Sabres, Redwings, or Senators: Who is the best team and most likely to make the playoffs?

[LGR4GM]

This came out of a conversation in another thread but as we go into a new season I think it is a good idea to review where we sit in regards to our "peers". In this instance peers meaning other teams in the middle of rebuilds in our own division. Ottawa, Detroit, and Buffalo are all relatively close in that regards and fit what I am talking about. It is assumed that 1 of the 3 will finally break into the playoffs (more could).

So the question is at this point in time, who is further along in their rebuild and ready to be a playoff team? How would you rank the 3 teams listed in order from most likely to be a playoff team to least likely? 

To help, here are some useful stats from last season to look at. This will give you the team numbers and individual player stats for the season.

Buffalo: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BUF/2023.html 91 point season

Detroit: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/DET/2023.html 80 point season

Ottawa: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/OTT/2023.html 86 point season

 

Finally we have key additions and subtractions. Some of the key additions or subtractions happened near the trade deadline but are included because they should be.

Buffalo Additions: Connor Clifton LHD, Erik Johnson RHD, Jordan Greenway LW, and Devon Levi G. Potentially Savoie, Rousek, or Kulich as additions as well with Ryan Johnson also a possibility.

Buffalo Subtractions: Ilya Lyubhskin RHD, Jack Quinn IR (I am including Quinn here because he will be out until the new year most likely and might not be back up to speed until March or later, there's a very real chance he loses the entire season to this injury)

Detroit Additions: Alex DeBrincat LW/RW, JT Compher C, Justin Holl RHD, Shayne Gostisbehere LHD, David Perron LW, Daniel Sprong RW, James Reimer G. Potentially Simon Edvinsson LHD and Marco Kasper C could also be added to this team. 

Detroit Subtractions: Pius Suter C, Dominik Kubalik LW, Filip Hronek RHD, Alex Nedeljkovic G

Ottawa Additions:  Dominik Kubalik LW, Jakob Chychrun LHD, Vladimir Tarasenko RW, Joonas Korpisalo G, Josh Norris C (returning from shoulder surgery which sidelined him most of last year). Ridley Greig C is also an addition after playing 20games last season.

Ottawa Subtractions: Alex DeBrincat LW/RW, Derick Brassard C, Cam Talbot G

I think I got most of the big moves that teams made. 

[mjd1001]

Right now I would put Ottawa a tiny bit ahead of the Sabres, with Detroit 3rd.  Of course I'm hoping the Sabres are better than Ottawa, but I can see Ottawa as having a similar year this year to what NJ did last year.

Long term I would swap Buffalo and Ottawa (I think the Sabres ceiling of the current roster is a bit ahead of Ottawa) but Detroit is still 3rd long term.

Detroit is built to win now, they have a lot of vets on the Roster. Debrincat will help, so they should compete for the playoffs but just don't have much high end to compete with the best of the best teams in the playoffs. Detroit won't be bad, but I just don't see the amount of young talent there as Ott and Buf have.

I could engage in a seperate thread about Detroit, I just think they are so overrated long term. They have enough vets now that they might be a good team and their 'floor' isn't that low, they will be competitve just about every night, but I don't see the upside?  Raymond did not take the step forward people were expecting. Seider MIGHT be an all star D-man eventually but he is no-where near that yet. Edvinsson and Kasper aren't even ready to make the team, and they are good prospects but probably won't be elite.  They really have nothing else in the system that looks to be impact players.

Edited August 31, 2023 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

One more addition: Top 3 scoring forwards on each team and top scoring defender (have to still be on the team this upcoming season). This means DeBrincat counts for Detroit not Ottawa.

Sabres: Thompson 47g, 47a, 94pts - Skinner 35g, 47a, 82pts - Tuch 36g, 43a, 79pts - Dahlin 15g, 58a, 73pts

Redwings: Larkin 32g, 47a, 79pts - DeBrincat 27g, 39a, 66pts - Perron 24g, 32a, 56pts - Seider 5g, 37a, 42pts

Senators: Stutzle 39g, 51a, 90pts - Tkachuk 35g, 48a, 83pts - Giroux 35g, 44a, 79pts - Chabot 11g, 30a, 41pts

[tom webster]

Despite my disappointment with lack of goalie upgrade, I still believe Buffalo is the better team and will make a playoff push.

[Stoner]

Hey, Bob, come here. Smell these turds.

[dudacek]

Ottawa and Buffalo are in roughly the same spot and are going to be nipping at each others heels for years. Each has pretty much all the necessary core pieces in place now.

The team with the better depth and better goaltending will emerge this year, but the seeds are there for a long-term back-and-forth rivalry.

Detroit could hang with them this year because of their excellent veteran depth, but long-term they do not appear have the core players to match up with the other 2. Really Seider is their only star.

Thompson Stutzle Larkin

Tuch Tkachuk Raymond

Skinner Giroux Debrincat

Cozens Norris Copp

Dahlin Chabot Seider

Power Sanderson Wallman

Levi Korpisalo Husso

[Pimlach]

Looking at the young talent and the overall talent I rate it:  Buffalo, then Ottawa, then Detroit. 
 

Detroit has a more veteran mix, Buffalo the youngest.   The Sabres Achilles heel has been goaltending. Maybe Levi can change that?   If not, this could a year that Ottawa passes Buffalo.  

The Sabres are putting a lot on a rookie goaltender.   

[French Collection]

My Sabres bias has me placing them 1st but it is close with the Sens. Levi will be the deciding factor imho. Giroux turns 36 mid season, he is a key player that should start to decline.

The Wings are definitely 3rd because of the reliance on FAs and how that will affect team building. They don’t have enough high end talent and many FAs are on the back half of their careers, paid for what they were, not for what they will be.

Edited August 31, 2023 by French Collection

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, French Collection said:

My Sabres bias has me placing them 1st but it is close with the Sens. Levi will be the deciding factor imho. Giroux turns 36 mid season, he is a key player that should start to decline.

The Wings are definitely 3rd because of the reliance on FAs and how that will affect team building. The don’t have enough high end talent and many FAs are on the back half of their careers, paid for what they were, not for what they will be.

Pretty much this.

Homerism and a faith in Levi & a hope that Comrie is what we saw on the western trip when healthy rather than what we saw most of the year after that gives the Sabres the slight edge over the Otters.  But it could easily go the other way and actually both could make the dance this year.

Expecting Detroit to be a high 80's squad.  Better than last year, but hanging with the Habs and the Aisles; not the new cool kids.

[Doohicksie]

15 minutes ago, French Collection said:

The Wings are definitely 3rd because of the reliance on FAs and how that will affect team building.

See, that's why I put them ahead of Ottawa.  Their additions are here now, not developing for the future.  I kind of expect them to peak now and either plateau or kind of slip, as they don't have the high end talent pushing up from below to the same extent the Sabres do.  Still, the Sabres seem to have the Red Wings number the last couple years.

[Night Train]

 Ottawa and Detroit make A LOT of name signings, it seems. They went" win now" last year and failed. Looks like rinse-repeat. 

[Eleven]

I went Sabres-Sens-Wings, but it is VERY dependent upon Levi.

[LGR4GM]

Goals For and Goals Against

Buffalo: 296gf, 300ga

Detroit: 240gf, 279ga

Ottawa: 261gf, 271ga

This is where I would be the most concerned for Detroit. Yes, they added DeBrincat and that will help but does it really bring them up by at minimum 21goals? They also lost Kubalik's 20g. Detroit's biggest issue is that Stevie Y has prioritized high floor lower (not low but lower) ceiling players in his drafts. He seems to really like 50pt-60pt guys over say a more flawed but possible 90pt guy. Danielson and Raymond are probably the most dynamic forwards he's drafted and they would both need to hit their ceiling. Idk, I worry about Detroit. 

[xzy89c1]

Elite players: Sabres have at least two, Dahlin, Thompson with two others on upswing in Cozens and Power. Tuch is very good but i hesitate to call him elite yet. Sabres also have several players going into second NHL years ready to take a step up.

Ottawa has one in Stultze and Tkchuck is coming on strong.

Detroit has zero.

Sabres have great young depth of players ready to contribute at nhl level.

Ottawa has some but are younger. The trade for debrincat hurt them.

Detroit signed some players who are second line at best and traded for debrincat. They have no elite level players.

51 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Goals For and Goals Against

Buffalo: 296gf, 300ga

Detroit: 240gf, 279ga

Ottawa: 261gf, 271ga

This is where I would be the most concerned for Detroit. Yes, they added DeBrincat and that will help but does it really bring them up by at minimum 21goals? They also lost Kubalik's 20g. Detroit's biggest issue is that Stevie Y has prioritized high floor lower (not low but lower) ceiling players in his drafts. He seems to really like 50pt-60pt guys over say a more flawed but possible 90pt guy. Danielson and Raymond are probably the most dynamic forwards he's drafted and they would both need to hit their ceiling. Idk, I worry about Detroit. 

DeBrincat will help on PP. Other than that he is not helpful. 

[LGR4GM]

27% of Buffalo's 1st or 2nd round picks from 2019 to now have been either defenders or goalies. That's 4 out of 15 picks. 

58% of Detroit's draft 1st or 2nd round picks from 2019 to now have been either defenders or goalies. That's 11 out of 19 picks. 

46% of Ottawa's draft 1st or 2nd round picks from 2019 to now have been either defenders or goalies. That's 6 out of 13 picks.

While Detroit has had the most 1st or 2nd round picks since 2019, they have used the least percentage of them on forwards and to be honest it shows. Instead they have drafted: Sebastian Cossa G, Trey Augustine G, Axel Sandin Pelikka D, Andrew Gibson D, Brady Cleveland D, Simon Edvinsson D, Shai Buium D, William Willinder D, Moritz Seider D, Albert Johansson D and Antti Tuomisto D. That's 2 goalies and 9 defenders. The only forwards they have drafted in that time are: Robert Mastrosimone, Lucas Raymond, Theodor Niederbach, Cross Hanas, Marco Kasper, Dylan James, Dmitri Buchelnikov, and Nate Danielson. Note that Mastrosimone was not signed by Detroit and is slated to play for Marlies in the AHL this yeas. 

[thewookie1]

I’d say Detroit’s strategy is based on Yzerman’s experiences in Detroit as a player and Tampa as a GM. His goal, although artificial, is to lock the door to the NHL from his prospects and force them to earn a spot without a question. After all, Tampa and 90’s/early 2000’s Detroit were that way. The issue is that he’s using more or less stuffing to block prospects. If you have a high talent NHL roster, playing hard to get for prospects makes sense and can help push them harder. On the flip side, barring Compher and Copp magically turning into Zetterburg and Datsyuk; they are a middling team with too many ok players on big contracts.
 

Detroit is more or less our exact opposite; we left openings for rookies to jump into and learn under fire. Detroit brought in vets galore and have more or less blocked most of their prospects from even having a shot due to the contracts they gave out. Essentially where Buffalo could have used 1 more vet piece to help keep maybe 1 more youngster in Rochester; Detroit has welded the door shut. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by thewookie1

[RochesterExpat]

I have to go Sabres > Ottawa > Detroit because I keep expecting Detroit to take the next step and they haven’t yet so I’m done believing in them. Ottawa and Buffalo are probably there already and would be playoff teams if they played in the West.

[Stoner]

Will there be a Cup for the winner?

[LGR4GM]

15 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

I’d say Detroit’s strategy is based on Yzerman’s experiences in Detroit as a player and Tampa as a GM. His goal, although artificial, is to lock the door to the NHL from his prospects and force them to earn a spot without a question. After all, Tampa and 90’s/early 2000’s Detroit were that way. The issue is that he’s using more or less stuffing to block prospects. If you have a high talent NHL roster, playing hard to get for prospects makes sense and can help push them harder. On the flip side, barring Compher and Copp magically turning into Zetterburg and Datsyuk; they are a middling team with too many ok players on big contracts.
 

Detroit is more or less our exact opposite; we left openings for rookies to jump into and learn under fire. Detroit brought in vets galore and have more or less blocked most of their prospects from even having a shot due to the contracts they gave out. Essentially where Buffalo could have used 1 more vet piece to help keep maybe 1 more youngster in Rochester; Detroit has welded the door shut. 

The problem with Detroit's/Yzerman's strategy is that the league has changed from the mid 20-teens to now. It has greatly changed from the early 2000s to now. The league is trending to younger and more skilled. Yzerman doesn't have a game breaking. 

[DarthEbriate]

For me it’s the Sens and that is based on the goalie tandem. I simply trust Korpisalo and Forsberg over 82 games more than Husso/Reimer/Lyon and Levi/whatever sub.900 guy the Sabres are going to roll for 25-35 games.

[Weave]

Levi is the high risk wildcard.  If he is ready to be a middle of the road starter, Buffalo should be above the other two again this season. But even with a Levi that meets expectations, it’s a lot closer than I am comfortable with.

[#freejame]

We might be better than Ottawa or we might not be. Sanderson, Chabot, Stutzle, and Tkachuk are all very high end. Like others have said, it should be fun duking it out with them the next decade. 

[LGR4GM]

Redwings 1st training camp lines:

 

[Porous Five Hole]

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  
 

I would like to call out @PerreaultForever who routinely touted the Yser-plan as a model rebuild. Oops. Stevie Y has had five years and the Wings are no further along than Buffalo.  
 

Buffalo is a mess and needs a new coach.

Ottawa is a mess and needs a new coach.  That seems…familiar. 

[Doohicksie]