Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #89 Alex Tuch

[dudacek]

Most expected Alex Tuch to score 20+ goals and 50+ points last year and be a leader and an all-around good 2nd-line player for the Sabres. Instead, they got an all-situations beast and one of the best all-around wingers in the game.
He was an outstanding 54% possession player despite playing hard minutes. He finished 5th among NHL right wings in points/game while dominating on the forecheck and the backcheck. His combination of size and speed proved extraordinarily difficult to contain.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=160632

The biggest question facing any breakthrough player is ‘can he do it again?’ And make no mistake Tuch was one of the NHL’s biggest breakthrough players last year. Can he maintain a scoring pace that was significantly higher than what he had shown in any of his 5 previous seasons? Can he continue to handle the bell cow workload Don Granato fed him last year and avoid the injuries that have seemed to crop up every season? Is he ready to shoulder the expectations of leading this team into the playoffs?

What do you expect from Tuch this year?
(Last year’s takes here)

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by dudacek

[Night Train]

He will do great...followed by many posters saying we now cannot afford his new deal and must be traded for picks. 

[Doohicksie]

He will score 50 goals.

[Randall Flagg]

As long as he can stay healthy, which seems to be a valid concern, I am convinced that he is elite or close to it

[Zamboni]

I’ll aim “low”. So I’ll be pleasantly happy and fine if he does better than that…

 

If he remains healthy, Tuch will get in the neighborhood of 32 goals and 41 assists.

[French Collection]

Tuch’s all situations game will keep him near the top of RW players again this year. His combination of speed, size and increasing confidence will be hard for teams to stop.

The only drop off I can see would be due to injury.

[dudacek]

Maybe its because he was overshadowed by Tage and Dahlin rolling the highlight tape.

Maybe it’s because I’ve been watching bad Sabres teams for so long, we only talk about the past and the future, not the present.

Or maybe it’s because it’s too self-evident to spend much time talking about.

But I think Tuch’s excellence last year has been kinda overlooked around here.

His size/speed combination is outright elite, as in he’s rarely going to be in a situation where he is physically overmatched and he uses that advantage to dominate as a puck protector, puck retriever and zone-gainer.

He also uses his linemates well, makes smart passes and has a sneaky good shot.

Donnie deployed him like he’s a driver and expected him to perform like a driver. Alex realized he can be a driver and that he likes being a driver, especially for this team and this city.

He is a case of a dominant toolkit finally being in the right situation and headspace to fully exercise that toolkit and I don’t see that falling off at all.

Edited August 29, 2023 by dudacek

[Buffalonill]

100 points 

[LGR4GM]

There isn't the option I think he will be at so I won't be voting. Tuch will regress slightly and I think if he hits 30g that would be great but 27g and 70pts seems to be where I feel comfortable placing him and that is outside of a top 10 RW if scoring does the same thing again this year. Again, he doesn't drop off a ton but just a little as teams focus more on that top line and space is less. 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

Maybe its because he was overshadowed by Tage and Dahlin rolling the highlight tape.

Maybe it’s because I’ve been watching bad Sabres teams for so long, we only talk about the past and the future, not the present.

Or maybe it’s because it’s too self-evident to spend much time talking about.

But I think Tuch’s excellence last year has been kinda overlooked around here.

His size/speed combination is outright elite, as in he’s rarely going to be in a situation where he is physically overmatched and he uses that advantage to dominate as a puck protector, puck retriever and zone-gainer.

He also uses his linemates well, makes smart passes and has a sneaky good shot.

Donnie deployed him like he’s a driver and expected him to perform like a driver. Alex realized he can be a driver and that he likes being a driver, especially for this team and this city.

He is a case of a dominant toolkit finally being in the right situation and headspace to fully exercise that toolkit and I don’t see that falling off at all.

Honestly I hope this is the true assessment and Tuch still has another level above last year, I am just skeptical of a 27yr old with 6 NHL seasons to his name being able to take a leap above what he has this past season. 

[mjd1001]

He's in the prime of his career.  We should have expectations that are high for him. Production at about the same level as last year (if not slightly more) and a tealder/top 5 player on the team.

[Pimlach]

He is a stud and seems to be getting better.  

[SwampD]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

There isn't the option I think he will be at so I won't be voting. Tuch will regress slightly and I think if he hits 30g that would be great but 27g and 70pts seems to be where I feel comfortable placing him and that is outside of a top 10 RW if scoring does the same thing again this year. Again, he doesn't drop off a ton but just a little as teams focus more on that top line and space is less. 

Isn’t that the 3rd option? That’s what I picked cuz I feel about the same.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

Isn’t that the 3rd option? That’s what I picked cuz I feel about the same.

No. A 27-30g, 70pt player isn't the same as a 20g, 50pt player. 

Just my feelings

[Buffalonill]

He's better than jack ... You heard it here first

[Getpucksdeep]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

He's better than jack ... You heard it here first

Agreed, full package.  I voted just like last year.

However, the Hockey Guy (youtube) has Tuch #4 on his "players to drop in performance in 23-24".  

 

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

No. A 27-30g, 70pt player isn't the same as a 20g, 50pt player. 

Just my feelings

Gottit. So, somewhere between the two.

Your math ain’t so great today.

[dudacek]

19 hours ago, Getpucksdeep said:

Agreed, full package.  I voted just like last year.

However, the Hockey Guy (youtube) has Tuch #4 on his "players to drop in performance in 23-24".  

 

 

Statistically, a regression makes sense. Last year's numbers read like an anomaly over what history teaches to expect.

But I'm going with the eye test and my sense that Tuch better fits the 'right place, right time" profile and will continue to do what he did last year as long as the team around him gives him the same support and his coach uses him in the same way.

Tuch had only played 300 NHL games prior to last season and very few of those with any kind of leadership expectations.

True character reveals itself under pressure and what we saw last year is who Tuch is.

Edited August 30, 2023 by dudacek

[Claude Balls]

I'd love to see him get the C, but with KO coming back I don't see that happening. However, I can easily see him having a career year, barring injury. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don’t see any reason for a regression except injuries.  30g 50a 80 pts again.  To easy to say that the 1st won’t be under estimated this season and teams will focus on stopping them.  Opponents tried that last season as well and Tuch was a pt a game player in the 2nd half with 16 goals (33 games do to an injury).  

The better news for the 1st line will be the emergence of a nearly as lethal 2nd line of Cozens, Mitts and JJP.  I’m looking for another step forward by all 3 with JJP being the breakout player this season.

Defenses will be hard pressed to defend two deadly lines.

Edited August 30, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

If I may...

 

[Taro T]

Really expecting pretty much the same season from Tuch that we saw last year.

@dudacek talked about "right place - right time" and Alex might be the poster child for that.  He's a special player (not in the Dahlin type special, but special none-the-less) playing in the place he always dreamed of playing.  Really believe that being here in Buffalo, he's a bit more than he'd be elsewhere.  And absolutely love that he's a Sabre.

[Brawndo]

 

[Brawndo]

 

[Norcal]

Lead by example

Score 35 goals and 80pts again

Show the boys how it's done in the playoffs