Power and Mittelstadt Extensions Next?

[Broken Ankles]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

The cap is projected to take a couple large jumps in coming years, but I doubt that it reaches 100M by 2027.

Even if it did, Power would basically need to have established himself as no doubt one of the top 5 Defensemen in the NHL in order to get a 12% cap hit type of contract.  There are currently only 3 Defensemen who have contracts with 12% cap hit at the time of signing.

The situation you lay out is like a 1% probability type of scenario.

There are only 3 active because teams are locking up young D after their EL contract ends (Fox, McAvoy, Makar).  All of those contracts would be larger if they bridged. Go back ten years and see there are many, many  examples. Chara, Lidstrom, Boyle, Campbell, Jovanosky, Subban, Suter, Weber, Pronger to name a few.  Some of these are 15-17% And dozens more where it’s 10.5%of the cap.  In 4 years (my scenario) Power will be full prime, and a top 5 D in the league, which would warrant $12m.  The $100m is realistic.  After the $1B from Covid loss is finalized this year, they are talking of it jumping to $92m by 2025. So $100m is probable in 2027 if this conservative estimate for 2025 manifests. your dismissal of this happens at 1% is wrong.  Let’s both hope that he doesn’t sign a three year bridge. 

https://theathletic.com/4590229/2023/06/08/nhl-salary-cap-increase/?amp=1

[French Collection]

So far KA’s long term contracts have been fair, even leaning towards team friendly. We shall see what Dahlin gets but my guess is like most, 8x$10M. This, imho, would be another fair deal. Rasmus could play hardball and get close to $12M.

It is his team and there is a good chance he gets the C to go along with the biggest deal once KO is gone.

Power’s ceiling is Norris contender but Dahlin will get there first and anchor PP1 which means he will get the lion’s share of points for Dmen. Points are still the biggest factor in Norris voting and that may hold Power back.
Power could fit into the Pronger, Doughty category where not just points but possession, physical play and defensive dominance gets him some serious consideration. The other thing that can happen is an injury to Dahlin where Power takes over PP1 and gets a pile of points.

I can see a scenario where no one makes more than Dahlin, even with the cap going up. It can be an artificial ceiling for a few contracts, that players abide by, to build a contending team. Eventually, someone will pass that amount and it could be Power.

I want to see these guys get fairly compensated but keep the big picture in view. You can have more good players and championship runs if the almighty dollar is not the ultimate goal.

I will once again use the Leafs as the poster team for giving max $$ to a few and finding scraps to fill in the rest.

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

There are only 3 active because teams are locking up young D after their EL contract ends (Fox, McAvoy, Makar).  All of those contracts would be larger if they bridged. Go back ten years and see there are many, many  examples. Chara, Lidstrom, Boyle, Campbell, Jovanosky, Subban, Suter, Weber, Pronger to name a few.  Some of these are 15-17% And dozens more where it’s 10.5%of the cap.  In 4 years (my scenario) Power will be full prime, and a top 5 D in the league, which would warrant $12m.  The $100m is realistic.  After the $1B from Covid loss is finalized this year, they are talking of it jumping to $92m by 2025. So $100m is probable in 2027 if this conservative estimate for 2025 manifests. your dismissal of this happens at 1% is wrong.  Let’s both hope that he doesn’t sign a three year bridge. 

https://theathletic.com/4590229/2023/06/08/nhl-salary-cap-increase/?amp=1

There have never been more than 4 D at any given time with cap hits of 12%+ at the time of signing.  I’m sure Power will be very good, but I doubt he will be so good that he earns that contract.  It’s possible, but I doubt it.

The cap is projected to take a couple big jumps starting with the 2024-25 season as a kind of “catch up” but I doubt that it takes a big jump in 4 consecutive years and increases by $16M+ in 4 years.  It could be close to that though.

Basically I doubt either of those two things happen, although both are possible.  As a result, I think the chances that BOTH of those things happen is extremely small.

I think a projection of a roughly 10%, $10M long term contract for for Power following a hypothetical 3 year bridge, with the cap at or near $100, is a lot more realistic.

[Brawndo]

 Yep 

[LGR4GM]

maybe we should keep the guy who can pass to our shooters as well as *checks notes* Leon Draisaitl.

 

[dudacek]

I so want this kid to have a career that reflects what he did this year.

He’s like Tage to me in the sense that he was horribly mishandled under Botterill and ***** on for years by the fans, and yet has just put his head down, didn’t act entitled about anything, kept plugging away, and turned himself into a hockey player.

So easy to root for. 

Edited June 14, 2023 by dudacek

[French Collection]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I so want this kid to have a career that reflects what he did this year.

He’s like Tage to me in the sense that he was horribly mishandled under Botterill and ***** on for years by the fans, and yet has just put his head down, didn’t act entitled about anything, kept plugging away, and turned himself into a hockey player.

So easy to root for. 

And Dahlin’s buddy.

Maybe he takes another developmental bump this year and we see what his ceiling is.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I so want this kid to have a career that reflects what he did this year.

He’s like Tage to me in the sense that he was horribly mishandled under Botterill and ***** on for years by the fans, and yet has just put his head down, didn’t act entitled about anything, kept plugging away, and turned himself into a hockey player.

So easy to root for. 

I almost have a hard time talking about Tage, because I feel guilty about all of that. The guy is too good for me to be allowed to root for him

[Flashsabre]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

maybe we should keep the guy who can pass to our shooters as well as *checks notes* Leon Draisaitl.

 

But he’s not 6’3 with blazing speed and he doesn’t drop the gloves so what value could he possibly have?😜

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I so want this kid to have a career that reflects what he did this year.

He’s like Tage to me in the sense that he was horribly mishandled under Botterill and ***** on for years by the fans, and yet has just put his head down, didn’t act entitled about anything, kept plugging away, and turned himself into a hockey player.

So easy to root for. 

I’m on record as saying that all that misused, badly developed stuff is garbage do I’m not going to change now. In my mind, Casey decided to grow up and matured both physically and mentally. I’ll admit, I’m surprised  but I’m ecstatic as well. Casey turning into the guy he was hyped to be could put this team over the top. They’ll have some hard decisions to make but it’s going to be fun.

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’m on record as saying that all that misused, badly developed stuff is garbage do I’m not going to change now. In my mind, Casey decided to grow up and matured both physically and mentally. I’ll admit, I’m surprised  but I’m ecstatic as well. Casey turning into the guy he was hyped to be could put this team over the top. They’ll have some hard decisions to make but it’s going to be fun.

Do you not think he was set up to fail by being forced into the lineup as Ryan O’Reilly’s replacement at age 20, then marginalized by Ralph Krueger?

[tom webster]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Do you not think he was set up to fail by being forced into the lineup as Ryan O’Reilly’s replacement at age 20, then marginalized by Ralph Krueger?

No, I think he wasn’t ready for the role at 20 but my contention is that it had little to do with his career path. Maybe, if he was forced to play in Rochester then he would have grown up sooner, but probably not.
Ralph Krueger I have no explanation for but again, I see no part in Casey’s development. 

[Zamboni]

3 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

But he’s not 6’3 with blazing speed and he doesn’t drop the gloves so what value could he possibly have?😜

You’re sounding like a couple fans I know 😂

[Doohicksie]

Another reason Casey Isa stud.

[Buffalonill]

On 6/14/2023 at 5:25 PM, dudacek said:

I so want this kid to have a career that reflects what he did this year.

He’s like Tage to me in the sense that he was horribly mishandled under Botterill and ***** on for years by the fans, and yet has just put his head down, didn’t act entitled about anything, kept plugging away, and turned himself into a hockey player.

So easy to root for. 

Did Botterill make him a gamer? Lol he grew up thats what happened 

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Another reason Casey Isa stud.

I haven’t looked into the numbers, but I’m pretty sure most of Casey’s PK work happened early in the year. My memory tells me that he lost his job there and down the stretch he wasn’t being used in that role at all.

Edit:  nhl.Com says he was 11th in Sabre forwards last season, averaging 20 seconds per game SH. After March 1 he played 13 seconds - not 13 per game, but 13 seconds total.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=timeonice&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20222023&seasonTo=20222023&gameType=2&position=F&playerPlayedFor=franchise.19&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shTimeOnIcePerGame&page=0&pageSize=50

Edited June 20, 2023 by dudacek

[Curt]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I haven’t looked into the numbers, but I’m pretty sure most of Casey’s PK work happened early in the year. My memory tells me that he lost his job there and down the stretch he wasn’t being used in that role at all.

Edit:  nhl.Com says he was 11th in Sabre forwards last season, averaging 20 seconds per game SH. After March 1 he played 13 seconds - not 13 per game, but 13 seconds total.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=timeonice&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20222023&seasonTo=20222023&gameType=2&position=F&playerPlayedFor=franchise.19&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shTimeOnIcePerGame&page=0&pageSize=50

Good catch.  What the heck is Chad tweeting this out for?

20 seconds per game?  28 mins total for the season?  It’s a pointlessly small sample size.

To be fair, all small samples, but Mitts had had good PK numbers for 3 seasons running.  Would they hold up if he was actually a consistent part of the PK unit?  I have no idea.

[French Collection]

39 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Another reason Casey Isa stud.

Would have never thought he was a good PKer.

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

Good catch.  What the heck is Chad tweeting this out for?

20 seconds per game?  28 mins total for the season?  It’s a pointlessly small sample size.

To be fair, all small samples, but Mitts had had good PK numbers for 3 seasons running.  Would they hold up if he was actually a consistent part of the PK unit?  I have no idea.

Maybe that's where he's headed, that the team should be using him more?

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Maybe that's where he's headed, that the team should be using him more?

Very hard to say, because he came off the PK right about the same time that Comrie got injured and the goaltending went kerplewy.  That also occurred (slightly) before Mitts line started gettting 3rd line usage vs the 2nd line usage they'd started the year with.

So, expect they took him off the PK to let him focus on improving his 5v5 play.  Would they bring him back to that role?  Who knows.

Before answering that, would need to have the coaches answer the question of was Mitts good on the PK because the goaltending was reasonably good and the D hadn't been decimated or was it because he was actually good on the PK.  Thought he was pretty good there, but as others have stated, it was a very small sample and again he was a part of the PK when the goaltending and D hadn't gone through the injury wringer.

[Taro T]

And, would add, if Greenway and Mitts are regular linemates, expect there's a greater chance that Mitts ends up on the PK than if they don't.  Expecting Greenway to be one of the usual 4 PK F's.

[dudacek]

26 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And, would add, if Greenway and Mitts are regular linemates, expect there's a greater chance that Mitts ends up on the PK than if they don't.  Expecting Greenway to be one of the usual 4 PK F's.

I know people are hardwired to want Cozens with Quinn and Peterka, and that might be the best option.

But a Mitts Cozens Greenway line could play against anyone and might result in 40 goals for Dylan.

[French Collection]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I know people are hardwired to want Cozens with Quinn and Peterka, and that might be the best option.

But a Mitts Cozens Greenway line could play against anyone and might result in 40 goals for Dylan.

I have had thoughts of breaking up the kid line as well.

My reasoning is that a 3rd line with Mitts and Krebs together may not work at all as they are both pass first guys.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I know people are hardwired to want Cozens with Quinn and Peterka, and that might be the best option.

But a Mitts Cozens Greenway line could play against anyone and might result in 40 goals for Dylan.

Expect we'll see a lot of "interesting" combos this September as Granato sees if he can come up with some new permutations that are greater than the whole of STT, QCP, MKG, 4th line.  Will be really interesting to see if any of them stick.  They could stack lines or they could set up with at least the top 3 lines (and possibly all 4) having a forechecker, playmaker, and finisher on it.  With several guys like Tuch and Cozens being able to double into more than just one of those roles.

Am in no rush for it to be October, it'll be here soon enough, but am very interested in seeing what gets put together come October.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, French Collection said:

I have had thoughts of breaking up the kid line as well.

My reasoning is that a 3rd line with Mitts and Krebs together may not work at all as they are both pass first guys.

The other option that might work chemistry-wise is keeping Krebs with Okposo and sliding Savoie in between Mitts and Greenway.

But I don' tthink Savoie is ready for that.