Power and Mittelstadt Extensions Next?

[Doohicksie]

On 6/9/2023 at 4:09 PM, pastajoe said:

Sorry, I don’t trust him to be consistent. He cant hold down a position at center and gets knocked off the puck too often on the wings. I trade him while he still has value.

You haven't been paying attention.

• Mitts  was the 1C going into 2021-22; injury derailed that
• He was supplanted by Tage and Cozens as the top line Cs
• He's worked his ass off at his assignments which included an extended stint at 1C when Tage was hurt and the line played well
• Mitts is back and he's proven it

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I don’t know what the average salary for 3C league-wide, but 5.5MM (a speculated number to sign him for a few years) might not be the best use of funds from a cap management perspective (for a 3C). I could be wrong.
 

But with the depth the Sabres have in the pipeline at the center position…

I think his time as 1C shows that even if he is the regular 3C (or even a 3W), he is the depth the team needs at center to keep the team afloat in the event of an injury to Thompson or Cozens.  You can do that and not lose sleep over it.  You can't do that with Juri Kulich; not yet anyway, and he's probably a few years away from that level of maturity as a prospect.  Casey can do that now and for several years to come.  He's the kind of player that can step up in a tough situation; the Sabres are gonna need players like that come playoff time.

[Porous Five Hole]

16 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I think his time as 1C shows that even if he is the regular 3C (or even a 3W), he is the depth the team needs at center to keep the team afloat in the event of an injury to Thompson or Cozens.  You can do that and not lose sleep over it.  You can't do that with Juri Kulich; not yet anyway, and he's probably a few years away from that level of maturity as a prospect.  Casey can do that now and for several years to come.  He's the kind of player that can step up in a tough situation; the Sabres are gonna need players like that come playoff time.

So I’m on board with your line of thought…but what is the cost of a player like that?
The Sabres aren’t near the cap ceiling today, but is it worth it to commit (say 5.5MM for four years) for that role? It seems like an overpay based on his body of work.  Casey performed as the fifth best forward in 22-23 and maybe that role is a 5MM salary (and we can assume he can bank 60 pts a year), but I’m not convinced he’s that guy as a baseline for the next 4-5 years. It’s why I think he should be moved to strengthen the D corps. 
 

You good with 25MM over the next five years? I’m not. To me, Casey is not the same as Tage/Cozens in terms of investing early for the him long-term. He’s only been the fifth best forward on the team for approx 50 games. 
 

I guess I’m in the minority, but I’m moving him before I’m committing to him for the next 4+years. Not everyone is Tage in their ascension.  I want to save money at 3C given the pipeline and invest elsewhere. 

[SabresGuy87]

On 6/9/2023 at 8:46 AM, JohnC said:

Yes, he does have value to his team. That's an argument to keep him, not trade him. He has proven to be a versatile player who can play on the wing and center. He also has shown that he has the talent to move up to the top line and keep it playing at an exceptional level. Why would you want to deal this player that you developed and are now getting good production from?

Exactly! Trade Olofsson, he might only score 25+ goals and do nothing else but someone would be enticed with that production and give up something very decent in a package. Mitts finally showed what he can do in a full season and what he can do with good wingers when Tage Thompson was out. I'm not saying 7-8 years but 3-5 years is fair at good number like $5-6m and when they kids develop fully then you can move him for a decent return and keep the team churning out the next replacements

[Curt]

10 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I respect Casey’s growth. I am in the trade him boat. His value is as high as it has ever been (and still an RFA year after next season).  
 

I don’t know what the average salary for 3C league-wide, but 5.5MM (a speculated number to sign him for a few years) might not be the best use of funds from a cap management perspective (for a 3C). I could be wrong.
 

But with the depth the Sabres have in the pipeline at the center position…I think he is a prime candidate to be moved to help acquire a top four D. 

But what if he isn’t a 3C?  What if he is a guy who you can plug anywhere in your top 9 and puts up 55+ points per season?  What is that worth?

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, Doohickie said:

You haven't been paying attention.

• Mitts  was the 1C going into 2021-22; injury derailed that
• He was supplanted by Tage and Cozens as the top line Cs
• He's worked his ass off at his assignments which included an extended stint at 1C when Tage was hurt and the line played well
• Mitts is back and he's proven it

Don Granato has said it many times that Mitts was one of the best players in the 2021 training camp. As you noted, he then got hurt and wasn't the same player that year. The coach knows what he's capable of and the value he has to the team. It's surprising that now that a player is playing to his potential there are people who want to deal him off. 

[LGR4GM]

51 minutes ago, Curt said:

But what if he isn’t a 3C?  What if he is a guy who you can plug anywhere in your top 9 and puts up 55+ points per season?  What is that worth?

This is the thing with Mitts. You can play him in 6 of the top 9 forward spots, maybe 5 (I don't truly think he is a good 1c for a long period of time but that's an aside) and he can produce. He is 6'1" 200lbs so he isn't slight and can handle himself against bigger players. His passing is quite good, he has above average edges, he has some manipulation in his rush and zone patterns. He's really the perfect middle 6 player. He only overlaps with Jordan Greenway for 1 year so you could conceivable give him a 4yr, 5.5mil extension and basically just use the savings from when Greenway (3mil) comes off to accomplish that. I might go 5 years with Mitts but that would probably be my limit. I like him but I don't love him and there is a lot of talent coming behind. 

Also, his buddy is your #1 defender so paying a little to keep one of his friends around, especially a useful friend, doesn't hurt anything. 

[Hank]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is the thing with Mitts. You can play him in 6 of the top 9 forward spots, maybe 5 (I don't truly think he is a good 1c for a long period of time but that's an aside) and he can produce. He is 6'1" 200lbs so he isn't slight and can handle himself against bigger players. His passing is quite good, he has above average edges, he has some manipulation in his rush and zone patterns. He's really the perfect middle 6 player. He only overlaps with Jordan Greenway for 1 year so you could conceivable give him a 4yr, 5.5mil extension and basically just use the savings from when Greenway (3mil) comes off to accomplish that. I might go 5 years with Mitts but that would probably be my limit. I like him but I don't love him and there is a lot of talent coming behind. 

Also, his buddy is your #1 defender so paying a little to keep one of his friends around, especially a useful friend, doesn't hurt anything. 

Well said. 

[pastajoe]

14 hours ago, Sabres73 said:

Seems like pretty much everyone else disagrees with you.

I don’t base my opinions on polls, I base it on my observations. He’s yet to prove he can be consistent. I’m not willing to wait and find out. But it’s not our decision to make.

[Sabres73]

4 hours ago, pastajoe said:

I don’t base my opinions on polls, I base it on my observations. He’s yet to prove he can be consistent. I’m not willing to wait and find out. But it’s not our decision to make.

Just like everyone else, but when you're in the vast minority you may want to consider that other peoples opinions.

[Porous Five Hole]

10 hours ago, Curt said:

But what if he isn’t a 3C?  What if he is a guy who you can plug anywhere in your top 9 and puts up 55+ points per season?  What is that worth?

Hopefully a top 4 D on the open market!
 

A lot of people are putting a lot of faith in Casey’s last 50 games like it is his new baseline. I’m not ready to do that. 

[Doohicksie]

32 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Hopefully a top 4 D on the open market!
 

A lot of people are putting a lot of faith in Casey’s last 50 games like it is his new baseline. I’m not ready to do that. 

That's pretty much what they did with Tage and Cozens... paid them based on a limited body of work and not all that much more than 50 games.

And really, it's not just 50 games.  He had earned the 1C coming out of camp in 2021; it was only injury that held him back.  But he was "that good" back then as well.  He's been running at a 50 points per 82 games pace for three years now, including the time when he was playing injured/recovering.  It's not like he came out of nowhere (like Tage did).

Edited June 12, 2023 by Doohickie

[Porous Five Hole]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

That's pretty much what they did with Tage and Cozens... paid them based on a limited body of work and not all that much more than 50 games.

And really, it's not just 50 games.  He had earned the 1C coming out of camp in 2021; it was only injury that held him back.  But he was "that good" back then as well.  He's been running at a 50 points per 82 games pace for three years now, including the time when he was playing injured/recovering.  It's not like he came out of nowhere (like Tage did).

You’ll notice my post history includes that very fact I highlighted about 2021. I said that he must look at Tage and say to himself, “that should have been me.”

Yes, Buffalo locked up Tage and Cozens early, but each were a different situation and I hope most see that without explanation.

But I will pass along that I am not seeing the stats you’re seeing for Casey’s two previous seasons…The year ending 22: 19 pts in 40 games (and a -14!). That isn’t a 50 pt pace. 
The year ending in 21: 22pts in 41 games. That isn’t a 50 pt pace. And spare me the “he was hurt.” Maybe he was, but he was a 40 pt guy for his age 23 and age 24 seasons (he turns 25 in November). 
 

I’m not going to go back to Mitts threads and find all the folks who pooped on the guy and seem to love him now.
 

I’m glad he had a great last 50 games. I see recency bias and a heck of a half a season. If I were the GM and at this point, I’m not investing 5.5MM on this player.

[pastajoe]

4 hours ago, Sabres73 said:

Just like everyone else, but when you're in the vast minority you may want to consider that other peoples opinions.

A few people on a chat site are hardly the vast majority of Sabres fans. I considered and find them overly optimistic. I look at the entirety of his career and the fact he’s never been able to drive a line or hold onto a center position. If some other team overvalues him then it’s time to move him before he asks for a big contract and acquire defensive talent..

[Zamboni]

33 minutes ago, pastajoe said:

A few people on a chat site are hardly the vast majority of Sabres fans. 

This fact gets lost on a lot of people 😂

regsrdless of the topic, subject, or discussion.

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

But I will pass along that I am not seeing the stats you’re seeing for Casey’s two previous seasons…The year ending 22: 19 pts in 40 games (and a -14!). That isn’t a 50 pt pace. 
The year ending in 21: 22pts in 41 games. That isn’t a 50 pt pace. And spare me the “he was hurt.”

Last three seasons combined:

22 + 19 + 59 = 100 points
41 + 40 + 82 = 163 games
100 points / 163 games = 0.613 PPG
0.613 points/game x 82 games/season = 50.31 points/82 game season 

Over the last three seasons he's been playing at a 50 points/82 game season pace overall.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Doohickie

[Porous Five Hole]

Just now, Doohickie said:

Last three seasons combined:

22 + 19 + 59 = 100 points
41 + 40 + 82 = 163 games
100 points / 163 games = 0.613 PPG
0.613 points/game x 82 games/season = 50.31 points/season 

Over the last three seasons he's been playing at a 50 points/season pace overall.

Ok but why average the three seasons as the last season was an outlier from his previous career to date? He was never more than a 40 pt producer until last season…

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, pastajoe said:

A few people on a chat site are hardly the vast majority of Sabres fans. I considered and find them overly optimistic. I look at the entirety of his career and the fact he’s never been able to drive a line or hold onto a center position. If some other team overvalues him then it’s time to move him before he asks for a big contract and acquire defensive talent..

IMHO, the key to moving Mittlestadt is if a team overvalues him to trade us something clearly better, such as a low-end 1st pair RHD.  Assuming that this does not happen, I like having a 3rd liner who did not look out of place on a higher line -- although more evidence of his performance there would be preferable.  A few of these players are necessary for a team that aspires to winning the Cup.  In fact, you really want your 3rd liners to all be capable to be 2nd liners.  For the moment, he qualifies.

[Doohicksie]

Just now, Porous Five Hole said:

Ok but why average the three seasons as the last season was an outlier from his previous career to date? He was never more than a 40 pt producer until last season…

That's under Ralph Krueger the first year, dealing with injuries the second year, and finally playing a full season in a decent system with a good coach the third year.  Even with the ***** circumstances of the first two years, he's managed to average 50 points per 82 game season over the 3-season run.  You're saying the this came out of the blue.  I'm saying even under terrible circumstances he produced at a reasonable rate.  It's NOT just a 50 stretch which is your contention.

He's produced at a more consistent pace over the last three seasons than Tage did in the three seasons leading up to his big extension.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

That's under Ralph Krueger the first year, dealing with injuries the second year, and finally playing a full season in a decent system with a good coach the third year.  Even with the ***** circumstances of the first two years, he's managed to average 50 points per 82 game season over the 3-season run.  You're saying the this came out of the blue.  I'm saying even under terrible circumstances he produced at a reasonable rate.  It's NOT just a 50 stretch which is your contention.

I think you should be Casey’s agent lol

I guess we won’t meet in the middle on this one. I believe this year was an outlier (especially 17 points in his last 11 games of 2023). You’ve made the case he’s been consistent and I don’t buy your averaging. But that’s alright…I’ll still enjoy your goal memes and you can tolerate my lack of buy in on this. 

[Porous Five Hole]

6 minutes ago, Marvin said:

IMHO, the key to moving Mittlestadt is if a team overvalues him to trade us something clearly better, such as a low-end 1st pair RHD.  Assuming that this does not happen, I like having a 3rd liner who did not look out of place on a higher line -- although more evidence of his performance there would be preferable.  A few of these players are necessary for a team that aspires to winning the Cup.  In fact, you really want your 3rd liners to all be capable to be 2nd liners.  For the moment, he qualifies.

Totally agree with this.
My resistance to everything upthread is I would prefer to not sign him to an extension at this time. I think other players in the pipeline can rival this production in time. And if he is a piece that can land a top four D, then sign me up. To me, Casey’s PPG and attributes are more easily replaceable than a top four D…which this team sorely needs. 
 

And if Casey doesn’t help acquire defensive help this off-season, then I hope he can repeat 2022-23 production. If he does, then pay the man his money. 

[Doohicksie]

7 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

You’ve made the case he’s been consistent and I don’t buy your averaging.

One measure of consistency is deviation.  The standard deviation Points per Game of Tage's 3 pre-contract seasons was 3.5 times that of Mitts.

The management gave Tage the big contract based on 1 single big year, with basically only that year with any production at all, really.  I'm saying ignore your hangup on Casey's "last 50 games".  Count the whole season.  Count his last 3 seasons.  He's been more consistent than Tage.

 

[Porous Five Hole]

3 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

One measure of consistency is deviation.  The standard deviation Points per Game of Tage's 3 pre-contract seasons was 3.5 times that of Mitts.

The management gave Tage the big contract based on 1 single big year, with basically only that year with any production at all, really.  I'm saying ignore your hangup on Casey's "last 50 games".  Count the whole season.  Count his last 3 seasons.  He's been more consistent than Tage.

 

If we are going to base every future contract offer based on the comparison of the meteoric rise that is the unicorn of Tage…then I think you’re gonna have a bad time. 

I did count his last three seasons. He was a 40 pt player for two of the three. I think I’m good here. 🍻

Edited June 13, 2023 by Porous Five Hole

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Totally agree with this.
My resistance to everything upthread is I would prefer to not sign him to an extension at this time. I think other players in the pipeline can rival this production in time. And if he is a piece that can land a top four D, then sign me up. To me, Casey’s PPG and attributes are more easily replaceable than a top four D…which this team sorely needs. 
 

And if Casey doesn’t help acquire defensive help this off-season, then I hope he can repeat 2022-23 production. If he does, then pay the man his money. 

In time, sure.  But they are trying to make the playoffs this coming year.   Any sophomore slump from Frick or Frack or Greenway not fitting in and the F cupboard starts getting thin if Mittelstadt is gone.

They can get that top 4 D-man via FA.  IF they can convert him into something really good on D or in net that they can't get otherwise; fine.  But they already are likely moving on from a 28 goal scorer.  Not sure that it makes sense to move on from a guy that got upper 50's last year along with him.

[Doohicksie]

In the end, we're not that far apart.  I'm not saying pay Casey $10 million for 8 years.  I'd like to see him get a 4-5 year extension.  How much?  I don't know.  Whatever Kevyn can talk his agent into.  $5.5 million has been tossed around; I think that is the max he might get.  You could pay him $5 million per year and it would be 2X his previous contract.  I wouldn't mind a raise like that.