2023-2024 Sabres lineup

[French Collection]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Seriously?  Quinn had 14 of the 293 goals the team scored last season.  Losing Quinn for half the season is disappointing but it’s not exactly a death blow to the offense.  

The goaltending is potentially scary, except we know the worst case for Comrie and UPL and the Sabres proved last year they can still win with those two in net and Levi is an upgrade on both.  

Also their job should be easier next season as the upgraded defense helps limit the number of high danger chances against helping all 3 goalies.  I believe that additions of Johnson and Clifton might be good for a reduction of at least 20 goals against. 

Pre injury Quinn is one of the guys I could see having a significant increase this year. You are right that his 14 goals is not a deal breaker.

If Quinn can manage to be back for 30 games he can score 10 goals. Whoever replaces him on the roster (Rousek?) should put a few in up to that point.

The team has lost 2 goals from Asplund, 2 goals from Hinestroza and 1 from Pilut.

I expect offensive growth from JJP, Krebs, Greenway and Power. With decent health I think their offense remains close to the 280-300 goal range.

 

[Randall Flagg]

52 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Out of those 6 

Skinner and Tuch might lessen 

But I don’t see Thompson, Cozens or Peterka vanishing into an ether. Quinn was spotty through the year and while his loss hurts, a solid full year from Mitts will overcome that and more.

Goaltending is concerning but you are speaking out both sides of your mouth here. Levi isn’t highly regarded due to inexperience. UPL and Comrie are below average but again how can any model state that UPL or Comrie have played plenty of bad games to be considered yet Levi can’t play enough good games to be considered good. What exactly is that number? 20 games? 30 games? 40? So to say the model isn’t penalizing us for young players whom are inexperienced is incorrect. 

Thompson doesn't have to vanish to experience statistical regression. He could put up 35 goals and 80 points and vastly improve his defense, but that leaves the team short 14 goals from last year

47-47-94 was a CRAZY season for Tage and should by no means be expected as a baseline even if he is capable of more in theory. That's part of why I'm still so mad we wasted it due to problems obvious before last October 

[nfreeman]

On 7/17/2023 at 10:06 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/4696719/2023/07/17/sabres-roster-projection-depth-free-agency/

Here is their best guess of the opening night roster

L1 - Skinner TNT Tuch - Why mess with success?

L2 - JJP Cozens Mitts - is this a place for Kulich or Savoie to earn a roster spot?

L3 - Greenway Krebs VO - Playmaker Krebs gets a sniper, and VO gets to play with 2 guys who play 200 Feet.

L4 - Girgensons Jost KO - 

Extras - Rousek and possibly Savoie

D1 - Samuelsson Dahlin

D2 - Power Clifton

D3 - Jokiharju Johnson

extra: Lyubushkin

Out: Stillman and Bryson - They could try to sneak one or both down to Rochester if TP is willing to carry the big salary in Rochester.  Joki has the most trade value.

Goalies - Levi and UPL - Comrie getting sent down or traded when camp ends.  

 

I think this lineup is by far the most likely scenario.

I also think there is almost zero possibility that Joki isn't in the starting lineup, that the top line is reshuffled or that Mitts doesn't slide up to Cozens' line to replace Quinn.

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think this lineup is by far the most likely scenario.

I also think there is almost zero possibility that Joki isn't in the starting lineup, that the top line is reshuffled or that Mitts doesn't slide up to Cozens' line to replace Quinn.

I watched assistant coach Dan Girardi on Spitting Chiclets in a video that sounded like it was done just before Free Agency.

He sure talked like the Sabres had a good young core 4 on the blueline. I mean, he praised the other 3 more, but it sure sounded like Henri was a valued piece.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What are the odds that the Sabres make a significant addition (trade or signing) opening day?

With 10D and 3G it’s easy to envision a subtraction or two, but not really any additions.  Still the rumors persist.  I’ve seen goalies Thompson, Markstrom and Hellebuyck on the Sabres radar.  On defense I’ve seen Hanifin and Pesce. I’ve even seen one on Conor Garland to Buffalo.  
 

Despite all the rumors, I’d put the odds of a substantial deal or signing at 25 to 1.

[Crusader1969]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What are the odds that the Sabres make a significant addition (trade or signing) opening day?

With 10D and 3G it’s easy to envision a subtraction or two, but not really any additions.  Still the rumors persist.  I’ve seen goalies Thompson, Markstrom and Hellebuyck on the Sabres radar.  On defense I’ve seen Hanifin and Pesce. I’ve even seen one on Conor Garland to Buffalo.  
 

Despite all the rumors, I’d put the odds of a substantial deal or signing at 25 to 1.

Something’s gotta give at some point 

think the “ask” for a goalie is too high still.  
Trading Jokiharju RHD as part of a package that lands Hanifan LHD just makes too much sense 

[sabremike]

The problem with goaltending is that the position is so volatile and consistent goalies are incredibly hard to find. For example: in 5 years Jordan Binnington went from Stanley Cup winning hero to albatross who may soon be out of the league. Bob got a gigantic contract and besides the last playoff round has generally stunk out the joint and he was seen as a top 5 guy at the time signed. Giving up legit assets for a goalie is incredibly risky and I can understand why KA is very hesitant to do so. 

[FrenchConnection44]

Lance Lysowski recent analysis

On Goaltenders

Eric Comrie and his $1.8 million salary-cap hit will be traded or assigned to Rochester before the season begins. I don’t expect anyone to want to take his salary via trade or waivers, unless someone with cap space has an injury at the position, so don't be surprised if Comrie begins the season in Rochester.

On Olofsson & the Forward Position

Sabres are unlikely to trade Victor Olofsson with Quinn out until late December or January. There’s risk in keeping Olofsson, who is entering the final season of his contract after he totaled a career-high 28 goals. General manager Kevyn Adams doesn’t like to lose a player for nothing, but he can keep Olofsson as a rental and try to work out a trade before the deadline once Quinn is back if someone such as Jiri Kulich emerges as a difference-maker.

In addition to keeping Olofsson, the Sabres will try to fill the void internally with Kulich, Lukas Rousek, Brett Murray, Linus Weissbach and Brandon Biro competing for a spot out of training camp. There’s finally enough NHL-ready talent in the pipeline to have competition

On The Glut of Defensemen

The obvious odd man out is Jacob Bryson after his challenging season, but will a team want to move a draft pick to acquire his $1.85 million cap hit? His salary might also cause him to be unclaimed on waivers, which would put Bryson in the same situation that Anders Bjork was in last season. Bjork’s $1.8 million salary was buried in Rochester until a trade could be completed.

The player to watch is Ilya Lyubushkin. Fans are speculating that it could be Henri Jokiharju on the move, but Lyubushkin is entering the final year of a contract with a $2.75 million salary-cap hit. A contending team unable to add to their blue line in free agency will be interested in adding his right-handed shot and physical approach.

On Replacing Jack Quinn

There's too much talent on this team for the Sabres to bank on another rookie to replace Quinn. Sign Tomas Tatar. Make a trade with a cap-crunched team to offload a defenseman for a forward. You can't make the playoffs between October and January, but you can dig yourself a big enough hole to make it challenging to contend in the season's second half.

Expectations for Dahlin / Power Deals

Based on comparable contracts to defensemen such as Cale Makar (Colorado) and Adam Fox (New York Rangers), I expect Dahlin's deal to be eight years, with an annual cap hit of $10 million to $10.5 million. Power is unlikely to sign long-term so soon into his career, but he's an ideal candidate for a bridge contract. A three-year, $21 million pact would make sense.

Lineup Predictions / Possibilities

Lysowski: Here are some lines and defense pairings with the talent on the depth chart:

Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch.

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Matt Savoie. !!!

Jordan Greenway – Casey Mittelstadt – Victor Olofsson.

Zemgus Girgensons – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo.

Rasmus Dahlin – Mattias Samuelsson.

Owen Power – Connor Clifton.

Henri Jokiharju - Erik Johnson.

Extras: Ilya Lyubushkin (defenseman), Riley Stillman (defenseman) and Tyson Jost (forward).

This is a challenging exercise because it is unclear what the Sabres plan to do with Savoie, who's too young to spend the entire regular season in Rochester. He's probably too advanced to return to the Western Hockey League, so I'd give him a chance to prove he's ready for the NHL.

Granato can rotate Savoie in and out of the lineup based on the opponent.

If the forward group remains healthy and Savoie struggles, I'd sit him long enough to assign him to Rochester on a conditioning assignment. He can then head to the IIHF World Junior Championship with Canada and reunite with Zach Benson in the WHL until joining the Amerks at the end of his season. Kulich or Rousek can be assigned to Buffalo once Savoie departs. 

[FrenchConnection44]

It seems to me that given the patience Adams has, he will want to keep UPL and see him continue to develop. As long as he doesn’t totally suck in camp and the preseason. And I think there is still hope for him. He was a talented prospect. Has the size and some quality raw tools. Needs to work but the potential is there. He needs to be able to go 40 games. Comrie has a higher floor right now but not nearly the ceiling UPL has, imo. 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

It seems to me that given the patience Adams has, he will want to keep UPL and see him continue to develop. As long as he doesn’t totally suck in camp and the preseason. And I think there is still hope for him. He was a talented prospect. Has the size and some quality raw tools. Needs to work but the potential is there. He needs to be able to go 40 games. Comrie has a higher floor right now but not nearly the ceiling UPL has, imo. 

UPL has been one of the very worst goalies in whatever league he's played in for about 5 straight seasons now

 

Thanks for pointing that out @tom webster, it is a great fact for highlighting the lunacy of our goaltending situation 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

It seems to me that given the patience Adams has, he will want to keep UPL and see him continue to develop. As long as he doesn’t totally suck in camp and the preseason. And I think there is still hope for him. He was a talented prospect. Has the size and some quality raw tools. Needs to work but the potential is there. He needs to be able to go 40 games. Comrie has a higher floor right now but not nearly the ceiling UPL has, imo. 

We gotta stop assuming just because a goalie has size they'll develop into anything. 

I think UPL has a low ceiling and a low floor. 

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Lance Lysowski recent analysis

On Goaltenders

Eric Comrie and his $1.8 million salary-cap hit will be traded or assigned to Rochester before the season begins. I don’t expect anyone to want to take his salary via trade or waivers, unless someone with cap space has an injury at the position, so don't be surprised if Comrie begins the season in Rochester.

On Olofsson & the Forward Position

Sabres are unlikely to trade Victor Olofsson with Quinn out until late December or January. There’s risk in keeping Olofsson, who is entering the final season of his contract after he totaled a career-high 28 goals. General manager Kevyn Adams doesn’t like to lose a player for nothing, but he can keep Olofsson as a rental and try to work out a trade before the deadline once Quinn is back if someone such as Jiri Kulich emerges as a difference-maker.

In addition to keeping Olofsson, the Sabres will try to fill the void internally with Kulich, Lukas Rousek, Brett Murray, Linus Weissbach and Brandon Biro competing for a spot out of training camp. There’s finally enough NHL-ready talent in the pipeline to have competition

On The Glut of Defensemen

The obvious odd man out is Jacob Bryson after his challenging season, but will a team want to move a draft pick to acquire his $1.85 million cap hit? His salary might also cause him to be unclaimed on waivers, which would put Bryson in the same situation that Anders Bjork was in last season. Bjork’s $1.8 million salary was buried in Rochester until a trade could be completed.

The player to watch is Ilya Lyubushkin. Fans are speculating that it could be Henri Jokiharju on the move, but Lyubushkin is entering the final year of a contract with a $2.75 million salary-cap hit. A contending team unable to add to their blue line in free agency will be interested in adding his right-handed shot and physical approach.

On Replacing Jack Quinn

There's too much talent on this team for the Sabres to bank on another rookie to replace Quinn. Sign Tomas Tatar. Make a trade with a cap-crunched team to offload a defenseman for a forward. You can't make the playoffs between October and January, but you can dig yourself a big enough hole to make it challenging to contend in the season's second half.

Expectations for Dahlin / Power Deals

Based on comparable contracts to defensemen such as Cale Makar (Colorado) and Adam Fox (New York Rangers), I expect Dahlin's deal to be eight years, with an annual cap hit of $10 million to $10.5 million. Power is unlikely to sign long-term so soon into his career, but he's an ideal candidate for a bridge contract. A three-year, $21 million pact would make sense.

Lineup Predictions / Possibilities

Lysowski: Here are some lines and defense pairings with the talent on the depth chart:

Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch.

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Matt Savoie. !!!

Jordan Greenway – Casey Mittelstadt – Victor Olofsson.

Zemgus Girgensons – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo.

Rasmus Dahlin – Mattias Samuelsson.

Owen Power – Connor Clifton.

Henri Jokiharju - Erik Johnson.

Extras: Ilya Lyubushkin (defenseman), Riley Stillman (defenseman) and Tyson Jost (forward).

This is a challenging exercise because it is unclear what the Sabres plan to do with Savoie, who's too young to spend the entire regular season in Rochester. He's probably too advanced to return to the Western Hockey League, so I'd give him a chance to prove he's ready for the NHL.

Granato can rotate Savoie in and out of the lineup based on the opponent.

If the forward group remains healthy and Savoie struggles, I'd sit him long enough to assign him to Rochester on a conditioning assignment. He can then head to the IIHF World Junior Championship with Canada and reunite with Zach Benson in the WHL until joining the Amerks at the end of his season. Kulich or Rousek can be assigned to Buffalo once Savoie departs. 

I'm over the idea of wasting Savoie on the bench until he can play 5 games and Rochester and then go to the wjc, a team he didn't make last year. If he doesn't make it, send him back to the whl in October. 

[FrenchConnection44]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We gotta stop assuming just because a goalie has size they'll develop into anything. 

I think UPL has a low ceiling and a low floor. 

I'm over the idea of wasting Savoie on the bench until he can play 5 games and Rochester and then go to the wjc, a team he didn't make last year. If he doesn't make it, send him back to the whl in October. 

I agree that size does not project that a goalie will become great or very good.

That isn’t what I was saying. I was simply noting that the raw components are there.

And either Adams and the Sabres don’t know anything and fans here do or they have seen something in him. In spite of his struggles. 

GMs are not always correct, of course, but it also ain’t nothing. And Adams has been excellent at finding talent and has also been right with his patience on a lot of players who were trashed in forums before (like Tage). Given his track record with talent, I’m content to give him and the scouts the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

Edited July 21, 2023 by FrenchConnection44

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

I agree that size does not project that a goalie will become great or very good.

That isn’t what I was saying. I was simply noting that the raw components are there.

And either Adams and the Sabres don’t know anything and fans here do or they have seen something in him. In spite of his struggles. 

GMs are not always correct, of course, but it also ain’t nothing. And Adams has been excellent at finding talent and has also been right with his patience on a lot of players who were trashed in forums before (like Tage). Given his track record with talent, I’m content to give him and the scouts the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

I'm not, in fact I think it's a fallacy to blindly trust someone's judgements because they were right on something else.  It's always better to use the information you have to judge the new situation on its own merits.

Biron has been pretty clear on why he's not a UPL fan and I agree with him. All hockey players have raw tools to succeed, most drafted players don't. I'm not saying you said he's big so he'll be good, I'm saying we need to stop using size as a justification for why a goalie might succeed with patients. The Sabres could have drafted Dustin Wolf in the 7th and he's better than UPL. He's smaller though but he has other tools that make him better.

What other tool besides being 6'4" is UPL bringing to the table? Glove hand is slow. He's not great on his edges but he's average. His rebound control is bad. His puck tracking is meh. Recovery is slow. I'm honestly asking, what does UPL bring in his tool box outside of size?

[MISabresFan]

I am looking forward to the final "changing of the guard."  It needs to happen.  Too many years of suffering - lack of playoff hope.  I wouldn't trade anyone before camp or the start of the season.  Let camp and the beginning of the season decide who should be on the roster, then deal with a plan for trading and collecting more draft picks.  

[dudacek]

34 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

UPL has been one of the very worst goalies in whatever league he's played in for about 5 straight seasons now

 

Thanks for pointing that out @tom webster, it is a great fact for highlighting the lunacy of our goaltending situation 

UPL has been very mediocre and inconsistent, but “very worst” is hyperbole.

In 21/22 he put up a .917 sv% in the NHL. 

Over the past 2 years he’s 21/17/6 in the AHL and 19/16/6 in the NHL.

Last year in the AHL his sv% barely cracked the top 50, but it wasn’t far behind well-rated peers like Akira Schmid and Piotr Kotchekov. And there were 25 guys who played at least 15 games and had worse, in some cases significantly worse.

Im not arguing your main point, his numbers aren’t promising.

I just don’t want the bold to become gospel around here, because it’s not true.

 

[FrenchConnection44]

42 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

UPL has been one of the very worst goalies in whatever league he's played in for about 5 straight seasons now

 

Thanks for pointing that out @tom webster, it is a great fact for highlighting the lunacy of our goaltending situation 

He’s been very inconsistent for sure with a lot of bad games. It seems when he goes south a bit he loses confidence and gets really bad. But he’s not been one of the worst goalies in whatever league the last five seasons. Had a poor 10 games at Rochester in 19-20, but was very good in the ECHL that same year (better than Houser whom we also have in Rochester). Had a .912 save % and 2.24 gaa. 21-22 again not great in Rochester but showed some improvement (.900 save %). He did have a good 9 game stint in Buffalo that year with a .917 save %, 2.74 gaa. It’s not the worst goalie in whatever league he’s been in. He was bad last year but did have some strong games (vs Vegas, Col, early then Flyers, Rangers & Islanders). It may mean nothing but it shows he has flashed some raw potential to play well.  

I’m not trying to defend the guy as some future star, by any means, nor defending his play overall at all; but he has improved here and there and he still has upside potential, imho. Especially given how fickle the goalie position can be and how some don’t come into their own until their mid 20s. Odds are not great, but it’s clear the Sabres have entirely not written him off as some here have. This fall will likely be crucial for his ability to make it. I suspect he knows that. We shall see if he steps up. 

 

[FrenchConnection44]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm not, in fact I think it's a fallacy to blindly trust someone's judgements because they were right on something else.  It's always better to use the information you have to judge the new situation on its own merits.

Biron has been pretty clear on why he's not a UPL fan and I agree with him. All hockey players have raw tools to succeed, most drafted players don't. I'm not saying you said he's big so he'll be good, I'm saying we need to stop using size as a justification for why a goalie might succeed with patients. The Sabres could have drafted Dustin Wolf in the 7th and he's better than UPL. He's smaller though but he has other tools that make him better.

What other tool besides being 6'4" is UPL bringing to the table? Glove hand is slow. He's not great on his edges but he's average. His rebound control is bad. His puck tracking is meh. Recovery is slow. I'm honestly asking, what does UPL bring in his tool box outside of size?

Those are not all unfair critiques. But some of those can improve with work. And he has flashed better than that in some games. I’m simply saying that there have been games and stretches where he performed well and looked the part of an NHL goalie to be potentially serviceable if he improves and becomes consistent. Perhaps not. He may falter and this is likely his last shot with Buffalo before becoming a journeyman. You are free to disagree. It’s a free country and a message board. But I am just not ready to write him off entirely. Not to be a star but a serviceable player.

And, more generally, there are no message board “rules” about what a person can see in, or say about, a player as to what they see in him as potential. It’s a message board. Not a witness stand, lol. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Those are not all unfair critiques. But some of those can improve with work. And he has flashed better than that in some games. I’m simply saying that there have been games and stretches where he performed well and looked the part of an NHL goalie to be potentially serviceable if he improves and becomes consistent. Perhaps not. He may falter and this is likely his last shot with Buffalo before becoming a journeyman. You are free to disagree. It’s a free country and a message board. But I am just not ready to write him off entirely. Not to be a star but a serviceable player.

And, more generally, there are no message board “rules” about what a person can see in, or say about, a player as to what they see in him as potential. It’s a message board. Not a witness stand, lol. 

The last part is obnoxious. We're all aware there is no real message rule on what someone can say on a player. This isn't a court, it's the internet. 

To the rest, I actually agree that seems fair. I don't think he'll pan out but I understand why some do. However I'll double down on listing size as an attribute rings a little hollow when it comes to upl.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

UPL has been very mediocre and inconsistent, but “very worst” is hyperbole.

In 21/22 he put up a .917 sv% in the NHL. 

Over the past 2 years he’s 21/17/6 in the AHL and 19/16/6 in the NHL.

Last year in the AHL his sv% barely cracked the top 50, but it wasn’t far behind well-rated peers like Akira Schmid and Piotr Kotchekov. And there were 25 guys who played at least 15 games and had worse, in some cases significantly worse.

Im not arguing your main point, his numbers aren’t promising.

I just don’t want the bold to become gospel around here, because it’s not true.

 

In 21/22 he played what, 6 games? Off the top of my head. His league that year was the AHL and he threw up an .880 or something. These numbers are made up because I can't look them up right now 

Barely cracking the top 50 is exactly what I'm talking about lol, I don't care what akira Schmid later did behind an elite nhl team the next year. upl's track record is now a bunch of consecutive years of bottom-of-the-barrel goaltending for whatever league he played in (not had a cup of coffee in for a couple weeks)

[dudacek]

37 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

In 21/22 he played what, 6 games? Off the top of my head. His league that year was the AHL and he threw up an .880 or something. These numbers are made up because I can't look them up right now 

Barely cracking the top 50 is exactly what I'm talking about lol, I don't care what akira Schmid later did behind an elite nhl team the next year. upl's track record is now a bunch of consecutive years of bottom-of-the-barrel goaltending for whatever league he played in (not had a cup of coffee in for a couple weeks)

 

He played 9 NHL games in 21/22 and his AHL sv% was .900 (in 33 games). It's not hard to find many goalies who were worse.

If you're going to dismiss his .917 in 9 NHL games in 21/22, not sure why you're making a big deal about his barely cracking the top 50 .898 in his 9 AHL games in 22/23

Clearly a guy who went 40/33/12 overall the past 2 years is  "one of the very worst goalies in whatever league he's played in for about 5 straight seasons now".

I mean if you want to really get specific, 5 years ago, he was literally voted the best goalie in his league.

No point discussing this further. Your statement was wrong, but if you want to continue to double down on it be my guest

Edited July 21, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Granato can rotate Savoie in and out of the lineup based on the opponent.

If the forward group remains healthy and Savoie struggles, I'd sit him long enough to assign him to Rochester on a conditioning assignment. He can then head to the IIHF World Junior Championship with Canada and reunite with Zach Benson in the WHL until joining the Amerks at the end of his season. Kulich or Rousek can be assigned to Buffalo once Savoie departs. 

I sincerely doubt at this point they take the Shane Wright approach with Savoie.  I don’t think he is ready to take a regular shift on a playoff caliber team and the Sabres are tight on roster spots to fool around. We all know he should be in the AHL, but he can’t. Let him and Benson team up to dominate the WHL, then play for Canada at the U20s and see how things go.  Give Savoie and Benson clear instructions what the Sabres want them to work on such as strength and 2 way play.  

[tom webster]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

UPL has been very mediocre and inconsistent, but “very worst” is hyperbole.

In 21/22 he put up a .917 sv% in the NHL. 

Over the past 2 years he’s 21/17/6 in the AHL and 19/16/6 in the NHL.

Last year in the AHL his sv% barely cracked the top 50, but it wasn’t far behind well-rated peers like Akira Schmid and Piotr Kotchekov. And there were 25 guys who played at least 15 games and had worse, in some cases significantly worse.

Im not arguing your main point, his numbers aren’t promising.

I just don’t want the bold to become gospel around here, because it’s not true.

 

I’m sorry, the people I trust and the numbers they use to evaluate goaltenders say different.

Also, this is a league were five goals can be the difference between playoffs and lottery pick. Any statistical difference can be significant.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

He played 9 NHL games in 21/22 and his AHL sv% was .900 (in 33 games). It's not hard to find many goalies who were worse.

If you're going to dismiss his .917 in 9 NHL games in 21/22, not sure why you're making a big deal about his barely cracking the top 50 .898 in his 9 AHL games in 22/23

Clearly a guy who went 40/33/12 overall the past 2 years is  "one of the very worst goalies in whatever league he's played in for about 5 straight seasons now".

I mean if you want to really get specific, 5 years ago, he was literally voted the best goalie in his league.

No point discussing this further. Your statement was wrong, but if you want to continue to double down on it be my guest

 

51 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’m sorry, the people I trust and the numbers they use to evaluate goaltenders say different.

Also, this is a league were five goals can be the difference between playoffs and lottery pick. Any statistical difference can be significant.

A while back I went and compared UPL AHL numbers to the AHL numbers of goalies currently in the NHL.  If memory serves I could not find a single starting goalie in the NHL with numbers worse than UPLs and only one or two backups with arguably similar numbers.   

Just compare Comrie to UPL.  Comrie's AHL save % in seasons where he played 10+ games were .907, .906, .916, .917 and .918.  UPL's .874, .888, .900 (also .898 in 9 games last year).  Honestly Tokarski maybe the best of our non-Levi goalies.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I’m sorry, the people I trust and the numbers they use to evaluate goaltenders say different.

Also, this is a league were five goals can be the difference between playoffs and lottery pick. Any statistical difference can be significant.

Pretty hard to debate private numbers or any conclusions being drawn from them. (Not doubting your sources exist). Conventional stats disagree.

And I’m not debating whether or not UPL needs to be upgraded. In my opinion, he should be.

 

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I’m sorry, the people I trust and the numbers they use to evaluate goaltenders say different.

Also, this is a league were five goals can be the difference between playoffs and lottery pick. Any statistical difference can be significant.

Would you roll the dice on a Comrie/Levi duo more than a UPL/Levi duo? I think I would. Though not ideal.