Prospect pool, summer 2023

[LGR4GM]

Actual stars, hmm tough to answer but Levi, Power, Benson, Kulich, Savoie would be the likely candidates with very dark horse Novikov.

[GASabresIUFAN]

How do we define “star”? Is it someone in the running for a major award like TNT and Dahlin were last year?  Is it a perennial 30 + goal scorer like Skinner?  Is it a multi time all-star game participant? Or is it more subjective?  Are Tuch and Cozens now “stars” ? 

For me the guys who compete annually for the major awards are the superstars of the NHL, Makar, McKinnon, Matthews, McDavid, etc….

For forwards it seems to me that pt a game players and guys you can pencil in annually for 30+ goals are stars.  Defense and goaltending are more subjective.  

To answer the question, Levi, Power and Benson have the highest ceilings that could put them in “star” category.  I can see Levi having a Saros type upside.  Power is unique because of his size and skill level.  I can see him as a 50-60 pts D in his prime who plays both ways at an elite level eating 25 minutes a night.  Benson should be one a pt a game player in the NHL. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How do we define “star”? Is it someone in the running for a major award like TNT and Dahlin were last year?  Is it a perennial 30 + goal scorer like Skinner?  Is it a multi time all-star game participant? Or is it more subjective?  Are Tuch and Cozens now “stars” ? 

For me the guys who compete annually for the major awards are the superstars of the NHL, Makar, McKinnon, Matthews, McDavid, etc….

For forwards it seems to me that pt a game players and guys you can pencil in annually for 30+ goals are stars.  Defense and goaltending are more subjective.  

To answer the question, Levi, Power and Benson have the highest ceilings that could put them in “star” category.  I can see Levi having a Saros type upside.  Power is unique because of his size and skill level.  I can see him as a 50-60 pts D in his prime who plays both ways at an elite level eating 25 minutes a night.  Benson should be one a pt a game player in the NHL. 

After reading some posts about which players have the potential to be stars I thought of related topic. Would you rather have a star on your roster or would it be better to have 3 upper tier players who are an echelon below the lofty star level? Another aspect to that issue is it better to have one elite line and then three solid lines or would it be better to have a good top line supported by three good lower lines. The same line of reasoning can also apply to the defensive pairings. 

[nfreeman]

I think Quinn and JJP could both develop into stars.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I think Quinn and JJP could both develop into stars.

I wouldn't put them in that special category if the standard is being elite within the NHL talent pool. That is not to say that they won't be good players. I like both players, and especially with Quinn you can see episodes of high-end play. Anyone who has seen Crosby, McKinnon and McDavid play can quickly recognize that they are in a category that neither Quinn nor JJP will probably ever attain. I'm still very happy that both players are on the team. Would I consider Eichel to be an elite player? Yes. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

A couple of things from the Athletic

https://theathletic.com/4782966/2023/08/17/sabres-prospects-isak-rosen-nikita-novikov/

Fairburns Prospects 6-10

6. Rosen - Skating and Shot NHL level.  Still needs to add strength

7.  Novikov - Smooth skater and puck handler for a player 6'4"

8. Johnson - One of the best skaters at D camp the last 2 years.  

9. Poltapov - plays a different style than other Sabres forward prospects.  Still years from the NHL

10. Wahlberg - "Talented, fast, very skilled around the net. A hard player."  Has size as well at 6'3".

https://theathletic.com/4775018/2023/08/17/nhl-prospects-jan-mysak-tyler-kleven/

Players Wheeler over or under-ranked their draft year.  Krebs made the list as an over-rated player.

Quote

 

C/LW Peyton Krebs (Buffalo Sabres — No. 17, 2019)

My final draft ranking: No. 6

Krebs made his NHL debut, led the WHL in points, was named WHL Player of the Year, and played to a point per game in a stint in the AHL at 20. At 21, he became a full-time NHL player. This year, the 22-year-old will be a top-nine player on a Sabres team that has playoff aspirations, maybe even as a centre. He’s going to be a solid NHL player for a long time and has followed the timeline you’d hope a first-round pick would.

So why is he on this list? Because he still looks more like the kind of player you’d look to draft No. 17 rather than No. 6. Ahead of the 2019 draft, I fell in love with his combination of speed, skill, playmaking, and work ethic, arguing that he was more than his modest 1.06 points per game and minus-50 rating on a dreadful Kootenay team (an argument that was supported by the 40 percent of the team’s goals that he was in on). And while he was more than those things, his specific toolkit is one I’ve been too fond of in the past. In each of those ways, he actually profiled a lot like Alex Turcotte, another high pick I was too high on in retrospect. And in both cases, their lack of natural finishing ability limited their upside and should have kept them out of the top-10 range on my lists. I still really like Krebs as a player. He’s hard not to like. But profiles like his are ones I’m now more leery of than I once was, if only because while they usually produce good players, they’re missing the scoring punch needed to be a star unless the playmaking game is truly elite, which in Krebs and Turcotte’s case it wasn’t/isn’t quite there.

 

I agree with this assessment. 

 

 

 

[JohnC]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A couple of things from the Athletic

https://theathletic.com/4782966/2023/08/17/sabres-prospects-isak-rosen-nikita-novikov/

Fairburns Prospects 6-10

6. Rosen - Skating and Shot NHL level.  Still needs to add strength

7.  Novikov - Smooth skater and puck handler for a player 6'4"

8. Johnson - One of the best skaters at D camp the last 2 years.  

9. Poltapov - plays a different style than other Sabres forward prospects.  Still years from the NHL

10. Wahlberg - "Talented, fast, very skilled around the net. A hard player."  Has size as well at 6'3".

https://theathletic.com/4775018/2023/08/17/nhl-prospects-jan-mysak-tyler-kleven/

Players Wheeler over or under-ranked their draft year.  Krebs made the list as an over-rated player.

I agree with this assessment. 

 

 

 

I'm hoping that Krebs, JJP and Quinn (injured) were going to take a step up this season. Could you imagine how much better Krebs would be if he possessed a finishing touch? He's got the vision but right now not the shot. The players have so many young players with a lot of upside to draw from. The GMs plan was to build from within. And that's what is going on now. 

[Crusader1969]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A couple of things from the Athletic

https://theathletic.com/4782966/2023/08/17/sabres-prospects-isak-rosen-nikita-novikov/

Fairburns Prospects 6-10

6. Rosen - Skating and Shot NHL level.  Still needs to add strength

7.  Novikov - Smooth skater and puck handler for a player 6'4"

8. Johnson - One of the best skaters at D camp the last 2 years.  

9. Poltapov - plays a different style than other Sabres forward prospects.  Still years from the NHL

10. Wahlberg - "Talented, fast, very skilled around the net. A hard player."  Has size as well at 6'3".

https://theathletic.com/4775018/2023/08/17/nhl-prospects-jan-mysak-tyler-kleven/

Players Wheeler over or under-ranked their draft year.  Krebs made the list as an over-rated player.

I agree with this assessment. 

 

 

 

Glad to see Poltapov higher than on most lists but still too low to me.  I’m going to put him at 6 ahead of Rosen

 

[Pimlach]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

I'm curious if anyone thinks we have any actual stars in the pipeline?

And by stars I mean players who are in the conversation when people are talking about NHL stars, not really good players and local heroes: Dahlin and Thompson last year emerged as stars. Eichel is a star. Miller was a star.  Skinner and Vanek and Reinhart and Pominville and Drury were very good first line players, but not stars. Hasek was a superstar.

I think Power could be a star and if anyone might join him it will be Levi.

I have very high hopes for Quinn reaching that Pominville level and Cozens is already close, but it's no guarantee.

Beyond that, many others could get there, but I suspect most of our best prospects will fall somewhere between Rasmus Asplund and JP Dumont.

Cozen could be a "star" - in the mold of the two-way, all around players, like Bergeron.  

Benson is possible.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Glad to see Poltapov higher than on most lists but still too low to me.  I’m going to put him at 6 ahead of Rosen

 

Ok.  That will make @dudacek happy as well. 😉

Two questions:  When (if?) do you see him coming to NA? What’s his offensive ceiling?  He has 2 years left on his KHL contract and Fairburn projects him as a 3rd or 4th line player in the NHL.  I think that’s a lower ceiling then I’d give Neuchev or Wahlberg.  That is not to say that we don’t need smart hardworking edgy forwards, we do, but I think the lower ceiling and uncertainty of his arrival in NA limit him in most rankings (including mine). 

All that said, After our top 5 players plus Johnson and Novikov, I think people can make a case for the following forwards in any order - Neuchev, Poltapov, Wahlberg, Nadeau and Kisakov.  I also like Kozak and can see him coming on this season with a bigger role for the Amerks. I do however  think Rosen, because of his skating and shot make him a better prospect than Poltapov.  Also he is here and if he continues to progress, he could be competing for an NHL roster spot as early as 2024-25.

Edited August 17, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

Speaking of Poltapov:  he was drafted in 2021, and is under KHL contract until 2025.  Does that 4-year gap mean that he could decide not to sign with the Sabres and just become a UFA in the summer of 2025?

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Speaking of Poltapov:  he was drafted in 2021, and is under KHL contract until 2025.  Does that 4-year gap mean that he could decide not to sign with the Sabres and just become a UFA in the summer of 2025?

Interesting question. I think we retain his rights as long as we have extended him a contract offer, but honestly, I'm not sure.  

I did find this article. https://www.nhl.com/flyers/news/meltzers-411-drafting-rights--philadelphia-flyers/c-307757112

Quote

 

In the case of a players drafted from the Russian Federation, NHL teams hold the players rights indefinitely. That is because the Russian Hockey Federation does not have a formal transfer agreement with the NHL and transfers must be conducted on a case-by-case basis. There is, however, a non-interference agreement between the NHL and KHL that teams in one league must honor as valid still-active contracts in the other league.  

Once a Russian player's obligations to his Russian parent team are fulfilled, he is free to sign with an NHL team. This can come about either after his Russian league contract expires or an early release is negotiated.

 

 

[Mustache of God]

Eventually something will have to give and the GM will need to make a decision to move some of these forward prospects. In the past 3 drafts we've selected 8 Forwards in rounds 1 or 2. That's a massive amount of talent that will be competing to make the roster and we already have the following players locked up through 25-26: Skinner, Thompson, Cozens, and Tuch. I'm also expecting extensions for Quinn, Peterka, Krebs and maybe Mitts.  That leaves 4-5 roster spots open solely for our forward prospects and that doesn't account for acquiring players via trade or signings, or later round prospects who might make a developmental leap.

Assuming we have long term extensions for Dahlin and Power, along with Muel we'll have half of our defense locked down long term. I'd imagine we'll see some forward prospects shipped out to bring in solid defensive help. The best part is with Dahlin and Power, we don't need to get any splashy high octane D-men, we really just need the non-sexy guys who can play solid shut down roles.

It's a crowded bus and that's a great problem to have.  

2023:

1. Benson #13

2. Walberg #39

2022:
3. Savoie #9

4. Östlund #16

5. Kulich #28

2021: 
6. Rosen #14

7. Poltapov #33

8. Kisakov #53

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Speaking of Poltapov:  he was drafted in 2021, and is under KHL contract until 2025.  Does that 4-year gap mean that he could decide not to sign with the Sabres and just become a UFA in the summer of 2025?

No. My understanding is the lack of a Russian transfer agreement means the Sabres keep his ELC rights in perpetuity.

Another Poltapov tidbit for those concerned about his KHL offence. Here are the KHL numbers last year from high pick forwards in the past few drafts. None are what you call impressive, not even Michkov.

• Matvei Michkov 30 9/11/20
• Ilya Fedotov 42 9/5/14
• Danila Yurov 59 6/6/12
• Victor Neuchev 57 4/8/12
• Prokhkor Poltapov 56 5/5/10
• Ivan Mirosechenko 23 3/1/4
• Fedor Svechkov 27 2/2/4
• Daniil But 15 2/0/2

Young players don’t get big roles on KHL teams, particularly the strong teams. Michkov ended up in Sochi because of lack of playing time in St. Pete’s. Poltapov was on the best team in the league.

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by dudacek

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Ok.  That will make @dudacek happy as well. 😉

Two questions:  When (if?) do you see him coming to NA? What’s his offensive ceiling?  He has 2 years left on his KHL contract and Fairburn projects him as a 3rd or 4th line player in the NHL.  I think that’s a lower ceiling then I’d give Neuchev or Wahlberg.  That is not to say that we don’t need smart hardworking edgy forwards, we do, but I think the lower ceiling and uncertainty of his arrival in NA limit him in most rankings (including mine). 

All that said, After our top 5 players plus Johnson and Novikov, I think people can make a case for the following forwards in any order - Neuchev, Poltapov, Wahlberg, Nadeau and Kisakov.  I also like Kozak and can see him coming on this season with a bigger role for the Amerks. I do however  think Rosen, because of his skating and shot make him a better prospect than Poltapov.  Also he is here and if he continues to progress, he could be competing for an NHL roster spot as early as 2024-25.

Hard to gauge his offensive upside. I think we will get a good idea of it this coming season as he earns more minutes on CSKA.   Pretty sure we we looking at a mid 6 winner with 15-20 goal potential.  However , I think he will have a big impact on the success of the club.  
He’s just a guy you want on your side in the playoffs, when space on the ice disappear and guys like Mitch Marner do their Houdini impersonation.  That being said , he has skill and can score. In his draft season he had 52 points in 61 MHL games, which while isn’t great, it’s also not terrible. In the corners and in the proverbial “dirty areas” is where he will shine.  As Fairburn notes, he is just different than the other 1st & 2nd round prospects in the Stable 

[North Buffalo]

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

After reading some posts about which players have the potential to be stars I thought of related topic. Would you rather have a star on your roster or would it be better to have 3 upper tier players who are an echelon below the lofty star level? Another aspect to that issue is it better to have one elite line and then three solid lines or would it be better to have a good top line supported by three good lower lines. The same line of reasoning can also apply to the defensive pairings. 

Depends on cost... I think you need a D star and an O star and maybe a couple up and coming salary controlled guys... cant be like the Leafs with their eggs in a few baskets

[PerreaultForever]

23 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I see no reason why Kulich can't play 3rd line center.  Also, Mitts and Krebs are still in the picture, and if Krebs breaks out as the 3rd line center this year, the road to the NHL gets even harder for Östlund.  

I see Kulich as a second line winger but time will tell. 

Ultimately I see the second line as Quinn-Cozens-Kulich

with Peterka anchoring the 3rd line eventually with Benson or Savoie or whoever excels.

[thewookie1]

57 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I see Kulich as a second line winger but time will tell. 

Ultimately I see the second line as Quinn-Cozens-Kulich

with Peterka anchoring the 3rd line eventually with Benson or Savoie or whoever excels.

Peterka definitely strikes me as the overly talented 3rd line winger whom only great teams have. A player who could be a 2nd liner many places but due to depth is on the 3rd line eating lesser competition for breakfast. Simultaneously however Peterka may also be end up like Chris Kunitz who was a 2/3W who played on the top line due to his great chemistry with Crosby. (Peterka to Quinn in this case) 

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

Depends on cost... I think you need a D star and an O star and maybe a couple up and coming salary controlled guys... cant be like the Leafs with their eggs in a few baskets

Dahlin fits the bill of a defensive star and Tage "might" fit the bill as an offensive star. Maybe not too far in the future Power might be categorized as a defensive star. There are a number of young players such as Quinn, JJP who as young players will become good players. I consider Cozens a good young player now. 

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Peterka definitely strikes me as the overly talented 3rd line winger whom only great teams have. A player who could be a 2nd liner many places but due to depth is on the 3rd line eating lesser competition for breakfast. Simultaneously however Peterka may also be end up like Chris Kunitz who was a 2/3W who played on the top line due to his great chemistry with Crosby. (Peterka to Quinn in this case) 

Ya, chemistry can change things and we will see how that unfolds. I see Peterka as a better fit on what will eventually be a grittier 2 way 3rd line. Maybe that's just in my wish list though as it's the kind of line I'd like to see. Sabres may have different ideas. In any event I see Peterka being able to be dominant in 3rd line match ups but maybe not quite able to match up on a 1 or 2 line against good teams. I definitely see him as a consistent mid level contributor though. 

[JohnC]

16 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Peterka definitely strikes me as the overly talented 3rd line winger whom only great teams have. A player who could be a 2nd liner many places but due to depth is on the 3rd line eating lesser competition for breakfast. Simultaneously however Peterka may also be end up like Chris Kunitz who was a 2/3W who played on the top line due to his great chemistry with Crosby. (Peterka to Quinn in this case) 

What's happening with this franchise isthat it is accumulating enough talent to the point where a player who has second-line ability plays on a third line. Instead of categorizing a line as #2 or #3, we actually have or in the process of having a 2A and 2B lines. The talent surplus allows for players to move up and even down the lines and still retain productivity. When Mitts was moved from the third line to the first line because of Tage's injury, that line not only didn't falter but it thrived. Needless to say, this is a good trend. 

[Flashsabre]

Tage wasn’t even a 4th liner a couple years ago. When the Eichel trade happened Nick Kypreos said the Sabres only got a 3rd liner back in Tuch.

My point being I wouldn’t put too much effort into arguing what line 18 and 19 year old prospects are going to end up playing on.

[PerreaultForever]

See the trick with prospects as assets is evaluating them early and moving them (if you think they are duds) BEFORE other GMs also realize they are duds. If you hold them too long and they don't make it they become virtually worthless. Sometimes you have to gamble and follow your instincts. Keeping ALL your prospects and expecting most of them to become something is just wishful thinking and almost never works. 

[kas23]

As we have learned, unfortunately stars aren’t stars until they play for a winning team. 

[steveoath]

XBuffalo did a ranking of the top 25 sabres prospects