2023 Free Agent Frenzy (Non-Sabres)

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And, as you are well aware, correlation is NOT ncessarily causation.

I agree with you that correlation is not necessarily causation. But how UPL has played doesn't necessarily reflect how he will play. Will he get better? I think so but can't say for sure. What I can say for sure is if our team becomes more committed to playing a more responsible two-way game, that our goalies, all of them, will be better next season. 

@LGR4GMhas on more than a few occasions made the cogent point that in our last 18 games or so this team demonstrated a greater commitment to playing a tighter and more defensive brand of hockey. And it resulted in a good record. For me, the critical issue is more about playing better team defense than it is about the play of our goalies. 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I agree with you that correlation is not necessarily causation. But how UPL has played doesn't necessarily reflect how he will play. Will he get better? I think so but can't say for sure. What I can say for sure is if our team becomes more committed to playing a more responsible two-way game, that our goalies, all of them, will be better next season. 

@LGR4GMhas on more than a few occasions made the cogent point that in our last 18 games or so this team demonstrated a greater commitment to playing a tighter and more defensive brand of hockey. And it resulted in a good record. For me, the critical issue is more about playing better team defense than it is about the play of our goalies. 

The 2 go hand in hand though.  Really believe (well hope more accurately) that the reason none of the AC's got canned this spring/summer is management believes when coaching the PK and also team D the coaches were coaching with the proverbial 1 hand tied behind their backs due to the goaltending that was behind them.

The PK was passive and that doesn't work anymore.  It leaves too much time and space for the PP to find holes in the box/diamond.  If you pressure HARD it takes away time and space and forces bad passes / blocked shots (and weaker shots too, nobody is getting a full on slap shot off if they're under pressure) which results in turnovers and zone clears.  But, if the PP manages to get two quick passes off, they will have a high danger opportunity because your PKers are not out of position.  Your goalie has to bail them out.  If you don't trust your goaltending to beat the odd man opportunity from the house; you CAN'T run that attacking PK.  You will get burned.  You need to go with a passive PK and hope that you can slow the PP down and get them sort of mesmerized looking for a pass through rather than simply letting it rip from up high or go with the Sabres PK kryptonite, working the puck below the goal line and wait for the D to become impatient and come down low leaving room for a F and a D to both be in the slot with at best 1 defender trying to cover both which this year was pretty much an automatic goal.

You can end up with similar issues at 5v5 if you don't trust the goalie to make a save should your pressure come too late or you simply get beat.  You will necessarily not be as aggressive trying to force the turnover that will let you get out of the zone.  Combine that with Granato's willingness to let a F cheat out of the zone when it looks like the D or his linemate will gain possession and your defense doesn't work in front of goaltending you don't trust.

They trust Levi.  Should he be backed up by Comrie or UPL hopefully coming into this season fully healthy and with an additional year of understanding how Bales wants them to play will result in the team trusting whichever one is the backup and they won't go back to the same old habits they kept returning too far too often after the Ryan Miller game.  (They may have shown they could play team D on brief occassions before that, but that was the 1st game that they played well over 30 minutes doing so.)  Personally was frustrated by their inability to do so for more than about 3 games at any stretch even down the stretch.  Expect they will be playing team D better this year, but it still remains to be seen by just how much.  Because they are not going to go full shutdown mode; this is a fun team to watch and a fun team to play for.  Guys will still be allowed to get creative without fear of repercussion but they are going to be expected to understand when it's worth taking the risk and when it isn't.  (And will drop this now before going any further onto a tangent.)

[JohnC]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The 2 go hand in hand though.  Really believe (well hope more accurately) that the reason none of the AC's got canned this spring/summer is management believes when coaching the PK and also team D the coaches were coaching with the proverbial 1 hand tied behind their backs due to the goaltending that was behind them.

The PK was passive and that doesn't work anymore.  It leaves too much time and space for the PP to find holes in the box/diamond.  If you pressure HARD it takes away time and space and forces bad passes / blocked shots (and weaker shots too, nobody is getting a full on slap shot off if they're under pressure) which results in turnovers and zone clears.  But, if the PP manages to get two quick passes off, they will have a high danger opportunity because your PKers are not out of position.  Your goalie has to bail them out.  If you don't trust your goaltending to beat the odd man opportunity from the house; you CAN'T run that attacking PK.  You will get burned.  You need to go with a passive PK and hope that you can slow the PP down and get them sort of mesmerized looking for a pass through rather than simply letting it rip from up high or go with the Sabres PK kryptonite, working the puck below the goal line and wait for the D to become impatient and come down low leaving room for a F and a D to both be in the slot with at best 1 defender trying to cover both which this year was pretty much an automatic goal.

You can end up with similar issues at 5v5 if you don't trust the goalie to make a save should your pressure come too late or you simply get beat.  You will necessarily not be as aggressive trying to force the turnover that will let you get out of the zone.  Combine that with Granato's willingness to let a F cheat out of the zone when it looks like the D or his linemate will gain possession and your defense doesn't work in front of goaltending you don't trust.

They trust Levi.  Should he be backed up by Comrie or UPL hopefully coming into this season fully healthy and with an additional year of understanding how Bales wants them to play will result in the team trusting whichever one is the backup and they won't go back to the same old habits they kept returning too far too often after the Ryan Miller game.  (They may have shown they could play team D on brief occassions before that, but that was the 1st game that they played well over 30 minutes doing so.)  Personally was frustrated by their inability to do so for more than about 3 games at any stretch even down the stretch.  Expect they will be playing team D better this year, but it still remains to be seen by just how much.  Because they are not going to go full shutdown mode; this is a fun team to watch and a fun team to play for.  Guys will still be allowed to get creative without fear of repercussion but they are going to be eowxpected to understand when it's worth taking the risk and when it isn't.  (And will drop this now before going any further onto a tangent.)

I appreciate your response. I'm hoping that the additions of Johnson and Clifton will improve the PK. There's no question that Granto emphasizes the offense over the defense. But there has to be more balance between the offense and defense even while acknowledging that the roster is built more around the offense than the defense. I'm just not as concerned about our backstopping situation as most here are. In my mind this team squandered at least 10 points because of their incapable PKing. Improving that part of the game will put this team in a better position. 

[Taro T]

21 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I appreciate your response. I'm hoping that the additions of Johnson and Clifton will improve the PK. There's no question that Granto emphasizes the offense over the defense. But there has to be more balance between the offense and defense even while acknowledging that the roster is built more around the offense than the defense. I'm just not as concerned about our backstopping situation as most here are. In my mind this team squandered at least 10 points because of their incapable PKing. Improving that part of the game will put this team in a better position. 

Fix the goaltending and you will have fixed the PK.  Bringing in better PKers was a good thing.  But right now, Levi is their best PKer.  And because he is back there the Sabres can implement the Canes PK (at least when he's in the net).  Will they implement it?  Expecting they will, or a variant, and if not, somebody needs to be canned yesterday.  Will they implement it should Comrie or UPL (or Tokarski) be between the pipes?  They haven't in the past.  Remains to be seen if they will if any of them end up between the pipes.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Fix the goaltending and you will have fixed the PK.  Bringing in better PKers was a good thing.  But right now, Levi is their best PKer.  And because he is back there the Sabres can implement the Canes PK (at least when he's in the net).  Will they implement it?  Expecting they will, or a variant, and if not, somebody needs to be canned yesterday.  Will they implement it should Comrie or UPL (or Tokarski) be between the pipes?  They haven't in the past.  Remains to be seen if they will if any of them end up between the pipes.

You know very well what I think is going to happen regarding the goalie staffing. I don't believe that they are going to bring in another goalie. (That's my opinion.)  If KA brings in another goalie, I'll support the addition. If KA doesn't, I'll support his stance. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. 

[Doohicksie]

15 hours ago, Taro T said:

And, as you are well aware, correlation is NOT ncessarily causation.

No but in the end the ultimate stat is wins and losses.  UPL was not holding the Sabres back.

[Taro T]

33 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

No but in the end the ultimate stat is wins and losses.  UPL was not holding the Sabres back.

From February 1 through to Levi signing with the Sabres he certainly wasn't helping the cause.  2-6-2 in those 10 games.  If you want to look at penultimate stats rather than the "ultimate stat" he had 2 games with a sub-0.750 S% and gave up at least 4 goals on 7 occassions.

You SURE he wasn't holding them back?

[Eleven]

27 minutes ago, Taro T said:

From February 1 through to Levi signing with the Sabres he certainly wasn't helping the cause.  2-6-2 in those 10 games.  If you want to look at penultimate stats rather than the "ultimate stat" he had 2 games with a sub-0.750 S% and gave up at least 4 goals on 7 occassions.

You SURE he wasn't holding them back?

I'm sure he WAS holding them back.

[inkman]

22 hours ago, JohnC said:

I agree with you that correlation is not necessarily causation. 

I also agree with science 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

I also agree with science 

A lot of people don't believe in science. And a lot of people reject the reality that is visible with their own eyes. Or another way of saying it is they believe what they want to believe regardless of the facts. 

[Scottysabres]

Just now, JohnC said:

A lot of people don't believe in science. And a lot of people reject the reality that is visible with their own eyes. Or another way of saying it is they believe what they want to believe regardless of the facts. 

Alot of people have just cause to be skeptical on science, given the modern day messengers of such actually caught in factual lies. Science may be science, but the messengers determine its absolutes. Sometimes, reality hits like a concrete wall.

[Crusader1969]

Anyone thinking the Sabres should have taken a flyer on Zadina? 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Scottysabres said:

Alot of people have just cause to be skeptical on science, given the modern day messengers of such actually caught in factual lies. Science may be science, but the messengers determine its absolutes. Sometimes, reality hits like a concrete wall.

Sometimes the evidence is so overwhelming that even with fraudulent messengers most people should be able to discern what is real and fake. Hucksters have always been around. There are enough quality sources to make a reasonable judgment in most cases. The intermingling of politics and science is a toxic mixture.  

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Sometimes the evidence is so overwhelming that even with fraudulent messengers most people should be able to discern what is real and fake. Hucksters have always been around. There are enough quality primary sources to make a reasonable judgment in most cases. The intermingling of politics and science is a toxic mixture.  

ftfy.

[Scottysabres]

8 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Anyone thinking the Sabres should have taken a flyer on Zadina? 

I see nothing of value in bringing him on board to be honest. We have a pipeline to harvest from. Both may be a slightly elevated risk, but the organization showing confidence in their own chosen players that they've help develop would go much farther than bringing in another forward, imho.

[Randall Flagg]

I don't believe in science. And I do it for a living! 

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

I see nothing of value in bringing him on board to be honest. We have a pipeline to harvest from. Both may be a slightly elevated risk, but the organization showing confidence in their own chosen players that they've help develop would go much farther than bringing in another forward, imho.

Zadina's already signed with the Sharks.

[sweetlou]

K'Andre Miller signs 2 years at AAV of $3.872.  

Makes the Samuelsson signing look better.

They now only have 2.3 million to sign LaFreniere.  "Hey Drury you want one of our shiny prospects named Rosen or Östlund and our 24' 1st rd pick for LaF?"

or do you go the other route and ask 

"I'll take Goodrow with $1.5 million retention and NYR 24' 1st rd pick to Buffalo for future considerations?"

 

[Marvin]

16 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

K'Andre Miller signs 2 years at AAV of $3.872.  

Makes the Samuelsson signing look better.

They now only have 2.3 million to sign LaFreniere.  "Hey Drury you want one of our shiny prospects named Rosen or Östlund and our 24' 1st rd pick for LaF?"

or do you go the other route and ask 

"I'll take Goodrow with $1.5 million retention and NYR 24' 1st rd pick to Buffalo for future considerations?"

 

That is a massive overpay for LaFreniere.  He's a 3rd liner and should be valued as such.

[Carmel Corn]

58 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

K'Andre Miller signs 2 years at AAV of $3.872.  

Makes the Samuelsson signing look better.

They now only have 2.3 million to sign LaFreniere.  "Hey Drury you want one of our shiny prospects named Rosen or Östlund and our 24' 1st rd pick for LaF?"

or do you go the other route and ask 

"I'll take Goodrow with $1.5 million retention and NYR 24' 1st rd pick to Buffalo for future considerations?"

 

Pretty sure $2.3 is not going to get the job done....he scored 12, 19 and 16 goals his first 3 seasons.  He may be on the verge of bigger production as well.  They're going to have to do something else to create space.

[Buffalonill]

2 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Pretty sure $2.3 is not going to get the job done....he scored 12, 19 and 16 goals his first 3 seasons.  He may be on the verge of bigger production as well.  They're going to have to do something else to create space.

[Randall Flagg]

The first prospect in our pool I'd swap straight up for Lafreniere is Kisakov

[Buffalonill]

36 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The first prospect in our pool I'd swap straight up for Lafreniere is Kisakov

But why ? Lafreniere just Reminds me so much of Grigorenko so much talent but dumb as rocks and slower then a Glacier.

 

[sabresparaavida]

5 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

But why ? Lafreniere just Reminds me so much of Grigorenko so much talent but dumb as rocks and slower then a Glacier.

 

I have very low confidence that Kisakov will ever get NHL time, at least as a Sabre. I view him as below Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Östlund, Neuchev, Poltapov, and Wahlberg. 
I would happily give up Kisakov for Lafreniere who is still only 21 and put up 16 goals and 39 points last year. With Quinn down, I would be open to a move, but not more than a second+one of Neuchev/Poltapov/Kisakov.

 

[Buffalonill]

Just now, sabresparaavida said:

I have very low confidence that Kisakov will ever get NHL time, at least as a Sabre. I view him as below Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Östlund, Neuchev, Poltapov, and Wahlberg. 
I would happily give up Kisakov for Lafreniere who is still only 21 and put up 16 goals and 39 points last year. With Quinn down, I would be open to a move, but not more than a second+one of Neuchev/Poltapov/Kisakov.

 

I just don't like how slow Lafreniere is his style of game might have been great years back but it's run and gun now.