that I disagree with your assessment of Krebs)

[steveoath]

Said it before. Middle 6 and give him a chance to be successful. Give him Mitts and Greenway. On paper that could be really difficult for other teams to matchup against. 

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, steveoath said:

Said it before. Middle 6 and give him a chance to be successful. Give him Mitts and Greenway. On paper that could be really difficult for other teams to matchup against. 

With Quinn healthy and on the 2nd line with Cozens that is much more possible.   With Quinn out, Mitts might end up as a winger on the 2nd line.  

[DarthEbriate]

A firestarter and sparkplug. I also see him playing 3C more than 4C in terms of 5-on-5 minutes.

If he can stengthen up his shot and confidence with it, and get closer to 15 goals this year, then he'll be a very dangerous player on his next contract.

[Porous Five Hole]

I’m high on Krebs, but after listening to a James Patrick clip on ATW, I’m not so sure. Patrick said the NHL can define your role for you. And Krebs has been defined as a bottom six core guy who should be excellent at killing penalties. 
 

Maybe there’s more room for him to grow, but there’s no room on our top six for him.  Hopefully he embraces the role Patrick talked about.  

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I’m high on Krebs, but after listening to a James Patrick clip on ATW, I’m not so sure. Patrick said the NHL can define your role for you. And Krebs has been defined as a bottom six core guy who should be excellent at killing penalties. 
 

Maybe there’s more room for him to grow, but there’s no room on our top six for him.  Hopefully he embraces the role Patrick talked about.  

Just so others are aware, the guy Patrick talked about in context was Hall-of-famer Guy Carbonneau, not Johan Larsson.

[nfreeman]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

Just so others are aware, the guy Patrick talked about in context was Hall-of-famer Guy Carbonneau, not Johan Larsson.

Carbonneau was a great player and a very interesting comparable.  I've been thinking Mike Peca or a poor man's Jonathan Toews, FWIW.

[Porous Five Hole]

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Carbonneau was a great player and a very interesting comparable.  I've been thinking Mike Peca or a poor man's Jonathan Toews, FWIW.

I am speaking for myself, but I interpreted the comment to speak to the role of the player and not their ceiling as a player.  

[Night Train]

 I've expressed my belief many times that Krebs could really help a couple of scoring types with his fearless hustle and excellent passing ability. Sticking him with KO and Girgs on a 4th checking line seems like wasting his talent. I'll wait for camp to see the line combo's. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I am speaking for myself, but I interpreted the comment to speak to the role of the player and not their ceiling as a player.  

And i agree with you on this, just didn't want people don't think Patrick was suggesting Krebs wasnt good.

[nfreeman]

4 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I am speaking for myself, but I interpreted the comment to speak to the role of the player and not their ceiling as a player.  

Totally agree with this -- suggesting a Carbonneau-level ceiling for Krebs would be unfair (same goes for Toews).  But there are potential similarities in the role, the physical build, the speed, the toolbox, the potential value to the team, etc.

[Norcal]

Grab the 3C role and run with it

50 points

Provide a shutdown option at C