2023-2024 Sabres lineup

[Night Train]

The Sabres themselves don't even know the lineup yet. Fun to guess but let's let camp play out before dealing in absolutes. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/4700478/2023/07/19/sabres-trade-candidates-victor-olofsson/
 

The Atheltic’s list of Sabres who could be traded before the season begins.  Not hard to figure out who could be sent packing.

Forwards - VO

Goalies - UPL or Comrie, with UPL likely having the most value

Defense - Joki, Bush, Stillman and Bryson, with Joki having the most trade value and Bryson likely having little or none.

[Taro T]

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/4700478/2023/07/19/sabres-trade-candidates-victor-olofsson/
 

The Atheltic’s list of Sabres who could be traded before the season begins.  Not hard to figure out who could be sent packing.

Forwards - VO

Goalies - UPL or Comrie, with UPL likely having the most value

Defense - Joki, Bush, Stillman and Bryson, with Joki having the most trade value and Bryson likely having little or none.

Mildly surprised they didn't have Mittelstadt &/or Krebs on the list as potential trade candidates.  (Personally wouldn't have either listed as trade bait, but with the angst both of them brought to this place at times last year (and even before that) would've thought the Athletic's writers would have felt some of that angst as well.)

And would be surprised if either Stillman or Bryson were traded.  Just don't see a value in either on the trade market and if they're going they're likely part of a much larger trade package.

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Mildly surprised they didn't have Mittelstadt &/or Krebs on the list as potential trade candidates.  (Personally wouldn't have either listed as trade bait, but with the angst both of them brought to this place at times last year (and even before that) would've thought the Athletic's writers would have felt some of that angst as well.)

And would be surprised if either Stillman or Bryson were traded.  Just don't see a value in either on the trade market and if they're going they're likely part of a much larger trade package.

Regardless of the “I want it now” nature of some segments of fandom, I think Mitts and Krebs are firmly “wants to be here” and “he’s a Sabre” guys in the GM’s books.

They’re both guys you’d have to work hard to pry out of Kevyn’s hands.

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Regardless of the “I want it now” nature of some segments of fandom, I think Mitts and Krebs are firmly “wants to be here” and “he’s a Sabre” guys in the GM’s books.

They’re both guys you’d have to work hard to pry out of Kevyn’s hands.

True.  But expected a writer to be further aligned with the fans' view of the situation than the GM's.  (We want the writer to be coming up with what likely might really happen, but when the gnashing of teeth has been so loud for so long; kind of expected to see a bone tossed out.  And again, said that personally don't see either on the trade block nor would they be on the block (though obviously would ALWAYS listen to offers) were this kid GM for a day.

[Thorner]

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Model is operating pretty intuitively human here, honestly. It’s simply looking at at the fact our starting GT has all of 7 games at the NHL level and saying “hmm”. It’s not pointing out any potential downfalls and risks of essentially running back the same roster that we haven’t already mentioned 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

So a team that improved their defense, has a top 3 offense will regress by 7 points.

[Gatorman0519]

8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

If this is their team and it misses the playoffs this coming year, there is zero reason to believe they are only ONE year away then

Well I’d say they have quite an amount of talent developing in the system. I’m a bit surprised we didn’t sign a veteran goalie to go with Levi. 

[Gatorman0519]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So a team that improved their defense, has a top 3 offense will regress by 7 points.

I would not be at all shocked. We are already down Quinn, and have a scary goaltending situation. The bottom of the roster is … meh. 

[Crusader1969]

I keep coming back to the Sabres aquiring Pesce

Could Oloffson and Jokiharju be enough? 

 

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

I would not be at all shocked. We are already down Quinn, and have a scary goaltending situation. The bottom of the roster is … meh. 

Seriously?  Quinn had 14 of the 293 goals the team scored last season.  Losing Quinn for half the season is disappointing but it’s not exactly a death blow to the offense.  

The goaltending is potentially scary, except we know the worst case for Comrie and UPL and the Sabres proved last year they can still win with those two in net and Levi is an upgrade on both.  

Also their job should be easier next season as the upgraded defense helps limit the number of high danger chances against helping all 3 goalies.  I believe that additions of Johnson and Clifton might be good for a reduction of at least 20 goals against. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Another problem with these types of models is that always under estimate young teams.  The guy mentioned that the “Sabres don’t have a replacement level goalie.”  It’s clear that their model doesn’t have a good way to project Levi’s potential who will almost certainly be the Sabres’ starter in the fall.  

Last year these same models underestimated the improvement in TNT, Mitts and Cozens and ignored the positives of adding JJP and Quinn.  Now this year’s version likely underestimates Greenway, Krebs, and the further development of JJP. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

 

That... that doesn't make any sense. Why would Buffalo get the much worse? 

[Doohicksie]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That... that doesn't make any sense. Why would Buffalo get the much worse? 

He had Buffalo at 77 points last season.  I wouldn't pay attention.

[Thorner]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That... that doesn't make any sense. Why would Buffalo get the much worse? 

Our very obviously questionable goaltending and the input data being over the course of a few seasons is my guess 

Mostly the model does a good job of representing our question marks. Never entered my mind it represented any likely ceiling, it’s simply a matter of the team still being in “prove it” mode where the stats and precedent is concerned. As mentioned I think it inputs a running total from a few years so one good year of stats isn’t going to swing it in totality. 

And it can’t expect improvement in net, how could it? It has nothing established to bet on. We can totally have faith in Levi and still understand why the model doesn’t favour him. He’s played 7 games, he’s a question mark to any reasonable data set

Edited July 19, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

 

@Ducky

[Ducky]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

@Ducky

Looks 2 or 3 places too high to me. Hard to tell at this time of year though.

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

I keep coming back to the Sabres aquiring Pesce

Could Oloffson and Jokiharju be enough? 

 

 

 

I doubt that’s enough to get Pesce to waive his NTC to Buffalo 

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

Well I’d say they have quite an amount of talent developing in the system. I’m a bit surprised we didn’t sign a veteran goalie to go with Levi. 

This has been true or said to be true for all of the 12 years of not making the playoffs. If they miss this year they are off track, something went wrong, and a lot of bets are off for what the circumstance will be the following year.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

That... that doesn't make any sense. Why would Buffalo get the much worse? 

 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So a team that improved their defense, has a top 3 offense will regress by 7 points.

Most projections based on statistical models will not like the Sabres this year. Not because they're young or unproven, either. Nothing the Sabres did move any of the metrics that matter for the models, and the goalie situation is a red flag for them (as it should be for sane humans too)

The models see about 6 outlier seasons driving our great offense and say, what are the odds that all happens again,  oh and BTW your 2RW will be MIA for a while 

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This has been true or said to be true for all of the 12 years of not making the playoffs. If they miss this year they are off track, something went wrong, and a lot of bets are off for what the circumstance will be the following year.

For the record, if the Sabres miss the playoffs this year with the majority of important players being reasonably healthy, not one person should have any interest in giving KA another summer to play with the roster

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So a team that improved their defense, has a top 3 offense will regress by 7 points.

I'll play Devils advocate here, supporting the view of whoever put up that post....

Offense is pretty much the same players as last year.  Defense might be improved on the 3rd pair with limited minutes.  The key for the point drop is  goaltending. You are losing a .908 save percentage in Anderson, replacing that with Levi (unknown) and an .886 and .892 with Comrie.  Again, I don't agee with his point total/regression, just putting out there how he can easily get to that opinion.

What he is missing is:  This is a very young team that has the 'same' players that should be better simply because they are one year older.  Levi MAY be an improvement.  Comrie may be better if he was likely playing injured last year. UPL should be better...if he is worse he likely won't be playing.

[thewookie1]

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

 

The problem with the Athletic’s model is it puts way too much emphasis on UFA signings and has little to no adjustment for teams that hold steady and merely mature from within. A simplistic view on this would be that Olofsson being traded for a pick and replaced with any non-NHL vet would be considered a huge negative.
 

Detroit makes a large trade and dumps money on a couple guys and the chart explodes for them. 
 

Sabres don’t make any large plays and they get left in the dust. We saw much of the same last offseason. 

Their model is far too dependent on past data and practically ignores any other roster factors.

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

Most projections based on statistical models will not like the Sabres this year. Not because they're young or unproven, either. Nothing the Sabres did move any of the metrics that matter for the models, and the goalie situation is a red flag for them (as it should be for sane humans too)

The models see about 6 outlier seasons driving our great offense and say, what are the odds that all happens again,  oh and BTW your 2RW will be MIA for a while 

Out of those 6 

Skinner and Tuch might lessen 

But I don’t see Thompson, Cozens or Peterka vanishing into an ether. Quinn was spotty through the year and while his loss hurts, a solid full year from Mitts will overcome that and more.

Goaltending is concerning but you are speaking out both sides of your mouth here. Levi isn’t highly regarded due to inexperience. UPL and Comrie are below average but again how can any model state that UPL or Comrie have played plenty of bad games to be considered yet Levi can’t play enough good games to be considered good. What exactly is that number? 20 games? 30 games? 40? So to say the model isn’t penalizing us for young players whom are inexperienced is incorrect.