Looking at the Atlantic Division

[sweetlou]

With a way too early look at the Atlantic Division.  The Sabres have improved their defense over last year and barring any more movement, are going to rely on the young goaltenders to get them into the playoffs.  I struggled with seeing other teams movement and wanting the Sabres to do more.  As I started to look around the division though, I feel other teams have taken a step back.  I feel the Metropolitan is stronger and going to surpass the Atlantic this year.

Boston- Pasta is a top player, but will he be able to carry a team if Bergeron and Krejci don't return.  They have also lost Bertuzzi, Orlov, Hall, Foligno, and Clifton. Even with solid goaltending they will slip.  Prediction- 90 points

Toronto- They will continue to score, but defense and goaltending will be the big issue for them this year.  They will outscore their opponents to 1st in the division.  Prediction- 112 points.

Tampa Bay- The losses of Killorn, Colton, Perry, Maroon, Cole, and Bellemare will hurt more than most realize.  They also don't currently have a proven back up to spell Vasey. They started to show signs at the end of last year of a team that was struggling and it will show this year.  Prediction- 94 points

Florida- Goaltending will be the determing factor on how this team performs.  They still have a solid team with great leaders and players who know their roles. Prediction- 106 points.

Ottawa- Still a fairly young team looking to turn the corner just like the Sabres.  If they have a couple of their young guys have break out years like Stutzle did last year they will be even more dangerous.  Can Korpisalo return to his form of a few years ago and be a number 1 goaltender?  Prediction- 88 points

Detroit- They have made noise two years in a row with players coming off of career years in the UFA market.  I still don't think they have improved. DeBrincat will help, but they still lack goal scoring.  Just like other teams goaltending will determine how well the team does.  Prediction- 83 points

Montreal- Young guys show imrpovement in overall play.  Defense and goaltending still questionable. Prediction- 72 points

 

Sabres-  If Granato can build the team defense and get solid goaltending this team can squeak into the playoffs.  Prediction- 99 points and good enough for 3rd in division.

[mjd1001]

As of now, I think Toronto is just as good as they were last year.  Differnet players in the middle of the lineup, but I don't see them as noticably better or noticably worse.  With that said, They had 111 points last year I expect that to come down SLIGHTLY.  Why? Montreal will be a bit better. Detroit about the same or better. Ottawa and Buffalo should be better.  Florida should be better in the regular season.  Only Boston and Tampa will be worse. There aren't enough games and points against those 2 teams Toronto can gain compared to points they can/might lose vs the rest of the improving division.

[LGR4GM]

I was thinking on this the other day. I think the Atlantic may take a step back while the metro edges past.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

With a way too early look at the Atlantic Division.  The Sabres have improved their defense over last year and barring any more movement, are going to rely on the young goaltenders to get them into the playoffs.  I struggled with seeing other teams movement and wanting the Sabres to do more.  As I started to look around the division though, I feel other teams have taken a step back.  I feel the Metropolitan is stronger and going to surpass the Atlantic this year.

Boston- Pasta is a top player, but will he be able to carry a team if Bergeron and Krejci don't return.  They have also lost Bertuzzi, Orlov, Hall, Foligno, and Clifton. Even with solid goaltending they will slip.  Prediction- 90 points

Toronto- They will continue to score, but defense and goaltending will be the big issue for them this year.  They will outscore their opponents to 1st in the division.  Prediction- 112 points.

Tampa Bay- The losses of Killorn, Colton, Perry, Maroon, Cole, and Bellemare will hurt more than most realize.  They also don't currently have a proven back up to spell Vasey. They started to show signs at the end of last year of a team that was struggling and it will show this year.  Prediction- 94 points

Florida- Goaltending will be the determing factor on how this team performs.  They still have a solid team with great leaders and players who know their roles. Prediction- 106 points.

Ottawa- Still a fairly young team looking to turn the corner just like the Sabres.  If they have a couple of their young guys have break out years like Stutzle did last year they will be even more dangerous.  Can Korpisalo return to his form of a few years ago and be a number 1 goaltender?  Prediction- 88 points

Detroit- They have made noise two years in a row with players coming off of career years in the UFA market.  I still don't think they have improved. DeBrincat will help, but they still lack goal scoring.  Just like other teams goaltending will determine how well the team does.  Prediction- 83 points

Montreal- Young guys show imrpovement in overall play.  Defense and goaltending still questionable. Prediction- 72 points

 

Sabres-  If Granato can build the team defense and get solid goaltending this team can squeak into the playoffs.  Prediction- 99 points and good enough for 3rd in division.

Overall agree with most of the analysis.  But you are predicting the Bruins to lose more than 20 more games outright than they did all of the last regular season (135 ->94 points which is 0-20-1 worse than they were last year).  Am expecting a huge falloff, but can't see them being on the wrong side of 100 points this year.  Expecting them or the Sabres to be the 3 seed in the division with the other likely the 2nd wildcard.

Yes, the Metro's top 3 are better than the Atlantic's top 3 top to bottom (in a 1 to 1 ranking) but after their top 3 (Carolina, Joisey, Rags) am not overly impressed with any of them.  Would take Buffalo or Boston over the Aisles, Pens, and Caps.  The BJ's will be better, but expect they're in the Otter/Red Wing category and Filly is still in Hab territory until they aren't.

[sweetlou]

I also expect some of the teams in the West to be better than last year.

[sweetlou]

Why the Sabres should make the playoffs this year with pretty much the same team.

Games from last year that they regret not getting a point. 

11/8- lost 4-1 to Arizona at home

11/15- lost 5-4 to Vancouver at home

11/16- lost 4-1 to Ottawa at home

1/9- lost 4-0 to Philadelphia at home

1/17- lost 4-3(ot) to Chicago in Chicago

2/28- lost 5-3 to Columbus at home

3/17- lost 5-2 to Philadelphia in Philadelphia

3/27- lost 4-3(so) to Montreal at home

There may have been a few more games that we needed to win against teams above the Sabres in standings, but if they had just gone .500 in above games they have 7 more points and are in playoffs!!   That also gets them over .500 at home.  The Arizona, Philly, and Columbus home games were must wins and they were not ready.  Granato has to make sure that doesn't happen again if last year was truly a growing year.

[JohnC]

39 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

Why the Sabres should make the playoffs this year with pretty much the same team.

Games from last year that they regret not getting a point. 

11/8- lost 4-1 to Arizona at home

11/15- lost 5-4 to Vancouver at home

11/16- lost 4-1 to Ottawa at home

1/9- lost 4-0 to Philadelphia at home

1/17- lost 4-3(ot) to Chicago in Chicago

2/28- lost 5-3 to Columbus at home

3/17- lost 5-2 to Philadelphia in Philadelphia

3/27- lost 4-3(so) to Montreal at home

There may have been a few more games that we needed to win against teams above the Sabres in standings, but if they had just gone .500 in above games they have 7 more points and are in playoffs!!   That also gets them over .500 at home.  The Arizona, Philly, and Columbus home games were must wins and they were not ready.  Granato has to make sure that doesn't happen again if last year was truly a growing year.

The problem with "we should have won" these games approach to reviewing the past season is that every team has the same "we should have won" these games. It's a long and grinding season that includes long and exhausting road trips and not always well known injured/impaired players. It's simply part of the season. What often isn't noted in these type of "we should have " reviews is the recognition that the Sabres won a number of games that they were fortunate to have won. The vicissitudes of a season are experienced by every team in the league. The bottom line is that your record is your record. 

[mjd1001]

On 7/24/2023 at 8:53 AM, JohnC said:

The problem with "we should have won" these games approach to reviewing the past season is that every team has the same "we should have won" these games. It's a long and grinding season that includes long and exhausting road trips and not always well known injured/impaired players. It's simply part of the season. What often isn't noted in these type of "we should have " reviews is the recognition that the Sabres won a number of games that they were fortunate to have won. The vicissitudes of a season are experienced by every team in the league. The bottom line is that your record is your record. 

As you mentioned, all other teams can have a similar list of "should have won" games.

Also, if you bring up the 'should have won' games, maybe you should take away points for the 'should have lost' games.  I'm thinking of the many games the Sabres played last year they won but were outshot and outplayed (just one example would be early last year where they played in Edmonton and basically got smoked on the ice by Edmonton but Comrie made over 40 saves to give them the win)

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

As you mentioned, all other teams can have a similar list of "should have won" games.

Also, if you bring up the 'should have won' games, maybe you should take away points for the 'should have lost' games.  I'm thinking of the many games the Sabres played last year they won but were outshot and outplayed (just one example would be early last year where they played in Edmonton and basically got smoked on the ice by Edmonton but Comrie made over 40 saves to give them the win)

Hockey has some unique traits that are not as prevalent as other sports. As you point out, because of the exceptional play of your goaltender, although your team is thoroughly outplayed, can result in a win. Conversely, your own team can thoroughly outplay the opposition, and you can still lose because of a flukish goal from an unintentional deflection off of your own player's skate. There are more flukish plays that affect the outcome than in many other sports. Over a long season, it usually balances out. 

[PerreaultForever]

Leafs win the President's trophy this year - and go out in the playoffs first round.

Overall I expect things to be even tighter this coming season than last so regular season games will mean more as it'll be a dog fight for getting in the playoffs. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Is Boston even a Wild Card team without Bergeron and Krejci?

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Is Boston even a Wild Card team without Bergeron and Krejci?

I would be surprised if the Leafs miss and the Habs make it.

Nothing else would shock me.

[MattPie]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Leafs win the President's trophy this year - and go out in the playoffs first round.

That would be delicious.

[Pimlach]

On 7/26/2023 at 4:36 PM, MattPie said:

That would be delicious.

Especially if the loss was to Buffalo.  

Edited July 28, 2023 by Pimlach

[Curt]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Is Boston even a Wild Card team without Bergeron and Krejci?

That’s what I’m thinking about.  I have a hard time projecting them to miss the playoffs, but how far can you get with a C group of Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle and Morgan Geekie?

[Eleven]

Yahoo Sports had an article on my phone this morning--I can't find it now--predicting the 5 teams most likely to break their playoff droughts.  #1 is the Sabres.  but #2 is Ottawa and #3 is Detroit, and I'm wondering just which of Boston, Toronto, Florida, and Tampa they think are going to nosedive, since only 5 teams from the division can get in.  Boston is somewhat still Boston even without Bergeron and Kreiji, and I don't see the other three of that group missing.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Eleven

[pi2000]

Studies show that with league average goaltending on home ice, the Sabres make the playoffs last season.

 

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by pi2000

[Weave]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Is Boston even a Wild Card team without Bergeron and Krejci?

A dead puck era game plan and decent goaltending.  I could see them as buyers at the deadline.

[Curt]

 

Thoughts?

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Yahoo Sports had an article on my phone this morning--I can't find it now--predicting the 5 teams most likely to break their playoff droughts.  #1 is the Sabres.  but #2 is Ottawa and #3 is Detroit, and I'm wondering just which of Boston, Toronto, Florida, and Tampa they think are going to nosedive, since only 5 teams from the division can get in.  Boston is somewhat still Boston even without Bergeron and Kreiji, and I don't see the other three of that group missing.

Florida barely made the playoffs and despite their run they could easily be a few points out if they do not get the goaltending. They are really a who knows team that could finish high up or right out imo. Boston and Tampa could both easily slide out if their seasons go bad in terms of luck and injury. 

We obviously have to get the goaltending, as do the other two, but most of all from those teams it's going to be about injuries and depth. None of those three really have great depth and if any of them have a rash of injuries it'll basically end their chances imo. 

There's also the other wildcard because after Carolina, New Jersey and probably the Rangers, there's nothing overly impressive and several other fading rosters, but it's going to be close. 

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I would be surprised if the Leafs miss and the Habs make it.

Nothing else would shock me.

Wouldn't be shocked if the B's miss the playoffs, but would definitely be surprised.  Yes, they're F's are a mess right now (minus Pastarnak and the 70 or so yo Rat Faced Git) but the D and G are still solid to very good.

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Wouldn't be shocked if the B's miss the playoffs, but would definitely be surprised.  Yes, they're F's are a mess right now (minus Pastarnak and the 70 or so yo Rat Faced Git) but the D and G are still solid to very good.

And they’ve got history and a 40-point cushion to play with.

Like others have said, they’re in until somebody knocks them out.

But I do think their forwards are the worst group in the division and that shouldn’t be ignored.

Zacha is going to have a career year with Pastrnak, but goals will be hard to come by.

[PerreaultForever]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And they’ve got history and a 40-point cushion to play with.

Like others have said, they’re in until somebody knocks them out.

But I do think their forwards are the worst group in the division and that shouldn’t be ignored.

Zacha is going to have a career year with Pastrnak, but goals will be hard to come by.

"worst" might be a bit much but it's not great. A lot will depend on whether or not they can get more out of Geekie and how much Marchand has left. He looked a lot slower on those bionic hips and without his partner Bergeron his production might plummet. Unless some miracles happen like JVR turning into a scoring threat again or some prospect suddenly blossoms unexpectedly I don't see much offense at all. 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

There's also the other wildcard

That's why I wrote 5.

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

"worst" might be a bit much but it's not great. A lot will depend on whether or not they can get more out of Geekie and how much Marchand has left. He looked a lot slower on those bionic hips and without his partner Bergeron his production might plummet. Unless some miracles happen like JVR turning into a scoring threat again or some prospect suddenly blossoms unexpectedly I don't see much offense at all. 

I don’t think it’s hyperbole:

Pastrnak is a star and Marchand is fading but still a 1st liner

Frederic, Coyle, Debrusk and Zacha are good middle-sixers.

That leaves them 3 players short of a good top 9 and their depth is awful

Lucic is done and Van Rymsdyk is barely hanging on, Geekie’s 25 and never hit 30 points, and Greer, Lauko, Brown, Megna and Boqvist are fringe.

You know someone will emerge because it’s Boston, but whose forward corps is worse?