Starting goaltending: what do we really think about the situation in the crease?

[French Collection]

59 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is it Devon Levi who makes you nervous, or the idea of a rookie being handed that role?

For me, it’s the latter. Nothing Ive seen or read about Devon himself makes me nervous whatsoever.

Its just the concept.

The role based on his body of work.

[Brawndo]

11 hours ago, Weave said:

“In the race” does not assume we are in the top 8 teams, just within reasonable striking distance.  We were in the race last season and missed.

scenario 1.  Levi is fine. UPL and Comrie are not.  Adding an upgrade to UPL/Comrie takes some of the load off Levi better assuring that we don’t wear him out before we get in.  And gives us a measure of insurance if Levi falters.

scenario 2. Levi is not ready for prime time or is inconsistent and we have an exact repeat of last seasons overall goalie situation.  Adding an upgrade to UPL/Comrie puts us in a better situation to avoid missing the playoffs by 1 win.

My gut is telling me that a move at the deadline for a goalie upgrade at rental prices is more likely than getting a goalie in this offseason.

The problem with trading for a goalie at the TDL is they have minimal time to adjust to the type of play of the new team. 
 

Ryan Miller mentioned he had problems going from the Sabres to St Louis. 
 

Now if the Sabres are playing a tighter defensive structure next year, the transition might be easier 

[Brawndo]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

I’ve come to realize there is one factor we’ve been overlooking in the goalie conversation:

The value of the acquired goalie at the end of next year or the year after.

Hart is in the final season of his contract next year, then he becomes an RFA with arbitration rights.

If we traded Rosen and next year’s first for Hart to split the crease a number of things could happen:

• Hart outplays Levi and we have to decide whether to re-sign Hart as our #1 or trade him, likely for a similar or better return for what we paid.
• Levi outplays Hart and we have to decide whether to re-sign Hart as our #2 or trade him, likely for a similar or worse return for what we paid.
• Levi and Hart split the duties as most hope and we flip Hart for a similar value than what we paid.

Yes, a 4th option is Hart sucks and we have no chance to recoup value. But that is the same risk with any goalie we acquire.   It is less likely with Hart than many others. And if it happens, we can qualify Hart and try to rehabilitate his value.

Basically, the plan would provide a good safety net for Levi while mitigating loss of asset value in a way you couldn’t with pending UFA Hellebuyck.

You could apply a similar thought process to the other options and you might find one you like better.

Any option is a good one, four to a lesser extent 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Is it Devon Levi who makes you nervous, or the idea of a rookie being handed that role?

For me, it’s the latter. Nothing Ive seen or read about Devon himself makes me nervous whatsoever.

Its just the concept.

54 minutes ago, French Collection said:

The role based on his body of work.

I agree that Devon is a reassuring, confidence-inspiring, sort, and I can see him conquering the Matrix.  But I am a bit unsettled at the prospect of assuming that any human with a total of 7 NHL games is going to carry the mail at a high level for 55ish games plus playoffs.  The risk of a goaltending-caused playoff miss debacle is higher with this plan than it would've been with many others.

[JohninMinn.]

I'm riding with Levi the rookie phenom. He loves playing the game and has the cockiness that position needs. Leth's Play! Screw the nervous Nellie's and the Josh Rosen,Sam Darnold,Baker Mayfield drafters. You know who you are.

[Thorner]

Funnily enough, even the rather hopeful, risky position that Levi can buck trend and be a legit starter right out the gate is something I see almost everyone to a man granting. There’s a ton of faith at work here, and willful belief. The bridge too far sticking point appears to be doubling down on that risk to an even further, probably needless degree by failing to roster a competent back up. 

There’s sort of a conflation: full belief in Levi doesn’t really have anything to do with the fact you need 2 good goalies: the discussion has always been about 2 roster spots, not one. It’s much closer to a 1C/2C dynamic than it is a 1C, negligible 13th man/mostly bench position dynamic, that some seem to treat it as.

The fact a capable backup provides insurance to the idea Levi needs to be a statistical anomaly is simply, merely what makes it a no brainer addition 

We can bet on Levi. We should. But we don’t need to be so confident so as to laugh in the face of potential imminent danger by needlessly disregarding our backup parachute to prove a point, while jumping out of the plane.

You still equip the second chute if you are serious 

Edited July 16, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Funnily enough, even the rather hopeful, risky position that Levi can buck trend and be a legit starter right out the gate is something I see almost everyone to a man granting. There’s a ton of faith at work here, and willful belief. The bridge too far sticking point appears to be doubling down on that risk to an even further, probably needless degree by failing to roster a competent back up. 

There’s sort of a conflation: full belief in Levi doesn’t really have anything to do with the fact you need 2 good goalies: the discussion has always been about 2 roster spots, not one. It’s much closer to a 1C/2C dynamic than it is a 1C, negligible 13th man/mostly bench position dynamic, that some seem to treat it as.

The fact a capable backup provides insurance to the idea Levi needs to be a statistical anomaly is simply, merely what makes it a no brainer addition 

We can bet on Levi. We should. But we don’t need to be so confident so as to laugh in the face of potential imminent danger by needlessly disregarding our backup parachute to prove a point. 

That's the thing.  It ISN'T a knock on Levi to say the Sabres should have a proven vet to pair with him.  Even if he plays 50 games at a high level, there are still 32 games that it would be nice to have better than last year's UPL and Comrie to be the backstop in.

And if Levi does succumb to the "21 year old goalies aren't ready for the NHL on a night in night out basis" adage; well then it's not just nice but a necessity to get better play out of the "backup" position.  MIGHT Comrie &/or UPL be better this year than last and even so much better to be good enough?  Yes.  But it is far from a given.  (Pretty sure it's a given, should he stay healthy, that Comrie WILL be better than last year.  But will it be good enough to withstand the rigors of being forced to be the #1 for a spell?  Again, it's possible, but far from a given.)

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

That's the thing.  It ISN'T a knock on Levi to say the Sabres should have a proven vet to pair with him.  Even if he plays 50 games at a high level, there are still 32 games that it would be nice to have better than last year's UPL and Comrie to be the backstop in.

And if Levi does succumb to the "21 year old goalies aren't ready for the NHL on a night in night out basis" adage; well then it's not just nice but a necessity to get better play out of the "backup" position.  MIGHT Comrie &/or UPL be better this year than last and even so much better to be good enough?  Yes.  But it is far from a given.  (Pretty sure it's a given, should he stay healthy, that Comrie WILL be better than last year.  But will it be good enough to withstand the rigors of being forced to be the #1 for a spell?  Again, it's possible, but far from a given.)

Not even nice: strictly crucial. In today’s NHL you need 2 guys. Keep going back to it: the Vezina winning tender on the best team had a compliment G who got like 40% of the starts 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Not even nice: strictly crucial. In today’s NHL you need 2 guys. Keep going back to it: the Vezina winning tender on the best team had a compliment G who got like 40% of the starts 

Well, depends strictly on how we're defining nice and crucial.  

The Bruins would have been comfortably in a playoff spot had they had Comrie or UPL as the backup to Ullmark.  No ####in' way they set RS records for W's and P's with either of those 2 backing him up.  But they didn't NEED to set RS records if the goal is a SC championship.  And even with that much better backup who got regular usage during the RS, the Bruins went back to conventional wisdom that in the playoffs you run your #1 all the way until after Ullmark had played way more in a row than he'd done since November and it was too late for the now out of a rhythm Swayman to bail them out.  So, they definitely would've run Ullmark to the end in the playoffs having one of those other 2 backing Linus up.  Heck, Linus might even have been more used to getting a bunch of games in a row if he had a lesser backup and would've been more prepared to run the table so to speak in that case.

Really do expect that IF Levi plays the way we're all realistically hoping he can play (meaning playing at the level he's shown so far, not turning into the current Saros or Shesterkin at the mere age of 21) AND the D is as improved as is likely from both Dahlin and Power being 1 year closer each to their peaks, Lyubushkin being a year into the system &/or Jokiharju being consistently a 3rd pairing guy and not dragging down Power, and the addition of Clifton AND they play actual defense in their own end that the team will make the playoffs even stuck with Comrie &/or UPL as the backup provided they show a bit of improvement.  And, none of those IF's are remotely unattainable on paper.  (One or all could be unattainable in practice, doubt it but possible, but until they play the games, paper is all we have to go on .)

So, in that regard, it would be NICE to have better, but not necessarily CRUCIAL because once they get to the playoffs, they AREN'T playing the backup.

[Thorner]

32 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Well, depends strictly on how we're defining nice and crucial.  

The Bruins would have been comfortably in a playoff spot had they had Comrie or UPL as the backup to Ullmark.  No ####in' way they set RS records for W's and P's with either of those 2 backing him up.  But they didn't NEED to set RS records if the goal is a SC championship.  And even with that much better backup who got regular usage during the RS, the Bruins went back to conventional wisdom that in the playoffs you run your #1 all the way until after Ullmark had played way more in a row than he'd done since November and it was too late for the now out of a rhythm Swayman to bail them out.  So, they definitely would've run Ullmark to the end in the playoffs having one of those other 2 backing Linus up.  Heck, Linus might even have been more used to getting a bunch of games in a row if he had a lesser backup and would've been more prepared to run the table so to speak in that case.

Really do expect that IF Levi plays the way we're all realistically hoping he can play (meaning playing at the level he's shown so far, not turning into the current Saros or Shesterkin at the mere age of 21) AND the D is as improved as is likely from both Dahlin and Power being 1 year closer each to their peaks, Lyubushkin being a year into the system &/or Jokiharju being consistently a 3rd pairing guy and not dragging down Power, and the addition of Clifton AND they play actual defense in their own end that the team will make the playoffs even stuck with Comrie &/or UPL as the backup provided they show a bit of improvement.  And, none of those IF's are remotely unattainable on paper.  (One or all could be unattainable in practice, doubt it but possible, but until they play the games, paper is all we have to go on .)

So, in that regard, it would be NICE to have better, but not necessarily CRUCIAL because once they get to the playoffs, they AREN'T playing the backup.

Ya, I guess if you are pacing for a regular season record, you can afford to roster someone bad as a backup. My point was that even then: they didn’t. And the Sabres aren’t even close to having that breathing room. 

I’d stick with my crucial vs nice designation where the Sabres are concerned. In fact, where the vast majority of teams are concerned 

Edited July 16, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

The point was that even through the prism of a team in a vastly more assured, comfortable spot than we are, the backup goalie was an important part of that team. The argument wasn’t it say they couldn’t have made the playoffs without Swayman: the idea was to literally pick the most extreme example possible to show that EVEN they manned the backup position properly. Even for Boston the backup goalie was a key to a sizeable portion of their success.

The Sabres *certainly* should be a team that mans the position properly, for the myriad of reasons already mentioned 

The fact Levi isn’t Ullmark isn’t even my central point. That’s where the argument’s strength lies: in the fact that Levi being very unlikely to be Ullmark right out of the gate *isnt even the biggest reason* we need to roster a competent goalie 2. Adding in that uncertainty is what makes addressing a roster spot that already needed attention, regardless, a no brainer 

Edited July 16, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

26 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya, I guess if you are pacing for a regular season record, you can afford to roster someone bad as a backup. My point was that even then: they didn’t. And the Sabres aren’t even close to having that breathing room. 

I’d stick with my crucial vs nice designation where the Sabres are concerned. In fact, where the vast majority of teams are concerned 

We are both in agreement that it would be a good thing for Adams to address the goaltending.  And we are both in agreement that having a "proven" vet to pair with Levi adds way more leeway to the upcoming season than running with status quo.  We also are in agreement that if status quo remains and the season goes kerplewy that Adams should be held accountable for that.  (Not necessarily saying he should be canned should that happen, but he ends up on a very short leash moving forward in that case at a minimum.)

And it comes back to semantics whether it's nice or crucial to upgrade the 2nd G position.  IMHO it isn't crucial as they CAN make the playoffs (and probably should) even with the goaltending they have now; but it sure as #### would be nice to have that expected to be better goalie (and should it be Saros or Hellebuyck brought in, that KNOWN to be better goalie) so that a run of D injuries like they had last year WON'T lead to an 8 game pointless streak putting the entire season into jeopardy.

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, Taro T said:

We are both in agreement that it would be a good thing for Adams to address the goaltending.  And we are both in agreement that having a "proven" vet to pair with Levi adds way more leeway to the upcoming season than running with status quo.  We also are in agreement that if status quo remains and the season goes kerplewy that Adams should be held accountable for that.  (Not necessarily saying he should be canned should that happen, but he ends up on a very short leash moving forward in that case at a minimum.)

And it comes back to semantics whether it's nice or crucial to upgrade the 2nd G position.  IMHO it isn't crucial as they CAN make the playoffs (and probably should) even with the goaltending they have now; but it sure as #### would be nice to have that expected to be better goalie (and should it be Saros or Hellebuyck brought in, that KNOWN to be better goalie) so that a run of D injuries like they had last year WON'T lead to an 8 game pointless streak putting the entire season into jeopardy.

Aight. Scratch my “crucial” from the record and sub in “usually important”

[That Aud Smell]

17 hours ago, Taro T said:

We also are in agreement that if status quo remains and the season goes kerplewy that Adams should be held accountable for that.  (Not necessarily saying he should be canned should that happen, but he ends up on a very short leash moving forward in that case at a minimum.)

[bob_sauve28]

 

Oh, ok 

 

 

[mjd1001]

16 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

Oh, ok 

 

 

I'm kinda amazed than anyone is writing anything. Barring a trade of course, I would think that the entire goaltending situation can change in camp/preseason and nothing is set in stone. Performance in Camp, any new injuries, recovery from previous injuries, how hard they all worked in the offseason.......I would think they are so close in talent/past performance than the things I just mentioned above would determine the order of the goalie depth chart....I'm surprised if anyone in the organization would have it pre-determined. 

[French Collection]

32 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm kinda amazed than anyone is writing anything. Barring a trade of course, I would think that the entire goaltending situation can change in camp/preseason and nothing is set in stone. Performance in Camp, any new injuries, recovery from previous injuries, how hard they all worked in the offseason.......I would think they are so close in talent/past performance than the things I just mentioned above would determine the order of the goalie depth chart....I'm surprised if anyone in the organization would have it pre-determined. 

I agree that nothing is set in stone.

While Levi is the only waiver eligible of the three, I think he is the least likely to be sent down.

It will be an interesting battle to watch. I think Comrie’s salary makes him easier to send down on waivers, most teams are tight to the cap and have one or two guys at his level already.

[RochesterExpat]

I feel like I should make a parlay bet on Buffalo making the playoffs and Levi winning the Calder since I think one is dependent on the other.

[dudacek]

When, if given the choice between the developing player and the mediocre veteran, have Adams and Granato not gone with the developing player?

Until we see them behave differently, it is hard for me not to perceive UPL versus Comrie as no different than Peterka versus Hinostroza.

[Buffalonill]

40 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

I feel like I should make a parlay bet on Buffalo making the playoffs and Levi winning the Calder since I think one is dependent on the other.

Even if Levi gets 15 SO's the nhl will make sure connor bedard wins it to Market the new superstar in America 

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm kinda amazed than anyone is writing anything. Barring a trade of course, I would think that the entire goaltending situation can change in camp/preseason and nothing is set in stone. Performance in Camp, any new injuries, recovery from previous injuries, how hard they all worked in the offseason.......I would think they are so close in talent/past performance than the things I just mentioned above would determine the order of the goalie depth chart....I'm surprised if anyone in the organization would have it pre-determined. 

The “IT IS GOING to be Levi and UPL!!!!!!!!” crowd has been oddly obsessed with continually hammering home the idea that things ASSUREDLY won’t shake out any other way. It’s a little funny.

It’s like, SUPER SUPER important to them that people know it won’t be different 

No one can be disappointed in it unfolding any other way, because it’s predetermined, ok? Don’t argue with THE PLAN

[dudacek]

This makes me wonder: how many jobs are ever outright won in training camp?

What I’m saying is teams have a ghost roster in their heads where 20-ish guys are on the team, 5ish guys are in the mix for the last 3 spots, and 20ish guys are expected to be sent down.

Sure, the bubble guys are fighting for those last 3 spots, but how often does a guy outside that bubble change minds with his training camp?

Is there any chance Levi isn’t on the roster come October?

Does Brett Murray really have a shot to be the 13th forward?

Can Kale Clague or Ryan Johnson, or Jacob Bryson make the team over Eric Johnson?

How bad would Peyton Krebs have to perform not to be in Buffalo?

Don’t get me wrong, there are battles for spots most years, but not many guys are actually participating in those battles.

[nfreeman]

4 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

Oh, ok 

 

 

And there's ray of sunshine Mike Harrington again.

Does he not realize that every one of these petty insults reduces his chances of gainful employment a bit more if and when TBN includes him in an inevitable wave of layoffs?

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

And there's ray of sunshine Mike Harrington again.

Does he not realize that every one of these petty insults reduces his chances of gainful employment a bit more if and when TBN includes him in an inevitable wave of layoffs?

I believe he was agreeing with the tweet.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

The “IT IS GOING to be Levi and UPL!!!!!!!!” crowd has been oddly obsessed with continually hammering home the idea that things ASSUREDLY won’t shake out any other way. It’s a little funny.

It’s like, SUPER SUPER important to them that people know it won’t be different 

No one can be disappointed in it unfolding any other way, because it’s predetermined, ok? Don’t argue with THE PLAN

I thought arguing with the plan was the whole point of being here?