Looking at the Atlantic Division

[sabresparaavida]

I think this year the Atlantic will be a sort of evening out. Every team in the bottom half should be better to some degree, mostly from development and in some cases the offseason adds. The top half (aside from Florida, who squeaked into the playoffs last year) got worse between age and departures. 
 

The Bruins forwards as a whole got older and slower, and their center spine is now the worst in the division, but they still have a high end defense and good goalies. They likely end up somewhere 3-5 in the division 

The lighting got older and were really wearing down last year. They didn’t really add much this offseason and are trending downwards, they could still snag a playoff spot, or they might end up 9th or 10th in the conference. 
 

The leafs got slightly worse than where they were at the end of the year last year IMO, but still should have a strong regular season team. Their defense got slightly worse, and their backup goaltending situation is questionable at best. We’ll see what moves go down to get them cap compliant, but I don’t expect those to have a big impact. They are likely to be the best regular season team, but should have less easy games (though also less games against better teams). 

Florida had some pretty big improvements this offseason (at least for their regular season ability). I think their defense got significantly better, and they are probably the most likely to contend with the leafs for the top of the division. 
 

The Sabres should be better from development and improved defense depth. The goaltending is questionable, and the forward depth is concerning. They likely contend with the Lightning, red wings and Bruins for 3-6.

The redwings should be somewhat better. They have some young pieces that should develop (I expect Seider to bounce back), and Debrincat is a pretty big add for a team that wasn’t far behind the Sabres.

The Senators likely improve with a healthy Josh Norris and some development, but they are still a ways away from making it to the playoffs in this division.
 

The Canadiens should be better, again from development, but nowhere near a wildcard spot.  
 

 

 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I don’t think it’s hyperbole:

Pastrnak is a star and Marchand is fading but still a 1st liner

Frederic, Coyle, Debrusk and Zacha are good middle-sixers.

That leaves them 3 players short of a good top 9 and their depth is awful

Lucic is done and Van Rymsdyk is barely hanging on, Geekie’s 25 and never hit 30 points, and Greer, Lauko, Brown, Megna and Boqvist are fringe.

You know someone will emerge because it’s Boston, but whose forward corps is worse?

That's a tough question and you're primarily looking at offensive numbers. So if Geekie prevents the Sabres from scoring a goal and doesn't score any and Mitts scores a goal but also misses a check that results in a goal against which is the better player? Mitts will have better scoring stats but Geekie's stat maybe wins a game. 

That's just a hypothetical example to the point of comparison as to "better". 

Philadelphia is definitely worse. Washington is done and not better. Pittsburgh might not be better anymore either. Montreal has some young possibles but they're not better. Until we start keeping the puck out of the net as well as putting it in the net we're not really better either. Neither is Detroit. 

It's not an easy question to answer and if you just want to look at goal scorers, you're right, they're not very good. But if you want to consider 2 way or complete players, then they move up quite a bit. 

[dudacek]

37 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's a tough question and you're primarily looking at offensive numbers. So if Geekie prevents the Sabres from scoring a goal and doesn't score any and Mitts scores a goal but also misses a check that results in a goal against which is the better player? Mitts will have better scoring stats but Geekie's stat maybe wins a game. 

That's just a hypothetical example to the point of comparison as to "better". 

Philadelphia is definitely worse. Washington is done and not better. Pittsburgh might not be better anymore either. Montreal has some young possibles but they're not better. Until we start keeping the puck out of the net as well as putting it in the net we're not really better either. Neither is Detroit. 

It's not an easy question to answer and if you just want to look at goal scorers, you're right, they're not very good. But if you want to consider 2 way or complete players, then they move up quite a bit. 

I’m talking division, not conference.

As to your defensive part, I’m not sure where you’re getting that. It feels like a “Boston’s always good at defence” auto-defence rather than looking at the actual players.

Morgan Geekie had some of the worst relative Corsi on Seattle last year, despite heavy O-zone starts. Lucic was also negative. They are both slow as molasses. These are not good defensive players and they’ve lost the best defensive player in the game.

They will get bumps because of a great defence corps covering up for their mistakes, and yes, the system will help. Your example might work for Coyle versus Mitts. But Mitts is a better player than Geekie, full-stop. 

Of course we’ll see how things play out, but on paper the Bruins forward corps is full of Haydens, Staals and Caggiulas: guys who can fill a depth role but that’s it.

Edited July 27, 2023 by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 but on paper the Bruins forward corps is full of Haydens, Staals and Caggiulas: guys who can fill a depth role but that’s it.

Oh no man, that's wishful thinking. Even their mediocre prospects are better than those guys. They lack high end offensive players but they have a ton of 3rd and 4th line types. Guys like Lauko and Steen can deliver solid 2 way games and they're not slow either. Lucic is Lucic and we know why he's there but Geekie will be interesting to see imo. Not sure where he ends up on their roster. Yes, he's not fast, but can he be more when surrounded by higher end talent? Many think so. 

I know that team fairly well and I really have no idea how they will sort it out for the season but they will fall, it's just a question of how much and how far. 

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Oh no man, that's wishful thinking. Even their mediocre prospects are better than those guys. They lack high end offensive players but they have a ton of 3rd and 4th line types. Guys like Lauko and Steen can deliver solid 2 way games and they're not slow either.

I don’t know man, their resumes look an awful lot like Brandon Biro and Lukas Rousek to me.

But I should know better than to debate the merits of any Bruin with you 😁

Overall, we’re on the same page though: they will fall, it's just a question of how much and how far. And I’m not going to count them out until I see them out.

[LGR4GM]

Should compare the Bruins roster side by side with Sabres. See how they stack up.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Should compare the Bruins roster side by side with Sabres. See how they stack up.

I'll start:  G:  Levi/Comrie/UPL against Ullmark/Swayman:  Even though the Sabres have the higher potential long-term upside, it's tough to argue that the Bruins don't have a huge edge here.  Ullmark holds the Vezina right now, and Swayman would start on countless NHL teams, probably including the Sabres.  Since the goaltender is the only player capable of playing all 60 minutes and has the most impact on a team's record, it is easy to conclude that this critical difference outweighs any edge the Sabres might have at first defense pairing or second forward line, for example.

I'd love to see different posters put the Sabres' three pairs against the Bruins' three and the Sabres four lines against their four, but I think that the goaltender position alone will lead me to the conclusion that Boston still has the better roster.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Eleven

[JohnC]

23 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I'll start:  G:  Levi/Comrie/UPL against Ullmark/Swayman:  Even though the Sabres have the higher potential long-term upside, it's tough to argue that the Bruins don't have a huge edge here.  Ullmark holds the Vezina right now, and Swayman would start on countless NHL teams, probably including the Sabres.  Since the goaltender is the only player capable of playing all 60 minutes and has the most impact on a team's record, it is easy to conclude that this critical difference outweighs any edge the Sabres might have at first defense pairing or second forward line, for example.

I'd love to see different posters put the Sabres' three pairs against the Bruins' three and the Sabres four lines against their four, but I think that the goaltender position alone will lead me to the conclusion that Boston still has the better roster.

As you point out, the Bruins have a distinct advantage in net, the most important position in the game. When you compare the two teams it is a mistake to become overly enamored with our offensive talent without factoring in the overall defensive deficiencies of that same prolific group. That's where Boston has a distinct advantage. Their team advantage that includes the forwards, blueliners and goalies clearly resides with Boston. 

I'm hoping and expecting that our team will modify its style of play where there is more emphasis on team defense, even if it is at the expense of offense. If the Sabres can make that adjustment, then it is not a stretch to believe that the Sabres can come closer to matching Boston from a team point standpoint. 

[DarthEbriate]

For me with Boston it's the center spine. Zacha - good player. Coyle, 3rd liner. But neither worry me offensively and while Coyle is solid defensively, he's not shutting down opponents' #1s like Bergeron could. Krejci was also very good defensively.

Their major change this year will be possession. Faceoffs aren't important, unless you're great or terrible at them. Krecji was sub-50%, but Bergeron and Nosek were elite FO guys (60.1 and 59.3%, respectively). Nosek started 90% of his shifts in Dzone; Bergeron took every meaningful faceoff in late-game situations and on the top PP. Between the two of them they took 49% of the team's total faceoffs. If you remove their faceoffs from Boston's totals, the rest of the team won only 48% of their faceoffs. (Nosek is a sneaky-good pickup for NJ.)

Opponents are going to have the puck immediately off the draw much more in the Bruins' zone this year. That means more shots against, more effort expended getting the puck back or out, less immediate transition (win the draw, fire it up ice to Marchand dashing out of the zone -- who could do so because Bergeron was dominating the other guy in the dot), more quality shots faced by their (admittedly very good) goalies.

[LGR4GM]

Bergeron retired. We took one of their defenders. I don't think goalies will be enough to make up for that. In fact, I'll predict worse numbers from the goalies in Boston. 

It doesn't matter. No one is interested in doing a comparison. It's just, last year Boston was good so they're still good. 

[DarthEbriate]

32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It doesn't matter. No one is interested in doing a comparison. It's just, last year Boston was good so they're still good. 

What do you mean, nobody knows? Deck officer! Daily faceoff!

Boston's prospective lines are:
Marchand-Zacha-Pastrnak
JVR-Coyle-Debrusk
Greer-Geekie-Frederic
Lucic-Brown-Steen

Grzelcyk-McAvoy
Lindholm-Carlo
Forbort-Shattenkirk

Ullmark
Swayman

That's a one-line team with a very good top 4 and one superstar. When half your division is tanking or in serious rebuild mode, that's a playoff-capable lineup. When Buffalo, Detroit, and Ottawa are all ascending, that's a team that had better hope to win a bunch of low-scoring games and collect loser points with defence.

The Sabres preferred lineup down the stretch last year (with VO in for Quinn) is:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Peterka - Cozens - Olofsson/Quinn
Greenway - Jost - Mittelstadt  (move Mitts to C and Rousek on wing?)
Girgensons - Krebs - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Clifton
Jokiharju - Johnson/Lyubushkin

Levi
Comrie/UPL

I now believe the Sabres are better all-around (not cagey veteran savvy/defensive) at all 4 center spots. Debrusk is probably better than Quinn right now, and definitely over VO. Pastrnak and Marchand win, but with Marchand not significantly. Frederic is good, but the bottom 6 is all Buffalo if he's matching up with Mitts.

On defense, it comes down to whether people prefer Lindholm's experience to Power's potential. Because I'd take Carlo>Clifton but I think the Sabres have the better player at every other spot. Nationally, the vast majority of folks would take McAvoy over Dahlin because of name recognition/good team vs. not yet a playoff team.

In goal, yes, the Bruins are better hands-down (until Levi proves himself). Good for them. They're going to need it.

Edited July 27, 2023 by DarthEbriate

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Bergeron retired. We took one of their defenders. I don't think goalies will be enough to make up for that. In fact, I'll predict worse numbers from the goalies in Boston. 

It doesn't matter. No one is interested in doing a comparison. It's just, last year Boston was good so they're still good. 

The issue isn't so much whether Boston will be as good as they were last year. That is unlikely. As you point out they lost a number of contributing players. It's clear from a roster standpoint they won't be as good as they were. The more intriguing issue is whether this year Buffalo will be better than Boston. From an overall talent comparison, I do believe that the Sabres do match, if not surpass them. Of course, they do have a noticeable edge in net. The issue is: can Buffalo alter its more free-wheeling offensive style and play a more responsible two-way game. If they can, then Buffalo surpassing Boston isn't an outlandish notion. 

[Eleven]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Should compare the Bruins roster side by side with Sabres.

 

40 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No one is interested in doing a comparison.

What's stopping you?

Edited July 27, 2023 by Eleven

[LGR4GM]

Forward

BRAD MARCHAND PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK CHARLIE COYLE JAKE DEBRUSK

A.J. GREER MORGAN GEEKIE TRENT FREDERIC

MILAN LUCIC PATRICK BROWN OSKAR STEEN

 

Defense

MATT GRZELCYK CHARLIE MCAVOY

HAMPUS LINDHOLM BRANDON CARLO

DEREK FORBORT KEVIN SHATTENKIRK

[steveoath]

Based on nothing 

Sabres will finish 2nd in Atlantic. There will be much rejoicing. 

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Forward

BRAD MARCHAND PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK CHARLIE COYLE JAKE DEBRUSK

A.J. GREER MORGAN GEEKIE TRENT FREDERIC

MILAN LUCIC PATRICK BROWN OSKAR STEEN

 

Defense

MATT GRZELCYK CHARLIE MCAVOY

HAMPUS LINDHOLM BRANDON CARLO

DEREK FORBORT KEVIN SHATTENKIRK

Lines were pulled from LineCombos and idk how close Boston's are to reality but that is what I used. Buffalo had one edit done by me. Mitts went to Oloffson's spot and Olofsson slid to line 3. If you want to come in and complain because I did the lines wrong, have fun. I used what I had available. 

Forwards

JEFF SKINNER - TAGE THOMPSON - ALEX TUCH /// BRAD MARCHAND - PAVEL ZACHA - DAVID PASTRNAK

- Skinner is a step below Marchand but still a very good agitation winger. Edge to Boston. Thompson is better than Zacha, straight up better. Zacha might be better defensively but the sheer volume of Tage's scoring covers that. Pasta is better than Tuch, although I don't think Tuch has peaked. Overall, I think Boston's top line even with Zacha remains a point above. This gap is a lot closer without Bergeron.

JOHN JASON PETERKA - DYLAN COZENS - CASEY MITTELSTADT ///  JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CHARLIE COYLE - JAKE DEBRUSK

I think JJP will be better than JVR but at this point I would call it a draw. Again, I think JJP will be better and he has the potential to be better while JVR is declining. Cozens is better than Coyle. Coyle had slightly better defensive metrics but offensively Cozens is simply better. Again we have a case of a 31yr old versus a 22yr old and I will bet Cozens is better and Coyle declines. Advantage Buffalo. Debrusk v Mitts really comes down to which Mitts we get. Is it the 2nd half of the season Mitts, then I lean Mitts. Being with a shooter like Cozens and JJP, I think Mitts would excel versus Debrusk being with Coyle instead of Krejci is a decline. Conclusion is that Buffalo's 2nd line will be better than Boston's. 

JORDAN GREENWAY - PEYTON KREBS - VICTOR OLOFSSON /// A.J. GREER - MORGAN GEEKIE - TRENT FREDERIC

Greenway wasn't great but he's better than Greer. I could put Lucic here I suppose but I get the same outcome. Greenway is better but how much is debatable. Krebs v Geekie... idk but I suppose I must lean Geekie for now. I don't think he is special and Krebs grow a lot in his sophomore year. Geekie edges him out for now. Frederick is better than Olofsson on paper. So I give him the edge. That means in the end this is either an edge to Boston or if Krebs is slightly better a draw

ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS - TYSON JOST - KYLE OKPOSO /// MILAN LUCIC - PATRICK BROWN - OSKAR STEEN

Lucic is slow as crap. I am giving the edge to Zemgus here who at least can still get up and down the ice even with his rock hands. I think Jost can be better than Brown and I would expect him to be. If Krebs somehow ended up in this spot I 100% think krebs is better. Steen v Okposo... Well Steen could be good but I gotta trust Okposo here and I would trust Rousek over Steen too. I think our 4th line just offers more than Bostons. 

Offensively I think the 1st lines and 3rd lines are close. I think our 2nd line will be far better than Bostons and our 4th line will be better. Overall, the age and growth potential is better for Buffalo and they aren't adding in a bunch of newbies they hope gain instant chemistry. I think Buffalo will manage to out offense Boston. 

Defense

MATTIAS SAMUELSSON - RASMUS DAHLIN /// MATT GRZELCYK - CHARLIE MCAVOY

Grzelcyk is better than Muel. Sorry but it is true, they play differently but Boston has the edge there and I am unsure if Muel is good enough to close that gap. Now that brings us to McAvoy v. Dahlin. Dahlin smokes him offensively and I will say right now that Dahlin has not hit his offensive peak. McAvoy edged Dahlin defensively although that gap has narrowed significantly in the last year. I know some will flip out but the edge goes to Dahlin. He is just too Dynamic on offense and even though the Krueger Dahlin is still stuck in everyone from fans to voters brains, he is dam good defensively as well. McAvoy though is only a hair below here so overall the first pair goes to Boston. 

OWEN POWER - CONNOR CLIFTON /// HAMPUS LINDHOLM - BRANDON CARLO

Power will be better than Lindholm. There I said it. However right now the edge goes to Lindholm and might for a full nother season. Power could have a major glow up though and catch him but for now Lindholm is a full step above. Carlo v Clifton is different. I think Clifton will be better in an elevated role with Power and I have stated that regularly. I think Carlo is good though and so I am giving this a tie. I think Clifton is going to click with Power and it will be good. Carlo is better defensively so again it is the offense v defense thing again so I will call it a tie. That means that pairing 2 goes to Boston as well at least for 1 more year. I think Power will surpass things. 

ILYA LYUBUSHKIN - ERIK JOHNSON /// DEREK FORBORT - KEVIN SHATTENKIRK

Lyubshkin or Joker, I think both are better than Forbort. It just isn't that close to me but maybe I just haven't watched Forbort enough. Shattenkirk hasn't been very good for a couple of years but also Anaheim sucks. Johnson was bad last year but pretty good before that. Hmm what do I do here? I will call it a tie for now but I as always have more faith in Buffalo than out. Either way, I would give the 3rd pair to Buffalo with a slight edge. 

Boston's defense is really solid even with their losses. That top pair is pretty good even though I think Dahlin will surpass McAvoy if he has not already (I think he did) and we gotta hope that Muel will continue to improve. The 2nd pair I think all comes down to what Owen Power will be this year and that's a tough question. I think our 2nd pair is a notch below Bostons as we sit here in summer. Our 3rd pair IMPO is better. I also feel better about the depth on our 3rd pair. 

 

Conclusion: Buffalo's forward core is deeper and more talented. I do agree with Granato that offense is harder than defense. I think because of the loss of 2 of their top 6, Boston will have issues throughout the year compensating. Buffalo on the other hand will only get stronger offensively as the year goes on. Kulich and Quinn are only going to get closer to Buffalo. Once April hits, Benson, Savoie, maybe Östlund become options if injuries appear. There is just so much talent coming and Boston really can't say the same. Defensively Boston is ahead and it might last for a couple of years. I think Novikov and Power are the wild cards. If they both elevate their games by next year Buffalo can be better on defense. This year though, I think Boston is better but it is closer with the loss of Orlov and Clifton and the additions of year 2 power and Clifton. All in all I think Buffalo has more potential this year to be better than Boston. Boston though is a veteran team so they know how to win and have a good defense and goaltending tandem. In the end, I might lean towards Boston as being better but think the gap is far closer now than it was last year. Depends on how much regression occurs in Buffalo's scoring versus how much growth from the young guns we get compared to how quickly Boston comes together and if they can somehow not fall off the age cliff. I guess we shall see but I don't view Boston as the juggernaut they were. They remind me a lot of 2007 Buffalo Sabres where Briere and Drury left and the bottom dropped. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by LGR4GM

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Lines were pulled from LineCombos and idk how close Boston's are to reality but that is what I used. Buffalo had one edit done by me. Mitts went to Oloffson's spot and Olofsson slid to line 3. If you want to come in and complain because I did the lines wrong, have fun. I used what I had available. 

Forwards

JEFF SKINNER - TAGE THOMPSON - ALEX TUCH /// BRAD MARCHAND - PAVEL ZACHA - DAVID PASTRNAK

- Skinner is a step below Marchand but still a very good agitation winger. Edge to Boston. Thompson is better than Zacha, straight up better. Zacha might be better defensively but the sheer volume of Tage's scoring covers that. Pasta is better than Tuch, although I don't think Tuch has peaked. Overall, I think Boston's top line even with Zacha remains a point above. This gap is a lot closer without Bergeron.

JOHN JASON PETERKA - DYLAN COZENS - CASEY MITTELSTADT ///  JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CHARLIE COYLE - JAKE DEBRUSK

I think JJP will be better than JVR but at this point I would call it a draw. Again, I think JJP will be better and he has the potential to be better while JVR is declining. Cozens is better than Coyle. Coyle had slightly better defensive metrics but offensively Cozens is simply better. Again we have a case of a 31yr old versus a 22yr old and I will bet Cozens is better and Coyle declines. Advantage Buffalo. Debrusk v Mitts really comes down to which Mitts we get. Is it the 2nd half of the season Mitts, then I lean Mitts. Being with a shooter like Cozens and JJP, I think Mitts would excel versus Debrusk being with Coyle instead of Krejci is a decline. Conclusion is that Buffalo's 2nd line will be better than Boston's. 

JORDAN GREENWAY - PEYTON KREBS - VICTOR OLOFSSON /// A.J. GREER - MORGAN GEEKIE - TRENT FREDERIC

Greenway wasn't great but he's better than Greer. I could put Lucic here I suppose but I get the same outcome. Greenway is better but how much is debatable. Krebs v Geekie... idk but I suppose I must lean Geekie for now. I don't think he is special and Krebs grow a lot in his sophomore year. Geekie edges him out for now. Frederick is better than Olofsson on paper. So I give him the edge. That means in the end this is either an edge to Boston or if Krebs is slightly better a draw

ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS - TYSON JOST - KYLE OKPOSO /// MILAN LUCIC - PATRICK BROWN - OSKAR STEEN

Lucic is slow as crap. I am giving the edge to Zemgus here who at least can still get up and down the ice even with his rock hands. I think Jost can be better than Brown and I would expect him to be. If Krebs somehow ended up in this spot I 100% think krebs is better. Steen v Okposo... Well Steen could be good but I gotta trust Okposo here and I would trust Rousek over Steen too. I think our 4th line just offers more than Bostons. 

Offensively I think the 1st lines and 3rd lines are close. I think our 2nd line will be far better than Bostons and our 4th line will be better. Overall, the age and growth potential is better for Buffalo and they aren't adding in a bunch of newbies they hope gain instant chemistry. I think Buffalo will manage to out offense Boston. 

Defense

MATTIAS SAMUELSSON - RASMUS DAHLIN /// MATT GRZELCYK - CHARLIE MCAVOY

Grzelcyk is better than Muel. Sorry but it is true, they play differently but Boston has the edge there and I am unsure if Muel is good enough to close that gap. Now that brings us to McAvoy v. Dahlin. Dahlin smokes him offensively and I will say right now that Dahlin has not hit his offensive peak. McAvoy edged Dahlin defensively although that gap has narrowed significantly in the last year. I know some will flip out but the edge goes to Dahlin. He is just too Dynamic on offense and even though the Krueger Dahlin is still stuck in everyone from fans to voters brains, he is dam good defensively as well. McAvoy though is only a hair below here so overall the first pair goes to Boston. 

OWEN POWER - CONNOR CLIFTON /// HAMPUS LINDHOLM - BRANDON CARLO

Power will be better than Lindholm. There I said it. However right now the edge goes to Lindholm and might for a full nother season. Power could have a major glow up though and catch him but for now Lindholm is a full step above. Carlo v Clifton is different. I think Clifton will be better in an elevated role with Power and I have stated that regularly. I think Carlo is good though and so I am giving this a tie. I think Clifton is going to click with Power and it will be good. Carlo is better defensively so again it is the offense v defense thing again so I will call it a tie. That means that pairing 2 goes to Boston as well at least for 1 more year. I think Power will surpass things. 

ILYA LYUBUSHKIN - ERIK JOHNSON /// DEREK FORBORT - KEVIN SHATTENKIRK

Lyubshkin or Joker, I think both are better than Forbort. It just isn't that close to me but maybe I just haven't watched Forbort enough. Shattenkirk hasn't been very good for a couple of years but also Anaheim sucks. Johnson was bad last year but pretty good before that. Hmm what do I do here? I will call it a tie for now but I as always have more faith in Buffalo than out. Either way, I would give the 3rd pair to Buffalo with a slight edge. 

Boston's defense is really solid even with their losses. That top pair is pretty good even though I think Dahlin will surpass McAvoy if he has not already (I think he did) and we gotta hope that Muel will continue to improve. The 2nd pair I think all comes down to what Owen Power will be this year and that's a tough question. I think our 2nd pair is a notch below Bostons as we sit here in summer. Our 3rd pair IMPO is better. I also feel better about the depth on our 3rd pair. 

 

Conclusion: Buffalo's forward core is deeper and more talented. I do agree with Granato that offense is harder than defense. I think because of the loss of 2 of their top 6, Boston will have issues throughout the year compensating. Buffalo on the other hand will only get stronger offensively as the year goes on. Kulich and Quinn are only going to get closer to Buffalo. Once April hits, Benson, Savoie, maybe Östlund become options if injuries appear. There is just so much talent coming and Boston really can't say the same. Defensively Boston is ahead and it might last for a couple of years. I think Novikov and Power are the wild cards. If they both elevate their games by next year Buffalo can be better on defense. This year though, I think Boston is better but it is closer with the loss of Orlov and Clifton and the additions of year 2 power and Clifton. All in all I think Buffalo has more potential this year to be better than Boston. Boston though is a veteran team so they know how to win and have a good defense and goaltending tandem. In the end, I might lean towards Boston as being better but think the gap is far closer now than it was last year. Depends on how much regression occurs in Buffalo's scoring versus how much growth from the young guns we get compared to how quickly Boston comes together and if they can somehow not fall off the age cliff. I guess we shall see but I don't view Boston as the juggernaut they were. They remind me a lot of 2007 Buffalo Sabres where Briere and Drury left and the bottom dropped. 

There's a lot here and I have only so much time on this planet--but it's a VERY thorough analysis and it was a great read.  It deserves a better response than I can give.

Rather than go on and on about things we agree upon, I'll hit the differences:

1F (I'm using this for forward lines and I'll use 1D for pairings):  All of this presumes the absence of Kreijci (is that how that Scrabble name is spelled?), but let's proceed with that hypothesis.  Skinner is more than a step behind the Rat.  Pastrnak is the most valuable forward among BOTH lines, even if Thompson repeats himself.  I'd say that Boston's 1F is a couple of increments better than Buffalo's.

2F  When Peterka establishes himself as better than van Riemsdyk, I'll give him credit for it.  He hasn't yet and shouldn't be presumed to do so.  Cozens is my favorite young Sabre forward, but Charlie Coyle is somethin' else.  If they were the same age, I'd trade Coz for Coyle in a second.  You know my feelings on Mitts; if he can keep his progression, I'll lay off, but from what I've seen historically (more than just 2023), I have to go with DeBrusk. Boston 2F is an increment or two above Buffalo.

3F  This is a very interesting one.  The way you have the lines constructed, I am inclined to agree that it's somewhat close to a draw.  If Boston shifts *****face--I mean Lucic--up to this line, then I think their thug is better than our thug.  On the other hand, does Oloffson really play with Krebs and Greenway?  I don't see that.  He needs to be set up, and Krebs (hopefully future Peca) and Greenway (hitter not carrier) aren't going to do that.  1 increment for Boston.

4F  What I love about Buffalo's fourth line is that it isn't a pure "energy" or "checking" or "thug" line, even as it was in 2006.  Instead, it's composed of defensively-responsible forwards who can slow a game down and kill the other team's momentum.  In other words, it's exactly what a "third line" was in the late 90s and early 00s. I rate this line two increments above Boston's bully line.  Maybe even three, because Buffalo's can actually play hockey.

=====

1D  I don't think that Grelczyk is so much better than Samuelsson that it overcomes Dahlin's dominance.  Dahlin is that freaking good and Samuelsson is close enough to Grel.  McAvoy is good, too, but he's only so good.  I'm giving a +1 to Buffalo here.

2D  The first thing is, I still think Granato should and will start out the year with a Power-Johnson pair.  But let's look at your construction rather than mine.  I think Power can take another stop forward (but part of the reason I think that is because I see Johnson with him, I admit); I see this as a wash at worst and maybe even another increment for Buffalo.

3D.  Again, accepting your pairings, I think Boston is a step up here.  

=====

Goalies:  Covered in my post upthread.  Because of the importance of the position, this is four increments in Boston's favor.

=====

My conclusion is that Boston's roster is ahead of Buffalo's, by three-and-a-half Eleven increments, even if Krqbsi retires.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Eleven

[dudacek]

Good stuff guys.

LGR, Peyton Krebs is already better than Morgan Geekie and that will become more pronounced this year. Otherwise, I'm a little surprised at how much I agree with this.

Eleven, yours reads like you don't believe Skinner Tuch Tage Cozens and Mitts are as good as they were last year (fair) and you still believe Marchand, Lucic, van Reimsdyk are still what they were 3 years ago (not so much). lumbering 31-year-old 16-goal Coyle over speedy age 22 with 31 goals Cozens is...interesting.

Edited July 27, 2023 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

46 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Good stuff guys.

LGR, Peyton Krebs is already better than Morgan Geekie and that will become more pronounced this year. Otherwise, I'm a little surprised at how much I agree with this.

Eleven, yours reads like you don't believe Skinner Tuch Tage Cozens and Mitts are as good as they were last year (fair) and you still believe Marchand, Lucic, van Reimsdyk are still what they were 3 years ago (not so much). lumbering 31-year-old 16-goal Coyle over speedy age 22 with 31 goals Cozens is...interesting.

I think Krebs will be better than Geekie. Just can't give it to him until we see it. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

 

2F  When Peterka establishes himself as better than van Riemsdyk, I'll give him credit for it.  He hasn't yet and shouldn't be presumed to do so.  Cozens is my favorite young Sabre forward, but Charlie Coyle is somethin' else.  If they were the same age, I'd trade Coz for Coyle in a second.  You know my feelings on Mitts; if he can keep his progression, I'll lay off, but from what I've seen historically (more than just 2023), I have to go with DeBrusk. Boston 2F is an increment or two above Buffalo.

 

I think most of this is exceedingly wrong. 

Trading 22 year old Cozens for 22 year old Coyles is nuts. Coyle best season 56pts and 21g. He did one at 24 and one at 23. Cozens best to date is 31g and 68pts at age 22. 

Mittelstadt is better than Debrusk. 

JJP will be better than JVR this year. 

[mjd1001]

As far as Boston, strange things can happen when players are forced to move up in the lineup...meaning sometimes 2nd and 3rd lines that seem really good in those roles you want to move up to a 1st or 2nd line role and it just doesn't work.  When Briere and Drury left Buffalo, Connoly was hurt and Roy didn't quite look like the #1 center people were hoping he would be.  Bergeron and Kreiji, have pretty much gotten top line forward minutes in the last 10 years for Boston (minus the year Kreiji went back to Europe).  Its not just losing them that is the loss...you may very well find out that without them there, guys like Debrusk and Coyle (and others) simply are not even as good as you thought they would be when more pressure/more ice time/better competition is what they are facing every night.

[dudacek]

49 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Krebs will be better than Geekie. Just can't give it to him until we see it. 

I think we saw it down the stretch last year.

They had virtually identical goal and point totals over a full year, while Krebs had better possession stats.

Krebs is faster, more skilled, plays with a lot more pace and is harder to play against.

Geekie was getting healthy scratched by the Kraken and didn’t get a $1.4 million qualifying offer. I’m not sure what people are liking about his game.

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by dudacek

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

lumbering 31-year-old 16-goal Coyle over speedy age 22 with 31 goals Cozens

Not what I wrote.

50 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Trading 22 year old Cozens for 22 year old Coyles is nuts. Coyle best season 56pts and 21g. He did one at 24 and one at 23. Cozens best to date is 31g and 68pts at age 22. 

Yes what I wrote.

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Not what I wrote.

You didn’t pick one or the other, implying the possibility

[DarthEbriate]

22 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Yes what I wrote.

Boston would make that trade in a heartbeat. They might even throw in Swayman to make the money work for them.