What is Olofsson's role in the 2023/24 Sabres?

[Taro T]

24 minutes ago, French Collection said:

The guy that comes to mind when I think of transformation from offense to two way force is Steve Yzerman.

Bowman took over the Wings when StevieY was 28 and told him it was nice to score 50 goals and 100+ points but in order to win championships you need to shut down opponents as well as score. He never scored at his previous levels again but was a point per game 200’ C who went on to help his team win 3 Cups.

VO is no Yzerman but I guess it can be done if the player commits to it.

A few scoring veteran players hang on for a few extra years by becoming 4th line pests (Corey Perry) or more defensive roles (Staal, Stastny).

Yzerman is a great example.  Was going to go with Bobby Carpenter as the poster boy who turned his game from goal scoring to serious 2 way player, but youe example is better.

And no, not putting Olofsson in that category, but occassionally you can teach an old dog a new trick.  (And also, not saying it'll work with him, but until there's a better option that's what is hoped for.)

[irregularly irregular]

23 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Quick note, olofsson only missed 7 games last year. Not 20.

Thank you Liger for doing the fact checking on that. I guess it only felt like 20 games. Regardless of the actual number, VO has to come into camp and prove himself to be a much better and more complete piece of the puzzle.

[Broken Ankles]

On 7/19/2023 at 3:58 PM, dudacek said:

Good discussion on Vic on SabresLive.

2 of the interesting points raised:

His analytics were good last year

His 28 goals led all NHLers who averaged less than 15 minutes of ice time last year by a wide margin. No one else had more than 22.

Appreciate the heads up on this topic.  Listened today from the vault.  Worthwhile commentary by Marty.  Other nuggets I found interesting:

• Sports Logic stat on Loose pucks recovered in the O-Zone - Vic finished #18 on Sabres last year.  This meets the eye test where he seems timid and constantly losing puck battles - if ever engaged in the first place.  Skinner was 4th last year, which somewhat confirms Marty's posture that Skinner is not just a goal scorer.   
• Second on Sabres in Shooting percent - over 17%. 
• Marty believes a good return for Vic is a second round pick, but most likely only yields a third. 
• Only positive (+/-) player he played with all season was Dylan Cozens (validated on Natural Stat Trick).  Note that Vic's time with Mitts was awful.  I remember some of those games where both were stapled to the bench in third period. 
• 

 

I wouldn't want to risk him playing 2nd line minutes with Cozens unless there was an absolute beast on the left.  JJP is not there, yet.  Agree with most he will settle into the third line somewhere until Quinn is back. 

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Broken Ankles

[LGR4GM]

I'm really curious on what JJP is this year. Should be far better and be able to help Cozens more. 

[pi2000]

9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm really curious on what JJP is this year. Should be far better and be able to help Cozens more. 

He looked great at Worlds, time to take that next step.

[CTJoe]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm really curious on what JJP is this year. Should be far better and be able to help Cozens more. 

Know who would look great on that Cozens/JJP line?  Tatar.  Very good offensively and a bltch to play against

[GASabresIUFAN]

 

6 minutes ago, CTJoe said:

Know who would look great on that Cozens/JJP line?  Tatar.  Very good offensively and a bltch to play against

Mitts

[Scottysabres]

If Olofsson is still on the roster, here is his role in the 23/24 season......

 

[DarthEbriate]

11 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

If Olofsson is still on the roster, here is his role in the 23/24 season......

 

Come off the bench to become a folk hero, with people dressing as ABBA in the stands, and leading the Sabres to a surprise championship. And scoring the game-winning assist on the powerplay by faking the one-timer and shot-passing it to the crease for the easy redirect?

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

Come off the bench to become a folk hero, with people dressing as ABBA in the stands, and leading the Sabres to a surprise championship. And scoring the game-winning assist on the powerplay by faking the one-timer and shot-passing it to the crease for the easy redirect?

I could live with that, not sure if I would extend him though.

[Scottysabres]

4 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Come off the bench to become a folk hero, with people dressing as ABBA in the stands, and leading the Sabres to a surprise championship. And scoring the game-winning assist on the powerplay by faking the one-timer and shot-passing it to the crease for the easy redirect?

As the meme says......"Now that's some high quality H2Olofsson" 🤣 

[Rasmus_]

Two words:  Trade bait.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Fyi:  https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/nhl-forwards-stats.html

The Sabres had 5 players in the top 45 in the NHL in g/60.  Tage was 3rd overall at 1.945.  Pasta was 1st.  24th overall (and 2nd on the Sabres) was VO at 1.56.  Skinners was 28th (3rd on the Sabres). Tuch was 30th (4th) and Cozens was 45th (5th).  

Edited July 23, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[K-9]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fyi:  https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/nhl-forwards-stats.html

The Sabres had 5 players in the top 45 in the NHL in g/60.  Tage was 3rd overall at 1.945.  Pasta was 1st.  24th overall (and 2nd on the Sabres) was VO at 1.56.  Skinners was 28th (3rd on the Sabres). Tuch was 30th (4th) and Cozens was 45th (5th).  

Is there a defensive stat equivalent? I’d be interested to know how many goals against per 60 minutes VO is on the ice for.

[steveoath]

I make him a -23 which, given he had 28 goals, means he was on the ice for 51 goals against. 
 

he played 75 games. So he was .68 goals against per game.

14:21 is his average time on ice. If my arithmetic is correct I think that makes him 2.9ish goals against per 60.

 

*caveat: I’m really tired so I could be totally wrong 😴

 

[steveoath]

4 minutes ago, steveoath said:

I make him a -23 which, given he had 28 goals, means he was on the ice for 51 goals against. 
 

he played 75 games. So he was .68 goals against per game.

14:21 is his average time on ice. If my arithmetic is correct I think that makes him 2.9ish goals against per 60.

 

*caveat: I’m really tired so I could be totally wrong 😴

 

Or I could visit natural stat trick

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&playerid=8478109&sit=5v5&stype=1&stdoi=oi&rate=r&v=p
 

[LGR4GM]

13 hours ago, K-9 said:

Is there a defensive stat equivalent? I’d be interested to know how many goals against per 60 minutes VO is on the ice for.

There's Goals For per60 and Goals Against per60. Often abbreviated as gf/60 and ga/60.

Olofsson at even strength 2023:

GF/60 = 2.71

GA/60 = 3.93

GF% = 40.82% 

He's a net negative at even strength and has been for 3 years. 

2021: 36.36%

2022: 43.40%

Have to go back to 2020 to find a positive even strength goal differential.

[LGR4GM]

Olofsson at 5v5 specifically. This rules out 3v3 or 4v4 toi from above. Olofsson did get some 3v3 toi in OT so this only looks at your average run of the mill 5v5 hockey. 

GF/60 = 2.41

GA/60 = 3.68

GF% = 39.53%

Final note. Olofsson's GA/60 have gone up every year under Granato. My guess is the faster pace of his breakout and attacking system is ill suited to olofsson. He did better under Krueger who really focused on... uhh boring hockey. Really a team like the NYI could use olofsson to good effect I think. He can be protected by others and used as the trigger man. 

[LGR4GM]

On 7/24/2023 at 7:51 AM, LGR4GM said:

Olofsson at 5v5 specifically. This rules out 3v3 or 4v4 toi from above. Olofsson did get some 3v3 toi in OT so this only looks at your average run of the mill 5v5 hockey. 

GF/60 = 2.41

GA/60 = 3.68

GF% = 39.53%

Final note. Olofsson's GA/60 have gone up every year under Granato. My guess is the faster pace of his breakout and attacking system is ill suited to olofsson. He did better under Krueger who really focused on... uhh boring hockey. Really a team like the NYI could use olofsson to good effect I think. He can be protected by others and used as the trigger man. 

As an addition, let us take a look at Jack Quinn. Since Jack is the potential player being replaced by Olofsson we should understand what he brings at 5v5 and all even strength. 

5v5

GF/60 = 3.24

GA/60 = 3.38

GF% = 48.94%

At all Even Strength (3v3, 4v4, 5v5)

GF/60 = 3.17

GA/60 = 3.52

GF% = 47.42%

At 21 years old and a rookie, Quinn outperformed Olofsson at 27 and a 4 year NHL veteran. I think this shows that part of the issue is team defense as both Quinn and Olofsson have at least a ballpark average for GA/60 that is comparable. The interesting though is this all started with a discussion of Olofsson's GF/60 and his GF/60 isn't as good as Quinn's. Olofsson averaged about 30 more seconds a game in TOI (one shift basically) so I am a little surprised at that. Anyways, my point is that I am not convinced that Olofsson is a good replacement for Quinn's role. I would most likely put Mitts in that spot. 

Mitts 5v5

GF/60 = 3.13

GA/60 = 3.13

GF% = 50%

All Even

GF/60 = 3.31

GA/60 = 3.53

GF% = 48.39%

One last thing, these numbers are specifically ON ICE that I am quoting. That means if you are on the ice and a goal is scored you win, so in a way they are impacted by who and when you are on the ice. 

Individual rates are as follows for 5v5:

Mitts: 0.55 GF/60 and 1.77 AF/60

Olofsson: 1.42 GF/60 and 0/47 AF/60

Quinn: 0.9 GF/60 and 1.17 AF/60

This leads to the question, do you want a setup guy like Mitts with better defensive metrics on line 2. Or do you want a pure shooter like Olofsson with defensive liability on line 2 in place of Quinn who is really a balance between both of the mentioned players? With Cozens and JJP there, I would lean towards Mittelstadt. 

[Thorner]

On 7/24/2023 at 6:51 AM, LGR4GM said:

Olofsson at 5v5 specifically. This rules out 3v3 or 4v4 toi from above. Olofsson did get some 3v3 toi in OT so this only looks at your average run of the mill 5v5 hockey. 

GF/60 = 2.41

GA/60 = 3.68

GF% = 39.53%

Final note. Olofsson's GA/60 have gone up every year under Granato. My guess is the faster pace of his breakout and attacking system is ill suited to olofsson. He did better under Krueger who really focused on... uhh boring hockey. Really a team like the NYI could use olofsson to good effect I think. He can be protected by others and used as the trigger man. 

So would you consider it an abject failure on Adams’ part if VO lines up in our starting 12 to start the season? 

Because you are making an awfully good case for why we shouldn’t be rostering him if we care about our success at evens this season 

Also why would we consider Mittelstadt Quinn’s replacement? Didn’t he already get more minutes? 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Thorny