Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #23 Mattias Samuelson

[dudacek]

Mule’s importance to the team — and his reputation with the fan base — was cemented this season with one jaw-dropping statistic: the Sabres played like a 104-point team with him in the lineup and a 64-point team without him. He is not an offensive threat but gets a lot of hard minutes against a lot of tough opponents.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=196144

The fact that he has been around for parts of 3 seasons, and his general presence belies just how inexperienced Samuelson is. This is a player who has played only 109 NHL games. He also has a reputation for defensive excellence that isn’t necessarily reflected in his fancy stats, which generally show a player who has been lifted by his usual partner, Rasmus Dahlin. That said, he passes the eye test as a player who uses his size and his range effectively to snuff opponents. A key for both himself, and the team is his health. He’s been banged up enough to miss significant time in each of his three pro seasons.

What do you expect from Samuelson this year?
(Last year’s takes here)

 

[pi2000]

He defends extremely well, but he needs to stay healthy.

I also expect an uptick in offensive production.   He has the tools to be a 30-35pt player.

[Pimlach]

I am in between 2 and 3, so I have to pick 2.  

Until he shows more ruggedness and more ability to stay healthy he won’t be a real shutdown defenseman.  However, he is very sound defensively and he fits in great, he has a lot of upside.  Just has to get stronger and play meaner.  

Edited September 6, 2023 by Pimlach

[Weave]

Don’t be dissing The Mule.

[French Collection]

Another young guy with upside. Health is the most important thing for him this year. A full season will put him close to the 200 game mark and we will get a clearer picture of who he is.

He is also a glue guy on this team, a goofball that all of the others like. No one talks about this, but he is probably one of the leaders on the team, he has been in leadership roles on previous teams despite not being a star.

Edited September 6, 2023 by French Collection

[bg17]

Legit shutdown defenseman. Langway-ish. 

[mjd1001]

No expectations offensively. I'd expect a couple goals, but that isn't his role.

The rest of his game?  HOPE to stay healthy and play 70+ games.

Expectation is to become a better penalty killer with experience and have him be a truly top 50 guy in the league in PK. Even strength, Be a good, responsible guy who minimizes mistakes and KNOWS his D-partner and where to be to allow that D-partner to play their game.  Minimize mistakes.

[Zamboni]

Improving his shut down ability. A little more touch with the snarl and sandpaper to his game.

I think he will grab around 30 points

[sabresparaavida]

21 hours ago, pi2000 said:

He defends extremely well, but he needs to stay healthy.

I also expect an uptick in offensive production.   He has the tools to be a 30-35pt player.

I’ve seen a few posts to this effect in this thread, but I don’t really see it. I think he ends up being a solid 20-25 point defenseman that is very good in his own end and reliable in transition as someone who makes the simple play to keep possession. 30 points would have put him in a 3 way tie for 62nd among defenseman in the league , which is a pretty high bar (low end top pair production). Most defenseman that hit 30 points are getting PP time, which Samuelson is unlikely to get. 

[dudacek]

I was kinda hoping a few of our analytically inclined posters were going to do a deep dive into Mule’s charts because I don’t really have a good handle on them.

I love the kid’s game, so maybe that’s a good thing.

[nfreeman]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I was kinda hoping a few of our analytically inclined posters were going to do a deep dive into Mule’s charts because I don’t really have a good handle on them.

I love the kid’s game, so maybe that’s a good thing.

I'm by no means an analytics savant, and I think most of those charts are poorly presented, but I like moneypuck's customizable tables:  https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

Anyway, out of the Sabres' top 7 D last year in terms of total ice time, Mule ranked, in 5-on-5 situations:

- DFL in CF%

- 2nd-last in FF%

- 2nd in on-ice goals%

- 2nd in XGF%

- 2nd in score-adjusted XGF%

- 3rd in on-ice XGA per 60 min

- DFL in on-ice shot attempts against per 60 min

- 2nd in on-ice high danger shot attempts against per 60 min

 

So in most of these categories, he did well relative to the rest of the D group. 

 

 

 

[Brawndo]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I was kinda hoping a few of our analytically inclined posters were going to do a deep dive into Mule’s charts because I don’t really have a good handle on them.

I love the kid’s game, so maybe that’s a good thing.

The latest Maintenance Day Pod mentioned that Dahlin and Samuelsson are not the best pairing based on analytics. They also mentioned Granato hinted at having players spread out on all three pairings so they can roll three pairs more consistently. 
 

Dahlin and Power were the best together, but that should be only a situational pairing. 
 

Dahlin and Jokiharju actually worked very well together this past season, demonstrating how much better Dahlin has been playing. 
 

Based on their conversations I could see pairings of 

Dahlia-Jokiharju 

Power-Clifton

Samuelsson-Johnson. 
 

With the pairings becoming 

Dahlin-Power when the Sabres are trailing in the third period and Dahlin-Samuelsson when protecting a lead. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The latest Maintenance Day Pod mentioned that Dahlin and Samuelsson are not the best pairing based on analytics. They also mentioned Granato hinted at having players spread out on all three pairings so they can roll three pairs more consistently. 
 

Dahlin and Power were the best together, but that should be only a situational pairing. 
 

Dahlin and Jokiharju actually worked very well together this past season, demonstrating how much better Dahlin has been playing. 
 

Based on their conversations I could see pairings of 

Dahlia-Jokiharju 

Power-Clifton

Samuelsson-Johnson. 
 

With the pairings becoming 

Dahlin-Power when the Sabres are trailing in the third period and Dahlin-Samuelsson when protecting a lead. 

I heard that discussion.

Generally fits with my interpretation of what Granato was saying after free agency too, although it led me to pencil Johnson with Dahlin and Jokiharju with Mule as the base alignment, which puts a puckmover on each pair.

[Weave]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I heard that discussion.

Generally fits with my interpretation of what Granato was saying after free agency too, although it led me to pencil Johnson with Dahlin and Jokiharju with Mule as the base alignment, which puts a puckmover on each pair.

I shuddered seeing Joki on the first pairing.  I like this set up better.

[stuuuuuuuuu]

Anticipating an offensive explosion for a total of 4 goals this year

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Legit shutdown D.

[RangerDave]

When I played soccer and transitioned from goalie to midfielder, I had to re-learn how to play my usual fearless style without getting injured.

I hope Mattias can learn how to play rugged while avoiding injuries.  You have to pick your opportunities and avoid the reckless ones.

[Archie Lee]

On 9/6/2023 at 8:41 PM, Brawndo said:

The latest Maintenance Day Pod mentioned that Dahlin and Samuelsson are not the best pairing based on analytics. They also mentioned Granato hinted at having players spread out on all three pairings so they can roll three pairs more consistently. 
 

Dahlin and Power were the best together, but that should be only a situational pairing. 
 

Dahlin and Jokiharju actually worked very well together this past season, demonstrating how much better Dahlin has been playing. 
 

Based on their conversations I could see pairings of 

Dahlia-Jokiharju 

Power-Clifton

Samuelsson-Johnson. 
 

With the pairings becoming 

Dahlin-Power when the Sabres are trailing in the third period and Dahlin-Samuelsson when protecting a lead. 

This is what I think. The Sabres org has never been as down on Joker as much of the fanbase is. Also, they didn’t target two right shot D-men just to move one of them or Joker to the left-side. 
 

Further, D-pairings are nebulous. Penalties, injuries, in-game performance and the score of the game will dictate how many minutes each player gets and who they play with. You  might start a game with 3 balanced pairings, but that is rarely how the game will play-out. 

[Norcal]

Step the ***** up

It's time to realize your full potential big man

Be THE shutdown defender