Who is your guy? Rating the young Sabre forwards

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, French Collection said:

It is a good problem to have.

KA must not fall in love with his picks, prospects and players because there will need to be moves.

Power play ice time will be at a premium but I think the scoring talent means the Sabres can play a third line that can score like many teams’ second line. The matchups this creates is a good thing.

If Krebs ends up as a long term 4C the Sabres C spine will be in great shape.

Oh it’s great for the Sabres, but this thread is about the young players reaching their potential.  Krebs in another organization might grow into a top 6 forward.  Here he may be stuck as a 4th line center.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I get the contract aspect when it comes to Krebs, but he’s two years into a 12-year career. He’s moving up the roster, not out.

The only way his contract next summer becomes an issue is if he has the type of season those OK with trading him think he won’t have.

I’m not sure that’s 100% true.  With guys pushing from below, I can easily see a scenario where a hockey trade is made swapping Krebs for a D in a similar situation.  Same applies to Mitts.  

It’s funny but I see an easier road to the NHL for guys like Rosen and Rousek replacing KO and Z then I do for some of the “higher” skill guys.  

For Kulich and Savoie, VO getting trading might open an opportunity for them to earn an NHL job, unless Mitts is moved to the wing and Krebs earns the 3rd line center role.  

Like I said, to maximize their potential they are going to have to get the right opportunity.  
 

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Pretty much everyone acknowledges that trades are needed. Very few seem to want to make them yet.

At least with the forward group, I’m good waiting for the season to start before making changes. How are JJP and Quinn’s sophomore years going to look? Is Cozens going to take yet another step? Will Tuch’s finishing regress?

Defense shouldn’t wait for the season to start. Goaltending as well in my opinion. Offense? It can wait.
 

 

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Norcal said:

JJP is still underrated but when it's all said and done he will go down in Sabres lore as one of the best to ever put on the uniform. 

 

 

[French Collection]

My initial shock at the Quinn draft has turned into a total buy in on the kid.

He’s got a lot of skills and he is just scratching the surface. When he gets onto PP1, he will improve that unit by being a shooting threat as well as having the vision, IQ, puck handling and passing ability to enhance the probability of scoring.

His defensive game is decent and will get better. He was an effective PKer in junior and perhaps can get some of that ice time soon.

[nfreeman]

My responses to the poll were driven by probabilities, which in turn were driven by what we've seen at the NHL level.  On that basis, I chose Quinn as most likely star, and Savoie as least likely (since he's still in junior) but those are just guesses.  Certainly JJP showed some great, forceful flashes last year, and the buzz around Kulich and Savoie is compelling.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m not sure that’s 100% true.  With guys pushing from below, I can easily see a scenario where a hockey trade is made swapping Krebs for a D in a similar situation.  Same applies to Mitts.  

It’s funny but I see an easier road to the NHL for guys like Rosen and Rousek replacing KO and Z then I do for some of the “higher” skill guys.  

For Kulich and Savoie, VO getting trading might open an opportunity for them to earn an NHL job, unless Mitts is moved to the wing and Krebs earns the 3rd line center role.  

Like I said, to maximize their potential they are going to have to get the right opportunity.  
 

One of the bonuses of having players such as Krebs and Mitts is that they do have the ability to play on a higher line when the inevitable injuries occur. Mitts underscored that point when he was moved up to the top line when Tage was contending with injuries and played well. What you, @dudacekothers are highlighting is the fact that the Sabres are building depth and versatility within their roster. That's where we are right now. That's why fans should be optimistic. 

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, inkman said:

Man if Kulich becomes a gangsta rap loving, gold chain flaunting shootout specialist (ok Ales was decent on the PP), this fan base will melt down. 

If he surpasses Tage, Tuch and Cozens in terms of production this team should be making Stanley Cup runs on the reg. 

There’s a non negligible chance we just saw Tage’s career year, and I like Quinn better defensively already. Tuch I think will be exiting his prime as Quinn is entering his. It’s not so much that I think Quinn will be better than these guys, just liable to have his best years at a time where he might lead the charge. Cozens definitely could be the better all around F. Quinn has a little extra something Cozens doesn’t though imo, that raw finish around the net 

A little more pure skill

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

Like @PASabreFan I’ve been watching us overrate our prospects for years. Unlike him, I do let myself get hyped and enjoy reading about peoples projections. They’re not all going to be Dylan Cozens or Rasmus Dahlin. I’m trying to spark some conversation around that.

I’m not saying Savoie will be Ennis, but I am saying a small, exciting offensively skilled player is more likely to be Ennis than, say, Mitch Marner, who might be his best case scenario.

At 19, Savoie probably has 25 pounds on Ennis, so he does have that going for him.

What a bold stance to take in these parts, and I mean that in seriousness lol.

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I mentioned opportunity as a limiting factor for some of these guys. For example Krebs might already be stuck as our 4th line center, especially if DG prefers Mitts at center.  Now what happens to Krebs if Mitts is extended? 

Let’s  assume for arguments sake that JJP and Quinn hit 50 pts plus this season and KA moves to sign them long term.  Now your top six is written in stone for the next 3 years at least.  With the top 6 locked up where does Savoie play. 

Who do Savoie, Kulich, Östlund, Neuchev, and Rosen push out of the organization to even get an opportunity to reach their offensive potential?  

Obviously this is a great problem to have, but at some point some really hard decisions are going to have to be made to move on from some really good players to open up opportunities for these kids.  

 

This is a big reason it’s easy for me to trade 13 for Hellebuyck. We have prospect/asset liquidity and having what likely (imo) amounts to a pretty great season with him between the pipes is a worthy pursuit to me

Edited June 26, 2023 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This is a big reason it’s easy for me to trade 13 for Hellebuyck. We have prospect/asset liquidity and having what likely (imo) amounts to a pretty great season with him between the pipes is a worthy pursuit to me

I’m not against trading the 13th or even trading down to gain other assets to make a move for a top 4 D or goalie.  There is not a huge difference in quality between the guys I have listed at 12 down to 21 or so.  Stenberg, who I have at 24, has some real advocates as well.  

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m not against trading the 13th or even trading down to gain other assets to make a move for a top 4 D or goalie.  There is not a huge difference in quality between the guys I have listed at 12 down to 21 or so.  Stenberg, who I have at 24, has some real advocates as well.  

I’m a big big ole proponent of trading down, just in general as a concept 

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m not against trading the 13th or even trading down to gain other assets to make a move for a top 4 D or goalie.  There is not a huge difference in quality between the guys I have listed at 12 down to 21 or so.  Stenberg, who I have at 24, has some real advocates as well.  

 

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’m a big big ole proponent of trading down, just in general as a concept 

Historical data says there is a huge difference between 13 and 24 in the NHL draft. 

Trading down in the NHL draft is terrible idea in the first round and sometimes the 2nd. This isn't the NFL. 

[Thorner]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Historical data says there is a huge difference between 13 and 24 in the NHL draft. 

Trading down in the NHL draft is terrible idea in the first round and sometimes the 2nd. This isn't the NFL. 

I’ve read a lot of data that suggests the opposite, trading down in the NFL makes less sense because of the higher certainty of scouting whereas in the NHL it pays to pick up extra picks because much of it is crap shoot anyways 

the historical data on the difference in value between pick i dunno 13 and pick say 20 is a significantly less affecting variable than the quality of GM doing the pick. I’d be fine moving down a few spots in fact id advocate for it outright 

Edited June 26, 2023 by Thorny

[Pimlach]

55 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There’s a non negligible chance we just saw Tage’s career year, and I like Quinn better defensively already. Tuch I think will be exiting his prime as Quinn is entering his. It’s not so much that I think Quinn will be better than these guys, just liable to have his best years at a time where he might lead the charge. Cozens definitely could be the better all around F. Quinn has a little extra something Cozens doesn’t though imo, that raw finish around the net 

A little more pure skill

Tage will score a lot more goals before this is over.   

Cozens has showed incredible spunk (grit) and leadership.  More than most 21 year old players and by a wide margin.   Cozens carried two rookies last year, when their minutes were sheltered he continue to play good hockey on other lines and in any situation.   Cozens' game is more than offensive production.  

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’ve read a lot of data that suggests the opposite, trading down in the NFL makes less sense because of the higher certainty of scouting whereas in the NHL it pays to pick up extra picks because much of it is crap shoot anyways 

No it doesn't. I have no idea what you have read that said that but I will flat out say it is wrong to trade down in the first round of the NHL draft. Every single analysis of historical draft trends show that the further back in the draft you get the more luck is involved and the more unlikely you become to get an NHL player. In the NFL you can move back and still get an NFL player because you know what you are getting. I am fuming that this is your conclusion because it is ass backwards. 

If pick 13 yields an NHL players 58% of the time and you think it is a good idea to trade down to 25 (30% NHL hit rate) because you pick up a 2nd rounder (20% hit rate) idk what to say to that. It gets worse the further down you move. For example if you trade out of round 2 (pick 45) and you get a 3rd a 5th and 6th, you have effectively done nothing more than give yourself less of a chance at an NHL player. It is why trading up for JJP made sense. 

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

Edited June 26, 2023 by LGR4GM

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I am fuming that this is your conclusion because it is ass backwards. 

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Tage will score a lot more goals before this is over.   

Cozens has showed incredible spunk (grit) and leadership.  More than most 21 year old players and by a wide margin.   Cozens carried two rookies last year, when their minutes were sheltered he continue to play good hockey on other lines and in any situation.   Cozens' game is more than offensive production.  

Your clarification of Spunk was the real mvp

- - - 

Cozens is a two-way force for sure, i staunchly advocated before last season for Dylan (as opposed to Casey) to remain at C exactly for this reason: I’m glad the staff felt the same way so far

[PerreaultForever]

I think several of these guys can be decent NHL players but I still think Kulich could be something special. 

Peterka will end up as a solid 3rd liner. I'm still not sold on Krebs and just don't know about Quinn. Still want him to bulk up more. The potential is there. Savoie is my biggest question mark and the rest idk. Remains to be seen.  

[Pimlach]

4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think several of these guys can be decent NHL players but I still think Kulich could be something special. 

Peterka will end up as a solid 3rd liner. I'm still not sold on Krebs and just don't know about Quinn. Still want him to bulk up more. The potential is there. Savoie is my biggest question mark and the rest idk. Remains to be seen.  

Kulich being compared to Kotalik concerns me.   All the talk about him on this board has me thinking he will be a much more consistent player and a potential 30 goal scorer.  

What makes me excited about Peterka is his play in playoffs and tournaments.  A player that plays big when it counts is always a nice asset.  

Quinn has showed he can finish and his 2-way game steadily improved as the season went on.   He needs to get stronger as you said.   T 6'1"  185 he has the frame to work with.  

Savoie being likened to Ennis is also startling, in a bad way.  Other than height I am expecting Savoie to be two levels above Ennis, I player I never cared for to much.  

[Weave]

50 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’ve read a lot of data that suggests the opposite, trading down in the NFL makes less sense because of the higher certainty of scouting whereas in the NHL it pays to pick up extra picks because much of it is crap shoot anyways 

the historical data on the difference in value between pick i dunno 13 and pick say 20 is a significantly less affecting variable than the quality of GM doing the pick. I’d be fine moving down a few spots in fact id advocate for it outright 

That goes against everything I have ever read or seen regarding odds of picks making an NHL impact, and everything I have seen or read regarding the statistics behind trading back in the NHL.

The likelihood of a pick making it strongly suggests teams need to move up, not down.

[Thorner]

31 minutes ago, Weave said:

That goes against everything I have ever read or seen regarding odds of picks making an NHL impact, and everything I have seen or read regarding the statistics behind trading back in the NHL.

The likelihood of a pick making it strongly suggests teams need to move up, not down.

You misunderstand, I’m not talking about trading out of rounds and trading out of tiers. I’m talking about trading back a few spots and picking up an extra pick in the process. Moving from 43rd to 48th isn’t going to alter your odds, the likelihood the pick is going to “hit” there is relatively poor to begin with. Acknowledging that and giving yourself 2 kicks at the can for the cost of a few spots is the right play in most cases. Of course, there are times a GM is super dialled in on a guy, but even in those cases it’s often hubris 

[Thorner]

46 minutes ago, Weave said:

That goes against everything I have ever read or seen regarding odds of picks making an NHL impact, and everything I have seen or read regarding the statistics behind trading back in the NHL.

The likelihood of a pick making it strongly suggests teams need to move up, not down.

Here’s one of the many articles that sorta gets into it, if you find this kind of stuff interesting 

https://theleafsnation.com/news/amp/is-it-worth-it-to-trade-up-in-the-nhl-draft

“This is exactly why it usually makes more sense to trade down than up: it isn’t so much that GMs overvalue high draft picks, but that they undervalue low ones.  Thus, it may not even be that you’re giving yourself more kicks at the can that makes trading down a smart decision, but that you’re in many cases unknowingly increasing the overall value of your original draft pick the more times you trade down, the more picks you acquire.

For what it’s worth, my understanding is that Kyle Dubas is a big fan of trading down in the draft.  In the OHL you actually can’t trade your first round pick, which was apparently much to his chagrin.  That’s both good news and unsurprising given his interest in analytics.“

- - - 

this one is ok too

https://hockeyandstuff.weebly.com/chaces-blog/how-bad-has-trading-up-been

Edited June 26, 2023 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

No it doesn't. I have no idea what you have read that said that but I will flat out say it is wrong to trade down in the first round of the NHL draft. Every single analysis of historical draft trends show that the further back in the draft you get the more luck is involved and the more unlikely you become to get an NHL player. In the NFL you can move back and still get an NFL player because you know what you are getting. I am fuming that this is your conclusion because it is ass backwards. 

If pick 13 yields an NHL players 58% of the time and you think it is a good idea to trade down to 25 (30% NHL hit rate) because you pick up a 2nd rounder (20% hit rate) idk what to say to that. It gets worse the further down you move. For example if you trade out of round 2 (pick 45) and you get a 3rd a 5th and 6th, you have effectively done nothing more than give yourself less of a chance at an NHL player. It is why trading up for JJP made sense. 

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

https://theathletic.com/1798463/2020/06/12/by-the-numbers-revisiting-the-true-value-of-a-draft-pick/

Modern research actually shows that value can be obtained by trading down.  Sorry!

Even using Dobber's numbers you can see where the value might be obtained.  In the model you quoted, 74% of picks 6-15 make the NHL, 65% of picks 16-31, and 35% of 2nd rd picks.  Even using simple math, trading down from 13 to say 20 and picking up a 2nd rd pick would work to the Sabres advantage mathematically.  Also, I think his data is flawed.  The results of picks 16-25 are significantly better than picks 26-31(32).  To be measured properly picks 1 & 2, then 3-5, 6-10, 11-15 and so on to truly understand the tiers within the 1st rd.   

 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Kulich being compared to Kotalik concerns me.   All the talk about him on this board has me thinking he will be a much more consistent player and a potential 30 goal scorer.  

What makes me excited about Peterka is his play in playoffs and tournaments.  A player that plays big when it counts is always a nice asset.  

Quinn has showed he can finish and his 2-way game steadily improved as the season went on.   He needs to get stronger as you said.   T 6'1"  185 he has the frame to work with.  

Savoie being likened to Ennis is also startling, in a bad way.  Other than height I am expecting Savoie to be two levels above Ennis, I player I never cared for to much.  

People get locked on Sabres to Sabres comparisons. Kulich will be a sniper. Remains to be seen how well he goes to the dirty areas and how much drive and determination he has at the higher level. I see a little Pasternak in him. Not saying he'll be THAT good, but there are elements. 

Savoie concerns me. Little guys are better off in this league than they used to be, but to be really good they still need that strength and snarl to fight through things. I'm not sure he has it.