Who is your guy? Rating the young Sabre forwards

[dudacek]

Talk in another thread got me wondering: With all the exciting young forwards on the Sabres, which ones are we most excited about?

Who is your favourite? The most overrated? The most overlooked?

[Randall Flagg]

I believe Quinn's floor is Alex Steen with a bit more skill, and his ceiling is being 90% of Mitch Marner. The probability he hits each can be roughly represented by the distribution below.

I believe Peterka's floor is Afinogenov (average Max, not peak) and his ceiling is Nikita Kucherov.

I believe Savoie's floor is Mitts before we liked him, and his ceiling is Briere

I believe Kulich's floor is Armia and his ceiling is Vanek

 

After running my models and integrating these functions I use the singular scalar output to rank them as follows: Quinn = JJP > Savoie >> Kulich

 

JJP has best ceiling, Quinn has best floor. All will see the NHL, Savoie has potential to be the worst/least NHL-capable player there but his ceiling beats Kulich who I think could find a way down avenues Matt cannot

[dudacek]

Most likely outcomes:

Kulich = Kotalik

Peterka = Max

Quinn = Vanek

Savoie = Ennis

I will say I see the same it factor others do in Peterka and I would not be surprised if ends up the best of them all. 

Edited June 26, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

This is an almost impossible question.  So much will be determined by opportunity.  

From a pure talent standpoint Quinn, JJP, Savoie are arguably the most talented.  Östlund and Krebs maybe next on that list.  However, how do you teach Kulich's drive or Neuchev's sniper skills and motor?  I honestly can't wait to see how Neuchev measures up in the AHL to get a gauge on his NHL possibilities.

The Sabres are the deepest we've ever seen at forward.  Imagine if we add a Moore or Danielson or Honzak from this draft to the list.

I know many here think the world of Quinn.  He is an excellent player with tremendous upside.  However, there is something about JJP, Kulich, and Neuchev that really intrigue me.  @freester and I were watching the draft together last year and I'm pounding the table for Kulich at 16 and then screaming at the TV for him at 28 when we drafted the 3rd time in the first.  I see Kulich as a future ROR type and our long-term 3C.  I also think JJP has pt per game potential.

Edited June 26, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

And for the 2nd tier:

Krebs: Andre Savard

Neuchev: Luke Adam

Östlund: Curtis Brown

Poltopov: Vaclav Varada

Rosen: Jason Dawe

Rousek: Jiri Novotny

Big asterisk next to Neuchev - that’s purely based on his profile.

Also, Östlund will produce more points than Brown and definitely be a centre, it’s more about the reliability, smarts and hustle there.

Edited June 26, 2023 by dudacek

[SwampD]

I really hope you are underrating all of them, cuz those ceilings ain’t getting us a Cup.

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I really hope you are underrating all of them, cuz those ceilings ain’t getting us a Cup.

Those weren’t ceilings, just what I’m kinda expecting. Some of them are going to be better, some worse.

To your point: also Dahlin, Tuch, Power, Thompson and Levi.

[Thorner]

Quinn for me. 

I see him ending up as a Mark Stone type player.

I don’t see the ceiling others do with Peterka but he’s certainly got legitimate top 6 upside. 

Savoie/Kulich. Who knows. Need to see more of them. I do like Savoie stylistically, reminds of Briere somewhat.

The only one I see as a sure sure thing (star wise) is Quinn. I’ve said before I think he has a good shot at being our best forward in a couple years. 
 

[inkman]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

Most likely outcomes:

Kulich = Kotalik

Peterka = Max

Quinn = Vanek

Savoie = Ennis

I will say I see the same it factor others do in Peterka and I would not be surprised if ends up the best of them all. 

Man if Kulich becomes a gangsta rap loving, gold chain flaunting shootout specialist (ok Ales was decent on the PP), this fan base will melt down. 

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

Quinn for me. 

I see him ending up as a Mark Stone type player.

I don’t see the ceiling others do with Peterka but he’s certainly got legitimate top 6 upside. 

Savoie/Kulich. Who knows. Need to see more of them. I do like Savoie stylistically, reminds of Briere somewhat.

The only one I see as a sure sure thing (star wise) is Quinn. I’ve said before I think he has a good shot at being our best forward in a couple years. 
 

If he surpasses Tage, Tuch and Cozens in terms of production this team should be making Stanley Cup runs on the reg. 

[Eleven]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

Talk in another thread got me wondering: With all the exciting young forwards on the Sabres, which ones are we most excited about?

Who is your favourite? The most overrated? The most overlooked?

Speaking of overlooked, why is Krebs included while same-age Cozens is not?

[Archie Lee]

20 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Speaking of overlooked, why is Krebs included while same-age Cozens is not?

I won’t speak for the original poster, but likely this is because Cozens has already “hit” as a prospect and the others haven’t fully done so yet. 
 

Also, going by birth year, Quinn is the same age as Cozens and Krebs.  In my view, the oversight is that Krebs is worthy of being included in the 1st poll. I think Krebs is going to be a key core piece for us.

(queue the Krebs trade)

[Stoner]

I've been reading these threads since I don't know when. I'm stuck in Sabres prison.

[Pimlach]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Most likely outcomes:

Kulich = Kotalik

Peterka = Max

Quinn = Vanek

Savoie = Ennis

I will say I see the same it factor others do in Peterka and I would not be surprised if ends up the best of them all. 

Wow.  This projections disappointment across the board.  Especially Savoie. 
 

If true, why is KA so reluctant to trade?  I suspect that KA’s analytics guys are projecting much more. 

[JohnC]

16 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I've been reading these threads since I don't know when. I'm stuck in Sabres prison.

You may not be aware of it but the prison door has been unlocked. All you have to do is walk out of that suffocating room. 🤡

[Broken Ankles]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Most likely outcomes:

Kulich = Kotalik

Peterka = Max

Quinn = Vanek

Savoie = Ennis

I will say I see the same it factor others do in Peterka and I would not be surprised if ends up the best of them all. 

Really?  Based on size, playing in the WHL and scoring about the same point in draft eligible year?  His draft position in a year that projects higher than others must give him a better outcome than Ennis.  

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is an almost impossible question.  So much will be determined by opportunity.  

From a pure talent standpoint Quinn, JJP, Savoie are arguably the most talented.  Östlund and Krebs maybe next on that list.  However, how do you teach Kulich's drive or Neuchev's sniper skills and motor?  I honestly can't wait to see how Neuchev measures up in the AHL to get a gauge on his NHL possibilities.

The Sabres are the deepest we've ever seen at forward.  Imagine if we add a Moore or Danielson or Honzak from this draft to the list.

I know many here think the world of Quinn.  He is an excellent player with tremendous upside.  However, there is something about JJP, Kulich, and Neuchev that really intrigue me.  @freester and I were watching the draft together last year and I'm pounding the table for Kulich at 16 and then screaming at the TV for him at 28 when we drafted the 3rd time in the first.  I see Kulich as a future ROR type and our long-term 3C.  I also think JJP has pt per game potential.

What's impressive about the list of players @dudacek presented is the length of it. Just through internal improvement this franchise will rise. There has ben a lot of attention to this team's evident deficiencies but what is exciding is that so many players already on this roster and those who are close to moving up the ranks will get better. That's the exciting part of the story. 

[dudacek]

48 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Speaking of overlooked, why is Krebs included while same-age Cozens is not?

 

22 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I won’t speak for the original poster, but likely this is because Cozens has already “hit” as a prospect and the others haven’t fully done so yet. 
 

Also, going by birth year, Quinn is the same age as Cozens and Krebs.  In my view, the oversight is that Krebs is worthy of being included in the 1st poll. I think Krebs is going to be a key core piece for us.

(queue the Krebs trade)

Archie got it. Cozens might still get better, but he’s emerged in a way these others have not.

The polls are mostly inspired by posts about “I’d trade…” and “we’re not trading…” and reflect my perceptions of what I’m reading.

[dudacek]

48 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I've been reading these threads since I don't know when. I'm stuck in Sabres prison.

 

22 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Really?  Based on size, playing in the WHL and scoring about the same point in draft eligible year?  His draft position in a year that projects higher than others must give him a better outcome than Ennis.  

Like @PASabreFan I’ve been watching us overrate our prospects for years. Unlike him, I do let myself get hyped and enjoy reading about peoples projections. They’re not all going to be Dylan Cozens or Rasmus Dahlin. I’m trying to spark some conversation around that.

I’m not saying Savoie will be Ennis, but I am saying a small, exciting offensively skilled player is more likely to be Ennis than, say, Mitch Marner, who might be his best case scenario.

At 19, Savoie probably has 25 pounds on Ennis, so he does have that going for him.

Edited June 26, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

I mentioned opportunity as a limiting factor for some of these guys. For example Krebs might already be stuck as our 4th line center, especially if DG prefers Mitts at center.  Now what happens to Krebs if Mitts is extended? 

Let’s  assume for arguments sake that JJP and Quinn hit 50 pts plus this season and KA moves to sign them long term.  Now your top six is written in stone for the next 3 years at least.  With the top 6 locked up where does Savoie play. 

Who do Savoie, Kulich, Östlund, Neuchev, and Rosen push out of the organization to even get an opportunity to reach their offensive potential?  

Obviously this is a great problem to have, but at some point some really hard decisions are going to have to be made to move on from some really good players to open up opportunities for these kids.  

 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I mentioned opportunity as a limiting factor for some of these guys. For example Krebs might already be stuck as our 4th line center, especially if DG prefers Mitts at center.  Now what happens to Krebs if Mitts is extended? 

Let’s  assume for arguments sake that JJP and Quinn hit 50 pts plus this season and KA moves to sign them long term.  Now your top six is written in stone for the next 3 years at least.  With the top 6 locked up where does Savoie play. 

Who do Savoie, Kulich, Östlund, Neuchev, and Rosen push out of the organization to even get an opportunity to reach their offensive potential?  

Obviously this is a great problem to have, but at some point some really hard decisions are going to have to be made to move on from some really good players to open up opportunities for these kids.  

 

Pretty much everyone acknowledges that trades are needed. Very few seem to want to make them yet.

[Stoner]

29 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You may not be aware of it but the prison door has been unlocked. All you have to do is walk out of that suffocating room. 🤡

I've been rattling this cup for nothing?

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Pretty much everyone acknowledges that trades are needed. Very few seem to want to make them yet.

Which begs the question, who are the most vulnerable current forwards and who in the pipeline looks like their most likely replacement?

Obviously VO is probably tops on that list, followed by KO and Z.  I’d says Krebs and Mitts are next, given each has one year left on their current deals. When does Skinner get added to this list? 

[Norcal]

JJP is still underrated but when it's all said and done he will go down in Sabres lore as one of the best to ever put on the uniform. 

 

 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which begs the question, who are the most vulnerable current forwards and who in the pipeline looks like their most likely replacement?

Obviously VO is probably tops on that list, followed by KO and Z.  I’d says Krebs and Mitts are next, given each has one year left on their current deals. When does Skinner get added to this list? 

I get the contract aspect when it comes to Krebs, but he’s two years into a 12-year career. He’s moving up the roster, not out.

The only way his contract next summer becomes an issue is if he has the type of season those OK with trading him think he won’t have.

[French Collection]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I mentioned opportunity as a limiting factor for some of these guys. For example Krebs might already be stuck as our 4th line center, especially if DG prefers Mitts at center.  Now what happens to Krebs if Mitts is extended? 

Let’s  assume for arguments sake that JJP and Quinn hit 50 pts plus this season and KA moves to sign them long term.  Now your top six is written in stone for the next 3 years at least.  With the top 6 locked up where does Savoie play. 

Who do Savoie, Kulich, Östlund, Neuchev, and Rosen push out of the organization to even get an opportunity to reach their offensive potential?  

Obviously this is a great problem to have, but at some point some really hard decisions are going to have to be made to move on from some really good players to open up opportunities for these kids.  

 

It is a good problem to have.

KA must not fall in love with his picks, prospects and players because there will need to be moves.

Power play ice time will be at a premium but I think the scoring talent means the Sabres can play a third line that can score like many teams’ second line. The matchups this creates is a good thing.

If Krebs ends up as a long term 4C the Sabres C spine will be in great shape.