Simple goalie analytics

[sweetlou]

I wanted to put some SabreSpacers at ease with our goalie situation to start the year. If Adams and Granato start the year with the 3 headed monster could it work?  I looked at the numbers from last year and with the improvement in the defense Sabres fans are hopeful it means an improvement in the goaltending.  My thesis is solely based on points earned for games started last year.  This projection is soley based on prediction for games played by each during next year.

Goalie- games started-  W-L-T=Pts

Levi- 40 GS                  24-12-4=52pts

UPL- 25 GS                  13-9-3= 29pts

Comrie- 17 GS               8-8-1= 17pts

That gives Sabres 98 points on the year.

[Randall Flagg]

If UPL plays the exact same way as he did last year, he will not win even 10 of 25 starts

He got insane goal support in his games and almost never allowed fewer than 3

[Sabres73]

If UPL plays the same as last year, he would likely have a very similar record, possibly a little better with a better team in front of him.

[pi2000]

The defense could be better, but both Comrie and UPL ranked bottom 10 on home ice for goals saved above expected.... that's on the tendy's.

[Night Train]

19 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

The defense could be better

 Needs to be FAR better. Some of our favorite players need to learn how to play a 200 foot game. The days of floating back are over if they wish to make the playoffs. Goaltending is a seperate issue. 

[JohnC]

43 minutes ago, Night Train said:

 Needs to be FAR better. Some of our favorite players need to learn how to play a 200 foot game. The days of floating back are over if they wish to make the playoffs. Goaltending is a seperate issue. 

Goaltending is not a separate issue. It is inextricably linked to how the players in front of them are playing. Vegas went through at least four goaltenders this season because of injuries. Yet they won the cup. The end of the season for the Sabres demonstrated that this team is capable of playing a tighter game. Can they do it for a season? That's the defining issue. 

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Goaltending is not a separate issue. It is inextricably linked to how the players in front of them are playing. Vegas went through at least four goaltenders this season because of injuries. Yet they won the cup. The end of the season for the Sabres demonstrated that this team is capable of playing a tighter game. Can they do it for a season? That's the defining issue. 

When you control for quality of shot, our goalies are still bottom of the league. Last year's goalies on a top 10 defensive team would allow more goals than good goalies would, to a degree that would be a hindrance to the team's goals. The goaltending was obscenely bad, AS WAS the team defense

[Randall Flagg]

In UPL's 17 wins, the team scored 5 or more goals 12 times. He allowed less than 3 goals in just 4 of these wins, and allowed 4 goals or more in 5 of his 17 wins. 

UPL's record did not come from good goaltending, it came from the offense winning track meets when he was in net, when it was at its hottest:

The red circles are non-UPL games during the time when UPL was stacking his wins. The team was scoring no matter who was in net. As soon as the scoring dried up, he stopped winning, and still gave up a lot of goals:


He had a good game now and then, as any goalie in the NHL is capable of, but when people point to his record, it needs to be stressed that he got the wins when the team was potting 6 every night no matter who was in net, and when his wins stopped, it was because the offense fell apart, and he allowed way more goals than can be considered acceptable all along the way. I don't care what his record was. If his performance track and development arc continue, and Levi doesn't become a stud in 60+ games, goaltending will be a threat to our playoff bid

[pi2000]

4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

In UPL's 17 wins, the team scored 5 or more goals 12 times. He allowed less than 3 goals in just 4 of these wins, and allowed 4 goals or more in 5 of his 17 wins. 

UPL's record did not come from good goaltending, it came from the offense winning track meets when he was in net, when it was at its hottest:

The red circles are non-UPL games during the time when UPL was stacking his wins. The team was scoring no matter who was in net. As soon as the scoring dried up, he stopped winning, and still gave up a lot of goals:


He had a good game now and then, as any goalie in the NHL is capable of, but when people point to his record, it needs to be stressed that he got the wins when the team was potting 6 every night no matter who was in net, and when his wins stopped, it was because the offense fell apart, and he allowed way more goals than can be considered acceptable all along the way. I don't care what his record was. If his performance track and development arc continue, and Levi doesn't become a stud in 60+ games, goaltending will be a threat to our playoff bid

GAAE - Goals Allowed Above Expected (cumulative over past 6 seasons)....
+-----------------------+--------+
| team                  | GAAE   |
+-----------------------+--------+
| Buffalo Sabres        | 209.30 |
| Detroit Red Wings     | 162.63 |
| Philadelphia Flyers   | 161.32 |
| Ottawa Senators       | 159.94 |
| New Jersey Devils     | 155.84 |
| Montreal Canadiens    | 132.15 |
| San Jose Sharks       | 130.85 |
| Minnesota Wild        | 130.20 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 128.12 |
| Edmonton Oilers       |  97.92 |
| Chicago Blackhawks    |  97.76 |
| Vancouver Canucks     |  81.63 |
| Florida Panthers      |  74.66 |
| Seattle Kraken        |  71.88 |
| Calgary Flames        |  67.99 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs   |  57.08 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins   |  51.51 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning   |  42.22 |
| Washington Capitals   |  32.61 |
| Los Angeles Kings     |  28.41 |
| Arizona Coyotes       |  26.60 |
| St Louis Blues        |  22.21 |
| Colorado Avalanche    |  21.67 |
| Vegas Golden Knights  |  15.27 |
| Dallas Stars          |  -9.16 |
| Carolina Hurricanes   | -11.38 |
| Anaheim Ducks         | -18.05 |
| Boston Bruins         | -25.69 |
| Nashville Predators   | -36.97 |
| New York Rangers      | -46.75 |
| Winnipeg Jets         | -58.59 |
| New York Islanders    | -58.65 |
+-----------------------+--------+
32 rows in set (0.00 sec)

Sabres since 2010
+---------+-------+----------------+
| year    | GAAE  | team           |
+---------+-------+----------------+
| 2010-11 |  7.36 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2011-12 |  5.51 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2013    | -3.78 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2013-14 | -4.79 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2014-15 | 18.28 | Buffalo Sabres | - Enroth / Neuvirth
| 2015-16 |  3.30 | Buffalo Sabres | - Johnson / Ullmark / Lehner
| 2016-17 | -3.80 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Nillson
| 2017-18 | 41.06 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Johnson
| 2018-19 | 39.71 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
| 2019-20 | 25.44 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
| 2020-21 | 32.99 | Buffalo Sabres | - Ullmark / Hutton / Tokarski
| 2021-22 | 41.64 | Buffalo Sabres | - Anderson / Tokarski / Dell
| 2022-23 | 28.46 | Buffalo Sabres | - UPL / Anderson / Comrie
+---------+-------+----------------+
13 rows in set (0.00 sec)

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by pi2000

[pi2000]

With a month remaining in the season I tried to figure out how many more points the Sabres would have with simply league average goaltending on home ice....

 

[Hank]

6K will be fine. 

[LGR4GM]

39 minutes ago, Hank said:

6K will be fine. 

No he won't. He's going to be a low grade backup in the league with maybe 1-2 years of solid backup/borderline starter play before falling off again. 

14 hours ago, pi2000 said:

The defense could be better, but both Comrie and UPL ranked bottom 10 on home ice for goals saved above expected.... that's on the tendy's.

It is also on Adams for not doing something to improve that. Running back Comrie AND UPL is a major mistake regardless of Levi. 

[dudacek]

13 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

In UPL's 17 wins, the team scored 5 or more goals 12 times. He allowed less than 3 goals in just 4 of these wins, and allowed 4 goals or more in 5 of his 17 wins. 

UPL's record did not come from good goaltending, it came from the offense winning track meets when he was in net, when it was at its hottest:

The red circles are non-UPL games during the time when UPL was stacking his wins. The team was scoring no matter who was in net. As soon as the scoring dried up, he stopped winning, and still gave up a lot of goals:


He had a good game now and then, as any goalie in the NHL is capable of, but when people point to his record, it needs to be stressed that he got the wins when the team was potting 6 every night no matter who was in net, and when his wins stopped, it was because the offense fell apart, and he allowed way more goals than can be considered acceptable all along the way. I don't care what his record was. If his performance track and development arc continue, and Levi doesn't become a stud in 60+ games, goaltending will be a threat to our playoff bid

 

So what you're saying is UPL does a fantastic job of pumping up our offence and probably should get more starts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜

[Randall Flagg]

10 hours ago, pi2000 said:

GAAE - Goals Allowed Above Expected (cumulative over past 6 seasons)....
+-----------------------+--------+
| team                  | GAAE   |
+-----------------------+--------+
| Buffalo Sabres        | 209.30 |
| Detroit Red Wings     | 162.63 |
| Philadelphia Flyers   | 161.32 |
| Ottawa Senators       | 159.94 |
| New Jersey Devils     | 155.84 |
| Montreal Canadiens    | 132.15 |
| San Jose Sharks       | 130.85 |
| Minnesota Wild        | 130.20 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 128.12 |
| Edmonton Oilers       |  97.92 |
| Chicago Blackhawks    |  97.76 |
| Vancouver Canucks     |  81.63 |
| Florida Panthers      |  74.66 |
| Seattle Kraken        |  71.88 |
| Calgary Flames        |  67.99 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs   |  57.08 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins   |  51.51 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning   |  42.22 |
| Washington Capitals   |  32.61 |
| Los Angeles Kings     |  28.41 |
| Arizona Coyotes       |  26.60 |
| St Louis Blues        |  22.21 |
| Colorado Avalanche    |  21.67 |
| Vegas Golden Knights  |  15.27 |
| Dallas Stars          |  -9.16 |
| Carolina Hurricanes   | -11.38 |
| Anaheim Ducks         | -18.05 |
| Boston Bruins         | -25.69 |
| Nashville Predators   | -36.97 |
| New York Rangers      | -46.75 |
| Winnipeg Jets         | -58.59 |
| New York Islanders    | -58.65 |
+-----------------------+--------+
32 rows in set (0.00 sec)

Sabres since 2010
+---------+-------+----------------+
| year    | GAAE  | team           |
+---------+-------+----------------+
| 2010-11 |  7.36 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2011-12 |  5.51 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2013    | -3.78 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2013-14 | -4.79 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2014-15 | 18.28 | Buffalo Sabres | - Enroth / Neuvirth
| 2015-16 |  3.30 | Buffalo Sabres | - Johnson / Ullmark / Lehner
| 2016-17 | -3.80 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Nillson
| 2017-18 | 41.06 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Johnson
| 2018-19 | 39.71 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
| 2019-20 | 25.44 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
| 2020-21 | 32.99 | Buffalo Sabres | - Ullmark / Hutton / Tokarski
| 2021-22 | 41.64 | Buffalo Sabres | - Anderson / Tokarski / Dell
| 2022-23 | 28.46 | Buffalo Sabres | - UPL / Anderson / Comrie
+---------+-------+----------------+
13 rows in set (0.00 sec)

 

Incredible stat

[Randall Flagg]

35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

So what you're saying is UPL does a fantastic job of pumping up our offence and probably should get more starts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜

"Well Paul, I could play better but doing this really lights the boys' tails on fire!" 

-UPL to Hamilton, WGR, 1st intermission interview. Score: Sabres 5, Capitals 4

[Hank]

For the record, I wanted Adams to upgrade the G. I still do. In fact, when hypothetical trades were being thrown around prior to the draft no one on here proposed giving up more than I did for Saros (Savoie, 6K, 23 1st, 24 2nd). That being said, if we go with Levi and 6K I think 6K will get over 30 starts and have a winning record. 6K will be fine. 

[LGR4GM]

If you start UPL 30 times in 2023/2024, you're not making the playoffs. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 8/10/2023 at 4:48 PM, sweetlou said:

I wanted to put some SabreSpacers at ease with our goalie situation to start the year. If Adams and Granato start the year with the 3 headed monster could it work?  I looked at the numbers from last year and with the improvement in the defense Sabres fans are hopeful it means an improvement in the goaltending.  My thesis is solely based on points earned for games started last year.  This projection is soley based on prediction for games played by each during next year.

Goalie- games started-  W-L-T=Pts

Levi- 40 GS                  24-12-4=52pts

UPL- 25 GS                  13-9-3= 29pts

Comrie- 17 GS               8-8-1= 17pts

That gives Sabres 98 points on the year.

This is very optimistic.  It would be nice to think the offense would be as prolific as last year and cover up for the terrible goaltending of UPL and Comrie.  It is also optimistic that a 21 year old rookie goalie would be that productive so early in his career.  Not saying it’s impossible, but unlikely.

The more likely scenario is that UPL wins the camp battle with Comrie.  Comrie gets waived and Tokarski plays 8-10 games as an injury fill in. 

The teams best hope for all the net minders is that the team tightens up on defense (forwards and D) and suppresses the goals against by 20 goals 5on 5 and that the PK also improves suppressing another 10 GA.  

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is very optimistic.  It would be nice to think the offense would be as prolific as last year and cover up for the terrible goaltending of UPL and Comrie.  It is also optimistic that a 21 year old rookie goalie would be that productive so early in his career.  Not saying it’s impossible, but unlikely.

The more likely scenario is that UPL wins the camp battle with Comrie.  Comrie gets waived and Tokarski plays 8-10 games as an injury fill in. 

The teams best hope for all the net minders is that the team tightens up on defense (forwards and D) and suppresses the goals against by 20 goals 5on 5 and that the PK also improves suppressing another 10 GA.  

@JohnC has beaten this to death, but if the Sabres 18 skaters are good enough, the team will make the playoffs without any improvement in net.

People point to Vegas and others reply, yeah, but that's Vegas. But:

• The Edmonton Oilers made the playoffs last year with a raw rookie Stuart Skinner playing 48 games and the absolutely abysmal Jack Campbell (.888 SV%) playing 36.
• The Los Angeles Kings made the playoffs with career minor leaguer Pheonix Copley playing 37 games and the corpses of Jonathan Quick (.876 SV%) and Cal Petersen (.868 SV%!) combining for 41 games.
• The Florida Panthers went to the finals with the duo of Bobrovsky and Knight (each a .901 SV%) combining for 71 games.
• And the Seattle Kraken made the playoffs with the UPL-level duo of Grubauer (39 games, .895 SV%) and martin Jones (48, .887)

it's no reason to accept the status quo, but apparently teams have goaltending like ours and make the playoffs all the time.

Edited August 12, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

41 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@JohnC has beaten this to death, but if the Sabres 18 skaters are good enough, the team will make the playoffs without any improvement in net.

I'm not sure I agree with that assertion.  The Atlantic and the East in general are a crap shoot and we have the least proven and honestly worst goaltending of any of the contenders for a playoff spot.  There are no guarantees that offense will be as prolific as last year.  Toronto's offense, for example, fell from 315 GF in 21/22 to 279 in 22/23.  I'd even argue that Mon has better goaltending on paper than we do.  I've shown the stats before, but historically 21-year-old goalies don't fare well in the NHL.  Very few ever play 40+ games and only MAF, Price and Steve Mason played 50+ and we need Levi to play 50 and play well for this plan of KA's to work. 

This team has to cut about 40 goals from their GA to ensure a playoff spot, especially if the offense isn't as prolific.   I don't believe right now that KA's changes are enough to accomplish that goal without Levi playing at a very high level.  Levi playing at a .900 save %, which would be a strong rookie campaign, likely won't be enough.

[JohnC]

42 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@JohnC has beaten this to death, but if the Sabres 18 skaters are good enough, the team will make the playoffs without any improvement in net.

People point to Vegas and others reply, yeah, but that's Vegas. But:

• The Edmonton Oilers made the playoffs last year with a raw rookie Stuart Skinner playing 48 games and the absolutely abysmal Jack Campbell (.888 SV%) playing 36.
• The Los Angeles Kings made the playoffs with career minor leaguer Pheonix Copley playing 37 games and the corpses of Jonathan Quick (.876 SV%) and Cal Petersen (.868 SV%!) combining for 41 games.
• The Florida Panthers went to the finals with the duo of Bobrovsky and Knight (each a .901 SV%) combining for 71 games.
• And the Seattle Kraken made the playoffs with the UPL-level duo of Grubauer (39 games, .895 SV%) and martin Jones (48, .887)

it's no reason to accept the status quo, but apparently teams have goaltending like ours and make the playoffs all the time.

I know I'm jumping the gun but I believe that Levi is very quickly going demonstrate that he is a good goalie, and with a little more time become a top tier goalie. What impresses me the most is his fearless and composed makeup. As was demonstrated in his short stint in our end of the season playoff run the big stage and pressurized environment was not too big for him. 

What makes me hopeful about this upcoming season is that the Sabres at the end of the season did demonstrate that they can play a tighter and more responsible two-way game. The Sabres were playing a lot of good teams in that end of the season sequence. In those meaningful games I never felt that we were outshined by the opposition. The key to success in this upcoming season is whether the team can adjust its game and collectively play a more responsible defensive style. 

[JohnC]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm not sure I agree with that assertion.  The Atlantic and the East in general are a crap shoot and we have the least proven and honestly worst goaltending of any of the contenders for a playoff spot.  There are no guarantees that offense will be as prolific as last year.  Toronto's offense, for example, fell from 315 GF in 21/22 to 279 in 22/23.  I'd even argue that Mon has better goaltending on paper than we do.  I've shown the stats before, but historically 21-year-old goalies don't fare well in the NHL.  Very few ever play 40+ games and only MAF, Price and Steve Mason played 50+ and we need Levi to play 50 and play well for this plan of KA's to work. 

This team has to cut about 40 goals from their GA to ensure a playoff spot, especially if the offense isn't as prolific.   I don't believe right now that KA's changes are enough to accomplish that goal without Levi playing at a very high level.  Levi playing at a .900 save %, which would be a strong rookie campaign, likely won't be enough.

You have watched a lot of Sabre games with keen and discerning eyes. There is no doubt that the Sabres last year were prolific on offense. On defense they were simply too loose in their zone, irresponsibly so.  It was fun and entertaining to watch. However, that's not the type of play that will be sufficient to get us in the playoffs. The addition of Johnson and Clifton should help. But unless the team places more emphasis on tightening up their game, they will fall short again. 

Granato has repeatedly stated that his first priority when he took over the team is to emphasize offense. Now this team has to a great degree mastered that part of the game. Now there has to be a shift to put more emphasis on the defensive side of the game. In their end of the season playoff run the team demonstrated that they could alter their game. Can they do it for much of this upcoming season? That's the big question. 

[dudacek]

43 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm not sure I agree with that assertion.  The Atlantic and the East in general are a crap shoot and we have the least proven and honestly worst goaltending of any of the contenders for a playoff spot.  There are no guarantees that offense will be as prolific as last year.  Toronto's offense, for example, fell from 315 GF in 21/22 to 279 in 22/23.  I'd even argue that Mon has better goaltending on paper than we do.  I've shown the stats before, but historically 21-year-old goalies don't fare well in the NHL.  Very few ever play 40+ games and only MAF, Price and Steve Mason played 50+ and we need Levi to play 50 and play well for this plan of KA's to work. 

This team has to cut about 40 goals from their GA to ensure a playoff spot, especially if the offense isn't as prolific.   I don't believe right now that KA's changes are enough to accomplish that goal without Levi playing at a very high level.  Levi playing at a .900 save %, which would be a strong rookie campaign, likely won't be enough.

 Don't disagree with a lot of this, but if you told me I could have Montembeault, Husso, Korpisalo, Samsonov, Bobrovsky, or Levi, I'd take Levi.

I'd also feel comfortable matching him up against Merzlikins, Jarry, Hart, Kuemper and Vanecek. Call me crazy 🤷‍♂️.

And none of what you just wrote really addresses the point of my post: as the 4 teams I cited proved, good teams can and do make the playoffs with goaltending like what the Sabres got last year.

I don't know if the Sabres are good enough to follow in their footsteps, but through my Kool-aid glass in August, I'm not seeing any reason why their skaters can't match the skaters on those other teams. Even if what Adams has done is not what I'd do.

Let's get this season started already.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 Don't disagree with a lot of this, but if you told me I could have Montembeault, Husso, Korpisalo, Samsonov, Bobrovsky, or Levi, I'd take Levi.

I'd also feel comfortable matching him up against Merzlikins, Jarry, Hart, Kuemper and Vanecek. Call me crazy 🤷‍♂️.

And none of what you just wrote really addresses the point of my post: as the 4 teams I cited proved, good teams can and do make the playoffs with goaltending like what the Sabres got last year.

I don't know if the Sabres are good enough to follow in their footsteps, but through my Kool-aid glass in August, I'm not seeing any reason why their skaters can't match the skaters on those other teams. Even if what Adams has done is not what I'd do.

Let's get this season started already.

 

Except FL, all those teams were out West.  Florida, despite mediocre goaltending, still had a team .896 to our .890 and allowed 27 fewer goals than the Sabres last season.  The Western teams gave up 256, 257 and 260 GA.  We gave up 300.  I don't think dropping it to 280 GA will be good enough.  The goal needs to be dropping it to 260 and I don't think we are there with the goalies we have.

[Porous Five Hole]

15 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

It is also on Adams for not doing something to improve that. Running back Comrie AND UPL is a major mistake regardless of Levi. 

I agree with you. But even with hindsight, what was the move Adams should have made to solidify the position? I’m not jealous of a single goaltending transaction this offseason. 
 

In the previous off-season, I lobbied for Jack Campbell. My assessment of him was wrong based on his 22-23 results.
Maybe there was an obvious move last off-season that he should have made and I don’t recall. But it isn’t like a bunch of teams fixed their goaltending with a trade or free agency signing where a goalie changed teams over the last two years. 
I previously suggested a Helle overpay for a one year rental, and you replied that my suggestion was bad asset management.  You weren’t wrong.
So the question remains…What was the big whiff on the GM’s part over the last 24 months that wouldn’t have us concerned with the crease going into this year?